Running uphill

Another loss, another disappointing game for an offense that seems to be running uphill.

Six trips into the Red Zone, 19 points. Sub-optimal. 

-1.8 YPP. Teams almost never win when getting out gained at that rate.

18-37 for 186 (numbers inflated by the last possession) is not the QB play that Iowa State needs to win games.

The defense was torched for 300 yards of rushing, but only gave up 25 points. 

And yet- Iowa State had the ball in the Red Zone with 35 seconds left. 

The offense moves the ball and generates opportunities to score, but falls apart in the big moments.

Last season, they made plays when they needed to make plays. This year, the offense has reverted to Cyclone football of the past.

For 20 years there was a running joke in the tailgate lots that if the defense can stay below 24 points, Iowa State probably wins, and if the offense can score more than 24 points, the Cyclones probably win. 

under almost any yardstick, the game against ASU was a loss on both sides of the ball. And yet- it was this close to being a slump-buster.  Frustrating. 

Reversal

Arizona State did to Iowa State what Iowa State often does to opponents, and rode the reversal to the Big 12 title and a bye in the playoff.

The Cyclones routine is to evaluate the opposing offense on the first few possessions, and then slowly take away advantages as the game progresses. 

Iowa State was a bully to open the game, dominating the ASU defense for 10 points. But from there, ASU was the bully. Cyclone mistakes and brilliant running from Skattebo led to a game that was over in the 3rd.

Many fans will dismiss the season as a failure over one game. While missing the opportunity is disappointing, ASU's win in Manhattan should have been a sign that they would be a big hurdle to clear. But the Cyclones also showed they could dominate teams when they has the mismatch, yet find ways to win in the 4th when needed. These skills are as much mental as physical.

A 10 win season brings our Cyclones to a new level. It will be fascinating to see if the New Big 12 (16)

will continue to be as surprising as this season was, or if programs fall into tiers as time goes on.

If the program can continue its solid recruiting and team management, Iowa State is in position to be a solid contender every year.

It was a fun ride.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.