72 Hours

Cyclone fans just exited the most dramatic 72 hours of their fandom.

Wednesday rumors of Penn State interest in Campbell accelerated on Thursday, then when nuclear on Friday as Matt and his staff went into radio silence. By Friday night it was done, and a successor named before CMC had even left the building, literally.

It was a rapid spin from "Why would he want that job?" to "Crap, he took that job."

A gathering we attended Friday night was a wake while awaiting the time of death. The introduction of Jimmy was a green shoot among the sadness.

Basketball brought joy to the somber fan base. The second half demolition of #1 Purdue at Mackey Arena was amazing to watch: A 4 point halftime lead was converted into a 46-27 blowout half. 59% from the field, 7-12 from 3. Winning most of the 50/50 balls, out-rebounding taller, beefier players. Defense that kept Purdue from ever finding a rhythm.

The basketball ceiling is unlimited with that level of defense and shooting. Hopefully the Cyclones can catch some breaks to balance the near term football prospects, which will be a rebuild at best.

Celebrate every win, as you don't knwo how long the good times are going to last. 

Reversal

Arizona State did to Iowa State what Iowa State often does to opponents, and rode the reversal to the Big 12 title and a bye in the playoff.

The Cyclones routine is to evaluate the opposing offense on the first few possessions, and then slowly take away advantages as the game progresses. 

Iowa State was a bully to open the game, dominating the ASU defense for 10 points. But from there, ASU was the bully. Cyclone mistakes and brilliant running from Skattebo led to a game that was over in the 3rd.

Many fans will dismiss the season as a failure over one game. While missing the opportunity is disappointing, ASU's win in Manhattan should have been a sign that they would be a big hurdle to clear. But the Cyclones also showed they could dominate teams when they has the mismatch, yet find ways to win in the 4th when needed. These skills are as much mental as physical.

A 10 win season brings our Cyclones to a new level. It will be fascinating to see if the New Big 12 (16)

will continue to be as surprising as this season was, or if programs fall into tiers as time goes on.

If the program can continue its solid recruiting and team management, Iowa State is in position to be a solid contender every year.

It was a fun ride.

Another Week Walking The Undiscovered Country

Members of the CSJ staff quietly held their breath during the KSU game, waiting for the kick to the privates to arrive, to witness yet another pratfall in a key moment.

The pratfall never came. The Cyclones won an important game.

The 10-win level has been achieved, and a trip to the new, expanded, Big 12 title game has been secured. New territory for our Cyclones to explore.

It has been a fun right for the most part. Enjoy the next chapters.

Back to formula

The win against Cincy fit the formula when Iowa State wins. 

After the opening TD, Cincy went:

4 plays/4 yards Punt

8/59 FG

3/7 Punt

6/7 Punt

3/0 Punt

1/-2 End of half

8/62 Fumble

4/18 Punt

All those punts game the ISU offense a chance to find its legs. They found their rhythm when the game needed to be won and delivered two beautiful drives.

15/68 7:33 and a nifty improve on a high snap by Rocco, followed by 7/71 (!) and 27 yard TD on 4th down to close the game out.

Watching both units close the game properly was fun, and keeps the door open for bigger opportunities the next two weeks.

Good job, everyone. 

Burnt

The game against KU at Arrowhead started well.

A 99 yard drive for a TD on the first possession had so many aspects that last weeks offensive performance did not. Plays of 4, 9, 10, 15, (15PI),  15, 6 & 27 got our hopes up.

The the KU offense, brilliantly designed, put on a 28-3 run while making the defense look silly. Lots of uncovered receivers, running plays with little resistance, and soon KU was running downhill. 

The offense perked up in the second half to close the gap, but that was clearly the worst play of the season against a team that had been first class in finding ways to lose.

Perhaps injuries are catching up to the Cyclones, and too many youngsters are carrying too big of a load. Perhaps there is too much tape on the teams strengths and weaknesses. 

Perhaps ISU's luck has just run out. 

