Classic Heacock

A cool, windy day in Stillwater. An opponent that is on a 17 game B12 losing streak. Less than 15K semi-interested fans in the stands. But the OSU QB was finding some success throwing the ball, and led a 14-play TD drive just before halftime. A 10-7 lead for Iowa State coming out of halftime.

What does the defense do? Give up 2 field goals and give the offense time to gel. Which is what they do in the second half almost every week. 

OSU's second half:

3-8 punt

6-17 punt

4-3 FG (stated at the ISU 14!)

5-20 INT

3-5 punt

9-33 FG

Up 17-7, ISU turned up the heat and got three key sacks that blew up possessions. Closers.

If you are playing the percentages, the Heacock defense is a safe bet.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Fun With Camera Angles

So- Baylor opened a new gym this season! And lots of fans have lots of comments and about the camera angles from the center court position. The angle is- steep:

For comparison, notice where the hoop is compared to the old gym Baylor used:

The old gym camera angles placed the hoop on the bench, which is a more 'modern' placement. compare to Hilton:

The camera is lower and closer to the court than Baylor's old place, but the hoop is on the bench and further from the baseline.

Baylor's new angle is actually closer to Phog Allen than Hilton:

Similar to Cameron Indoor, too:

But it has a ways to go to be the angle at Gallagher-Iba before it was expanded in 2000:

(That's Fred Hoiberg guarding at the top of the key. Good times.)

Notice how close the hoop is to the edge of the lane! The game camera had to zoom out when play came to mid-court, the zoom in again at either end. You can watch the whole second half HERE.

Here is the current angle from GIA:

The angle is flatter than the old configuration, (similar to Cameron), and I suspect more in line with "normal".

Below is what I consider the most ridiculous camera angle I've seen in a game- Indiana's Assembly Hall in the 1980's:

The camera was even horizontally with the hoop! While it had a fun "sitting in the 10th row" feel, players often got clustered together visually (or blocked by a ref, as in the above example).

Above is the current camera angle. It's a bit on the steep side, but you can see what's going on.

To review- Baylor's angle is weird to modern eyes because it is closer to how things used to be. Revel in the retro feel!

Evolution

In the annual wild, drama-filled game against the Cowboys, it was great to see the offense nudge towards what the team can (potentially) do well and away from what it has shown it can't do in a consistent way.

The move towards the pass is natural (and obvious) but is most admirable as it goes against human nature. Change is hard for humans. The CSJ staff has dozens of habits that should be changed, but remain a constant in our lives. We applaud anyone who recognizes that change is needed- and actually follows through.

While the Cyclones aren't world beaters, there are a solid five games left on the schedule that could be considered coin flips. Opportunity awaits.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

Data

Nearing the halfway mark of the Big 12 season, we should all firmly understand how Otz's crew has to play to have a chance to win in the league. 

Games like TCU? Nope.

Games like Stillwater? Yup.

If this crew is within 5 points with 4 minutes to go, they are going to win their share of games. But they don't get in that position when they chuck 50 jump shots and don't attack the rim. Playing defense like they care goes a long way too.

Margins

 Against OSU, odd officials calls ended up even, or at least were in situations that Iowa State was able to overcome. Against WVU, no such luck.

Given Iowa State's propensity to play close games, they are more susceptible to losing or winning based on one call. Unless the program is able find a way to increase its margin in games, we will all have to get used to more nail biters and the occasional shaft job.

Not that Cyclone fans have ever watched their team be beaten by the refs.

Steady

 Coming into the game with Kansas State, we knew three things about the Cyclones:

-They could avoid losing to an FCS team

-They could blow out teams in the bottom 10% of FBS

-They could find ways to lose against ranked teams.

Kansas State doesn't fit any of the above categories. They have the talent to be bowl eligible, but have weaknesses that may keep them from getting there. Would ISU find a way to win, or would they muddle along and try to win on the last possession?

The results were the reverse, as the Cyclones put the game away early, and prevented KSU from making it a game in the second half. That was enjoyable.

Oklahoma State will be a much stiffer test, and have been Kryptomite to Iowa State's October magic. But the performance in Manhattan makes a win against the Cowboys plausible.

Run the table, boys

For the first time since the leather helmet was standard, the unthinkable is a least plausible: a perfect Cyclone football season, a conference football title, and more.

The staff at CSJ, for one season, are taking off the nut cup and hoping that things go our way like they never have before. Our prediction:

Iowa State goes undefeated, 12-0 in the regular season, and wins the Big 12 title game.

But-

They don't get a shot at the title.

We witness a weird season in the Big 12. Iowa State and TCU play for the Championship, while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can only manage 9-3 overall. Texas stumbles to 4-8. (Iowa underachieves at 6-6 or 7-5) The national narrative dissolves into "The Big 12 isn't good this year." ISU lacks a Top 10 win and earns only 3 Top 25 wins and must settle for a nice, yet weirdly underwhelming New Year's Day bowl game. 

The Cyclones finish at 14-0, but the season is unsatisfying, a disappointment for reasons beyond our control.

The ride will still be thrilling. Buckle up.

Blueprint

 Louisiana defended the Cyclones with man coverage and pocket pressure on every play. The Cyclones never found a rhythm and lost.

Okie State defended with man coverage and pocket pressure. The Cyclones never found a rhythm and lost. 

