Disaster Avoided

The 2025 El Assico was a repeat of the 2024 game, except for the ending: home team dominates the first quarter, but leaves points on the field after settling for field goals. Visiting team rights their ship, and crawls back into the game, finding them down by a field goal in the 4th.

But this year, the home team makes enough plays to eek out a win. ISU escapes with a 16-13 win that was mostly hard to watch.

Iowa State made vastly more errors that could have lost them the game: a drop in the end zone; 4 drops on third down, several that would have been chunk plays; PIs that would have been third down stops; the lone holding call of the game ruined a red zone possession; the player-blocked-into-punt-returner fiasco; and so on.

Iowa State was fortunate that the GoBlas were too inept on offense to really challenge them. A better opponent would have won this game by 14.

Hopefully the program hasn't peaked too early.  

Brace Yourself

We didn't realize it when CMC was hired, but a bargain had been struck, a bargain that requires a tax to be paid each year.

The benefit of the bargain? Competent football.

The tax? A loss to the Team Out East every September.

Almost every Cyclone fan would accept the trade in the long term, but the payment of The Tax grows more painful each fall.

It would be different if each loss came in the form of the 2016 beat-down- we would choose not to watch and mow the lawn instead. 

But no- the Cyclones have to outplay the Goblas each year, and then find a new ridiculous way to lose the same game.

It is fair that Iowa State fans might have a glimmer of hope given the results of each team's openers, but do not drink that drink so quickly- we all know how this will end. The exact verse will be different, but the song will remain the same.

Brace yourselves.

Standard

A quick review of the SUI-ISU series over the last decade:

2018- Can't move ball after first possession; hung around, lost by 10
2017- Score 41, gave up 44 to team that averaged 27 in the rest of their games
2016- Blowout
2015- Tied in 4th quarter, lose by 14
2014- The infamous "ice the kicker" win (ISU would go 2-10)
2013- Trailed most of game, late rally to lose by 7
2012- The 9-6 win in IC against an SUI team that went 4-8
2011- Bonkers 3OT 44-41 win over 7-6 SUI squad
2010- Blowout
2009- Blowout

Summary: 3 blowout losses, 4 hang-around-but-lose-anayway losses, 3 wins on the last play.

The last decade could be 0-10.

Given the football budgets of the two programs, 3-7 is about what one would expect out of Iowa State. But if the program expects to move to the middle of the Big 12 pack, they have to find a way to beat teams like SUI and Kansas State more than half the time. It's the next mountain to climb.

Hollywood

The best tale to tell today would be Coach Campbell returning to the scene of the most humiliating loss of his Iowa State tenure to win in commanding fashion, proving that the turnaround of Cyclone Football is complete.

But this ain't Hollywood.

SUI contains the ISU running game, forcing ISU to win with the pass. Mistakes are made, SUI gets too many short fields and wins 24-10.

Measuring Sticks

The benefit of starting the season with the same opponents as last year is that it's easy to measure progress.

The solid win over UNI was a vast departure from 2016. Improvement.

CSJ staff still isn't convinced that the ISU defense can stop a quality running game, and they will see a quality running game this week.

CSJ also isn't convinced the offense can score against a quality defense, and they will see a quality defense this week.

CSJ thinks the Cyclones lose by 14. So it goes. You get what you pay for.

Less Of The Same

We will see big improvement from the offensive line tonight, maybe even a competent running game, so the game won't be the wipeout many expect. There may even be moments of hope.

But there will be enough stupid mistakes at critical times to keep ISU on the losing end. Iowa by 10.

Step One: Success; Step Two?

Iowa State's win over UNI confirmed one thing: The Cyclones are able to beat quality FCS competition, and they did so without running the ball very much. Other have noted they didn't really try to run- no outside runs, no read-option- but they moved the ball well and scored above last season's average.

Now comes SUI. As usual, the GoBlas are favored, and they looked good dismantling Illinois State. Yet I won't be shocked if Iowa State beats them again, for two reasons:

- Iowa drops a road game for no good reason each season. They are a different team in the white jerseys

- Iowa often gets a case of Tight Helmet (and/or Tight Headset) against Iowa State. They shouldn't, but they clearly do. Iowa has been the better team overall in most of their losses to Iowa State since 1998, so some part of Iowa State's success has to be mental. If nothing else, Iowa State comes into this game each year knowing they have more at stake. ISU has fewer winnable games each year than Iowa, so they have to take advantage of every opportunity. Iowa views the game as Just Another Game- it rarely makes or breaks their season when it comes to bowl-eligibility. They don't have to put extra weight on it, so they don't.