Execution

The offense has one goal across the last four games: score touchdowns. 

Finding only two TDs after generating nine (9!) trips past the opponent’s 35 will get you beat every time. 

Some are mad at the Looney Tunes final play- but game was lost in the second and third quarters. Across 6 possessions Tech managed only 21 yards, but State only scored 10 points. They left the door wide open.

ISU’s defense deserved to win; the offense did not. 

A repeat at Arrowhead will result in an even bigger loss. Tighten up, fellas. 

Percentages

Leaving Jack Trice made sense. UCF had just picked up a first down at midfield with only 2:10 left on the clock. The Golden Knights led 35-30. They had a 99% win probability. It made sense to go and get ahead of 61,498 others who would soon be walking to their cars.

CSJ staff has witnessed probably a couple hundred Cyclone games in Trice, but few had as wild an ending as the one the smart people getting to their cars early missed. That ending may be the craziest in Trice history, considering the stakes. Bedlam ensued. But the run continues.

Now a bye week for everyone to pause and take a breath. The last four games are harder on paper than the previous four, but the Cyclones have found different ways to win each game. They are determined problem solvers.

Improved health, especially on defense, may be the ingredient to carry our walk through The Undiscovered Country to the other side.

Enjoy the ride, everyone.

Steady Trip to Morgantown

Every expert was pointing to Iowa State's trip to Morgantown as a trap game, the point where the undefeated run comes to an end. The were right- night game, coming off a big win, theme night with sweet uniforms, all of it.

Iowa State didn't care.

After a TD on the initial drive, WVU's last 7 drives earned 10 points, 7 which came in garbage time.

For the game, the ISU defense gave up 2 points per possession, while the offense generated 3.1. Yes, please.

We repeat ourselves, but the defense will be the key down the stretch. Central Florida has the best rushing offense in the league. (WVU, which had everyone terrified, is fifth.) This game, the newest Big Game, may be won on that side of the ledger.

The crazies Iowa State stat: Opponents have only had 10 trips to the Red Zone on the ISU defense, and 3 of those trips were in Iowa City. 5 other games, 7 Red Zone trips. Crazy.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Patience

Fans grew restless during the first quarter of the Baylor game, as the Death-Penalty-Dodgers score TD's on their first two possessions. CSJ staff tried to reassure their neighbors that its an unfortunate part of the process- learning what the opponent wants to do, where they think the have an advantage, and then eliminating that path.

The Baylor box score shows the results. After the first two possessions, the DPD's drives were this:

5-16 punt

5-13 punt

8-40 downs

7-65 TD

10-55 INT

3-9 punt

3-6 punt

3-8 punt

44 plays, 212 yards, 4.8 ypp; 13 rushes, 43 yards, 3.3 ypr. 

Once the defense adjusted, Baylor couldn't run effectively, and only earned 7 points on 8 possessions. That'll do.

Granted, a team won't always be able to dig themselves out of a 14-0 hole. Our suspicion is that when the staff believes they are better than the opponent, the first few possessions will be approached cautiously to feel the other team out. Then it go time.

One rake missed. Enjoy the ride.

Struggles

A walk through Houston's box scores is a head scratcher.

The Cougars had every opportunity to win in Norman, but couldn't. Run. The. Ball. Their drive chart? 

12-63 FG

3-8 Punt

3-1 Punt

5-17 Punt

3-9 Punt

6-55 FG

4-75 TD

12-20 Punt

4 (-4) INT

7-24 Punt

1 (-1) Safety

5-42 End of game

Houston turns around and blows out Rice. Nice rebound.

They then go to Cincinnati has does this:

3-0 INT

9-13 Punt

10-77 FGA

3 (-2) Punt

6-21 Punt

5-64 Fumble

10-30 Downs

6-45 Fumble

3-0 Punt

Ouch.

