Numbers

Iowa State has played football against 5 Power 4 teams. The offense is averaging 25.2 ppg. The D: 22 ppg

Opponent,  ISU offensive points scored, opponent defensive scoring avg:

Kansas State,  24, 27

TOE, 16, 18 

Arizona, 39, 24

Cincinnati,  30, 21

Colorado, 17, 31 

 

Opponent, Offensive points scored vs. ISU, opponent offensive avg:

Kansas State,  21, 32

TOE, 13, 29

Arizona, 14, 24

Cincinnati,  38, 31

Colorado, 24, 21

 

The best offensive performance to date was scoring 15 above AZ's average, but the game in Boulder was a big, big miss, scoring 14 under their average.

The defense has been much more consistent, contrary to the opinion of many fans. The GoBlas were held 16 under their average, but Cincy and CU both exceeded theirs. But the losses both required the opponent's offense have better than average days.

The offense has only exceeded the opponents defensive average twice, and the game in Cincy was a loss. 

On the whole, the defense is playing winning football, but the offense is keeping games close and giving the other guy a chance. That's a bad place to be.

A Big Win on A Big Stage

The CSJ staff was concerned gong into the game in Dublin that we would watch another chapter of our Cyclones faltering under the bright lights on the big stages: B12 Title games, top tier bowl games, and games against the GoBlas. End of the first quarter, and ISU is down 17-0 or 21-3, and the game is over.

A solid start in the rain and a 7-0 lead was reassuring, with the opponent making the critical early mistake. Once the offense found its rhythm, they controlled the line of scrimmage and ground out first downs. 9 first downs running, 9 first downs passing. Only generating 4.2 YPP (while giving up 6.7) is concerning, but bigger plays will come.

While the defense was leaky in big plays, they were also nails at key moments. The unit forced 3 three-and-outs, and another 3 turnovers on downs, one at their own 5. The stop with 8 minutes left was the pivot point of the game.

Lots of positives, and much to work on. The whole was a great moment in front of the college football universe. Well done. 

 

Running Up and Down Hill

When our Cyclones are forced into a half-court game,  they can look as if they are running uphill. Everything is hard, the timing is off, simple shots roll out instead of in.

When they are creating live-ball turnovers or getting stops and live rebounds, they are much more dangerous, and score at a better clip, which only energizes effort on the defensive end. The floor tips, and the Cyclones are running downhill.

ISU had the uphill climb for about 32 minutes against Kansas State, which kept the tempo slow, and forced the half court game. Every drive was met by two or three defenders, and hard shots refused to go in. Tough possessions on offense stole momentum, and the defensive effort seemed a step slow, as if KSU was full of surprises. 

Losers of 3 of their last 5, Iowa State is in a funk. Lawrence is a tough place to right oneself.

Another Week Walking The Undiscovered Country

Members of the CSJ staff quietly held their breath during the KSU game, waiting for the kick to the privates to arrive, to witness yet another pratfall in a key moment.

The pratfall never came. The Cyclones won an important game.

The 10-win level has been achieved, and a trip to the new, expanded, Big 12 title game has been secured. New territory for our Cyclones to explore.

It has been a fun right for the most part. Enjoy the next chapters.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Key Wins Equal Key Week

 Iowa State rode Hilton to two wins over KSU and KU, which keeps doors open for opportunity later in the year.

The Cyclones are still in play for: 

- A Regular Season Big 12 Championship, which they haven't won since 2001.

- A double buy in the now 14-team Big 12 Tournament. Fresh legs on Thursday.

- A friendly seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State is +1 in the old Tim Floyd rankings. 

With roadies to Baylor and Texa$ this week, they are playing with house money. An 0-2 week isn't a deal-breaker, but even one win keeps all of the above doors open. 

Go be great.

Anger and Joy

The staff of CSJ spent their Turkey Days listening to many disgruntled Cyclone fans who were eager to complain about the missed opportunities in the loss to Texa$. 

We understand they were eager to send UT to the SEC with 4 losses in the last 6 meetings, but consider how far the program and fan base has come. It wasn't long ago that Iowa State lost their first 7 meetings, and had 1-11 and 2-14 records against Austin. Suddenly we expect to win each matchup.

Simply put, Texa$ is both running towards an SEC payday and running away from schools like TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State. Athletes that wear the burnt orange can make peace with losing to a equal like Oklahoma, but losing to the other members of "The Angry Eight" is not what they signed on for.

