The other side of the collapse

As a fan base that as been on the losing side of second half collapses, it's great to be on the winning side of one. Pulling it off in Iowa City is a nice touch.

Winning 4 of 6 at Kinnick is also insane, considering ISU has lost every El Assico in Ames since 2011. Hate it when that happens.

Enjoy your glass of GoBla tears.

The Usual

 Iowa State will outgain and outplay SUI, but will make a creative mistake that will hand the game to the GoBlas. 

Just like every year. 

16-13 SUI. 

Looks

 New B12 member Arizona State looked good in Gold/Maroon/Gold against Wyoming:

Minnesota had fun with a Maroon/Gold/Maroon combo:

Southern Cal won in their always classic kit:

Iowa State broke out new jerseys to go with their favorite white pants:

Wait, we are being told that's Rutgers. Here's Iowa State:

Sorry, we saw Red/White and just assumed. Is this Iowa State?

Still can't tell the difference, but we are stuck with the Rutgers-inspired Red/White/Black scheme for the next 5 years.

A missed opportunity.

Steps

Another season opener, another underwhelming result, another typical September game for the CMC regime.

The start couldn't have been better. Two deep balls against a defence that was stacking the box is to be applauded. Bravo.

The offense was a little herky-jerky, but we suspect UND was determined not to lose the game on the ground. The offensive line isn't ready to win situations like that.

But enough questions remain on defense and the offensive line to limit the upside of this group. A solid but uninspiring squad. 7 wins is still our guess.

It's wild that CMC has 5 wins against OU and Texa$ combined, but only 1 against the GoBlas.

Our Cyclone nutcup stands ready to help witness another new and awful way to lose to SUI. Have plenty of your favorite beverage on stand by. It will be needed.

Visions

 2024 Iowa State football forecast:

Probable wins: North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, Cincy

Probable losses: Utah, Kansas, Kansas State

Guaranteed self-inflicted loss: SUI

Random coulda-shoulda-won-but-didn't-play-well loss: Pick one from: West Virginia, Central Florida, Tech.

That brings us to 7-5. We hope its better than that, but this program still has wiiiiiide variance between its best and worst games. Nothing can be assumed. More than 3 wins that aren't white-knuckle rides to the end would be a surprise.

Any playoff talk is madness without an 8-0 start. Save your breath. Enjoy the ride.

Best Trice Wins Seen In Person

A warm summer night is the perfect time to jump on the Cyclone Twitter trending topic: 5 Best Jack Trice Games you saw in person.

Here is ours in order of witness:

1981 Iowa State 23 SUI 12 

Iowa's first game in Ames since 1934. (When the series resumed in 1977, SUI required the Cyclones to drive to Iowa City four times before they would come to Ames. Jerks.) Ames was electric. Hillside seats on the NW corner were Nirvana for a group of teenage Cyclone fans. A core memory.

1992 Iowa State 19 Nebraska 10 (aka the Marv Seiler Game) 

The unexpected wins are the most fun. An 8-1 Cornhusker team came to Ames on a roll, but couldn't get anything together against a pesky Cyclone defense. Marv only needed on big play to ice the win. You could hear the shock in Pete Taylor's voice on the radio call.

2005 Iowa State 23, SUI 3

An SUI squad ranked #8 came into Ames and almost got shut out by the Cyclones. The game essentially ended in the 2nd quarter when an GoBla QB concussed himself by tackling a safety after an INT. Perhaps ISU's most dominant win over SUI behind the 31-0 win in 1978. A fun day.

2017 Iowa State 14 TCU 7

A white-knuckle ride for the resurgent Cyclones over #4 TCU. 5-2, and on a 3 - game wining streak, the Cyclones went up 14-0 in the first half. TCU returned the 2nd half kickoff for a TD, but ISU held the Frogs to 157 yards and no points on their last 7 possessions, including 3 turnovers to seal the win. ISU broke a 7 game win streak for TCU, became bowl eligible in CMC's 2nd season, and moved into a tie for first place in the Big 12. It was a hug-random-strangers kind of win. The win in Norman wasn't a fluke.

2018 ISU 42 KSU 38

Down 17 with 12:27 left in the 4th, Brock Purdy led three scoring drives to end Bill Snyder's coaching career. The win tied ISU's biggest 4th quarter comeback win in it's history. While a win over #6 West Virginia a month earlier was a dominant win, sending Snyder out the way they did was more satisfying.

Missed opportunities

 The Gophers revamped their football uniforms for 2024, and they are a big upgrade:

Lots of Gold, no white numbers. Big improvement.

2023 Home look for reference:

Looking like a maroon Rutgers.

Mizzou continues to have the perfect set:

Full kits of both team colors, a white kit, lots of sharp helmets. Best of all, the stripes on the helmets, jerseys and pants all match. You can mix all three kits. Outstanding.

Our only complaint is the white numbers on the black jerseys, so the grade is only 95/100.

Iowa State, however, is going backwards.

"Hey, Nike- what's your stock look for this season? Great! And remove all the gold you can. We want to look as much like Rutgers as possible."

Aim kinda medium, folks. Kinda medium. Stock is fine.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Uniform chat on a silly day

 So. 

Athletics tweeted this image out on April Fool's Day:

It was part of this tweet:

We know, it's AFD, but let's play a long that it's real.

In our opinion, it's a step backwards.

If anything, it further relegates Gold to an accent color only. Are we headed back to the early McCarney era?

Basically cardinal and white. Very Cheifs-like. I'm told some schools have found big uniform success copying wining NFL programs, so I understand the urge.

If we are going to abandon Gold in the football program, so it goes. At least the sleeve stripes will seem intentional. The recent jersey stripes were just- there. If you saw them at all.

When you use Gold as a secondary color rather than an accent, you can do things like this beaut from 1979:

The gold numbers work with the pants, the cardinal helmets work with the jerseys. The road combo was great, too.

Bringing back Gold would put this back on the table:

Or this:

(Still the best ISU look in our lifetimes. Full Stop.)

Two great road looks, too.

For your consideration- Gold helmet, Cardinal jersey (in this example, maroon), Gold numbers, Gold pants:

Isn't that snappy?

I can hear someone yelling in the back: "The Paul Rhoads uniforms looked like USC!"

True.

But the Iowa State uniforms minus Gold look like Indiana.

And Rutgers.

Is that the look you are going for? Really?

Or shall we look like this? 

It's a simple choice. More Gold, not less.

