Consistency

Another week, another game that could have been won because of the defense, yet was lost because of the offense.

 The scheme struggles to find repeatable success. Three good plays will be met with a 5 yard loss. The line is often overwhelmed. The passing game can't throw downfield because Dekkers only has 1.5 seconds in the pocket. Everything is hard. Iowa State tends to be the best or second best game by B12 defenses on the season. OU and KU have seen their best games against ISU, and there's no second place.

It is becoming clearer that in the past Iowa State had the luxury of skill players who could overcome mediocre line play. Those days are gone. Either the line has regressed or the skill positions have taken a step back, or both.

With four games to go, it is unlikely Iowa State will either reach a bowl game or escape last place. 

The offense is losing all of the details in the margins.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

Run the table, boys

For the first time since the leather helmet was standard, the unthinkable is a least plausible: a perfect Cyclone football season, a conference football title, and more.

The staff at CSJ, for one season, are taking off the nut cup and hoping that things go our way like they never have before. Our prediction:

Iowa State goes undefeated, 12-0 in the regular season, and wins the Big 12 title game.

But-

They don't get a shot at the title.

We witness a weird season in the Big 12. Iowa State and TCU play for the Championship, while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can only manage 9-3 overall. Texas stumbles to 4-8. (Iowa underachieves at 6-6 or 7-5) The national narrative dissolves into "The Big 12 isn't good this year." ISU lacks a Top 10 win and earns only 3 Top 25 wins and must settle for a nice, yet weirdly underwhelming New Year's Day bowl game. 

The Cyclones finish at 14-0, but the season is unsatisfying, a disappointment for reasons beyond our control.

The ride will still be thrilling. Buckle up.

Opportunity

 I’m afraid this remarkable season, filled with so many firsts, will haunt me for falling short. 

You were facing a solid but not awesome OU team that you had already beaten in a season where your squad was probably the best in the league. You rally to come close but cant seal the deal, and can’t silence 108 years of demons. So the demons remain. Cute story, but the past dominates the minds of most observers. 

A return trip next season isn’t a crazy thought, but so many variables can swing against you. Coaches leave. Key players get hurt. Team chemistry sours. Fumbles bounce the other way. You don’t get the kick you need. Ask Kansas State. They’ve had one first place finish since 2003, and that was nine seasons ago. Outside of Norman, consistent winning in this league is hard.

Every day is a new opportunity. The big opportunities, the ones that change the trajectories of lives, are rare. Today was one. Opportunity missed.

Unlocked

 CSJ staff spent 15 minutes after the game explaining to the less experienced members of the staff how difficult a nut Oklahoma has been for Iowa State over time. The Sooners don’t beat Iowa State, they thrash them. 56-3 seems like the median score in the series.

But sprinkled within the blowouts were near-misses that were more aggravating than the thumpings. A missed field goal as time expired to settle for a 7-7 tie. A 12-10 home loss on national TV. An onside kick returned for the winning TD. Going 0-3 against John Blake, who went 12-22 as OU coach. An uncalled DPI on a 2 point attempt for the win. And on, and on, and on.

Part of Cyclone fandom never believed that Iowa State could win the league because OU would always be in the way, but the final lock has been turned, and the door to a title path has been opened.

The only thing left is to walk the walk. Forward.

Good to Great?

 The win over TCU was a massive step forward on offense, and suggests potential for greatness as the season moves forward.

Given the choice, the CSJ staff will choose run blocking over pass blocking every time, as run blocking opens up passing options in ways that don’t occur in the reverse. Go big fellas, go.

Give OU a second conference loss and the league breaks wide, wide open. A national audience will be watching to see if Iowa State has become a Big Boy or is still a Plucky Upstart.

The New Big Boys find a way to win. Go get it done.

Close but still lacking

Hopefully this is the new normal.

When your team has the smallest budget in the Big 12, all you can ask is to play well enough to have a shot in the 4th.

The Cyclones have missed two chances in close games. They will win their share if the quality of play holds steady.

Star Treatment

Why would ESPN have a stat window of one of the players over the score in a basketball game? If you have to ask, the window isn't for you.

Trae Young is being given the NBA Star treatment by ESPN, because ESPN probably has data that viewers who don't normally watch college basketball are tuning into Oklahoma games to check in on Young in the same way they bounce around NBA games hoping to see someone drop 10 points in a few possesions. ESPN wants that casual viewer to see that Young is having a good night, and hang around for more.

I understand that a fan can feel slighted if a player for their team is having a better night than The Star, but its one of the many ways the company putting the game on TV will try to pay the bills.