We suspect that within four years the Texa$ administration will be caught wooing other schools for The Super League in a chase for even more dollars and an avoidance of losses to schools like Mississippi State and Kentucky. They helped blow up the Southwest Conference, tried to blow the Big 12 up twice, and will do the same to the SEC. It's all they know.

But Texas doesn't know snow. 

The weather that our staff had hoped would greet the Longhorns in Ames appeared in Manhattan a week later, and assisted the Cyclones in one of the most ridiculous wins in team history. 

35 plays, 42 points, 5 TD plays of over 60 yards, and a running back totaling the 4th best game in program history in his first start.

The 6 inches of snow on the field make life difficult for defenders as they couldn't use their normal tackling form. Rather than coming in waist high and wrapping up, all they could do is try to tackle while standing up. It can be done, but it's hard. 

Iowa State allowed 35 points on 102 (!) K-State plays, but none of them were backbreakers. The KSU defense allowed nothing but back-breakers. Each missed tackle was 6 points. 

It's a game that ISU fans will discuss forever, and the CSJ staff regrets not attending in person, because it will soon be legendary. 

It's a fun boat to be sailing.

 

Leveling Up

One narrative from the B12 FB season has been the struggles of "The New Four" against the legacy B12 teams. As we write this, the group is 4-17, with a bunch of blowouts in the losses.

Iowa State handled BYU Saturday with even more ease compared to their win over Cincinnati last month. Each program may be tough outs in the future, but this year the group lacks the beef in the trenches to be competitive week after week.

Saturday's win was a fun ride from the Cyclone side of the field. We witnessed both long drives and big plays on 5 TD drives, and a stingy defense that surrendered only 14 points, while gaining an INT, 3 Over-On-Downs and 4 punts. A solid day all around.

The best news was an offensive play sheet that featured lots of misdirection and throws down the field. More, please. The aggressive passing game clearly opens up the run game. 

Now comes two tough match-ups: A Texas squad that has a shot at the playoff, a KSU team that has been scary good for most of the season. Win either and the bowl seed jumps. 

But being bowl-eligible going into the Texas game is a huge bonus. Just hang around until the 4th quarter and perhaps UT makes a fatal error on a cold Ames night.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

The Problem

 In three conference games, Iowa State is averaging 14.7 points. The 24 they scored against Baylor looks like an explosion in hindsight- they have only mustered 11 against Kansas and 9 against Kansas State.

Kansas has given up 42 and 38 in their other two B12 games. 

And yet- all three games were winnable with even slightly better execution- complete a pitch and catch on third down, hit the original hole rather than dancing around the backfield hoping to find a better one, etc. - and the team is 2-1 or 3-0 and all is right with the world.

The good news is there are lots of winnable games ahead on the schedule. But any win will require better performances on the offensive side of the ball or we have to quickly shift our attention to hoops like the Bad Old Days.

Trends

 As noted by Travis Hines @TravisHines21 at the DMR, the Cyclones had a very healthy 1.29 PPP in the first half against KSU, which may have been the best half of the season. The second half was only .719.

But viewing the second half as a whole doesn’t tell the whole tale. The Cyclones managed 18 points in their first 18 possessions, which would have easily won the game if they could have maintained that pace. They were still up 10 with 9:02 left.

But then the bottom fell out. Over their last 13 possessions only 5 points were scored. That’s a PPP of .38. There were 5 turnovers in the last 13 possessions, which resulted in 5 KSU points and buckets of momentum. 

Frankly, the insane start to the game in some ways doomed the Cyclones. Scoring 13 points in your first 6 possessions (2.16 PPP!) lets your subconscious think the game is over in the first 4 minutes. Holding an early lead like that for the remainder of the game is harder than it looks, especially for a team that has been playing from behind for six weeks.

There was a load of good in that game to build from, but this team can only play one way to generate the points needed to win.

Steady

 Coming into the game with Kansas State, we knew three things about the Cyclones:

-They could avoid losing to an FCS team

-They could blow out teams in the bottom 10% of FBS

-They could find ways to lose against ranked teams.

Kansas State doesn't fit any of the above categories. They have the talent to be bowl eligible, but have weaknesses that may keep them from getting there. Would ISU find a way to win, or would they muddle along and try to win on the last possession?

