It's Gotta Be The Gold Pants

It was lovely seeing a Cyclone team in gold pants again, even if it was on the road. Apparently a bit of Gold Pant Magic was the slump-buster the program needed.

Passing the ball remains an inconsistent challenge, but the offense found enough connections down the stretch to churn out first downs. A win despite a 160-yard deficit it hard to do, as is the kind of game that ISU is often on the losing end.

Our goals for Cyclone teams has always been the same: get games into the fourth quarter, and win more than half of the games from there. The last three losses all fit this bill, and the win in Fort Worth did two. Sometimes your grinding pays off.

Just keep grinding. 

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Winding down and cranking up

The 2022 football season ended with a thud. A motivated TCU squad overwhelmed our Cyclones, but they had no choice: A 17-14 win would have opened the door for the naysayers to question whether TCU was worthy of the playoffs, and maybe we should give two-loss Alabama another look. Style points mattered. 

Now we wait on staff changes and the comings and going in the transfer portal. Movement is inevitable, and we can only hope to come out on the plus side in the end. Any improvement on the offensive line and special teams and the program is in a good place to compete. 

Few are commenting on TCU's 5-7 record last year, where they only won 3 B12 games and had several blowout losses, including 48-14 in Ames. Teams can turn quickly.

Basketball is all upside, as both teams have post players they are adapting to. Each looked good in Oregon and showed they can compete with top flight teams. Offensive continuity will be key, especially the men.

Winter should be fun, and hopefully each team has a satisfying finish.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

Data

Nearing the halfway mark of the Big 12 season, we should all firmly understand how Otz's crew has to play to have a chance to win in the league. 

Games like TCU? Nope.

Games like Stillwater? Yup.

If this crew is within 5 points with 4 minutes to go, they are going to win their share of games. But they don't get in that position when they chuck 50 jump shots and don't attack the rim. Playing defense like they care goes a long way too.

Run the table, boys

For the first time since the leather helmet was standard, the unthinkable is a least plausible: a perfect Cyclone football season, a conference football title, and more.

The staff at CSJ, for one season, are taking off the nut cup and hoping that things go our way like they never have before. Our prediction:

Iowa State goes undefeated, 12-0 in the regular season, and wins the Big 12 title game.

But-

They don't get a shot at the title.

We witness a weird season in the Big 12. Iowa State and TCU play for the Championship, while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can only manage 9-3 overall. Texas stumbles to 4-8. (Iowa underachieves at 6-6 or 7-5) The national narrative dissolves into "The Big 12 isn't good this year." ISU lacks a Top 10 win and earns only 3 Top 25 wins and must settle for a nice, yet weirdly underwhelming New Year's Day bowl game. 

The Cyclones finish at 14-0, but the season is unsatisfying, a disappointment for reasons beyond our control.

The ride will still be thrilling. Buckle up.

Good to Great?

 The win over TCU was a massive step forward on offense, and suggests potential for greatness as the season moves forward.

Given the choice, the CSJ staff will choose run blocking over pass blocking every time, as run blocking opens up passing options in ways that don’t occur in the reverse. Go big fellas, go.

Give OU a second conference loss and the league breaks wide, wide open. A national audience will be watching to see if Iowa State has become a Big Boy or is still a Plucky Upstart.

The New Big Boys find a way to win. Go get it done.

Never bet against a streak

 B12 game in September under Campbell? That mean the Cyclones lose in Ft. Worth. 

The only surprise will be in the route they take.

Stunner

Given the offensive struggles the Cyclones had against the two solid defenses they played earlier in the year (Iowa and Baylor), to witness the offensive competency that broke out against TCU was stunning. Six touchdowns on nine possessions in TCU territory is getting it done, and couldn't have come at a better time with more winnable games this month.

The offensive performance was even more surprising after how disruptive the TCU defense had been for ISU recently. The last six games- five losses for ISU- have all been tough sledding for the offense, and one has to go back to the 2012 win in Fort Worth to find another day where the offense did what it wanted against the Horned Frogs.

While having your QB be your leading rusher isn't a good long-term plan, it appears that running threat is what opens up the offense as a whole. So be it.

Onward to Morgantown.

Progress

Saturday proved progress both in a week-to-week sense and in the narrative arc of the Campbell tenure.

Iowa State should have beaten the Cowboys the last three seasons, but Saturday had the moxie to take a lead after a bad start, and then to respond each time OSU closed to within a score. They broke through that mental wall.

In 2014, TCU blasted Iowa State 55-3 on their way to a 12-1 season. They should have been in the playoff, while our Cyclones surrendered 466 points in that season. (In comparison, TCU gave up only 247 that year.)

The last two years, TCU has scored 21 points total against ISU. You don't need many things to go your way to win with that kind of scoring defense. We will get to enjoy plenty of wins playing in that kind of sandbox.

The program continues to bend towards consistently solid football, so wins should follow. Watching a breakout performance by a QB is fun, but I remember Steele Jantz and Sam Richardson having big breakout games, too. Its easier to do when the defense hasn't seen you on tape.

The big challenge will be against West Virginia, a quality team with a week to prepare. Cross your fingers the home team has the better scheme and execution.

Muddled

The OL- whoof. Any running play that requires a pull or trap is a guaranteed loss of yardage, as blockers can't block their man long enough for the play to develop. Best to stick with step-and-hit until the skill or the personell improves.

The defense remains solid, and it's fun to see so many different numbers getting snaps during the game. The depth will come in handy.

We shouldn't complain about a win, but it's in our nature. Red Zone failures will come back to bite our collective butts down the line. Field Goals won't beat TCU.

Earning It

Even the new guy in the league doesn't respect the Cyclones:

TCU violated one of the primary rules of being a "good" Big 12 team -- do not lose at home against Iowa State. Ever.

Welcome to the big time. If you don't show up to play the Chump, you become the Chump. Chump.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/10/07/4317147/loss-to-iowa-state-proves-tcu.html#storylink=cpy