I'm old enough to remember when not every game was on TV. This is worth it.

Tradition

A typical Cyclone football team of the past would follow an epic win with an inexplicable loss.

The 1990 team followed their win in Norman with a blowout loss at home to Nebraska and a horrid loss on the road to Kansas State. The next year KSU went 7-4 and went to a bowl game, so that win was an early sign of progress for Snyder.

The great 2005 team allowed Baylor to break a 37 game B12 road losing streak in Ames.

I expect a long slog on a wet track against KU. Here's hoping we aren't too grumpy at the end.

Worst/Best

If the Oklahoma press is calling it "The worst loss in Sooner history", then it has to be the best win in Iowa State history.

Given the premise before kickoff, agreed.

Here's hoping it's not an outlier.

Punching Above Their Weight

Our Cyclones are becoming The-Team-You-Don't-Want-To-Play, but their mistakes are keeping them from grabbing the wins they are close to earning.

ISU: 4 dropped passes, all would have been first downs
OU: 0 drops

ISU: At least 4 wild overthrows of open receivers, each would have been a first down or TD
OU: 0 overthrows

ISU: 3 3-and-outs
OU: 1 3-and-out

Those little differences were what won it for OU. Better talent, fewer mistakes.

Bring Back Mirrored Schedules

I'm old enough to remember when the Big 8 basketball schedules mirrored opponents for the men's and women's teams, and each team would be home opposite weeks.

Back before TV completely blew up scheduling rhythm,  games were usually played on Wednesday nights and Saturday afternoons. The men might be on the road for two games while the women were at home for that week, then they would switch. The convenient part was that each would play the same opponent on the same day- If the men were in Stillwater, you knew the women were hosting the Cowgirls.

That symmetry gave the season a nice bit of predictability.

"Travel partners" only added to this. In the Big 8 days, OU and Okie State went on the road together, as did KU and Mizzou, K State and Colorado, and Nebraska with Iowa State. If you had a home game week, you would play OU on Wednesday and then OSU on Saturday.  When you traveled south, you swung through Norman and Stillwater in the same trip. With 14 games spread across 8 weeks, you then had a built in night off during the week that you played your travel partner. Symmetry.

These schedules arose in the days of trains and buses, when a trip from Ames to Oklahoma was a project. Now that every road trip involves an airplane and is paid with a TV rights check economizing travel costs is less important. But two-game road trips with your travel partner conveyed, even subtly, that everyone was working together to make lives easier.

That ethic evaporated about the same time as basketball shorts stopped being short.

Bowl Season May Be Ugly

I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.

Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?

Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.

Ticket: Punched

Solid road win? Check.

5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.

Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.

With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.

Numbers Game

An excellent football article in the New York Times of all places. Looking ahead at what Penn State faces, Iowa State's plight in the 80's was brought forth as an example of what happens when your numbers get cut.

I was a student in Ames during the Walden years, and I didn't realize at the time how big the numbers gap was between ISU and, well, everyone else.  It doesn't bode well for PSU in the near term.

But those ISU teams hung around better than they should have, and scratched together a 6-5 season in 1990. But being down 20 or 30 players makes the 1990 win in Norman and Marv Seiler's win over Nebraska even more remarkable. Plucky doesn't begin to describe those teams.

Moxie Again

It's hard not to admire the grit of this Cyclone football team. It seems that no amount of horrible play will knock them down emotionally. In a typical year, ISU would have found themselves down 28-7 in the first quarter and would have coasted to a routine 42-14 loss. Instead they salvaged a 10-7 halftime deficit, then muscled the game away from UCONN in the second half. It takes deep courage to fight yourself off the edge of the cliff. Now 3-0, ISU has played a tougher schedule than everyone in the league save OU and has jumped 32 spots in the Sagarin rankings (from 75 to 43). KU and KSU are now in the "should win" category, and wins against Mizzou, Tech and Baylor all plausible. Lots of opportunity ahead. This last spin through the B12 schedule could be very interesting- at this point I'm not putting anything past our Cyclones. Playing more games against UCONN seems like our best remaining option.

Beatdown

On one hand its a simple "You don't have the horses to run with us" kind of thing.

But there's also a touch of "Don't even think you can compete with us long term" to games like that.

I hope the 28 redshirts understand the hill they are presently climbing.

The advantage to the new round-robin schedule is an annual test against against the Sooners and Longhorns. We will be able to measure our progress (or lack thereof) pretty easily.

Peter

WhoCuddaNode?

Isn't it obvious that hosting a U2 concert might be a little rough to a grass field?

Peter