The results were the reverse, as the Cyclones put the game away early, and prevented KSU from making it a game in the second half. That was enjoyable.

Oklahoma State will be a much stiffer test, and have been Kryptomite to Iowa State's October magic. But the performance in Manhattan makes a win against the Cowboys plausible.

Smothered

 Kansas State gained 62 yards on their first possession, but were stoned in their four plays inside the 10. 

They then gained 87 yards across the remaining 11 possessions in the game, and failed to score. Their second best possession was 7 plays for 28 yards and a turnover on downs. They gave up 5 3-and-outs. 

While it was fun watching the offense floor it when they had their chances, the job done by the defense was spectacular, and gives Cyclone fans hope in a rather important game in Austin on Friday.

All gas, no brakes.

Giddy. Up.

An impressive second half in Manhattan pushed Iowa State back into the conversation for a conference title. ISU shouldn't have lost to K State back in the first week of January, but the way the Wildcats have played in the league takes that game out of "bad loss" category.

Keep winning and cross our collective fingers that the needed losses come to pass.

Hopefully the home loss to TCU won't block the Cyclones from a title. This is more fun than guessing if ISU will avoid the Wednesday game.

Adjustments

Kansas State entered Saturday's game in the top 10 for defensive efficiency- and the way they denied the drive befuddled Iowa State's offense. If adjustments were being made, they were not apparent until the second half.

It also took a full half for the Cyclones to realize that fouls were not going to be called on the defense, so you might as well get rough with the Wildcats. Rough they got, and physical defense helped get them a 7 point lead with 5 minutes to play. Had that change come in the first half, perhaps KSU never builds their 11 point half-time lead.

The last three offensive possessions were empty, and the last ten possessions resulted in only 6 points. That is sub-optimal.

But it also means they are very close. Small improvements move losses into the win column.

Fitting

There was only one proper way to end a losing streak against an opponent that was full of missteps, errors and anguish: by delivering some anguish of your own.

Any Cyclone fan watching that game assumed it was over down 17 with 12:30 left in the 4th. The computers put KSU's win percentage at 98%, which might have been too low.

And yet- they found a way to win, as unlikely as that win was. The crew in purple got the long, slow trip home to ponder what if, and what's next.

Progress isn't linear, but I like the trend.

Playoff Hockey

It's hard to explain the difference between regular-season hockey and playoff hockey, but you know it when you see it. It is something you can't prepare for; you have to experience it first hand.

The Cyclones got that first-hand experience Saturday night in Austin. A talented team playing for a Championship berth took the heads off another team that wasn't ready for the moment.

I suspect the next time this team has a similar opportunity the outcome will be different. It may not result in a victory, but the game won't be over in the first 10 minutes.

Saturday's game against will teach us a lot about the mental progress of the program. Here's hoping they exorcise the K-State ghost from their system.

7-5

The CMJ staff sees a 7-5 year for the Cyclones in 2018.

Wins over South Dakota State, Akron, Tech, Kansas, Baylor, and two out of Okie State, West Virginia, Texas and K-State.

The defense will be solid again, but I'll believe the OL is ready to consistently run block when I see it. And it's hard to be +10 in turnover margin two years in a row.

The '17 squad was luckier than average than the Iowa State team, too. No major injuries, when one QB flaked out the backup turned out to be great, forcing a turnover when they really needed one, etc. Some of those things will revert to the mean this year.

But they should keep every game close, which will be fun, if frustrating. Enjoy the ride.

Tradition

A typical Cyclone football team of the past would follow an epic win with an inexplicable loss.

The 1990 team followed their win in Norman with a blowout loss at home to Nebraska and a horrid loss on the road to Kansas State. The next year KSU went 7-4 and went to a bowl game, so that win was an early sign of progress for Snyder.

The great 2005 team allowed Baylor to break a 37 game B12 road losing streak in Ames.

I expect a long slog on a wet track against KU. Here's hoping we aren't too grumpy at the end.

Finding Yet Another Way To Lose

This week: Fumble on three of your last four possessions, including with 10 seconds left on the opponent's 30!

While this isn't the biggest margin given up by ISU ('92 at home to Kansas, up 45-14, lost 50-47) this was the most painfull, since that KU team finished 8-4. K-State probably ends 5-7.

In the big picture, the Cyclones have been blowing second half leads for 35 years under 6 different coaches- why would changing staffs result in wins?