Stunning

After our concerns about meeting expectations, our Cyclones demolish an over-matched Tennessee State team and disassemble a talented and athletic Kentucky team the Did. Not. Like. Ball. Pressure.

A first time viewer of Iowa State would not have guessed they were missing an All-American in how the team went after UK over the last 32 minutes.

Big 12 teams have deep game plans against the Cyclones, and they are sometimes successful. But the cliche is true- its a hard style to prepare for in practice. If the ball pressure and trapping can remain on point, second halves will hopefully continue to swing the Cyclones way.

Enjoy the ride, everyone. 

Now Comes The Hard Part

Meeting expectations is far more difficult that setting expectations.

This Iowa State squad has the tools to beat any team on any night- but your game has to be a little bit better than the other guy. If every player can have an average (for them) night each game, they can win most games. Raise everyone's game a notch and nobody has to be the hero. Above average will be enough.

But nobody can have a bad night, because it takes away your margin for error. Everyone else has to be A LOT BETTER. And that's hard to do on cue.

Win more possessions and enjoy the ride.

Epic

We just witnessed this most incredible back-to-back games in the storied, wacky history of Hilton Coliseum. 

First game: Bully a solid Kansas team, which blew you out a month earlier, on Saturday.  

Second game: Play a high-level, back and forth game with Houston, owners of a 50-4 record since joining the league. Lead at halftime, then fall behind 10 on a barrage of 3s and your own missed free-throws.

Straight from Central Casting enters a 17-4 run over the last 7 minutes to end the game. Winner. Drive home safely. 

Just find a way. Savor this weekend, friends.  

 

Rarified Air

The Cyclones last four games have been blowout wins over team that Iowa State is just better than. The back half of the league schedule is much tougher than the front. 

The staff here at CSJ are struggling to find a basketball comp for the level of play we have seen over the last two weeks. Scoring at will on the offensive end, and holding teams well below their normal averages is rare. The best Tinsley/Fizer teams could play this way for a game or two, but not four in a row. 

Enjoy the ride, because this a special time. 

Making Shots

Three solid wins in Vegas for different reasons.

Outworked a physical St. John's team to win by one. They shots fell when they needed to fall.

Disrupted a Creighton team that can shoot the ball, but still misses some pieces.

Then came the 60 point second half that discombobulated Syracuse. The defense won the game, but every shot went in for a long stretch. It was amazing basketball to watch. 

This team has the horses to win multiple ways. Buckle up and enjoy the ride. 

Options

 A team out its two starting guards has a chance to win with 90 seconds left? Straight courage. 

Best shooter goes nuclear for 35 points? Legend.

Despite the loss to BYU, the team should have renewed confidence in their offensive options among the eight guys who normally play.

Rest everyone’s legs, prep for the eventual opponents and go make a run.

Grit

Apologies, all. This has been sitting in our drafts- didn't hit publish like the smart kids do. Here's some very belated thoughts:

Most Cyclone teams from the past would have folded under SUI's impressive first-half shooting barrage. Justified- it wasn't their night. The GoBlas can fill it up. So it goes.

But Iowa State adjusted, abandoned the trap for straight-up D, and hung around.

The game swung on a run that started with 6 minutes left in the game. Across 11 possessions, the GoBlas missed 8 straight shots and only got 4 free throws. ISU scored 17 points in the same span. Game.

The ability to play high end basketball on both offense and defense, even if only for a short spurt, are powerful tools. The grit and patience to keep grinding away, waiting for your opportunity, will keep our Cyclones in a lot of games. The GoBlas had an 87% probability with 11:30 left in the game, and were a 72% probability when the ISU run began. And then things changed.

Winning a game late in Iowa City? Priceless.

Courage

 A wild couple of weeks of Cyclone Basketball culminated if big wins in Kansas City.

The men shook off weeks of bad chemistry to earn two solid wins over Baylor and a decent effort against Kansas. They adjusted to the removal of a key cog in their game plan, and yet returned to the form that won them games up through mid-January. Adapting to sudden change takes both knowledgeable coaching and a willingness to adjust for the better.

The women's conference season and tournament title is just as remarkable. After losing two post players in January, the offensive plan was scrapped and the team reverted to the three-driven offense that had carried them for almost 30 years. This season was one of Fennely's better coaching jobs in his tenure. 

Having the conference MVP goes a long way. It's unfortunate that the best player in the Big 12 flies under the national radar because her game is so understated. She manages to get 21 and 10 every night without a single play that ends up on SportsCenter. It's low-key impressive. 

Now on to the tournaments. Both teams have manageable seeds, and can hopefully find enough offense to get to the second weekend. Regardless of their finishes, both teams earned athletic and mental victories this year.

Game on.

Variance

 Even when the men were playing well, they were prone to scoring droughts. Every hot streak could be met with a drought. 

By our math, a 60-54 was lost when the offense could only manage 9 points over their last 13 possessions while WVU managed to stay above 1 point per possession the rest of the way. 

If the Cyclones find a couple of buckets down the stretch, they probably pull it out.

They showed great courage to come out of half time and take the lead, but the last 7 minutes displayed the vulnerability this gritty but flawed team owns. 

The arc of the season changed when Grill tweaked his back reaching for a rebound against Texas. 

The good news is that they are in the tourney, and they way they play defense will give them a puncher’s chance against anyone. 