Wins and Losses

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get beat.

We were impressed with the defensive effort from Illinois in the first half, which was uncharacteristic and never let Iowa State find a rhythm or get open looks. Even though the Cyclones cut the 10 point halftime lead to four early in the second half, the game never got closer than 2 points. Opportunities were missed, but Illinois kept making plays. Had they made a decent number of free throws, the game is never closer than 10. So it goes.

The season as a whole was a roaring success. A second place finish in the best league is a quality season. A fantastic run through the B12 tourney was a joy to watch. The standards for the program continue to be raised.

Now we wait to see how the roster shifts in the next three weeks, and look ahead to next season. 

2023-24 was a fantastic ride. Thanks everyone. 

A Habit of 16

 Twice in 3 years.

Fourth in a decade.

Six Iowa State coaches have gone to the Sweet 16. Otz is the only one to do it twice.

We are seeing the rare become common, be we shouldn’t assume this trip is ever to be expected. So many random things can get in the way.

Celebrate. Enjoy the ride. Even if it feels habit forming, you never know when it will return.

The view from the bottom of the hill

Our Cyclones went to Kansas City with a challenging draw- games against teams that had already beaten them. Yet they found a way to win each game comfortably.

Now they face a trip to Omaha with a challenging draw. (A faceplant against Drake would be an appropriate retribution for refusing to play Drake and Northern Iowa.) The draw is what makes the tournament fun- and it can't be truly evaluated beforehand, only after. But if the path is up the rough side of the mountain, so be it.

We have seen our Cyclones win several games even when the offense seemed lost, tired, distracted. Those are good experiences to have in one's pocket, to refer to when you find yourself in a challenging moment. Find a way, and play whoever is next.

Go drink Omaha out of beer.

Closers

A team that pulls a game out of the fire late might have gotten lucky.

The team that finds a way, night after night, might be good.

For the record, the CSJ staff loves the style of basketball that BYU plays. It is the perfect antidote to what Iowa State wants to do on defense. As long as they don’t give the ball away early in the possession, they should find an open 3 or a back cut into the lane. It’s beautiful basketball, and will be a challenge for the Cyclones every night out.

The last 15 minutes were a clinic of defensive adjustments and effort, and wrapped the first perfect home slate since Tinsley was at point. Been a while- but only because of what this team does on defense.

Here’s hoping they continue closing.

Levels

While it was often ugly to watch, our Cyclones played high level basketball in Houston Monday night.

The difficult start could have frazzled the team and resulted in a blowout. Instead, they scored 1.13 points per possession against the best defense in basket across the final 30 minutes. 

Unlike last season, the Cyclones will be able to score on just about every team in the tournament. While the trip to Houston didn’t deliver a win, the Cyclones came home with the confidence that they are ready for any stage.

Game On.

Data

The stats nerds are telling us that teams that make deep runs in March do things that are similar to the things that Iowa State does on the court.

It’s not that they are winning games- it’s that they are winning games by 10, and keeping the opponent at arms length for long stretches. Our Cyclone eyes aren’t used to seeing that.

Lots of doors are still open for this team. Enjoy the ride- it’s been a long wait. 

Difficulty

The average college basketball fan doesn’t realize the difficulty of maintaining a first half lead. A lot can happen in the final 50 or 60 possessions. 

Iowa State answered each of TCU’s runs today, and actually built the lead when Lipsey sat for 10 minutes in the first half. That’s a real luxury. 

A solid home win over a solid Big 12 team. Take care of business when you can.

Capacity

 It appears that when the Cyclones are playing well they can play very, very well, and on the road to boot.

The first 30ish minutes of the game in Austin speaks to upside Iowa State basketball hasn’t had in a while. It’s fun to witness again. 

I love a team that can run a simple pick and roll in crunch time for a dunk. That’s a good tool for the toolbox.

Doors are still open for this team. Here’s hoping we can walk through several of them. 

Freebies

 Saturday’s loss in Waco was a wild one- big offensive runs, a coach gets ejected, an angry crowd, both teams making plays and terrible mistakes, and a buzzer beater that doesn’t. But the game swung on the freebies.

With a final result that was wafer-thin, any little play could have been the difference. 11 missed free thrown are the obvious target, but so are a half-dozen missed inside shots that were rushed and errant passes that came from trying to do too much.

Now on to Austin, where a similar challenge awaits. One can never have too many tiebreakers in their pocket.

Fun With Camera Angles

So- Baylor opened a new gym this season! And lots of fans have lots of comments and about the camera angles from the center court position. The angle is- steep:

For comparison, notice where the hoop is compared to the old gym Baylor used:

The old gym camera angles placed the hoop on the bench, which is a more 'modern' placement. compare to Hilton:

The camera is lower and closer to the court than Baylor's old place, but the hoop is on the bench and further from the baseline.

Baylor's new angle is actually closer to Phog Allen than Hilton:

Similar to Cameron Indoor, too:

But it has a ways to go to be the angle at Gallagher-Iba before it was expanded in 2000:

(That's Fred Hoiberg guarding at the top of the key. Good times.)

Notice how close the hoop is to the edge of the lane! The game camera had to zoom out when play came to mid-court, the zoom in again at either end. You can watch the whole second half HERE.

Here is the current angle from GIA:

The angle is flatter than the old configuration, (similar to Cameron), and I suspect more in line with "normal".

Below is what I consider the most ridiculous camera angle I've seen in a game- Indiana's Assembly Hall in the 1980's:

The camera was even horizontally with the hoop! While it had a fun "sitting in the 10th row" feel, players often got clustered together visually (or blocked by a ref, as in the above example).

Above is the current camera angle. It's a bit on the steep side, but you can see what's going on.

To review- Baylor's angle is weird to modern eyes because it is closer to how things used to be. Revel in the retro feel!

Key Wins Equal Key Week

 Iowa State rode Hilton to two wins over KSU and KU, which keeps doors open for opportunity later in the year.

The Cyclones are still in play for: 

- A Regular Season Big 12 Championship, which they haven't won since 2001.

- A double buy in the now 14-team Big 12 Tournament. Fresh legs on Thursday.

- A friendly seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State is +1 in the old Tim Floyd rankings. 

With roadies to Baylor and Texa$ this week, they are playing with house money. An 0-2 week isn't a deal-breaker, but even one win keeps all of the above doors open. 

Go be great.

