Key Wins Equal Key Week

 Iowa State rode Hilton to two wins over KSU and KU, which keeps doors open for opportunity later in the year.

The Cyclones are still in play for: 

- A Regular Season Big 12 Championship, which they haven't won since 2001.

- A double buy in the now 14-team Big 12 Tournament. Fresh legs on Thursday.

- A friendly seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State is +1 in the old Tim Floyd rankings. 

With roadies to Baylor and Texa$ this week, they are playing with house money. An 0-2 week isn't a deal-breaker, but even one win keeps all of the above doors open. 

Go be great.

Anger and Joy

The staff of CSJ spent their Turkey Days listening to many disgruntled Cyclone fans who were eager to complain about the missed opportunities in the loss to Texa$. 

We understand they were eager to send UT to the SEC with 4 losses in the last 6 meetings, but consider how far the program and fan base has come. It wasn't long ago that Iowa State lost their first 7 meetings, and had 1-11 and 2-14 records against Austin. Suddenly we expect to win each matchup.

Simply put, Texa$ is both running towards an SEC payday and running away from schools like TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State. Athletes that wear the burnt orange can make peace with losing to a equal like Oklahoma, but losing to the other members of "The Angry Eight" is not what they signed on for.

We suspect that within four years the Texa$ administration will be caught wooing other schools for The Super League in a chase for even more dollars and an avoidance of losses to schools like Mississippi State and Kentucky. They helped blow up the Southwest Conference, tried to blow the Big 12 up twice, and will do the same to the SEC. It's all they know.

But Texas doesn't know snow. 

The weather that our staff had hoped would greet the Longhorns in Ames appeared in Manhattan a week later, and assisted the Cyclones in one of the most ridiculous wins in team history. 

35 plays, 42 points, 5 TD plays of over 60 yards, and a running back totaling the 4th best game in program history in his first start.

The 6 inches of snow on the field make life difficult for defenders as they couldn't use their normal tackling form. Rather than coming in waist high and wrapping up, all they could do is try to tackle while standing up. It can be done, but it's hard. 

Iowa State allowed 35 points on 102 (!) K-State plays, but none of them were backbreakers. The KSU defense allowed nothing but back-breakers. Each missed tackle was 6 points. 

It's a game that ISU fans will discuss forever, and the CSJ staff regrets not attending in person, because it will soon be legendary. 

It's a fun boat to be sailing.

 

Leveling Up

One narrative from the B12 FB season has been the struggles of "The New Four" against the legacy B12 teams. As we write this, the group is 4-17, with a bunch of blowouts in the losses.

Iowa State handled BYU Saturday with even more ease compared to their win over Cincinnati last month. Each program may be tough outs in the future, but this year the group lacks the beef in the trenches to be competitive week after week.

Saturday's win was a fun ride from the Cyclone side of the field. We witnessed both long drives and big plays on 5 TD drives, and a stingy defense that surrendered only 14 points, while gaining an INT, 3 Over-On-Downs and 4 punts. A solid day all around.

The best news was an offensive play sheet that featured lots of misdirection and throws down the field. More, please. The aggressive passing game clearly opens up the run game. 

Now comes two tough match-ups: A Texas squad that has a shot at the playoff, a KSU team that has been scary good for most of the season. Win either and the bowl seed jumps. 

But being bowl-eligible going into the Texas game is a huge bonus. Just hang around until the 4th quarter and perhaps UT makes a fatal error on a cold Ames night.

Hammers

 It was exciting to watch our Cyclones avalanche the Longhorns after halftime. The option pass to Milton to put ISU up 10 was an emotional back breaker for a fragile Texas squad that is definitely unsure of itself under the new staff. 

The 27-0 run in the second was a beautiful dismantling of a of a team loaded with both talent and money that doesn’t know how to properly leverage either.

While it would have been fun to make Texas endure a 25 degree day and sideways snow, (Nebraska 1988 comes to mind)  the mild day allowed Cyclone fans to be at a full lather when it mattered. Fun times.

