Review

 The August power rankings of the B12, and the end of year finish:

 

Kansas State  -  Tech

Arizona State  -  Utah

Iowa State  -  BYU  

BYU  -  TCU

TCU  -  Iowa State

Baylor  -  Arizona

Tech  -  Houston

Utah  -  Arizona State

Colorado  -  Kansas State

Kansas  -  Cincy

Cincy  -  Kansas

UCF  -  Baylor

WVU  -  UCF

OSU  -  WVU

Houston  -  Colorado

Arizona  -  OSU

 

While we ISU fans were disappointed in the four game losing streak (the loss in Boulder was the worst B12 loss of the Campbell era) KSU may have been the biggest drop-off from August expectations. Baylor and Colorado have arguments,  but they retained their coaches for next year.

Tech achieved their potential, Arizona made a big jump up, and Houston is on a solid trajectory.

The league remains difficult to project from season to season. Don't bet on spots, kids. 

For Future Reference

Courtesy of MasseyRatings.com the composite power ratings for the B12 before any games are played:

 https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=10686

 

Kansas State - Texas Tech

Arizona State - Utah

Iowa State - BYU

BYU - TCU

TCU - Iowa State

Baylor - Arizona

Tech - Houston

Utah - Arizona State

Colorado - Kansas State

Kansas - Cincy

Cincy - Kansas

UCF - Baylor

WVU - UCF

OSU - WVU

Houston - Colorado

Arizona - Oklahoma State

 

We would argue that Tech and Utah made the biggest jumps, although neither were a real surprise. Arizona was the surprise, despite their finish.

Iowa State took a step back, but were still solid. Colorado and Baylor were much worse than expected. So it goes.  

Comparisons

The football world is already greasing the skids to ensure the B12 only receives one bid to the football playoffs.

"The B12 is a weak league" is the leading story, echoed especially loudly by our GoBla neighbors who support the Team Out East (TOE). A little perspective:

Using the Massey Ratings site, we can see rankings for entire conferences as a whole.

SEC 8.36

Big 10 8.10

Big 12 7.95

ACC 7.84

So the B10 is closer to the B12 than the SEC, and the B12 is closer to the ACC than the B10.

But here are the power rankings for the B10 West/Leaders in the past:

2023- 7.58

2022- 7.76

2021- 7.96

2020- 7.89

2019- 7.71

2018- 7.73

2017- 7.85

2016- 7.09

2015- 7.35

2014- 7.07

2013- 6.97

2012- 7.12

2011- 6.94

To summarize: in 13 seasons of the B10 West, 1 year that group had the same rating as the current B12. All the others were worse, often by a bunch.

End of math lesson.

Steady as she goes

 While there are plenty of new faces in the two deeps, the CSJ staff remains cautiously optimistic that the improving depth in the roster will reveal a number of new stars for Cyclone fans.

IF- the defense can continue to be salty, holding teams below their season yardage and scoring averages, and- 

IF- the offensive line can give Dekkers enough time to throw downfield rather than running for his life, as Purdy often had to-

- we could have some fun this year.

But we are also big believers if trends. If your offensive line has been ordinary, assume it will continue to be ordinary. Thus, we see 7-5 this year.

Wins against SEMO and Ohio.

Losses against awa and Baylor, since Iowa State is kinda lousy in September.

Wins against Kansas and Kansas State.

Losses in Stillwater and against OU.

A win in Austin (trap game the week after they lose to OU, and their season basically ends)

Wins against West Virgina and Tech in Ames.

The patented we-played-like-crap-on-the-road-loss comes at TCU. 

Review

One team surprised all of college basketball and its own fan base by overachieving for most of the season. They pulled two upsets in The Tournament, and came very close to an Elite Eight appearance, a rare bird in Cyclone basketball.

Another team played high level basketball all season, and came within a game of a share of the B12 title. Their season also ended on the cusp of the Elite Eight, an ending most fans would have been happy with in October.

In retrospect, this was a much more entertaining winter than Cyclone fans expected. Next season could be on the same level and, with some breaks, even more interesting.

Enjoy the good seasons when they appear, as we never know when a drought will return.

Front seat

The Cyclones are playing like they realize that they have little margin for error in their quest for a return to the B12 Championship game.

Finding a way to lose in Waco limits the paths to Arlington. One path is winning the road games that don't involve Norman, and last week's hit job in Manhattan should make one optimistic that they can also win in Morgantown and Lubbock. The remainder of the path is downing everyone who come to Ames. KU offered little resistance, but Oklahoma State was more than able to put up a fight. Iowa State is fortunate to have that game in the win column.

The short version is that Iowa State needs to win and Baylor needs to lose. Half of that equation is in Iowa State's hands. They may not be in the driver's seat, but they have squeezed into the front.

Opportunity

 I’m afraid this remarkable season, filled with so many firsts, will haunt me for falling short. 

You were facing a solid but not awesome OU team that you had already beaten in a season where your squad was probably the best in the league. You rally to come close but cant seal the deal, and can’t silence 108 years of demons. So the demons remain. Cute story, but the past dominates the minds of most observers. 

A return trip next season isn’t a crazy thought, but so many variables can swing against you. Coaches leave. Key players get hurt. Team chemistry sours. Fumbles bounce the other way. You don’t get the kick you need. Ask Kansas State. They’ve had one first place finish since 2003, and that was nine seasons ago. Outside of Norman, consistent winning in this league is hard.

Every day is a new opportunity. The big opportunities, the ones that change the trajectories of lives, are rare. Today was one. Opportunity missed.