Iowa State has won 3 of 4 in the series after Iowa won 3 straight, but the road team has won the last 3.

Iowa State's next challenge is to prove that they can beat Poor to Decent FBS teams, and Iowa is certainly in the Decent category. Until I see a running game emerge and how the reconstructed defense competes with a quality offense, I expect Iowa to win by 10. Unless they get Tight Helmet, the ISU by 3.

One Step Forward

It's wonderful when your team finds a way to win a game the other team isn't interested in finishing. Many of the predictions were predicated on "Iowa State can't finish, so Iowa should win", so it's nice to put that to bed for a little while.

I find it funny that it's now Iowa City that can only get a sellout when the visiting team sells a lot of tickets,  since that was an issue that dogged Cyclone fans for years.

Yet each win by Iowa State pushes the end of the football series closer to reality. Iowa isn't interested in this Cy-Hawk thing if it means losing to Little Brother half the time. Iowa State needs to get their licks in while it can.

Finishing Better Than They Start

At some point this Slow Start/Big Finish routine is going to bite our Cyclones on the butt, but for now it is quite the fun ride.

To watch the Hawkeyes lose is a most Cyclone way was fantastic. The second half is classic.

Cy-Hawk Trend

A friend who is smarter than me pointed out this interesting trend:

Kirk Ferentz is 2-5 in Ames.

His teams that won in Ames finished the year with 10 and 11 wins.

The teams that lost in Ames finished their years with 7, 7, 7, 6 and 1 win.

To look at it the other way, the ISU teams that have beaten Iowa in Ames have finished with 6, 3, 7, 7 and 4 wins. That trend is less definitive.

Since few see this year's Hawkeye club winning 8 or 9 more games, Iowa State should probably win.

Or rather, Iowa should probably find a way to lose.

The Out Iowa City Has Always Wanted

Looks like SUI can finally drop  Ames Community College off of its schedule.

They've been looking for an excuse since '98. Now they have one. It was fun while it lasted.

Rivals

Attitudes like this are why Iowa State fans relish beating Iowa so much.

There may never be an ISU win over Iowa that isn't considered an upset, because Iowa is the Best Football Program Without A National Title (in their minds). 

Hammer

It was delicious fun watching the Cyclones positively hammer the over-matched Hawkeyes (or GoBlas for you old- timers) in a game that was over well before halftime. For those of us who hadn't seen much of the season so far (thanks, Mediacom) we now understand what the fuss has been about. When these guys are on they can play.

The down side is that there is no team in the Big 12 as bad as Iowa- although Tech is close. That kind of effort will be needed every night to even approach .500. Something that approaches a point guard would help, too, as they Cyclones looked like lost children when Iowa broke out the half-court trap. Good teams don't give up 10+ points in the last 2:00 minutes.

But Friday gave us a peek at what could be- and that peek was damn fun.

Collapse

A casual cruise through the black and gold corners of the interwebs has revealed a shocking surprise: Losing to a team you view as a perennial punching bag reveals only changes to your team, but none about your opponent. Said punchingbag is a constant, frozen in time and space. Losing to them can only mean one thing: you are now a punching bag, too. I though the Hawkeyes would win because they would be a notch better than the Cyclones- I stand corrected. The Cyclones are still lousy; the change is that Iowa is now lousy too. Welcome to mediocrity, Hawkeyes!

The Usual

Iowa will graciously allow Iowa State to hang around Saturday, giving Cyclone fans hope and Hawkeye fans acid reflux. But a critical ISU mistake- Pick-6, punt return for TD, giving up 45+ yard TD run- will put the game out of reach. So it goes. Win or Lose, I have the Seneca game from 2000 on the Tivo. Thank you ESPN Classic.

Best Take of a Bad Trophy

Deadspin, of course.

Loser gets stuck with it, right?

Unthinkable

For a big chunk of my life, the idea that Iowa State was SUI's biggest rival was laughable. But now we are. Shocking.

The author gets in the usual "It's all about Iowa and Nebraska" dig, but rivalries have an ebb and flow. Ask SUI fan about Minnesota and Northwestern switching their roles. Beat good Mizzou teams a few times and it's on.

I'm just glad that Cyclone football has elevated itself to the point of being a threat in SUI fan's eyes. That's where you want to be.

Peter

Trailing

After the first weekend, ISU trails in The Contest ISU Should Never Win (aka the Cy-Hawk Series) 3-2. Volleyball won as expected so the weekend wasn't a total wash.

As the team with 'Home Field" has won each of the Series, ISU will now try to win it despite losing in football.

Since they spend half as much on sports as SUI, that will be a tough trick.

Peter