It is completely rational to predict that a team that brought in 70+ players through the portal to be terrible. The 4.5 win total O/U makes sense.
But if the new staff thought the team would be terrible, they would be trying to keep expectations down. This staff has publicly stated they want the defense to have a goal of holding opponents to 14 points or fewer this season. Not someday, but now. For context, only 5 teams gave up 14 points or fewer. 25 teams gave up 20 or less. The Haycock defense that frustrated a big swath of the Iowa State fan base gave up 20.17 last year.
Challenging your team to average 14 when they are more likely to give up 40 will only bring misery to the team and fan base.
If the staff thinks they can keep teams to 20-ish points on average, the season shouldn't be terrible.
Add in QB Jaylen Raynor, who gave the Cyclones fits the last two seasons, and the Iowa State offense should be able to chug out first downs at a minimum.
Looking at the schedule and the estimated win totals, ISU should win 2 in September (SEMO and Bowling Green), will be serious underdogs in 5 games (at TOE, Utah, at BYU, at Arizona, Kansas State), which leaves 5 coin flip games: WVU, OSU, at Baylor, Cincy, at UCF. Win 3 coin flips and pull one true upset and you are 6-6, get a bowl trip with extra practices and some momentum into '27.
Or nothing works on offense and ISU loses a bunch of 17-10 games to end 3-9 or 4-8. We've seen the "turnover the whole roster" plan not work at other places. A disaster is totally in the cards.
In the end, how the team loses will be as important as how much the team wins. A losing season can still have a positive vibe, even in modern "Playoff or Bust" football.
Here's hoping we are in a collective good mood on November 29th.
