Numbers

Iowa State has played football against 5 Power 4 teams. The offense is averaging 25.2 ppg. The D: 22 ppg

Opponent,  ISU offensive points scored, opponent defensive scoring avg:

Kansas State,  24, 27

TOE, 16, 18 

Arizona, 39, 24

Cincinnati,  30, 21

Colorado, 17, 31 

 

Opponent, Offensive points scored vs. ISU, opponent offensive avg:

Kansas State,  21, 32

TOE, 13, 29

Arizona, 14, 24

Cincinnati,  38, 31

Colorado, 24, 21

 

The best offensive performance to date was scoring 15 above AZ's average, but the game in Boulder was a big, big miss, scoring 14 under their average.

The defense has been much more consistent, contrary to the opinion of many fans. The GoBlas were held 16 under their average, but Cincy and CU both exceeded theirs. But the losses both required the opponent's offense have better than average days.

The offense has only exceeded the opponents defensive average twice, and the game in Cincy was a loss. 

On the whole, the defense is playing winning football, but the offense is keeping games close and giving the other guy a chance. That's a bad place to be.

Schedules

 This year should remind us that Strength of Schedule often comes down to luck.

As an example, let's look back at the B12 preseason media poll, where they actually finished, and the difference:

1 Utah 13 (-12)

2 KSU 8 (-6)

3 OSU 16 (-13)

4 Kansas 10 (-6)

5 Arizona 14 (-9)

6 Iowa State 2 (+4)

7 West Virginia 9 (-2)

8 UCF 15 (-7)

9 Tech 7 (+2)

10 TCU 6 (+4)

11 Colorado 4 (+7)

12 Baylor 5 (+7)

13 BYU 3 (+10)

14 Cincy 11 (+3)

15 Houston 12 (+3)

16 ASU 1 (+15)

The bottom eight teams in the preseason poll all finished better than expected, led by the Sun Devils. 

Iowa State was the only team in the top 8 to finish better than expected. Wow.

Time will tell if this year was an outlier, or if the order will jumble each year.

Based on the preseason, ISU was to play 9 games with a total SOS (in order of projected finish) of 72. They ended up playing a schedule of 89, and avoided 1, 2, 4 and 6. So it goes.

Nationally, Iowa State SOS was 47th. TOE was 53, despite playing in the impossibly rugged Big 10.

Since 2000, TOE has had an average SOS of 38, while ISU has battled a SOS of 25. ISU also had 5 seasons in the Top 10 of SOS. TOE had one, back in 2000. Those numbers are part of the reason that one team has averaged 8 wins this century, and the other has averaged 5.7.

Here's hoping ISU can improve their percentages.

Comparisons

The football world is already greasing the skids to ensure the B12 only receives one bid to the football playoffs.

"The B12 is a weak league" is the leading story, echoed especially loudly by our GoBla neighbors who support the Team Out East (TOE). A little perspective:

Using the Massey Ratings site, we can see rankings for entire conferences as a whole.

SEC 8.36

Big 10 8.10

Big 12 7.95

ACC 7.84

So the B10 is closer to the B12 than the SEC, and the B12 is closer to the ACC than the B10.

But here are the power rankings for the B10 West/Leaders in the past:

2023- 7.58

2022- 7.76

2021- 7.96

2020- 7.89

2019- 7.71

2018- 7.73

2017- 7.85

2016- 7.09

2015- 7.35

2014- 7.07

2013- 6.97

2012- 7.12

2011- 6.94

To summarize: in 13 seasons of the B10 West, 1 year that group had the same rating as the current B12. All the others were worse, often by a bunch.

End of math lesson.

Optimistic Start

Saturday was a lovely change of pace in the usually challenging series with UNI- an early lead revealed an Iowa State team that was shockingly better in all three phases of the game compared to the Panthers. A nice surprise all around.

Which brings us to the GoBlas. An argument can be made that outside of the 2016 debacle, CMC's crew has outplayed the TOE in the last five games, with only last year's win to show for it. It is the height of irony that a team that couldn't get out of its own way for most of the season (and tried to give the game away in the first quarter) strung together the most unlikely possession in Cyclone Football history: 21 plays, 99 3/4 yards, 11:49 off the clock for the winning TD. 

Hopefully all three units can avoid the killer mistake and find a way to beat a very talented but offensively flawed GoBla team.

Just Win, Baby.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

Brace Yourself

We didn't realize it when CMC was hired, but a bargain had been struck, a bargain that requires a tax to be paid each year.

The benefit of the bargain? Competent football.