Double Dingers

Back-to-back nights of wild basketball wins in Hilton reminds us how fun Iowa State basketball can be on cold, snowy winter nights.

#2 Houston? Welcome to the Big 12. 

Ranked West Virginia with a new coach and roster? No lead is safe when the 3s start falling.

Buckle up everyone. This could be great ride.

Gameplans

Unfortunately, our concerns were correct.

The lesson from the last 9 games for the offense was to pass first, then run after the defense starts retreating to cover receivers. 

But watching Memphis tape for three weeks convinced the offensive staff they could run when and where they wanted. They were quite incorrect.

A more aggressive, pass first plan may have allowed Rocco Brecht to throw for 700 yards and ISU probably finds a way to win. The dream of an above average offensive line that can run the ball still eludes the Cyclones.

Credit to Memphis- they saw a game against a Power 5 team as the opportunity that it was and maximized it. They would be a fun member of whatever league Iowa State ends up in after the next round of conference realignment. 

The city of Memphis is still the best bowl destination for Cyclone fans despite the weather. 90 percent of the fan base can drive in, hotels are reasonable, and everyone can congregate on Beale Street. Give us game day weather that isn't in the 30's and its perfect.

Given where we were emotionally on September 17th, this season was an unqualified success.

On to basketball.

Opportunity

From our reading of the season stats, Memphis looks like Kansas on offense, but Cincy on defense. Contrast.

Hopefully the offensive staff pulls out the play sheets from the Kansas State and BYU games and keeps the Memphis defense honest by throwing the ball. If the staff over thinks things and focuses only on running the ball, they might start with three 3-and-outs and find themselves down 17-0 in the first half.

Until the Iowa State defense shows that it can slow the Memphis offense, the offensive staff has to come in with an Arenaball mentality: TDs on every possession are mandatory. Barring another gonzo day from Sama, the mixed scheme looks like a winner.

Hopefully ISU finds a way for a 10 point win- but don't be surprised if our collective butts are puckered in the 4th.

Anger and Joy

The staff of CSJ spent their Turkey Days listening to many disgruntled Cyclone fans who were eager to complain about the missed opportunities in the loss to Texa$. 

We understand they were eager to send UT to the SEC with 4 losses in the last 6 meetings, but consider how far the program and fan base has come. It wasn't long ago that Iowa State lost their first 7 meetings, and had 1-11 and 2-14 records against Austin. Suddenly we expect to win each matchup.

Simply put, Texa$ is both running towards an SEC payday and running away from schools like TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State. Athletes that wear the burnt orange can make peace with losing to a equal like Oklahoma, but losing to the other members of "The Angry Eight" is not what they signed on for.

We suspect that within four years the Texa$ administration will be caught wooing other schools for The Super League in a chase for even more dollars and an avoidance of losses to schools like Mississippi State and Kentucky. They helped blow up the Southwest Conference, tried to blow the Big 12 up twice, and will do the same to the SEC. It's all they know.

But Texas doesn't know snow. 

The weather that our staff had hoped would greet the Longhorns in Ames appeared in Manhattan a week later, and assisted the Cyclones in one of the most ridiculous wins in team history. 

35 plays, 42 points, 5 TD plays of over 60 yards, and a running back totaling the 4th best game in program history in his first start.

The 6 inches of snow on the field make life difficult for defenders as they couldn't use their normal tackling form. Rather than coming in waist high and wrapping up, all they could do is try to tackle while standing up. It can be done, but it's hard. 

Iowa State allowed 35 points on 102 (!) K-State plays, but none of them were backbreakers. The KSU defense allowed nothing but back-breakers. Each missed tackle was 6 points. 

It's a game that ISU fans will discuss forever, and the CSJ staff regrets not attending in person, because it will soon be legendary. 

It's a fun boat to be sailing.

 

Leveling Up

One narrative from the B12 FB season has been the struggles of "The New Four" against the legacy B12 teams. As we write this, the group is 4-17, with a bunch of blowouts in the losses.

Iowa State handled BYU Saturday with even more ease compared to their win over Cincinnati last month. Each program may be tough outs in the future, but this year the group lacks the beef in the trenches to be competitive week after week.

Saturday's win was a fun ride from the Cyclone side of the field. We witnessed both long drives and big plays on 5 TD drives, and a stingy defense that surrendered only 14 points, while gaining an INT, 3 Over-On-Downs and 4 punts. A solid day all around.

The best news was an offensive play sheet that featured lots of misdirection and throws down the field. More, please. The aggressive passing game clearly opens up the run game. 

Now comes two tough match-ups: A Texas squad that has a shot at the playoff, a KSU team that has been scary good for most of the season. Win either and the bowl seed jumps. 

But being bowl-eligible going into the Texas game is a huge bonus. Just hang around until the 4th quarter and perhaps UT makes a fatal error on a cold Ames night.

Age

 A few mistakes and the inability to adjust to defensive surprises doomed our Cyclones against second-year upstart Kansas.

But the CSJ staff noticed a funny detail when comparing the respective rosters:

Iowa State has 21 Freshmen or Sophomores in the 44 player two-deep.

Kansas only has 6.

Experience overwhelmed youth in an otherwise even game. That will happen.

Hopefully our Cyclones won't be a slump-buster for BYU late Saturday night.

Sloppy Domination

 It's odd for Cyclone fans to watch a football game and come away from a win feeling that a blowout was left on the table. It's a fun feeling, but still odd.

Which brings us to November football games that matter. Win the game in front of you and doors remain open, doors that looked closed back in September.

Score 30 points against KU and the Cyclones probably win. Keep KU under 30 points and the Cyclones probably win. Goals. 

Enjoy the ride.

The Mighty 'Mo

 Dominating as a road dog is the best.

Three solid wins against teams in the same weight class has put a bounce in the step of the CSJ staff. Four more games in the weight class has made us cautiously optimistic the CMC and crew could place a 13th game on our calendars.

Scoring points is fun. Winning is fun, too.

Beware The Ames

 The best nicknames are thrust upon you.

It's also nice to be on the other side of "We won the box score but lost the game". 

The Trice uniforms need to make an annual reappearance. 

The CSJ staff is growing cautiously optimistic with more manageable opponents on the schedule.

Keep improving.

Evolution

In the annual wild, drama-filled game against the Cowboys, it was great to see the offense nudge towards what the team can (potentially) do well and away from what it has shown it can't do in a consistent way.

