Cascade

Playing the top of the Big 12 has exposed the areas of the team that are the key weaknesses: The back end of the defense, and the front of the offense.

The issues on the defense are due to injury, as the team is now depending on the second, or third, or fourth option on the depth chart. There are no quick fixes, other than hoping everyone back there is a quick learner.

The line is certainly not where it needs to be. Four of the five starters on the line are transfers, and they are still struggling to pick up rushers and create running lanes against quality defenses. All of the other issues on the offenses flow from the struggles up front. 

It was good to see Moberly get extended snaps, even in garbage time. He is a capable QB, but I don't know if he would fare any better in the heat of a first half against a defensive first team.

When the line is able to generate a running game, Raynor is a productive QB. West Virginia is the data point. The problem is every other defense remaining is better. The next game against Oklahoma State has an opportunity statistically, but if the book to shut down Iowa State's offense is to simply load up on the run, the Cyclones may not win the rest of the way.

Our perceptions are distorted by the schedule being more difficult than expected. Looking at the standings as of October 25, ISU has played the three teams at the top, and will not play the three teams at the bottom. The schedule difficulty is up to #15. Ooof.

The data is clear- this team has to run in order to pass.  Improvement can't come fast enough.

 

Developing

The loss in Provo had multiple moments where the game was on the verse of getting away- and the Cyclones would make a play, and keep hanging around.

BYU is clearly a very good team, and deserve their #8 ranking. ISU has some strengths but also some glaring weaknesses. Yet we would argue they are still ahead of schedule. 

Insert your favorite “persevere” cliche here. It would be appropriate. 

Finding A Way

A wild, wild Saturday at Trice, and they good guys found a way to win. It was the classic "make one more play than the other team" kind of win.

While nobody enjoys watching their defense get sliced and diced, it was a typical game for the WVU offense. That's what they do, and they do it to everyone. Your goal is to get as many points on the board as possible.

This point was made by others: this staff is quickly adjusting the offense to what they do well, regardless of the long-term offensive philosophy. We've watched other staffs stubbornly stick with "this is what we want to be" rather than "this is what is working today". Bravo. It's going to be fun watching the offensive evolve, and Raynor grow into his role.

The win was due to the work of one player: Aiden Flora. Post-game, we struggled to put that game into context with Cyclone football history. The stat line is ridiculous:

 22 carries, 212 yards, 9.6 y/a, long of 63, 3 TDs AND 2/2 passing for 2 TDs.

It was a 1 of 1 day- no comparisons. 

It came at the perfect time, and sent Cyclone fans home happy. 

Now a tough roadie to BYU for a Friday game. On paper, BYU is on par with Utah, but hasn't looked the part. Here's hoping they remain in a funk. 

Measured

I the first half of Saturday's game against Utah, it was clear which team had brought in 95 new guys, and which team was fairly undisturbed in the off-season.

The 24-3 halftime score underplayed the domination. 

But the Cyclones pieced together 20 minutes of good football to close the game to 24-17. The crowd was bouncing and Utah looked like it might be woozy with a case of tight helmet. But ISU went 3-and-out with 7 minutes to go, Utah went 61 yards for a TD, and an admirable comeback was ended.

The CSJ staff thought the Utah looked the part of a top-15 team, and ISU a bit undersized. When they were confident in their decisions, plays were won. Indecision was fatal.

We like what the offensive scheme is building, and there will be games where it will grind out first downs and put points on the board. But we are a long way from the home winning streaks of the previous staff.

The program is now 2 for 2 in having a chance to win in the 4th quarter against a power 5 opponent.  We can see wins on the horizon. Patience. 

Specials

We had to be reminded that the Cyclone's Special Teams Coordinator has been in Ames since the 2023 season. We got used to the "Special Teams aren't special" mentality of the early Campbell years. Our bad.

The unit's production against an over-matched Bowling Green team confirms the value of the staff. Give yourselves some helmet stickers.

The road gets steeper over the next month. We are going to need any edge we can muster. Giddy up.   

Rumors

It appears that a team of 95 transfers went on the road to a stadium we're told is hard to play in, lead for most of the game, coulda, woulda, shoulda won, earning an epic win over a program with a fanbase that mocked the rebuilding team all summer, and had been predicting an obvious blowout.

We're not so fortunate to carry an all-time legendary win with us back to the office on Monday.

But many questions about this team were answered. The defense, especially the line, held a power running team to only 93 yards. They were quick to the ball and ready to tackle. The offense had moments against a Top 10 defense, but 9 first downs won't be enough going forward.  The passing game will need to advance rapidly. 

But the Jimmy Experiment looks to have potential, and the Cyclones should be in every game this season. When your program doesn't have a Playoff budget like Iowa City, that's all you can hope for. 

Onward. 

Bullies

The Cyclone defense was ready for SEMO.

The Redhawks only had two scoring drives, and they stood out on the drive chart:

3-0

3-3

4-3 Missed FG

3-5

11-75 TD

4-1 downs

2-2 INT 

7-11 

5-15

5-15 

6-15 fumble

7-53 FG

10-25 fumble

4-20 end of game 

The two scoring drives excepted, that's 56 plays for 112 yards and 3 turnovers. Yes, sir.

While a Power 4 team should dominate a good FCS team, we've witnessed plenty of white-knuckle games against FCS teams. It was nice to have a game follow the script.

On to the GoBlas. 

The Jimmy Era Begins

It is completely rational to predict that a team that brought in 70+ players through the portal to be terrible. The 4.5 win total O/U makes sense.