The word is out on how to slow Purdy and Co. The job ahead will be scheming how to overcome blitz pressure.

Progress

Saturday proved progress both in a week-to-week sense and in the narrative arc of the Campbell tenure.

Iowa State should have beaten the Cowboys the last three seasons, but Saturday had the moxie to take a lead after a bad start, and then to respond each time OSU closed to within a score. They broke through that mental wall.

In 2014, TCU blasted Iowa State 55-3 on their way to a 12-1 season. They should have been in the playoff, while our Cyclones surrendered 466 points in that season. (In comparison, TCU gave up only 247 that year.)

The last two years, TCU has scored 21 points total against ISU. You don't need many things to go your way to win with that kind of scoring defense. We will get to enjoy plenty of wins playing in that kind of sandbox.

The program continues to bend towards consistently solid football, so wins should follow. Watching a breakout performance by a QB is fun, but I remember Steele Jantz and Sam Richardson having big breakout games, too. Its easier to do when the defense hasn't seen you on tape.

The big challenge will be against West Virginia, a quality team with a week to prepare. Cross your fingers the home team has the better scheme and execution.

7-5

The CMJ staff sees a 7-5 year for the Cyclones in 2018.

Wins over South Dakota State, Akron, Tech, Kansas, Baylor, and two out of Okie State, West Virginia, Texas and K-State.

The defense will be solid again, but I'll believe the OL is ready to consistently run block when I see it. And it's hard to be +10 in turnover margin two years in a row.

The '17 squad was luckier than average than the Iowa State team, too. No major injuries, when one QB flaked out the backup turned out to be great, forcing a turnover when they really needed one, etc. Some of those things will revert to the mean this year.

But they should keep every game close, which will be fun, if frustrating. Enjoy the ride.

Our Lady Of Perpetual Disappointment

A program like Iowa State can't consistently give up 4th quarter leads if it's going to get anywhere.

The loss to Okie State was the third game just this year they probably should have won.

Five first downs in the second half isn't going to do it. Iowa and Toledo were similar stories.

Same some, different verse, different decade.

Bring Back Mirrored Schedules

I'm old enough to remember when the Big 8 basketball schedules mirrored opponents for the men's and women's teams, and each team would be home opposite weeks.

Back before TV completely blew up scheduling rhythm,  games were usually played on Wednesday nights and Saturday afternoons. The men might be on the road for two games while the women were at home for that week, then they would switch. The convenient part was that each would play the same opponent on the same day- If the men were in Stillwater, you knew the women were hosting the Cowgirls.

That symmetry gave the season a nice bit of predictability.

"Travel partners" only added to this. In the Big 8 days, OU and Okie State went on the road together, as did KU and Mizzou, K State and Colorado, and Nebraska with Iowa State. If you had a home game week, you would play OU on Wednesday and then OSU on Saturday.  When you traveled south, you swung through Norman and Stillwater in the same trip. With 14 games spread across 8 weeks, you then had a built in night off during the week that you played your travel partner. Symmetry.

These schedules arose in the days of trains and buses, when a trip from Ames to Oklahoma was a project. Now that every road trip involves an airplane and is paid with a TV rights check economizing travel costs is less important. But two-game road trips with your travel partner conveyed, even subtly, that everyone was working together to make lives easier.

That ethic evaporated about the same time as basketball shorts stopped being short.

Bowl Season May Be Ugly

I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.

Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?

Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.

Ticket: Punched Take II

Now they are really in. A win in Morgantown and a few in KC will go a long way towards improving on a 12 seed.  The Cyclones found themselves in the same situation last year- win in KC and avoid the dreaded 8/9 game. They failed. Learn from the past.

The win over Okie State was exhibit A of how much better the Cyclones do when they simply hustle and play with energy. The game got tight when it turned into Afternoon At The Y midway through the second half. Quick shots, lazy D, the whole bit.

The examples of success and failure are pretty stark.

Ticket: Punched

Solid road win? Check.

5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.

Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.

With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.

16 of 20

In Iowa State's three most crushing road losses, the opponent (Kansas, Okie State, Texas) scored on 16 of their 20 possessions in the last 3 minutes of regulation.  ISU held the lead at that 3 minute mark of each of those games. Full details at the Ames Trib.

One more stop in each game and ISU probably gets the win.

The Cyclones do a nice job of getting ahead with their offense, and don't need to turn into a knock 'em sock 'em, grind it out of defensive team that then struggles to score 50 each night. But a few key stops will go a long way.

Their trip to Waco is a good place to start. the Bears came from way behind to almost beat OU at home. They aren't dead until the buzzer, boys.

Upside

After thumping two inferior teams- on the road- it's clear Fred's boys are finding a rhythm. They are challenging the great teams and taking care of business when they need too.

While they are susceptible to taking teams lightly (cough- Okie State- cough) when focused and on task they run the gameplan, find the open man, and win. I think this team can be as good as it wants to be.

While two games with Baylor and one each with KU and Mizzou remain- This could be fun.

Hard Hat

I love the fact that Iowa State's winning drive against Okie State relied on the fullback. No trick plays, no Hail Mary's, no FG tries from 57 yards away. A "We're going to run for the TD and you can't stop us" attitude, which paid off with the rumbling of a 240 pound back with both hands on the ball. All of the beauty of a beer truck plowing through a snowdrift. Money.

If any play symbolized the mental makeup of the Cyclones, it was the winning TD.