The move towards the pass is natural (and obvious) but is most admirable as it goes against human nature. Change is hard for humans. The CSJ staff has dozens of habits that should be changed, but remain a constant in our lives. We applaud anyone who recognizes that change is needed- and actually follows through.

While the Cyclones aren't world beaters, there are a solid five games left on the schedule that could be considered coin flips. Opportunity awaits.

Change Or Maintain?

 We normals watch games differently from experts. We might have some idea of what the original design of a given play was, and can infer some idea of where a play succeeds or fails. But only a team's staff can accurately evaluate performance.

Through three games, the Iowa State offense is one of the worst in Power 5, and is the worst in total offense. Run blocking is atrocious. Only the staff can determine if that situation is going to improve or if a change in philosophy is warranted.

CMC found some success in his first five years by being a ground-first, ball control offense when most of the league was still running the spread and trying to score 60 each week. But now most of the league is looking to run, and Iowa State's offensive style is no longer the outlier. 

Go to the pass to set up the run? Stop running inside and get the ball to talent in space? Or keep trying to improve the zone blocking performance and try to "ground and pound"?

Others have sited the change in defensive philosophy after the 2017 Akron game, and that shift has changed football at every level. Abandoning areas where you are struggling and going all in on what you are (marginally) better at has merit.

The next few games will be interesting.

Not Enough, Again

There were several seasons in the late 1980's and 1990's when the margin between Iowa State and Oklahoma wasn't very big. The Cyclones would keep the game close (see '89, '92, '95, '98, and of course the win in '90)- but OU would find a way to win.

The TOE series is the same way. 

The series is much more competitive than the record over the last 20 games (7-13), but the TOE is so often just enough better to get the trophy. 

We hope the Cyclones can get a win or two in the series before the GoBlas are promoted to The Super Duper League and the football series ends forever.

Optimistic Start

Saturday was a lovely change of pace in the usually challenging series with UNI- an early lead revealed an Iowa State team that was shockingly better in all three phases of the game compared to the Panthers. A nice surprise all around.

Which brings us to the GoBlas. An argument can be made that outside of the 2016 debacle, CMC's crew has outplayed the TOE in the last five games, with only last year's win to show for it. It is the height of irony that a team that couldn't get out of its own way for most of the season (and tried to give the game away in the first quarter) strung together the most unlikely possession in Cyclone Football history: 21 plays, 99 3/4 yards, 11:49 off the clock for the winning TD. 

Hopefully all three units can avoid the killer mistake and find a way to beat a very talented but offensively flawed GoBla team.

Just Win, Baby.

Same old or something different?

The staff at CSJ can make both of the arguments for the 2023 Cyclone football season:

-Too many personnel losses and too many changes to staff and scheme keep the offense as the worst in the Big 12, and the team finish 4-8 again;

-The defense keeps the team in every game, and the offense improves just enough to find 6 or 7 wins to earn a trip to Memphis or similar.

We have our fingers crossed the latter is the tale that will be told. But given CMC's propensity to play game close, we will keep a big jar of Tums in arms reach every Saturday. 

Against UNI- the Purple Hawks will keep it close, but miss a 55 yard FG try at the gun and lose 14-13.

No style points- Just win, baby. 

Now We Know

Given the news of the week, we now know much of the path that lies before the football team.

Continue to be stout on defense.

Improve to merely average on special teams.

Run the ball with enough consistency that the QB doesn't have to carry the offense.

We have a large enough data set with seven seasons under CMC to know that while the team will find itself in more close games than the average program, the solid defense means they seldom have to put 40 on the board to win. Simply moving the offensive conference scoring average from 20 to 24 points per game would have resulted in a winning season. 27 points would have been smashing in the win column.

Here's hoping the new offensive staff can put more points on the board, and team team has better success in the margins.

With seven (!) coin flips on the schedule, the difference between 8-4 and 4-8 will be really small.

Farewell to the Old Guard

The CSJ staff sheds no tears when news breaks of coaches at all levels being dismissed for verbal abuse, hazing, or general jerkiness.

This style of coaching is a dinosaur in modern life. It is being weeded out of the workplace, yet we expect our kids to endure it as it "builds character". 

No, it doesn't. It only encourages a fear of failure, hesitancy, and caution.

Exposure of these behaviors is becoming more common as players are growing more courageous in documenting and reporting the abuse. The fact that athletes can now transfer if the coaches are inappropriate has also shifted the balance of power on teams- and coaches who are used to domineering behavior are quick to complain about how 'soft' athletes have become. But its obvious that the most abusive wouldn't take what they dish out if it was coming from anyone else in the life.

In the new world of athletics, player management is as important as recruiting and tactics. We will quickly learn who is better at each phase, but bad player management may get a coach fired the quickest.

In favor of the Mid-Majors

For the record, if the NCAA tournament makes any changes, it should shift its bids away from the power conferences and towards the Mid-Majors. 

The simple reason is that the 6th or 7th team in a Power 6 conference had plenty of chances to earn Quad 1 wins, since they play in a power 6 conference.

Mid-Major teams often struggle to get more than 1 or 2 Quad 1 games on their schedules, as the Power 6 schools have little incentive to play them. (Iowa State and awa's refusal to play Drake and Northern Iowa is Exhibit A) They should be given the benefit of the doubt.

More UMBC and St. Peters, (and, yes, more Hamptons and UABs) fewer 7th place finishes getting bids. And stop sending conference champs to Dayton for the First Four. They won their league, they get a proper seed.

Play Ball.

Courage

 A wild couple of weeks of Cyclone Basketball culminated if big wins in Kansas City.

The men shook off weeks of bad chemistry to earn two solid wins over Baylor and a decent effort against Kansas. They adjusted to the removal of a key cog in their game plan, and yet returned to the form that won them games up through mid-January. Adapting to sudden change takes both knowledgeable coaching and a willingness to adjust for the better.

The women's conference season and tournament title is just as remarkable. After losing two post players in January, the offensive plan was scrapped and the team reverted to the three-driven offense that had carried them for almost 30 years. This season was one of Fennely's better coaching jobs in his tenure. 

Having the conference MVP goes a long way. It's unfortunate that the best player in the Big 12 flies under the national radar because her game is so understated. She manages to get 21 and 10 every night without a single play that ends up on SportsCenter. It's low-key impressive. 

Now on to the tournaments. Both teams have manageable seeds, and can hopefully find enough offense to get to the second weekend. Regardless of their finishes, both teams earned athletic and mental victories this year.