Chances

 It is a bit head spinning to consider where the Cyclones are compared to two seasons ago.

With 8 games to play, Iowa State has a puncher's chance at winning the league. Wild.

They will probably need to go 7-1 or 6-2 to pull it off, but to even have a shot at a ring is fantastic.

Of the six (!) teams with a decent chance at the title, we would put our nickel on the Jayhawk's square. They have the friendliest path, and will be favored in 5 or 6 of their last 7.

Buckle up.

Where we're at

 The good news is that Iowa State is going to be in every game this year. It's just going to come down to which team makes plays in the last four minutes.

So far, ISU has been on both sides of the end, and are now 2-2 in league road games. 

Still playing with house money.

Puncher's Chance

 Outside of a disaster in Johnson County (it wasn't the Gobla's Super Bowl, nope, no way, don't even suggest it), this Cyclone team has shown that it can go round-for-round with anyone. They've found a few more options on offense, so while they are hardly aesthetically pleasing to the basketball eye, they have avoided the droughts that plagued last year's team. They can win any game in any gym.

The Big XII is all-around ridiculous this year, so we doubt any game will be more than +10 either way. The Big Brains think 8 wins is enough for the tourney- any more will only improve the seeding. Stock up on Tums and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.

Review

One team surprised all of college basketball and its own fan base by overachieving for most of the season. They pulled two upsets in The Tournament, and came very close to an Elite Eight appearance, a rare bird in Cyclone basketball.

Another team played high level basketball all season, and came within a game of a share of the B12 title. Their season also ended on the cusp of the Elite Eight, an ending most fans would have been happy with in October.

In retrospect, this was a much more entertaining winter than Cyclone fans expected. Next season could be on the same level and, with some breaks, even more interesting.

Enjoy the good seasons when they appear, as we never know when a drought will return.

Astounding

 Of the scenarios we thought could play out this weekend, the one that happened was the least likely. We were clearly wrong on almost every point of our last post. Happy to be wrong.

The men's defensive effort discombobulated both LSU and Wisconsin on offense. Wisky ended their game Sunday with more turnovers than made baskets. Just masterful. Ugly, but effective.

The difference between Friday and Sunday could not have been more stark. The Friday nail-biter was reversed with a Sunday first-quarter avalanche that Georgia was never able to dig themselves out from under. 

Add in the upset on the other side of the bracket, and Iowa State is staring at undiscovered country of their own.

It's a lot to take in, but its a very fun ride.

Bad matchups

 Someone on the seeding committee was unimpressed with the Cyclones last two weeks.

They struggle against quality defensive teams, especially ones that are physical. Who did they draw in their first two NCAA games? Physical defensive teams, both in the top 25 on defensive metrics. They won't survive the weekend even if they find a way to beat LSU.

(The GoBlas, on the other hand, were all but given a free pass to the Sweet 16. They get to play two teams in the 60's defensively. They will hang 90+ in both games and cruise. Figures)

The women didn't fare much better. Potential second round matchup Georgia looks like Texas on paper, and we know how those games went. Add in the potential rematch against TOE, and I think it will be a short tourney run for the women, too.

As usual, I hope to be proven wrong.

Trends

 As noted by Travis Hines @TravisHines21 at the DMR, the Cyclones had a very healthy 1.29 PPP in the first half against KSU, which may have been the best half of the season. The second half was only .719.

But viewing the second half as a whole doesn’t tell the whole tale. The Cyclones managed 18 points in their first 18 possessions, which would have easily won the game if they could have maintained that pace. They were still up 10 with 9:02 left.

But then the bottom fell out. Over their last 13 possessions only 5 points were scored. That’s a PPP of .38. There were 5 turnovers in the last 13 possessions, which resulted in 5 KSU points and buckets of momentum. 

Frankly, the insane start to the game in some ways doomed the Cyclones. Scoring 13 points in your first 6 possessions (2.16 PPP!) lets your subconscious think the game is over in the first 4 minutes. Holding an early lead like that for the remainder of the game is harder than it looks, especially for a team that has been playing from behind for six weeks.

There was a load of good in that game to build from, but this team can only play one way to generate the points needed to win.

Data

Nearing the halfway mark of the Big 12 season, we should all firmly understand how Otz's crew has to play to have a chance to win in the league. 

Games like TCU? Nope.

Games like Stillwater? Yup.

If this crew is within 5 points with 4 minutes to go, they are going to win their share of games. But they don't get in that position when they chuck 50 jump shots and don't attack the rim. Playing defense like they care goes a long way too.

Turnaround

Seven new players and a 6-0 start, playing tough defense and running an offense that uses each player's strengths. This team has learned a lot in only six weeks of practice.

The portion of the fan base that was grumpy at Jamie "hiring one of his buddies" is noticeably quiet.

While we don't expect more than 6 wins in the B12 this year, it will be fun to watch, knowing the Cyclones can win on any night that enough threes find the bottom of the net.

Carry on, fellas.

Decisive

 Given the rapid movement and high profile openings in college basketball coaching jobs, Pollard looks smart for having a plan and acting on it early. While Coach Otz probably wasn't on the radar of a lot of AD's, he's not an unknown commodity. Someone would have come calling if Pollard had lingered.

Here's hoping things shake out well for Ames.