The tax? A loss to the Team Out East every September.

Almost every Cyclone fan would accept the trade in the long term, but the payment of The Tax grows more painful each fall.

It would be different if each loss came in the form of the 2016 beat-down- we would choose not to watch and mow the lawn instead. 

But no- the Cyclones have to outplay the Goblas each year, and then find a new ridiculous way to lose the same game.

It is fair that Iowa State fans might have a glimmer of hope given the results of each team's openers, but do not drink that drink so quickly- we all know how this will end. The exact verse will be different, but the song will remain the same.

Brace yourselves.

Bad matchups

 Someone on the seeding committee was unimpressed with the Cyclones last two weeks.

They struggle against quality defensive teams, especially ones that are physical. Who did they draw in their first two NCAA games? Physical defensive teams, both in the top 25 on defensive metrics. They won't survive the weekend even if they find a way to beat LSU.

(The GoBlas, on the other hand, were all but given a free pass to the Sweet 16. They get to play two teams in the 60's defensively. They will hang 90+ in both games and cruise. Figures)

The women didn't fare much better. Potential second round matchup Georgia looks like Texas on paper, and we know how those games went. Add in the potential rematch against TOE, and I think it will be a short tourney run for the women, too.

As usual, I hope to be proven wrong.

Double

 Cyclone fans enjoyed a remarkable pair of nights in Hilton. Given how many painful losses we have witnesses to the Goblas, it was fun to hand down a pair of solid wins. 

For the men to hammer the Goblas the way the did was fantastic, especially with Hilton at full roar. If any of the current players didn’t understand the potential of the building at its best, they do now. And the fan base will be returning each night to help carry the team across the finish. 

It’s good to be relevant again. Enjoy the ride.

Yips

The loss to the Goblas was the result of a bad habit the Cyclone offense has developed: the yips once they cross the 50.

Against Wazzou: 8 trips across the 50, 3 TDs.
Against UNI: 8 trips (in regulation): 1 TD
Against SUI: 8 trips: 2 TDs, both on long passes.

Sense a trend? Fix the yips and this team will be a problem in the B12.

But offensive yips will limit this team to 5 or 6 wins rather than 9 or 10.

Measuring Sticks

The benefit of starting the season with the same opponents as last year is that it's easy to measure progress.

The solid win over UNI was a vast departure from 2016. Improvement.

CSJ staff still isn't convinced that the ISU defense can stop a quality running game, and they will see a quality running game this week.

CSJ also isn't convinced the offense can score against a quality defense, and they will see a quality defense this week.

CSJ thinks the Cyclones lose by 14. So it goes. You get what you pay for.

Long Fall

If you follow the links for Iowa and Iowa State, you will find that at the moment both teams combine to be favored in exactly one conference game, Kansas over ISU in Ames.

Ouch.

We Clonies are used to the perpetual underdog role. That is a new experience for fans in Iowa City. Another 2-6 or worse year- I hear talk of 0-8 being a real possibility- and things will get real ugly for Coach-For-Life Kirk.

The goal for the '13 Cyclones: Continue the forward momentum, because there isn't much in Iowa City.

Wednesday Linkfest

A Humorous B12 Powerranking. The good news- we aren't 12th!

Sagarin (I know, heavily weighted towards last year until October) has us #78, one ahead of #79 CU. SUI is #36.

The DM Register has scads of photos you might want to look at. Stick to the ones from before '83 and after '97. Of course, everything is for sale.

KF claims the ISU game is omportant to him. SUI fans continue to question that.

All kinds of Gobla hilarity here. Stanzi wins the Heisman in '10? 6 TDs vs. ISU Saturday?

ISU fans are worryworts in comparison.

That's enough for today.

Peter

Sunshine?

Hlas sees sunshine in the ISU men's program. That would be a nice change.

Chuck sees Lucca as helping Brackins, but not as much as Brackins helps Lucca. I concur.

Barring horrendous injuries, they've got to be better. Perhaps even good enough to beat the Goblas.

Peter

Discount?

Tickets to the bi-annual Gobla choke job will only be $60, $5 less than last year.

While down from the $90 ISU charged for the stunning TD-Free win over the 20 point favorite Goblas in 2007, it will still be a steep price to pay for the black and gold crowd. Charging visiting fans more that $25 to watch their 27-point-favorites lose to a glorified community college is just rubbing it in.

It's hardly our fault that Kirk's boys get a case of tight helmet at Trice. It's not like ISU has ever beaten SUI- the Goblas just find a way to lose.

Peter