Game on.

Variance

 Even when the men were playing well, they were prone to scoring droughts. Every hot streak could be met with a drought. 

By our math, a 60-54 was lost when the offense could only manage 9 points over their last 13 possessions while WVU managed to stay above 1 point per possession the rest of the way. 

If the Cyclones find a couple of buckets down the stretch, they probably pull it out.

They showed great courage to come out of half time and take the lead, but the last 7 minutes displayed the vulnerability this gritty but flawed team owns. 

The arc of the season changed when Grill tweaked his back reaching for a rebound against Texas. 

The good news is that they are in the tourney, and they way they play defense will give them a puncher’s chance against anyone. 

Chances

 It is a bit head spinning to consider where the Cyclones are compared to two seasons ago.

With 8 games to play, Iowa State has a puncher's chance at winning the league. Wild.

They will probably need to go 7-1 or 6-2 to pull it off, but to even have a shot at a ring is fantastic.

Of the six (!) teams with a decent chance at the title, we would put our nickel on the Jayhawk's square. They have the friendliest path, and will be favored in 5 or 6 of their last 7.

Buckle up.

Where we're at

 The good news is that Iowa State is going to be in every game this year. It's just going to come down to which team makes plays in the last four minutes.

So far, ISU has been on both sides of the end, and are now 2-2 in league road games. 

Still playing with house money.

Puncher's Chance

 Outside of a disaster in Johnson County (it wasn't the Gobla's Super Bowl, nope, no way, don't even suggest it), this Cyclone team has shown that it can go round-for-round with anyone. They've found a few more options on offense, so while they are hardly aesthetically pleasing to the basketball eye, they have avoided the droughts that plagued last year's team. They can win any game in any gym.

The Big XII is all-around ridiculous this year, so we doubt any game will be more than +10 either way. The Big Brains think 8 wins is enough for the tourney- any more will only improve the seeding. Stock up on Tums and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.

Winding down and cranking up

The 2022 football season ended with a thud. A motivated TCU squad overwhelmed our Cyclones, but they had no choice: A 17-14 win would have opened the door for the naysayers to question whether TCU was worthy of the playoffs, and maybe we should give two-loss Alabama another look. Style points mattered. 

Now we wait on staff changes and the comings and going in the transfer portal. Movement is inevitable, and we can only hope to come out on the plus side in the end. Any improvement on the offensive line and special teams and the program is in a good place to compete. 

Few are commenting on TCU's 5-7 record last year, where they only won 3 B12 games and had several blowout losses, including 48-14 in Ames. Teams can turn quickly.

Basketball is all upside, as both teams have post players they are adapting to. Each looked good in Oregon and showed they can compete with top flight teams. Offensive continuity will be key, especially the men.

Winter should be fun, and hopefully each team has a satisfying finish.

Memorable

 We now have data to confirm how large of a missed opportunity this Cyclone Football season has been, courtesy The Athletic:

From 2017-2021, teams with Top 10 in stop-rate (percentage of defensive drives that end in punts, turnovers or turnovers on downs) win at a .793 rate. Of those 50 teams, 31 won 10 or more games, 23 played for conference titles. 

Of those 50 teams, only one finished with a losing record, and in came in the COVID dominated season of 2020 when Air Force finished 3-3. 

ISU is 4-7.

Stunning. Doing unlikely things in unlikely ways. Playing literally "Exceptional Football".

Upright

 For one week, thanks to a big 4th quarter, Cyclone Football stopped taking on water.

This win certainly goes to the defense. 12 possessions, 8 3-and-outs, a 4-and out, and a 5-and out. 10 possessions, 33 plays, 57 net yards. That will win you a lot of games. Two scores given up on A) end-of-half prevent defense and B) end-of-half prevent defense full of second and third teamers. We can roll with that.

The hair raising part of the day was how long it took ISU to put the game away. On their first 9 possessions, ISU scored 10 points on 53 plays and 153 yards. No bueno. 

The rough-the-kicker penalty after a short ineffective drive was the turning point, to put it mildly. 38 yards on a run by Silas, two yard run, and a 24 yard TD pass to X finished a snappy drive that was surprising in efficiency. 

After another 3-and-out by the defense and another big Silas run leads to the clinching TD. Fun stuff.

The 4th quarter run game breakout was a relief to witness, and perhaps gives the fan base a tiny bit of optimism moving forward. Finding two more wins to gain bowl-eligibility is plausible but no gimme, but its a much better chair than most of us sat in last week.

This is still a relatively young offensive unit, especially with only two seniors in the two-deeps on the line. Perhaps a bit of growth happened Saturday.

Onward.

 

Consistency

Another week, another game that could have been won because of the defense, yet was lost because of the offense.

 The scheme struggles to find repeatable success. Three good plays will be met with a 5 yard loss. The line is often overwhelmed. The passing game can't throw downfield because Dekkers only has 1.5 seconds in the pocket. Everything is hard. Iowa State tends to be the best or second best game by B12 defenses on the season. OU and KU have seen their best games against ISU, and there's no second place.

It is becoming clearer that in the past Iowa State had the luxury of skill players who could overcome mediocre line play. Those days are gone. Either the line has regressed or the skill positions have taken a step back, or both.

With four games to go, it is unlikely Iowa State will either reach a bowl game or escape last place. 

The offense is losing all of the details in the margins.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

The Problem

 In three conference games, Iowa State is averaging 14.7 points. The 24 they scored against Baylor looks like an explosion in hindsight- they have only mustered 11 against Kansas and 9 against Kansas State.

Kansas has given up 42 and 38 in their other two B12 games. 

And yet- all three games were winnable with even slightly better execution- complete a pitch and catch on third down, hit the original hole rather than dancing around the backfield hoping to find a better one, etc. - and the team is 2-1 or 3-0 and all is right with the world.

The good news is there are lots of winnable games ahead on the schedule. But any win will require better performances on the offensive side of the ball or we have to quickly shift our attention to hoops like the Bad Old Days.

Offensive Crisis

Two games in a row where the defense (probably) does enough to win, yet the offense does far too little to win.

If you hold a team to negative yardage for a half of football, you should win. Full stop.

If you hold a team a full 2 yards-per-play and 26 points below their average you should win. Full stop.

If you run 43 plays on the opponents side of the field, call us crazy, but you probably should score more than 11 points.

