Disaster Avoided

The 2025 El Assico was a repeat of the 2024 game, except for the ending: home team dominates the first quarter, but leaves points on the field after settling for field goals. Visiting team rights their ship, and crawls back into the game, finding them down by a field goal in the 4th.

But this year, the home team makes enough plays to eek out a win. ISU escapes with a 16-13 win that was mostly hard to watch.

Iowa State made vastly more errors that could have lost them the game: a drop in the end zone; 4 drops on third down, several that would have been chunk plays; PIs that would have been third down stops; the lone holding call of the game ruined a red zone possession; the player-blocked-into-punt-returner fiasco; and so on.

Iowa State was fortunate that the GoBlas were too inept on offense to really challenge them. A better opponent would have won this game by 14.

Hopefully the program hasn't peaked too early.  

Niner

The Cyclones too what looked to be a challenging game- a possible Ireland hangover, a quality FCS team with a chip on its shoulder- and quickly sucked all of the drama out of the plot by scoring on its first nine possessions. 

The team looked sharp in every phase, and forced the South Dakota QB to make throws. He couldn't deliver.

Mauser has found a great rhythm to his play calling, and at times has defenses on skates. The GoBlas have a lot of sets to cover in their practices this week. 

In Ames, the mantra of the week should be: "Do your Job. Find a way". The six game home losing streak in the series needs to end.

 

Grit

Apologies, all. This has been sitting in our drafts- didn't hit publish like the smart kids do. Here's some very belated thoughts:

Most Cyclone teams from the past would have folded under SUI's impressive first-half shooting barrage. Justified- it wasn't their night. The GoBlas can fill it up. So it goes.

But Iowa State adjusted, abandoned the trap for straight-up D, and hung around.

The game swung on a run that started with 6 minutes left in the game. Across 11 possessions, the GoBlas missed 8 straight shots and only got 4 free throws. ISU scored 17 points in the same span. Game.

The ability to play high end basketball on both offense and defense, even if only for a short spurt, are powerful tools. The grit and patience to keep grinding away, waiting for your opportunity, will keep our Cyclones in a lot of games. The GoBlas had an 87% probability with 11:30 left in the game, and were a 72% probability when the ISU run began. And then things changed.

Winning a game late in Iowa City? Priceless.

The other side of the collapse

As a fan base that as been on the losing side of second half collapses, it's great to be on the winning side of one. Pulling it off in Iowa City is a nice touch.

Winning 4 of 6 at Kinnick is also insane, considering ISU has lost every El Assico in Ames since 2011. Hate it when that happens.

Enjoy your glass of GoBla tears.

The Usual

 Iowa State will outgain and outplay SUI, but will make a creative mistake that will hand the game to the GoBlas. 

Just like every year. 

16-13 SUI. 

Steps

Another season opener, another underwhelming result, another typical September game for the CMC regime.

The start couldn't have been better. Two deep balls against a defence that was stacking the box is to be applauded. Bravo.

The offense was a little herky-jerky, but we suspect UND was determined not to lose the game on the ground. The offensive line isn't ready to win situations like that.

But enough questions remain on defense and the offensive line to limit the upside of this group. A solid but uninspiring squad. 7 wins is still our guess.

It's wild that CMC has 5 wins against OU and Texa$ combined, but only 1 against the GoBlas.

Our Cyclone nutcup stands ready to help witness another new and awful way to lose to SUI. Have plenty of your favorite beverage on stand by. It will be needed.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Not Enough, Again

There were several seasons in the late 1980's and 1990's when the margin between Iowa State and Oklahoma wasn't very big. The Cyclones would keep the game close (see '89, '92, '95, '98, and of course the win in '90)- but OU would find a way to win.

The TOE series is the same way. 

The series is much more competitive than the record over the last 20 games (7-13), but the TOE is so often just enough better to get the trophy. 

We hope the Cyclones can get a win or two in the series before the GoBlas are promoted to The Super Duper League and the football series ends forever.

Another Turning Point

The first turning point of the season was the trip to Iowa City. Fortunately, the Goblas weren't good enough to take advantage of all of Iowa State's mistakes, and the Cyclones got to bring home the ugly trophy.

Mistakes allowed Baylor to leave Ames with a win.

Given the balance of the B12 this year, a case can be made that every league game will be a turning point. But the trip to Lawrence will determine if our Cyclones will still have a shot at greatness, or will have to hustle to become bowl-eligible. 

Kansas comes in gaining 7.2 YPP (#7 nationally), while ISU is generating only 5 YPP (#50). Granted, ISU has faced two Top 10 defenses in their first four games, but that number is going to have to jump to win games in this league.

On defense the coin flips. ISU yields only 3.7 YPP, good for #7 (but that number is distorted by the terrible Iowa and Ohio offenses), while KU yields 6.3 YPP, #109 in the country, similar to the 6.6 that Ohio yields. 

The ISU defense is by far the best that KU has seen this year. Hopefully they can keep KU in the 20's and not the 40's. 

Which puts the onus on the offense to play a clean game, crank out first downs and score TDs in the Red Zone. If the offense can be consistent and score, this should be a win. 

If the offense makes the same kinds of mistakes the unit made against Iowa and Baylor- hang on to your butts.

Yips

The loss to the Goblas was the result of a bad habit the Cyclone offense has developed: the yips once they cross the 50.

Against Wazzou: 8 trips across the 50, 3 TDs.
Against UNI: 8 trips (in regulation): 1 TD
Against SUI: 8 trips: 2 TDs, both on long passes.

Sense a trend? Fix the yips and this team will be a problem in the B12.

But offensive yips will limit this team to 5 or 6 wins rather than 9 or 10.