On the flip side, the 'Natti was the picture of efficiency:

3-7 Punt

3-45 TD

4-80 TD

12-80 TD

6-25 FG

1-0 Half

8-89 TD

3 (-3) Punt

15-52 FG

4-11 Punt

I don't know which Houston defense we will see Saturday- the one from Norman and Rice, or the one from UNLV and Cincy- but I suspect the Iowa State defense will be able to disrupt the Houston offense. Just do your jobs, get some points on the board, and win a football game.

 

The surprise was the lack of a surprise

 Saturday was a fun day at Trice, but it was also a touch disorienting.

We have all seen Cyclone teams find ways to keep a September game against a Mid-Major opponent close, and even gift-wrap a loss for the fan base. We expect white-knuckle afternoons.

The win over Arkansas State was anything but dramatic. Advantages were pressed, bench players got extra reps, and the game was clearly in hand at 14-0 in the first quarter.

Watching an efficient blowout win was fun, especially against an opponent that has given other teams difficulties (cough*Michigan*cough). Now that we have entered the Could Win Any Game/Could Lose Any Game portion of the schedule, it was exciting to watch a game that could have been a roller coaster turn into a entertaining show instead.

The other side of the collapse

As a fan base that as been on the losing side of second half collapses, it's great to be on the winning side of one. Pulling it off in Iowa City is a nice touch.

Winning 4 of 6 at Kinnick is also insane, considering ISU has lost every El Assico in Ames since 2011. Hate it when that happens.

Enjoy your glass of GoBla tears.

The Usual

 Iowa State will outgain and outplay SUI, but will make a creative mistake that will hand the game to the GoBlas. 

Just like every year. 

16-13 SUI. 

Steps

Another season opener, another underwhelming result, another typical September game for the CMC regime.

The start couldn't have been better. Two deep balls against a defence that was stacking the box is to be applauded. Bravo.

The offense was a little herky-jerky, but we suspect UND was determined not to lose the game on the ground. The offensive line isn't ready to win situations like that.

But enough questions remain on defense and the offensive line to limit the upside of this group. A solid but uninspiring squad. 7 wins is still our guess.

It's wild that CMC has 5 wins against OU and Texa$ combined, but only 1 against the GoBlas.

Our Cyclone nutcup stands ready to help witness another new and awful way to lose to SUI. Have plenty of your favorite beverage on stand by. It will be needed.

Visions

 2024 Iowa State football forecast:

Probable wins: North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, Cincy

Probable losses: Utah, Kansas, Kansas State

Guaranteed self-inflicted loss: SUI

Random coulda-shoulda-won-but-didn't-play-well loss: Pick one from: West Virginia, Central Florida, Tech.

That brings us to 7-5. We hope its better than that, but this program still has wiiiiiide variance between its best and worst games. Nothing can be assumed. More than 3 wins that aren't white-knuckle rides to the end would be a surprise.

Any playoff talk is madness without an 8-0 start. Save your breath. Enjoy the ride.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Uniform chat on a silly day

 So. 

Athletics tweeted this image out on April Fool's Day:

It was part of this tweet:

We know, it's AFD, but let's play a long that it's real.

In our opinion, it's a step backwards.

If anything, it further relegates Gold to an accent color only. Are we headed back to the early McCarney era?

Basically cardinal and white. Very Cheifs-like. I'm told some schools have found big uniform success copying wining NFL programs, so I understand the urge.

If we are going to abandon Gold in the football program, so it goes. At least the sleeve stripes will seem intentional. The recent jersey stripes were just- there. If you saw them at all.

When you use Gold as a secondary color rather than an accent, you can do things like this beaut from 1979:

The gold numbers work with the pants, the cardinal helmets work with the jerseys. The road combo was great, too.

Bringing back Gold would put this back on the table:

Or this:

(Still the best ISU look in our lifetimes. Full Stop.)

Two great road looks, too.

For your consideration- Gold helmet, Cardinal jersey (in this example, maroon), Gold numbers, Gold pants:

Isn't that snappy?

I can hear someone yelling in the back: "The Paul Rhoads uniforms looked like USC!"

True.

But the Iowa State uniforms minus Gold look like Indiana.