There are multiple issues on the offensive side of the ball. Hopefully some of them get fixed soon, or we are staying home for the holidays. Considering that all seven remaining games are winnable, failing to find three more wins would be a waste.

Another Turning Point

The first turning point of the season was the trip to Iowa City. Fortunately, the Goblas weren't good enough to take advantage of all of Iowa State's mistakes, and the Cyclones got to bring home the ugly trophy.

Mistakes allowed Baylor to leave Ames with a win.

Given the balance of the B12 this year, a case can be made that every league game will be a turning point. But the trip to Lawrence will determine if our Cyclones will still have a shot at greatness, or will have to hustle to become bowl-eligible. 

Kansas comes in gaining 7.2 YPP (#7 nationally), while ISU is generating only 5 YPP (#50). Granted, ISU has faced two Top 10 defenses in their first four games, but that number is going to have to jump to win games in this league.

On defense the coin flips. ISU yields only 3.7 YPP, good for #7 (but that number is distorted by the terrible Iowa and Ohio offenses), while KU yields 6.3 YPP, #109 in the country, similar to the 6.6 that Ohio yields. 

The ISU defense is by far the best that KU has seen this year. Hopefully they can keep KU in the 20's and not the 40's. 

Which puts the onus on the offense to play a clean game, crank out first downs and score TDs in the Red Zone. If the offense can be consistent and score, this should be a win. 

If the offense makes the same kinds of mistakes the unit made against Iowa and Baylor- hang on to your butts.

Brace Yourself

We didn't realize it when CMC was hired, but a bargain had been struck, a bargain that requires a tax to be paid each year.

The benefit of the bargain? Competent football.

The tax? A loss to the Team Out East every September.

Almost every Cyclone fan would accept the trade in the long term, but the payment of The Tax grows more painful each fall.

It would be different if each loss came in the form of the 2016 beat-down- we would choose not to watch and mow the lawn instead. 

But no- the Cyclones have to outplay the Goblas each year, and then find a new ridiculous way to lose the same game.

It is fair that Iowa State fans might have a glimmer of hope given the results of each team's openers, but do not drink that drink so quickly- we all know how this will end. The exact verse will be different, but the song will remain the same.

Brace yourselves.

Steady as she goes

 While there are plenty of new faces in the two deeps, the CSJ staff remains cautiously optimistic that the improving depth in the roster will reveal a number of new stars for Cyclone fans.

IF- the defense can continue to be salty, holding teams below their season yardage and scoring averages, and- 

IF- the offensive line can give Dekkers enough time to throw downfield rather than running for his life, as Purdy often had to-

- we could have some fun this year.

But we are also big believers if trends. If your offensive line has been ordinary, assume it will continue to be ordinary. Thus, we see 7-5 this year.

Wins against SEMO and Ohio.

Losses against awa and Baylor, since Iowa State is kinda lousy in September.

Wins against Kansas and Kansas State.

Losses in Stillwater and against OU.

A win in Austin (trap game the week after they lose to OU, and their season basically ends)

Wins against West Virgina and Tech in Ames.

The patented we-played-like-crap-on-the-road-loss comes at TCU. 

Review

One team surprised all of college basketball and its own fan base by overachieving for most of the season. They pulled two upsets in The Tournament, and came very close to an Elite Eight appearance, a rare bird in Cyclone basketball.

Another team played high level basketball all season, and came within a game of a share of the B12 title. Their season also ended on the cusp of the Elite Eight, an ending most fans would have been happy with in October.

In retrospect, this was a much more entertaining winter than Cyclone fans expected. Next season could be on the same level and, with some breaks, even more interesting.

Enjoy the good seasons when they appear, as we never know when a drought will return.

Astounding

 Of the scenarios we thought could play out this weekend, the one that happened was the least likely. We were clearly wrong on almost every point of our last post. Happy to be wrong.

The men's defensive effort discombobulated both LSU and Wisconsin on offense. Wisky ended their game Sunday with more turnovers than made baskets. Just masterful. Ugly, but effective.

The difference between Friday and Sunday could not have been more stark. The Friday nail-biter was reversed with a Sunday first-quarter avalanche that Georgia was never able to dig themselves out from under. 

Add in the upset on the other side of the bracket, and Iowa State is staring at undiscovered country of their own.

It's a lot to take in, but its a very fun ride.

Bad matchups

 Someone on the seeding committee was unimpressed with the Cyclones last two weeks.

They struggle against quality defensive teams, especially ones that are physical. Who did they draw in their first two NCAA games? Physical defensive teams, both in the top 25 on defensive metrics. They won't survive the weekend even if they find a way to beat LSU.

(The GoBlas, on the other hand, were all but given a free pass to the Sweet 16. They get to play two teams in the 60's defensively. They will hang 90+ in both games and cruise. Figures)

The women didn't fare much better. Potential second round matchup Georgia looks like Texas on paper, and we know how those games went. Add in the potential rematch against TOE, and I think it will be a short tourney run for the women, too.

As usual, I hope to be proven wrong.

Trends

 As noted by Travis Hines @TravisHines21 at the DMR, the Cyclones had a very healthy 1.29 PPP in the first half against KSU, which may have been the best half of the season. The second half was only .719.

But viewing the second half as a whole doesn’t tell the whole tale. The Cyclones managed 18 points in their first 18 possessions, which would have easily won the game if they could have maintained that pace. They were still up 10 with 9:02 left.

But then the bottom fell out. Over their last 13 possessions only 5 points were scored. That’s a PPP of .38. There were 5 turnovers in the last 13 possessions, which resulted in 5 KSU points and buckets of momentum. 

Frankly, the insane start to the game in some ways doomed the Cyclones. Scoring 13 points in your first 6 possessions (2.16 PPP!) lets your subconscious think the game is over in the first 4 minutes. Holding an early lead like that for the remainder of the game is harder than it looks, especially for a team that has been playing from behind for six weeks.

There was a load of good in that game to build from, but this team can only play one way to generate the points needed to win.

Data

Nearing the halfway mark of the Big 12 season, we should all firmly understand how Otz's crew has to play to have a chance to win in the league. 

Games like TCU? Nope.

Games like Stillwater? Yup.

If this crew is within 5 points with 4 minutes to go, they are going to win their share of games. But they don't get in that position when they chuck 50 jump shots and don't attack the rim. Playing defense like they care goes a long way too.

Plateaus

 We have watched to iowa State-Clemson game now twice, and we are tossing ideas around on how to sum the game, and if it carries symbolism for the Cyclones football program.

