Creativity

The Fighting Scott Drews are always a tough out. Every player is 6'9" with a 9 foot wingspan, they tip a lot of passes and are relentless rebounders. You seldom get comfortable on offense. Even open shots lack rhythm.

Baylor's visit to Ames fit that script, yet the Cyclones built a lead going into the under 4 timeout. The Prevent Offense was great on running clock, but bad on scoring and turnovers, which brought the Bears back to the doorstep, yet the Cyclones survived. 

Sometimes you run downhill. Sometimes you grind. Wins count the same. Onward.  

Patience

Fans grew restless during the first quarter of the Baylor game, as the Death-Penalty-Dodgers score TD's on their first two possessions. CSJ staff tried to reassure their neighbors that its an unfortunate part of the process- learning what the opponent wants to do, where they think the have an advantage, and then eliminating that path.

The Baylor box score shows the results. After the first two possessions, the DPD's drives were this:

5-16 punt

5-13 punt

8-40 downs

7-65 TD

10-55 INT

3-9 punt

3-6 punt

3-8 punt

44 plays, 212 yards, 4.8 ypp; 13 rushes, 43 yards, 3.3 ypr. 

Once the defense adjusted, Baylor couldn't run effectively, and only earned 7 points on 8 possessions. That'll do.

Granted, a team won't always be able to dig themselves out of a 14-0 hole. Our suspicion is that when the staff believes they are better than the opponent, the first few possessions will be approached cautiously to feel the other team out. Then it go time.

One rake missed. Enjoy the ride.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Freebies

 Saturday’s loss in Waco was a wild one- big offensive runs, a coach gets ejected, an angry crowd, both teams making plays and terrible mistakes, and a buzzer beater that doesn’t. But the game swung on the freebies.

With a final result that was wafer-thin, any little play could have been the difference. 11 missed free thrown are the obvious target, but so are a half-dozen missed inside shots that were rushed and errant passes that came from trying to do too much.

Now on to Austin, where a similar challenge awaits. One can never have too many tiebreakers in their pocket.

Fun With Camera Angles

So- Baylor opened a new gym this season! And lots of fans have lots of comments and about the camera angles from the center court position. The angle is- steep:

For comparison, notice where the hoop is compared to the old gym Baylor used:

The old gym camera angles placed the hoop on the bench, which is a more 'modern' placement. compare to Hilton:

The camera is lower and closer to the court than Baylor's old place, but the hoop is on the bench and further from the baseline.

Baylor's new angle is actually closer to Phog Allen than Hilton:

Similar to Cameron Indoor, too:

But it has a ways to go to be the angle at Gallagher-Iba before it was expanded in 2000:

(That's Fred Hoiberg guarding at the top of the key. Good times.)

Notice how close the hoop is to the edge of the lane! The game camera had to zoom out when play came to mid-court, the zoom in again at either end. You can watch the whole second half HERE.

Here is the current angle from GIA:

The angle is flatter than the old configuration, (similar to Cameron), and I suspect more in line with "normal".

Below is what I consider the most ridiculous camera angle I've seen in a game- Indiana's Assembly Hall in the 1980's:

The camera was even horizontally with the hoop! While it had a fun "sitting in the 10th row" feel, players often got clustered together visually (or blocked by a ref, as in the above example).

Above is the current camera angle. It's a bit on the steep side, but you can see what's going on.

To review- Baylor's angle is weird to modern eyes because it is closer to how things used to be. Revel in the retro feel!

Key Wins Equal Key Week

 Iowa State rode Hilton to two wins over KSU and KU, which keeps doors open for opportunity later in the year.

The Cyclones are still in play for: 

- A Regular Season Big 12 Championship, which they haven't won since 2001.

- A double buy in the now 14-team Big 12 Tournament. Fresh legs on Thursday.

- A friendly seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State is +1 in the old Tim Floyd rankings. 

With roadies to Baylor and Texa$ this week, they are playing with house money. An 0-2 week isn't a deal-breaker, but even one win keeps all of the above doors open. 

Go be great.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

The Problem

 In three conference games, Iowa State is averaging 14.7 points. The 24 they scored against Baylor looks like an explosion in hindsight- they have only mustered 11 against Kansas and 9 against Kansas State.

Kansas has given up 42 and 38 in their other two B12 games. 