Yips

The loss to the Goblas was the result of a bad habit the Cyclone offense has developed: the yips once they cross the 50.

Against Wazzou: 8 trips across the 50, 3 TDs.
Against UNI: 8 trips (in regulation): 1 TD
Against SUI: 8 trips: 2 TDs, both on long passes.

Sense a trend? Fix the yips and this team will be a problem in the B12.

But offensive yips will limit this team to 5 or 6 wins rather than 9 or 10.

Giddy. Up.

An impressive second half in Manhattan pushed Iowa State back into the conversation for a conference title. ISU shouldn't have lost to K State back in the first week of January, but the way the Wildcats have played in the league takes that game out of "bad loss" category.

Keep winning and cross our collective fingers that the needed losses come to pass.

Hopefully the home loss to TCU won't block the Cyclones from a title. This is more fun than guessing if ISU will avoid the Wednesday game.

Data Points

Cyclone basketball has enough data points to confirm that a certain degree of defense is required to win ball games.

Push-shove-grab style that West Virginia plays, but it can't be Saturday-at-the-YMCA either.

I suspect the coaching staff has the advanced stats to show the offense is most efficient after a defensive stop. You have to try on both ends.

The Cyclones have shown they can beat anyone on the schedule. Playing enough defense in the last ten B12 games and things could get interesting.

Expansion Wishes

Since rumors of expansion has risen again, here is who I would invite if I was King:

BYU- large, loyal, national, underrated fan base. Mega eyeballs. Scheduling around Sundays is not a deal-breaker.

Cincinnati- Big media town, travel partner/rival for West Virginia.

Central Florida- Every school gets to travel to (and recruit) Florida!

Tulane- Every school gets to travel to NOLA! Downside- Tulane might not want to associate with Tech academically.

I know, that would be 14. But the Big10111214, the ACC and the SEC all make 14 work. It can't be that hard.

Besides- when the next big shakeout comes down there won't be enough chairs for the Big Time Football Lotto Payout Table for every school that wants in. This group includes Iowa State. But squatters have rights, and it will be much harder for a league to toss out a member than to pull in a new one. Better to start on the inside.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;

-and so we being another football season in Ames, staring down another insanely hard schedule. Literally no gimmes when you include a favorite to win the Big 101112 West/Legends Division, a favorite to win the MAC and the three-time defending FCS champ. Whew.

Several have made the argument that ISU will go 3-9 or worse, Rhodes should be canned, etc. etc. etc. In other words, another typical summer expectation synopsis for the Cyclones. If the OL is riddled with injuries like 2013, 0-12 is in play. Magino can only do so much when the QB is running for his life, getting injured, and then is unable to run for his life due to injury.

My short answer: If the OL stays healthy and the offense can average 28+ per game, they find a way to get to 6-6 and a bowl invite. (It's all any of us want, really.)

But if the OL has to start using backups for extended snaps, look out below.

Bowl Season May Be Ugly

I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.

Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?

Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.

Context

In the previous 17 Big XII seasons, Iowa State football has finished in the top half of scoring exactly twice: 4th in 2005, 6th in 2000.

That explains only having 37 conference wins across 17 seasons.

Until this club can score regularly, they will struggle. If I knew what would solve it, I wouldn't be a blogger.

Who you are, who you want to be

With a few games to go there are two groups of teams in the Big 12: five at the top who are pretty good, and five at the bottom just trying to keep up.

It's discouraging to not play very well against OU and Texas, but those teams will blow o it Iowa State when they set their minds to it. Given the financial gulf between The Big Boys and ISU, that should be expected.

But the five schools in the bottom half of this years league are financial peers of the Cyclones, and they are who ISU is really competing against year in and year out. This year, the Cyclones could finish at the top of the bottom half. They already have wins against Baylor and TCU with Kansas and West Virginia on deck. Wins against both not only earns a decent bowl trip, it also solidifies their place at the front of the Small Money league within the Big 12.

But you have to win or you just continue being viewed as a bottom feeder.

Tough Out

As long as Iowa State has the smallest athletic budget in the league, our expectations, especially in football, have to be tempered. Anything above 4 wins has to be considered a success.

Personally, I'm happy if the Cyclones are viewed by the rest of the league as that team they will probably beat, but it will be a damn struggle, especially in Ames.

I think Dave Uebben has a "Punches above their weight" view that is about right.

Promise

New promise from this site- from now on I only link to B12 football projections that have Iowa State somewhere other than last or next-to-last.

No matter how well the Cyclones do in football, it's always assumed to be a fluke.

Academics

Random data from US News College Rankings:

Only 9 of the Top 25 schools play BCS football. The top ranked BCS school is Stanford, followed by Duke and Northwestern.

The highest ranked school that has won a national title recently is Notre Dane, #20. USC is #26, Michigan #27.

Iowa State is #88. KU is #100, NU #101, MU #104. Nebraska was invited to the Big Ten because of its "Academic Fit".

Boston University has a larger student body than Iowa State. Rice is Top 25, but is smaller than Drake.

Peter

Big 101112?

Away goes Nebraska. The other dominoes should fall soon.

Peter

Opponent Vaccuum

The ISU sport most nervous about a B12 implosion is wrestling.

Suppose ISU finds itself as one of the "forgetten 4": KU, KSU, Baylor and ISU. ISU would now be a wrestling 'independent', which would make it much harder to field a team and operate versus the present situation.

Losing Big 12 opponents would put wrestling on a very, very short glide path to irrelevance.

Peter