Advantage

The list of teams that have come into Trice and had their ground game limited by the ISU defense is long. Those teams then have to hand the ball to their QB and ask him to find a way.

Often, the QB isn't up to the task,  he makes some critical mistakes and the Cyclones win. Bachmeier was up to the task, both passing and throwing.

Most of the 50/50 plays went BYU's way, and a great first half by the ISU offense was wasted. The second half offense was a disaster: 3-and-out; Red Zone settle for a FG; pick six; Red Zone TO on downs; Red Zone INT.

There's plenty of blame to pass around, but the offense absolutely could have overcome Bachmeier's heroics. But BYU also looks like a team that has the winning pixie dust, just as ISU had handfuls of it in '24. 

You just have to keep working your plan, get the percentages on your side, and hope the dice come up 7. 

Options

 A team out its two starting guards has a chance to win with 90 seconds left? Straight courage. 

Best shooter goes nuclear for 35 points? Legend.

Despite the loss to BYU, the team should have renewed confidence in their offensive options among the eight guys who normally play.

Rest everyone’s legs, prep for the eventual opponents and go make a run.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Leveling Up

One narrative from the B12 FB season has been the struggles of "The New Four" against the legacy B12 teams. As we write this, the group is 4-17, with a bunch of blowouts in the losses.

Iowa State handled BYU Saturday with even more ease compared to their win over Cincinnati last month. Each program may be tough outs in the future, but this year the group lacks the beef in the trenches to be competitive week after week.

Saturday's win was a fun ride from the Cyclone side of the field. We witnessed both long drives and big plays on 5 TD drives, and a stingy defense that surrendered only 14 points, while gaining an INT, 3 Over-On-Downs and 4 punts. A solid day all around.

The best news was an offensive play sheet that featured lots of misdirection and throws down the field. More, please. The aggressive passing game clearly opens up the run game. 

Now comes two tough match-ups: A Texas squad that has a shot at the playoff, a KSU team that has been scary good for most of the season. Win either and the bowl seed jumps. 

But being bowl-eligible going into the Texas game is a huge bonus. Just hang around until the 4th quarter and perhaps UT makes a fatal error on a cold Ames night.

Age

 A few mistakes and the inability to adjust to defensive surprises doomed our Cyclones against second-year upstart Kansas.

But the CSJ staff noticed a funny detail when comparing the respective rosters:

Iowa State has 21 Freshmen or Sophomores in the 44 player two-deep.

Kansas only has 6.

Experience overwhelmed youth in an otherwise even game. That will happen.

Hopefully our Cyclones won't be a slump-buster for BYU late Saturday night.

Expansion Wishes

Since rumors of expansion has risen again, here is who I would invite if I was King:

BYU- large, loyal, national, underrated fan base. Mega eyeballs. Scheduling around Sundays is not a deal-breaker.

Cincinnati- Big media town, travel partner/rival for West Virginia.

Central Florida- Every school gets to travel to (and recruit) Florida!

Tulane- Every school gets to travel to NOLA! Downside- Tulane might not want to associate with Tech academically.

I know, that would be 14. But the Big10111214, the ACC and the SEC all make 14 work. It can't be that hard.

Besides- when the next big shakeout comes down there won't be enough chairs for the Big Time Football Lotto Payout Table for every school that wants in. This group includes Iowa State. But squatters have rights, and it will be much harder for a league to toss out a member than to pull in a new one. Better to start on the inside.