Yes, it does.

Any symbolism is in fact simple observation: Iowa State has vastly better talent compared to earlier coaching staffs, and can now play even games against the highest tier of college football teams. Full Stop.

Winning those games is another question. The defense played well enough to win against both Clemson and in 10 of the 13 games this season. That's all you can ask.

The offensive line is able to dominate bad teams (outside of September) but struggles as the opponents improve. That unit may be the most inconsistent of all of the groups, and may- may- be the unit holding the team back. 

We are watching a football program that has a puncher's chance in every game, and barring crazy injuries should be bowl eligible every year. That's an odd thing to write as a group that witnessed the Great Football Walk In The Desert that was the 80's and 90's. 

We will see a lot of new faces next year, but each player that stepped up this year did well. We are on a new football plateau. Enjoy the view.

Double

 Cyclone fans enjoyed a remarkable pair of nights in Hilton. Given how many painful losses we have witnesses to the Goblas, it was fun to hand down a pair of solid wins. 

For the men to hammer the Goblas the way the did was fantastic, especially with Hilton at full roar. If any of the current players didn’t understand the potential of the building at its best, they do now. And the fan base will be returning each night to help carry the team across the finish. 

It’s good to be relevant again. Enjoy the ride.

Leverage

 It seems that each of the last four seasons have ended with rumors of Campbell's imminent departure. But given the current landscape, this might be the year it happens.

Several brand name programs- programs that have won national titles and could win more- are without a coach. Several of the assumed candidates have been locked up by their current schools with massive 10-year contracts. The pool of candidates who would please a fan base is suddenly small.

Coach Campbell may suddenly be the most attractive 'available' candidate.

CMC seems to be wired differently from most coaches, and doesn't come across as a ladder climber. But he also climbed one rung of the ladder to leave Toledo for Iowa State. Why would he not climb another?

He mentioned in an interview a few years ago that he had given "Stillness is the Key" to his staff to read one summer, which is an interesting choice of books. Much of the book harps on being in the moment, focusing at the task at hand, not looking ahead, concepts that fit into his coaching philosophy and you hear repeated by his players.

But a big section of the middle of the book talks about the folly of pursuing riches and fame, as both are fleeting and fail to satisfy. The moment you finish climbing one mountain your brain turns to the next challenge. 

It would be odd to embrace the part of the book that helps one be successful but ignore another part that warns of pursuing success in the hopes of finding happiness.

Perhaps the brand name jobs are becoming less of a goal for coaches. Each coach who signed on with their second or third tier school may have realized that they can have a good life at a place without "Championship or Bust" aspirations. Is $8 million a year worth it if you are being hung in effigy after a disappointing loss in year two? 

Campbell can drive a hard bargain if he wants to try and win a title. ADs who are desperate to appease their fan base will throw unimaginable riches at him this week. CMC may also use the moment to earn another pay raise for the staff, most of whom have coached for him for a decade. 

We will learn a lot about Campbell's priorities in the next few weeks.

Advantage

It's good to see our Cyclones exploit an advantage.

Every long run against TCU came on a cutback on a stretch play- three times to the left, and once to the right. Whether that tendency was noticed on tape of discovered in game, kudos for going to it again and again.

Sometimes if feels that offensive coordinators are trying to win a prize for cleverness from the Offensive Coordinator's Association rather than scoring points and winning games. Example- eight running plays get you First and Goal, so surprise the defense with three pass plays! Dumb. Keep using what's working.

Most turnarounds at football programs involve a core of recruits who dramatically raise the team's performance through ability or execution or both. The group that Campbell and Co. brought in were exceptional, and have claimed big sections of the record book as their own.

Now comes the hard part- finding players who can maintain the culture and continue to raise the bar.

Turnaround

Seven new players and a 6-0 start, playing tough defense and running an offense that uses each player's strengths. This team has learned a lot in only six weeks of practice.

The portion of the fan base that was grumpy at Jamie "hiring one of his buddies" is noticeably quiet.

While we don't expect more than 6 wins in the B12 this year, it will be fun to watch, knowing the Cyclones can win on any night that enough threes find the bottom of the net.

Carry on, fellas.

Good but not Great

 Welcome to the Good but not Great era of Cyclone Football.

As it becomes more clear that the 2020 season was an outlier, Cyclone fans need to come to grips with the fact that while the Campbell regime has improved the baseline for the football program, they are now merely above average in the Big 12. 

Compared to the previous 40 years of football, it's a giant improvement. But the gap between consistent winning and Consistently Great is another large step, one that may be harder than it appears.

We all need to enjoy the feeling that Iowa State could win each week, and celebrate every victory that does appear.

You never know when the ride will come to an end.

Shattered

 The Cyclone football program is broken in both the first half of seasons and first half of games.

Their September stumbles are well documented, and are a long term project.

Opponents have realized that the defensive scheme improves in the second half, so any hay that is going to be made needs to be in the barn at halftime. Teams with gumption and grit are burying the defense in the first half of late.

Football experts will have to break down if Iowa State isn't executing early or if teams are breaking out new material at the start of games, but the results of late have been sub-par, especially for a program with such high hopes in August. Perhaps the rest of the league adopting the principals of the the Cyclone defense has removed the exoticness of the scheme. 

2020 being an outlier looms larger with each passing week. Rats.

Hammers

 It was exciting to watch our Cyclones avalanche the Longhorns after halftime. The option pass to Milton to put ISU up 10 was an emotional back breaker for a fragile Texas squad that is definitely unsure of itself under the new staff. 

The 27-0 run in the second was a beautiful dismantling of a of a team loaded with both talent and money that doesn’t know how to properly leverage either.

While it would have been fun to make Texas endure a 25 degree day and sideways snow, (Nebraska 1988 comes to mind)  the mild day allowed Cyclone fans to be at a full lather when it mattered. Fun times.

Margins

 Against OSU, odd officials calls ended up even, or at least were in situations that Iowa State was able to overcome. Against WVU, no such luck.

Given Iowa State's propensity to play close games, they are more susceptible to losing or winning based on one call. Unless the program is able find a way to increase its margin in games, we will all have to get used to more nail biters and the occasional shaft job.

Not that Cyclone fans have ever watched their team be beaten by the refs.

Front seat

The Cyclones are playing like they realize that they have little margin for error in their quest for a return to the B12 Championship game.

