The Streak is dead. Long live the Streak

Making a three in 945 consecutive games is a real accomplishment, especially since it started in a time when teams only took 2 or 3 long shots a game, usually out of desperation.

Most coaches didn't consider a three-first strategy as "real" basketball then.

It is odd that a team that brought in four players over the summer with gaudy shooting stats would struggle all season once the lights came on.

Tech was obviously trying to limit attempts from deep, and conceded shots in the lane. They still lost.

But they will always have the hide of The Streak tacked to their wall. Congrats.

Just Win Baby

Keeping a solid Baylor team at arm's length in Ames is one thing. Winning in Lubbock, where so many Cyclone teams have been demoralized, is something else.

Iowa State was never rattled, kept plugging away, and found a way to win in overtime. They get on the plane back to Ames +2 in the Floyd standings, with two more stout opponents next week.

The three game stretch of Tech, Kansas and West Virginia was going to reveal a lot about this squad. Their grit and moxie are becoming more obvious.

Execution

The offense has one goal across the last four games: score touchdowns. 

Finding only two TDs after generating nine (9!) trips past the opponent’s 35 will get you beat every time. 

Some are mad at the Looney Tunes final play- but game was lost in the second and third quarters. Across 6 possessions Tech managed only 21 yards, but State only scored 10 points. They left the door wide open.

ISU’s defense deserved to win; the offense did not. 

A repeat at Arrowhead will result in an even bigger loss. Tighten up, fellas. 

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

Numbers

 Texas Tech's first nine offensive possessions, plays/yards, result:

3/7, punt

3/7, punt

7/34, punt

4/19, punt

2/2, half

5/10, punt

4/9, downs (at ISU 30)

3/7, punt

6/54, downs (at ISU 25)

That’s 38 plays for 149 yards and no points. 3.9 yards per play. 6 punts in 8 possessions, and 2 turnovers on downs. Against a team averaging 37 points per game. Domination.

If your defense can hold teams that far below their averages, you can win a lot of games.

Ignore the last two possessions as the were classic ‘Garbage Time’ results. Iowa State was in a 3 man rush Prevent, and in 19 plays across two drives rushed more than 3 exactly once, resulting in a sack. 

The offense played their part by controlling the ball on long drives, and with the exception of some poor execution in the red zone had a Grade A day. Also winning football.

The biggest test to date is next in Stillwater. The Cyclones are definitely trending in the right direction. 

A Victory Of Effort

While the last three weeks have not gone the way that Cyclone fans had hoped, today's home loss to Tech was a minor victory (I'm not using the term "moral victory").

The effort was the effort that is needed on a nightly basis. Everyone seemed to be working the game plan. They were where they wanted to be with four minutes left. The better team ended up winning the game and a share of the league title. Bully for them.

Is the season a disappointment? From where we stood three weeks ago, yes. But I try to take the long-term view at moments like this. A bad effort today would have been a red flag for the long term health of the program. We may have avoided a full implosion.

Beat Baylor in Kansas City and things get interesting again. Go get 'em.

7-5

The CMJ staff sees a 7-5 year for the Cyclones in 2018.

Wins over South Dakota State, Akron, Tech, Kansas, Baylor, and two out of Okie State, West Virginia, Texas and K-State.

The defense will be solid again, but I'll believe the OL is ready to consistently run block when I see it. And it's hard to be +10 in turnover margin two years in a row.

The '17 squad was luckier than average than the Iowa State team, too. No major injuries, when one QB flaked out the backup turned out to be great, forcing a turnover when they really needed one, etc. Some of those things will revert to the mean this year.

But they should keep every game close, which will be fun, if frustrating. Enjoy the ride.

Don't Blink

This football team has had plenty of moments to fold, to collapse, to blink.

The last three games, they have not.

On physical ability, this team scores above average for Iowa State football.

Schematically they have the right mix of matching players abilities to the jobs that needs doing.

But it's the mental stability of this group has been most remarkable. Press on in the face of adversity. Run your stuff. Find a way.

I don't recall an Iowa State football team this patient with itself. It's putting Cyclone fan in unknown territory, walking a new road. This may not be the fool's errand a few other season have been.

Enjoy the ride. We've waited a while.

That works

Trucking a team by 56 in record fashion, a team that beat you by 30+ the year before?

Maybe there is something to The Process people keep talking about.

Corner turned?

Bowl Season May Be Ugly

I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.

Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?

Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.

Ticket: Punched

Solid road win? Check.

5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.

Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.

With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.

Slobber knocker

Saturday was exhibit A of why I don't bet on sports.

SUI was a 15 point favorite at Minnesota, and lost.

ISU was a 15 point dog in Lubbock and won. By 34.

I'm not sure which is more surprising- the win or the margin. The Cyclones simply manhandled Tech in every way. It was the kind of performance that we aren't used to seeing, sadly. It would be fun if it became the norm rather than the exception.

Now Iowa State prepares for a Kansas team that mustered only 41 yards in 36 plays against Texas. 41 on 36. I've never seen that before. The hardest part of the week will be getting the Cyclones to bring the same focus they had in Lubbock to bear on the Jayhawks. Being back in the bowl chase should do that.

Moxie Again

It's hard not to admire the grit of this Cyclone football team. It seems that no amount of horrible play will knock them down emotionally. In a typical year, ISU would have found themselves down 28-7 in the first quarter and would have coasted to a routine 42-14 loss. Instead they salvaged a 10-7 halftime deficit, then muscled the game away from UCONN in the second half. It takes deep courage to fight yourself off the edge of the cliff. Now 3-0, ISU has played a tougher schedule than everyone in the league save OU and has jumped 32 spots in the Sagarin rankings (from 75 to 43). KU and KSU are now in the "should win" category, and wins against Mizzou, Tech and Baylor all plausible. Lots of opportunity ahead. This last spin through the B12 schedule could be very interesting- at this point I'm not putting anything past our Cyclones. Playing more games against UCONN seems like our best remaining option.

Season

First off, longtime readers know I try to keep my sports expectations, especially in football, reasonable. When you have the smallest budget in your league you can't expect a whole lot.

So based on who Iowa State should beat based on budget, we're looking at 2-10. Only UConn and UNI spend less than our Clonies. (And UConn is certainly within a few cases of athletic tape of ISU- a good accountant could make either school the pauper.)

My annual over/under for football is a modest 4-8, so anything above that is big-time gravy. Beating a school with a larger budget is a double bonus.

With that, my guess at the wins for the year:

UNI
SUI
UConn
Tech
Kansas
KSU

A win in the Pinstipe Bowl over Cincinnati to finish at 7-6.

For entertainment purposes only.

Hilton Magic Creeping Back?

In light of how well Tech and Baylor have played in the B12 tourney, and yet lost in Ames (badly in the case of Baylor), one has to acknowledge that there is some degree of Hilton Magic still bouncing around the gym.

Teams don't play that badly by accident. Maybe it's the water.

A few more athletic bodies and I think things get interesting again.

Peter