And Rutgers.

Is that the look you are going for? Really?

Or shall we look like this? 

It's a simple choice. More Gold, not less.

Gameplans

Unfortunately, our concerns were correct.

The lesson from the last 9 games for the offense was to pass first, then run after the defense starts retreating to cover receivers. 

But watching Memphis tape for three weeks convinced the offensive staff they could run when and where they wanted. They were quite incorrect.

A more aggressive, pass first plan may have allowed Rocco Brecht to throw for 700 yards and ISU probably finds a way to win. The dream of an above average offensive line that can run the ball still eludes the Cyclones.

Credit to Memphis- they saw a game against a Power 5 team as the opportunity that it was and maximized it. They would be a fun member of whatever league Iowa State ends up in after the next round of conference realignment. 

The city of Memphis is still the best bowl destination for Cyclone fans despite the weather. 90 percent of the fan base can drive in, hotels are reasonable, and everyone can congregate on Beale Street. Give us game day weather that isn't in the 30's and its perfect.

Given where we were emotionally on September 17th, this season was an unqualified success.

On to basketball.

Anger and Joy

The staff of CSJ spent their Turkey Days listening to many disgruntled Cyclone fans who were eager to complain about the missed opportunities in the loss to Texa$. 

We understand they were eager to send UT to the SEC with 4 losses in the last 6 meetings, but consider how far the program and fan base has come. It wasn't long ago that Iowa State lost their first 7 meetings, and had 1-11 and 2-14 records against Austin. Suddenly we expect to win each matchup.

Simply put, Texa$ is both running towards an SEC payday and running away from schools like TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State. Athletes that wear the burnt orange can make peace with losing to a equal like Oklahoma, but losing to the other members of "The Angry Eight" is not what they signed on for.

We suspect that within four years the Texa$ administration will be caught wooing other schools for The Super League in a chase for even more dollars and an avoidance of losses to schools like Mississippi State and Kentucky. They helped blow up the Southwest Conference, tried to blow the Big 12 up twice, and will do the same to the SEC. It's all they know.

But Texas doesn't know snow. 

The weather that our staff had hoped would greet the Longhorns in Ames appeared in Manhattan a week later, and assisted the Cyclones in one of the most ridiculous wins in team history. 

35 plays, 42 points, 5 TD plays of over 60 yards, and a running back totaling the 4th best game in program history in his first start.

The 6 inches of snow on the field make life difficult for defenders as they couldn't use their normal tackling form. Rather than coming in waist high and wrapping up, all they could do is try to tackle while standing up. It can be done, but it's hard. 

Iowa State allowed 35 points on 102 (!) K-State plays, but none of them were backbreakers. The KSU defense allowed nothing but back-breakers. Each missed tackle was 6 points. 

It's a game that ISU fans will discuss forever, and the CSJ staff regrets not attending in person, because it will soon be legendary. 

It's a fun boat to be sailing.

 

Leveling Up

One narrative from the B12 FB season has been the struggles of "The New Four" against the legacy B12 teams. As we write this, the group is 4-17, with a bunch of blowouts in the losses.

Iowa State handled BYU Saturday with even more ease compared to their win over Cincinnati last month. Each program may be tough outs in the future, but this year the group lacks the beef in the trenches to be competitive week after week.

Saturday's win was a fun ride from the Cyclone side of the field. We witnessed both long drives and big plays on 5 TD drives, and a stingy defense that surrendered only 14 points, while gaining an INT, 3 Over-On-Downs and 4 punts. A solid day all around.

The best news was an offensive play sheet that featured lots of misdirection and throws down the field. More, please. The aggressive passing game clearly opens up the run game. 

Now comes two tough match-ups: A Texas squad that has a shot at the playoff, a KSU team that has been scary good for most of the season. Win either and the bowl seed jumps. 

But being bowl-eligible going into the Texas game is a huge bonus. Just hang around until the 4th quarter and perhaps UT makes a fatal error on a cold Ames night.