Bullet. Dodged.

Few will recall the defense holding UNI to 33 rushing yards, one red-zone trip and 6 points in regulation.

All will remember the bumbling, stumbling offensive performance. One step forward, one step sideways, one shot in the foot. Solid on first and second down, incompetent on third or fourth. Dynamic between the 20's, Keystone Cops in the red zone. Four great plays in Tempo force a UNI time out, so never run Tempo the rest of the game.

We understand that the first game against a (supposedly) overmatched opponent is an opportunity to get a bunch of things on tape, and run players, formations and plays in new combinations. But at some point in the second half you have to focus on the whole point of the afternoon: Win the dang game.

Despite the offenses best attempts, Iowa State did win the game, almost on accident. They all count the same, even if the Russian judge would have hated it.

Two weeks until the Goblas arrive in the 515, and so much on offense to repair. Even though betting is now legal in Iowa, there is no way you should touch this one. Still too much in the unknown.

Standard

A quick review of the SUI-ISU series over the last decade:

2018- Can't move ball after first possession; hung around, lost by 10
2017- Score 41, gave up 44 to team that averaged 27 in the rest of their games
2016- Blowout
2015- Tied in 4th quarter, lose by 14
2014- The infamous "ice the kicker" win (ISU would go 2-10)
2013- Trailed most of game, late rally to lose by 7
2012- The 9-6 win in IC against an SUI team that went 4-8
2011- Bonkers 3OT 44-41 win over 7-6 SUI squad
2010- Blowout
2009- Blowout

Summary: 3 blowout losses, 4 hang-around-but-lose-anayway losses, 3 wins on the last play.

The last decade could be 0-10.

Given the football budgets of the two programs, 3-7 is about what one would expect out of Iowa State. But if the program expects to move to the middle of the Big 12 pack, they have to find a way to beat teams like SUI and Kansas State more than half the time. It's the next mountain to climb.

Hollywood

The best tale to tell today would be Coach Campbell returning to the scene of the most humiliating loss of his Iowa State tenure to win in commanding fashion, proving that the turnaround of Cyclone Football is complete.

But this ain't Hollywood.

SUI contains the ISU running game, forcing ISU to win with the pass. Mistakes are made, SUI gets too many short fields and wins 24-10.

Unknowns

Four minutes of football were not enough to get a feel for the 2018 Cyclones, even if the game did not count. Now the team will have to work out its first game issues in Iowa City. Super.

The fans of The Best Football Program Without A National Championship probably see a blowout win like Iowa State's last visit, and given the B12's performance last week, (Tech, Texas, The State of Kansas) who can blame them?

Gap Closed

It was nice to push The Team From Out East to their limit for a change. The talent gap has closed, and the knowledge of what the plan is has clearly improved from 12 games ago.

But the Cyclones still found a way to lose a game they should have won.

Horseshoes and hand grenades is ISU's strength under Campbell. At some point they have to push through.

But it's more fun to be standing at the corner than looking for a corner ahead.

Measuring Sticks

The benefit of starting the season with the same opponents as last year is that it's easy to measure progress.

The solid win over UNI was a vast departure from 2016. Improvement.

CSJ staff still isn't convinced that the ISU defense can stop a quality running game, and they will see a quality running game this week.

CSJ also isn't convinced the offense can score against a quality defense, and they will see a quality defense this week.

CSJ thinks the Cyclones lose by 14. So it goes. You get what you pay for.

Baseline

Hopefully the All-White uniform combo is now so tainted it will never be worn again. It was 11 White Flags of Surrender running around last night.

I am optimistic that Campbell will have a better start than 4-19, like another now worshiped coach began his tenure back in the last century.

We now have some solid baseline performance data. Get back to work.

Less Of The Same

We will see big improvement from the offensive line tonight, maybe even a competent running game, so the game won't be the wipeout many expect. There may even be moments of hope.

But there will be enough stupid mistakes at critical times to keep ISU on the losing end. Iowa by 10.

Our Lady Of Perpetual Disappointment

A program like Iowa State can't consistently give up 4th quarter leads if it's going to get anywhere.

The loss to Okie State was the third game just this year they probably should have won.

Five first downs in the second half isn't going to do it. Iowa and Toledo were similar stories.

Same some, different verse, different decade.

Step One: Success; Step Two?

Iowa State's win over UNI confirmed one thing: The Cyclones are able to beat quality FCS competition, and they did so without running the ball very much. Other have noted they didn't really try to run- no outside runs, no read-option- but they moved the ball well and scored above last season's average.

Now comes SUI. As usual, the GoBlas are favored, and they looked good dismantling Illinois State. Yet I won't be shocked if Iowa State beats them again, for two reasons:

- Iowa drops a road game for no good reason each season. They are a different team in the white jerseys

- Iowa often gets a case of Tight Helmet (and/or Tight Headset) against Iowa State. They shouldn't, but they clearly do. Iowa has been the better team overall in most of their losses to Iowa State since 1998, so some part of Iowa State's success has to be mental. If nothing else, Iowa State comes into this game each year knowing they have more at stake. ISU has fewer winnable games each year than Iowa, so they have to take advantage of every opportunity. Iowa views the game as Just Another Game- it rarely makes or breaks their season when it comes to bowl-eligibility. They don't have to put extra weight on it, so they don't.

Iowa State has won 3 of 4 in the series after Iowa won 3 straight, but the road team has won the last 3.

Iowa State's next challenge is to prove that they can beat Poor to Decent FBS teams, and Iowa is certainly in the Decent category. Until I see a running game emerge and how the reconstructed defense competes with a quality offense, I expect Iowa to win by 10. Unless they get Tight Helmet, the ISU by 3.