Closers

 Three times this season, the Cyclones have found themselves down 10 or more and won. Today’s comeback was the most impressive as everything was on the table.

At the moment when every other Cyclone team failed when it entered the unexplored country of football success, this group found the way. Hold Texas to 7 points across the last three quarters. Grind out a late touchdown after struggling in the red zone all day. Do just enough on a final defensive stand to force the final play that goes your way. Just enough to likely earn a shot at the title.

A shot we’ve been waiting 108 years to arrive. Savor being on the stage.

Smothered

 Kansas State gained 62 yards on their first possession, but were stoned in their four plays inside the 10. 

They then gained 87 yards across the remaining 11 possessions in the game, and failed to score. Their second best possession was 7 plays for 28 yards and a turnover on downs. They gave up 5 3-and-outs. 

While it was fun watching the offense floor it when they had their chances, the job done by the defense was spectacular, and gives Cyclone fans hope in a rather important game in Austin on Friday.

All gas, no brakes.

Growth

About 24 minutes into this postgame analysis, these two Texas fans state what the rest of the Big12 has thought for a long time:

Every other program seems to develop their talent, while Texas stays static.

In other words, "Nobody does less with more than Texas". (Note to self: That would make a great shirt in all the rival colors.)

Let's compare stats from 2018's 24-10 ISU loss in Austin with this year's 23-21 ISU win in Ames:

Last year, UT was plus 117 yards rushing and 2.1 yards per play over the Cyclones.
This year, ISU was plus 60 rushing and 0.4 YPP, for change of 177 yards on the ground and 2.5 YPP. That's gigantic.

Texas has 46 4 or 5 star athletes on their roster. Iowa State has 4. Yes, 4.

The numbers speak for themselves.

Red Zone

The Cyclones were better on offense against Toledo, and all but two of their possessions went for multiple first downs and chances to score. But it was in the red zone the Cyclones almost lost the game. Had the three first half field goals been touchdowns, ISU probably leads at the half and wins going away. Instead, we all had to hold our breath during an onside kick try.

The play of the game may have been turned by Nigel Tribune. On a 50 yard run by Toledo, Tribune ran the running back down for a tackle at the ISU 25. The Rockets had to run 8 plays over three minutes to get the TD to draw within 7. Had he Tribune let the back go for the score, the offense would have needed to burn four minutes off the clock, a tough trick when you are only averaging a short 3 yards per carry. It would have been antacid time had things played out that way.

A win is a win is a win. This may be a good time to play Texas.

Bowl Season May Be Ugly

I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.

Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?

Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.

16 of 20

In Iowa State's three most crushing road losses, the opponent (Kansas, Okie State, Texas) scored on 16 of their 20 possessions in the last 3 minutes of regulation.  ISU held the lead at that 3 minute mark of each of those games. Full details at the Ames Trib.

One more stop in each game and ISU probably gets the win.

The Cyclones do a nice job of getting ahead with their offense, and don't need to turn into a knock 'em sock 'em, grind it out of defensive team that then struggles to score 50 each night. But a few key stops will go a long way.

Their trip to Waco is a good place to start. the Bears came from way behind to almost beat OU at home. They aren't dead until the buzzer, boys.

Finishing

The most impressive part of the win over a$m wasn't the first half scoring spree- it was finishing the dang game. Up 19 at half, they Cyclones never let it get closer than 15 in the entire second half, and ended up winning by 24. They increased their margin even after bringing in subs. Awesome.

It was fun watching a team continue to run its stuff the whole way, playing aggressive defense, making the extra pass, doing all of the same things that built the big lead. If ISU backed off on anything it was giving up easy shots after offensive rebounds- no point in adding a free throw and giving the Aggies a bit of momentum.

So now ISU sits at 2-0 with a road win. They two best teams in the league are next week, but given their play against UT and a$m at least you can say "Why the heck not?"