But if the new staff thought the team would be terrible, they would be trying to keep expectations down. This staff has publicly stated they want the defense to have a goal of holding opponents to 14 points or fewer this season. Not someday, but now. For context, only 5 teams gave up 14 points or fewer. 25 teams gave up 20 or less. The Haycock defense that frustrated a big swath of the Iowa State fan base gave up 20.17 last year. 

Challenging your team to average 14 when they are more likely to give up 40 will only bring misery to the team and fan base.

If the staff thinks they can keep teams to 20-ish points on average, the season shouldn't be terrible. 

Add in QB Jaylen Raynor, who gave the Cyclones fits the last two seasons, and the Iowa State offense should be able to chug out first downs at a minimum.

Looking at the schedule and the estimated win totals, ISU should win 2 in September (SEMO and Bowling Green), will be serious underdogs in 5 games (at TOE, Utah, at BYU, at Arizona, Kansas State), which leaves 5 coin flip games: WVU, OSU, at Baylor, Cincy, at UCF. Win 3 coin flips and pull one true upset and you are 6-6, get a bowl trip with extra practices and some momentum into '27.

Or nothing works on offense and ISU loses a bunch of 17-10 games to end 3-9 or 4-8. We've seen the "turnover the whole roster" plan not work at other places. A disaster is totally in the cards. 

In the end, how the team loses will be as important as how much the team wins. A losing season can still have a positive vibe, even in modern "Playoff or Bust" football.  

Here's hoping we are in a collective good mood on November 29th.  

Stunning

After our concerns about meeting expectations, our Cyclones demolish an over-matched Tennessee State team and disassemble a talented and athletic Kentucky team the Did. Not. Like. Ball. Pressure.

A first time viewer of Iowa State would not have guessed they were missing an All-American in how the team went after UK over the last 32 minutes.

Big 12 teams have deep game plans against the Cyclones, and they are sometimes successful. But the cliche is true- its a hard style to prepare for in practice. If the ball pressure and trapping can remain on point, second halves will hopefully continue to swing the Cyclones way.

Enjoy the ride, everyone. 

Now Comes The Hard Part

Meeting expectations is far more difficult that setting expectations.

This Iowa State squad has the tools to beat any team on any night- but your game has to be a little bit better than the other guy. If every player can have an average (for them) night each game, they can win most games. Raise everyone's game a notch and nobody has to be the hero. Above average will be enough.

But nobody can have a bad night, because it takes away your margin for error. Everyone else has to be A LOT BETTER. And that's hard to do on cue.

Win more possessions and enjoy the ride.

Epic

We just witnessed this most incredible back-to-back games in the storied, wacky history of Hilton Coliseum. 

First game: Bully a solid Kansas team, which blew you out a month earlier, on Saturday.  

Second game: Play a high-level, back and forth game with Houston, owners of a 50-4 record since joining the league. Lead at halftime, then fall behind 10 on a barrage of 3s and your own missed free-throws.

Straight from Central Casting enters a 17-4 run over the last 7 minutes to end the game. Winner. Drive home safely. 

Just find a way. Savor this weekend, friends.  

 

Creativity

The Fighting Scott Drews are always a tough out. Every player is 6'9" with a 9 foot wingspan, they tip a lot of passes and are relentless rebounders. You seldom get comfortable on offense. Even open shots lack rhythm.

Baylor's visit to Ames fit that script, yet the Cyclones built a lead going into the under 4 timeout. The Prevent Offense was great on running clock, but bad on scoring and turnovers, which brought the Bears back to the doorstep, yet the Cyclones survived. 

Sometimes you run downhill. Sometimes you grind. Wins count the same. Onward.  

Rarified Air

The Cyclones last four games have been blowout wins over team that Iowa State is just better than. The back half of the league schedule is much tougher than the front. 

The staff here at CSJ are struggling to find a basketball comp for the level of play we have seen over the last two weeks. Scoring at will on the offensive end, and holding teams well below their normal averages is rare. The best Tinsley/Fizer teams could play this way for a game or two, but not four in a row. 

Enjoy the ride, because this a special time. 

Nuance

The difference between listless and winning Cyclone basketball appears to be little things: the tempo of ball movement, anticipating defensive rotations, trapping at unexpected moments, hands in passing lanes, and finishing at the rim.

A triple-double from Mr. Jefferson always helps. What a talent. 

Good to have the winning formula back. Onward. 

Review

 The August power rankings of the B12, and the end of year finish:

 

Kansas State  -  Tech

Arizona State  -  Utah

Iowa State  -  BYU  

BYU  -  TCU

TCU  -  Iowa State

Baylor  -  Arizona

Tech  -  Houston

Utah  -  Arizona State

Colorado  -  Kansas State

Kansas  -  Cincy

Cincy  -  Kansas

UCF  -  Baylor

WVU  -  UCF

OSU  -  WVU

Houston  -  Colorado

Arizona  -  OSU

 

While we ISU fans were disappointed in the four game losing streak (the loss in Boulder was the worst B12 loss of the Campbell era) KSU may have been the biggest drop-off from August expectations. Baylor and Colorado have arguments,  but they retained their coaches for next year.

Tech achieved their potential, Arizona made a big jump up, and Houston is on a solid trajectory.

The league remains difficult to project from season to season. Don't bet on spots, kids. 

Admiration

A moment to admire the play of Josh Jefferson.

Iowa State would have probably found a way to best WVU without Jefferson on the floor, but his 10 point, 10 rebound, 10 assist triple-double made the win a lot easier.

 Jefferson's play, especially his passing skill from the high post, really drives the Iowa State offense. They are a very different offensive team when he is on the bench.

Enjoy Jefferson while we have him. His skills are both high level and rare.