Finding a way to lose in Waco limits the paths to Arlington. One path is winning the road games that don't involve Norman, and last week's hit job in Manhattan should make one optimistic that they can also win in Morgantown and Lubbock. The remainder of the path is downing everyone who come to Ames. KU offered little resistance, but Oklahoma State was more than able to put up a fight. Iowa State is fortunate to have that game in the win column.

The short version is that Iowa State needs to win and Baylor needs to lose. Half of that equation is in Iowa State's hands. They may not be in the driver's seat, but they have squeezed into the front.

Steady

 Coming into the game with Kansas State, we knew three things about the Cyclones:

-They could avoid losing to an FCS team

-They could blow out teams in the bottom 10% of FBS

-They could find ways to lose against ranked teams.

Kansas State doesn't fit any of the above categories. They have the talent to be bowl eligible, but have weaknesses that may keep them from getting there. Would ISU find a way to win, or would they muddle along and try to win on the last possession?

The results were the reverse, as the Cyclones put the game away early, and prevented KSU from making it a game in the second half. That was enjoyable.

Oklahoma State will be a much stiffer test, and have been Kryptomite to Iowa State's October magic. But the performance in Manhattan makes a win against the Cowboys plausible.

Habits

An offense which often dramatically out gains their opponent, yet has a habit of kicking field goals in the red zone at a higher rate than the rest of college football.

A defense that is nails in the second half has a habit of giving up touchdowns on the opponent’s first two or three possessions, forcing the team to play from behind all day.

Special teams has a habit of being sub-optimal in general and frequently being the difference between a win and a loss in a bad way.

The staff has a habit of producing lackluster Septembers, which limits the upside of the team and demoralizes the fan base. 

You are a collection of your habits.

Efficiency

The starting offense had 8 trips into the UNLV red zone in 8 possessions and came away with 38 points. That was an improvement over the first two weeks when the offense found a combined 33 points on 8 trips.

So red zone performance isn't the bugaboo it was at times last season- the problem appears to be a lack of red zone trips. 

UNLV will probably be the weakest defense the team will face this year, so the offense will need to be very efficient at converting red aone trips, or discover some explosive play ability.

It was nice to overmatch a team early and put a game out of reach before halftime. Bravo

Outliers

Considering the offensive struggle of the 2021 team, perhaps we should contemplate that the 2020 team was an outlier.

The Cyclones got their best performances when it mattered, avoided major injuries, and played some teams when they were having COVID-19 issues. Human nature is to assume the current situation will remain constant, and change will happen at a steady pace and in the current trajectory.

It's hard to see the outlier in the moment- you can only spot it in hindsight. Would a 7-5 or 8-4 finish make 2021 a dissapointment? Yes. But it would also emphasize how special the 2020 season was.

It was easy to drink the Kool-Aid in the offseason with everyone coming back. But past performance is no guarantee of future returns. So far the offense has returned little.

Consistency

Perhaps we all need to make peace with the Cyclones being lousy in September as long as CMC is in charge.

The Russian judge hates it, but a win is a win.

Run the table, boys

For the first time since the leather helmet was standard, the unthinkable is a least plausible: a perfect Cyclone football season, a conference football title, and more.

The staff at CSJ, for one season, are taking off the nut cup and hoping that things go our way like they never have before. Our prediction:

Iowa State goes undefeated, 12-0 in the regular season, and wins the Big 12 title game.

But-

They don't get a shot at the title.

We witness a weird season in the Big 12. Iowa State and TCU play for the Championship, while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can only manage 9-3 overall. Texas stumbles to 4-8. (Iowa underachieves at 6-6 or 7-5) The national narrative dissolves into "The Big 12 isn't good this year." ISU lacks a Top 10 win and earns only 3 Top 25 wins and must settle for a nice, yet weirdly underwhelming New Year's Day bowl game. 

The Cyclones finish at 14-0, but the season is unsatisfying, a disappointment for reasons beyond our control.

The ride will still be thrilling. Buckle up.

Fun Ball League

 The following isn't going to happen, but it's an idea I've tossed around with friends at tailgates.

The new Irate 8 invite Memphis and Tulane into the league to return to a 10-team scenario. Everyone plays everyone else in football each year, home-home in basketball. Tournament still lives in Kansas City.

Why those schools? Both Memphis and New Orleans know how to show visitors a good time. Memphis is driveable for almost the entire fan base of the league. NOLA is a short flight from Iowa and Kansas, driveable from most of Texas and OK.

The CSJ staff would make a road trip to one of those cities every-dang-year if we could roll a football or basketball game into the package.

Merely a pipe dream, but a fun one to joke about.

Upside

 

The CSJ staff is torn on how to approach the 2021 season.

On one hand, Cyclone Football stands at the border of Undiscovered Country, a level of national respect that few expected Iowa State would ever see. An Over/Under win total of 9.5 was unimaginable a few years ago. ISU tossed around as a possible Playoff team, which means a puncher's chance at a Natty. Insane stuff for a fan base that puts the Suffering in Long-Suffering.

On the other hand, the potential for an epic prat fall on the national stage will crank the anxiety of many a Cyclone fan. There have been other claims of arrival at the Big Time, only to crash in the moment. Anyone fearing the drop of the other shoe would be forgiven.

But given that we have never been to this place as a fan base, enjoying the ride is the best path to take. Wearing your nut cup all summer will make it difficult to enjoy the peaks, as clouds of doubt will always shadow the moment. Breathe the anticipation deeply, as it will fuel the celebration if the impossible arrives. 

And if the unthinkable happens, focus on the journey we have made as a community, rather than any perceived fall.  

Decisive

 Given the rapid movement and high profile openings in college basketball coaching jobs, Pollard looks smart for having a plan and acting on it early. While Coach Otz probably wasn't on the radar of a lot of AD's, he's not an unknown commodity. Someone would have come calling if Pollard had lingered.

Here's hoping things shake out well for Ames.

Courage

 The cake that was the basketball season was baked in November, and all we fans could do was watch and wait to learn if it would be lousy or terrible. Terrible it was.

There were some games where I was unsure of what the game plan was on offense or defense, but for many others you could see the players still trying to run their stuff and make something happen. It would have been easy to pack it in mentally after 10 games, but this bunch kept plugging away. They just couldn't figure out how to win a game down the stretch. Good teams find a way, bad teams don't.

It's unfortunate Steve didn't find more success in Ames. It's funny how often the jerks get to keep their jobs, while the good guys have to find something else to do.