Deja Vu

This is exactly the situation where CPR has led ISU to gigantic upsets. In a way, beating A$M would be less surprising than beating Nebraska in '09- our starting quarterback will be suiting up.

Not saying it will happen, but the conditions are exactly the same as the Nebraska and Texas wins. This time we're at home.

Peter

Bounceback

It seems CPR has spent this week building up everyone's spirits after the loss to Texa$. "We played with Texa$- it was the mistakes that killed us." A look at the stats shows good drives, with failures when things got close.

Next up is a Baylor squad that is more Arena League than Texa$ League. They score points in bunches, and give up points in bunches, too. Can ISU score in the Red Zone rather than miss field goals? Can the defense get enough stops to be close in the 4th?

Let's go with another 36-35 loss for Baylor. Stranger things have happened.

Uppity

The Lonhorns set the tone early when they went for it on 4th and short inside the 20 on their opening drive:

We're here to grind you into the ground, punk.

Grind they did.

Texas didn't want to just beat Iowa State- they wanted to remind Iowa State and everyone else in the Texas League that they are in charge, they call the shots, and everyone else is in the Texas League by their blessing. We crush you in football, and you cash some of our TV check. At the end of the game your line is:

Thank you sir, may I please have another?

Texas reminds we Cyclones not to forget our seat on the football bus, and to act accordingly.

Corners

The optimistic side of me is really, really excited to witness in person Cyclone football turning the proverbial corner when they beat Texa$ again. After so many false starts over the years we are due to side at the Big Boys Table for a while.

But being the long-suffering Cyclone fan that I am, I keep looking for the other shoe to drop. I've lost count of the number of times we have walked into Trice expecting The Moment, only to have the opponent smack our Cyclones around like an eight-year-old with a pinata. We all have our list- I'll leave you for a moment to suffer at your personal memories.

This is the kind of game where I want one of two scenarios: Either Texas takes a big early lead and coasts to the victory, or ISU wins. Don't be the tease, giving us hope into the fourth quarter only to find a way to lose. 

If you take us for a ride into the second half, finish the deal. Every one of your disappointments takes a few months off of our lives. Give us a few successes to make it worth while, please.

But if you really want to sit at the Big Boys Table, you start to earn your chair Saturday.

Bottom

I can understand why Texa$ considers their loss to Iowa State the low point of their 2010 season. The Horns bounced back from terrible losses to UCLA and OU with a stunning win in Lincoln, so everything should have been good again, right?

Wrong.

A home loss to a doormat, bringing back all of the pain from earlier in the season, told the locals that there was plenty of dry rot in the infrastructure.

Hopefully the 2.5 Stars can dump the 4.9 Stars on their well-padded rumps again.

Fascinating

Want a full breakdown of A-Rob's winning TD versus Texas? Burnt Orange Nation has it for you.

That kind of analysis is both fascinating and disturbing. Where do people find the time?

Peter

Taking the Over

I marvel at the resiliency required to survive two successive beatdowns, then win what should have been another beatdown.

I also marvel at the amazing waste of talent that is Texas when they think they can just pull on the jersey and win. Had the Longhorns not been so impressed with themselves, perhaps they would have covered to 20.5 spread with ease.

Iowa State will never match the talent at a school like Texas- and they don't have to. As long as they find enough talent that still caries a chip on their shoulder, that want to prove to everyone they are good enough to play, they will win enough games.

I prefer my team to overachieve than underachieve. Today they were way, way over.

Peter

Austin

While I don't think ISU will come close to winning in Austin- the talent gulf will always be too big versus the Longhorns- I think we'll see a much closer game than the last two weeks.

Utah and OU had statements to make, and they were clearly motivated to do so. Texas made their statement last week in Lincoln. The Horns are notorious for playing down to the level of their competition, and I can't see them giving their best effort against a team that has been crushed the last two week.

ISU loses, but only by 14 or so.

Peter