Percentages

Leaving Jack Trice made sense. UCF had just picked up a first down at midfield with only 2:10 left on the clock. The Golden Knights led 35-30. They had a 99% win probability. It made sense to go and get ahead of 61,498 others who would soon be walking to their cars.

CSJ staff has witnessed probably a couple hundred Cyclone games in Trice, but few had as wild an ending as the one the smart people getting to their cars early missed. That ending may be the craziest in Trice history, considering the stakes. Bedlam ensued. But the run continues.

Now a bye week for everyone to pause and take a breath. The last four games are harder on paper than the previous four, but the Cyclones have found different ways to win each game. They are determined problem solvers.

Improved health, especially on defense, may be the ingredient to carry our walk through The Undiscovered Country to the other side.

Enjoy the ride, everyone.

Steady Trip to Morgantown

Every expert was pointing to Iowa State's trip to Morgantown as a trap game, the point where the undefeated run comes to an end. The were right- night game, coming off a big win, theme night with sweet uniforms, all of it.

Iowa State didn't care.

After a TD on the initial drive, WVU's last 7 drives earned 10 points, 7 which came in garbage time.

For the game, the ISU defense gave up 2 points per possession, while the offense generated 3.1. Yes, please.

We repeat ourselves, but the defense will be the key down the stretch. Central Florida has the best rushing offense in the league. (WVU, which had everyone terrified, is fifth.) This game, the newest Big Game, may be won on that side of the ledger.

The crazies Iowa State stat: Opponents have only had 10 trips to the Red Zone on the ISU defense, and 3 of those trips were in Iowa City. 5 other games, 7 Red Zone trips. Crazy.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Expansion Wishes

Since rumors of expansion has risen again, here is who I would invite if I was King:

BYU- large, loyal, national, underrated fan base. Mega eyeballs. Scheduling around Sundays is not a deal-breaker.

Cincinnati- Big media town, travel partner/rival for West Virginia.

Central Florida- Every school gets to travel to (and recruit) Florida!

Tulane- Every school gets to travel to NOLA! Downside- Tulane might not want to associate with Tech academically.

I know, that would be 14. But the Big10111214, the ACC and the SEC all make 14 work. It can't be that hard.

Besides- when the next big shakeout comes down there won't be enough chairs for the Big Time Football Lotto Payout Table for every school that wants in. This group includes Iowa State. But squatters have rights, and it will be much harder for a league to toss out a member than to pull in a new one. Better to start on the inside.