And yet- all three games were winnable with even slightly better execution- complete a pitch and catch on third down, hit the original hole rather than dancing around the backfield hoping to find a better one, etc. - and the team is 2-1 or 3-0 and all is right with the world.

The good news is there are lots of winnable games ahead on the schedule. But any win will require better performances on the offensive side of the ball or we have to quickly shift our attention to hoops like the Bad Old Days.

Fearless

A 3 INT start would have crushed most Cyclone football teams.

This team ran off 21 plays for 210 yards and four touchdowns in a little more than 15 minutes in the second half to overwhelm Baylor.

The defense limited Baylor to 11 plays and 16 yards during the burst. 

The sequence felt like a crazy run for the Hoiball period- coming back from 20 down in 6 minutes to pull a game out of the fire. Good times.

The CSJ staff has spent 40 years doubting that Iowa State could win a conference title because of the difficulty of the task. Now the staff is saying- “Why not?”

.500ish

Cyclone football is 7-8 in the last 2.25 seasons in games that ended with a margin of 7 points or less. They win their share of the close ones.

Clearly this offense is going to struggle against decent defenses. When the other team can make you one dimensional, your margin for error goes way down.

ISU had plenty of opportunities to score what would have been the winning points- but they found a way to screw up, which cost them in the end. Slap on the back for taking the lead after a furious comeback. But the offense only got three TDs on eight trips into Baylor territory. That ain't gonna cut it.

The Cyclones could be the underdog in seven of the last 8. Buckle up.

Reverting to the mean

The CSJ staff agreed after an entertaining dismantling of Kansas on Saturday that the true test would come Tuesday in Waco, and the collective hunch was right.

The effort was a click lower, the details just a bit off, the shots a little less smooth, a little more forced. In other words, it was the typical game after a team gets a big win and has to go on the road. It's all good when the shots are falling like Saturday, but another nut when they are not.

Reminder: Don't complain about bad calls at the end when you put yourself in position to get squeezed by a bad call. The last three minutes of offense were lousy for Iowa State, and clinched the loss.

Learn from Waco and improve.

Uncharted Waters

Another workman-like win, another new opportunity.

By dispatching the Baylor "Lack-of-institutional-control" Bears, Iowa State has sailed further into unknown waters for both the football team and the fan base.

Savor the moment and the possibilities.

Ames has been playing football since 1892, and hasn't won a conference title since winning the Missouri Valley in 1911 and 1912. To still have a chance to play for a title in mid-November is remarkable.

In 2013 the Cyclones gave up 71 points to Baylor. In 2016 Baylor scored 45 in Ames, a game ISU should have won. Yet Baylor has only scored 27 points in the last two games combined. The progress is obvious.

Enjoy the moment, and hope that Texas is distracted this week.

Keep it simple, stupid

You learn a lot by looking a teams at their extremes. Most look at how a team performs against top flight competition. I also look at games when the team is a big favorite.

Aside from Butler's two ridiculous TD catches in the first half, there was little flash in Iowa State's 27-3 win over Kansas. Once up two scores, there were lots of running plays and outside screens, but only a few attempts at pushing the ball down the field. Three of those attempts in the fourth led to sacks, including the one time KU blitzed. It was minimalist, time-possession ball on offense, which should be a window into how Coach Campbell likes things. An Art Briles Baylor team would have tried to hang 80 in Lawrence; ISU was happy with 27.

That's doesn't mean Campbell was casual about scoring. The First-and-Goal possessions that led to short field goals peeved him, according to the replays. He still wants to maximize the opportunities that the team gets. But a 12-play, 8:00 drive is preferred to a 3 play, :55 drive every time.

The defense adjusted in the second half to close down the KU running game (~25 yards in the half) and were content to play prevent for multiple drives. CSJ staff counted 11 plays in the Red Zone for KU in the 4th- and they came away with zero points. KU's best shot at scoring came in the 1st on a broken coverage, and the receiver flat out dropped a TD at the ISU 5. So goes their season. KU's field goal was the result of a drive that only got to the ISU 29. Stout when it mattered.

Yes, 100+ passing yards in quarter is concerning, but it was garbage time against the prevent. Scoreboard matters.

Which brings up the aforementioned Bears. They are certainly capable of winning in Ames if the Cyclones are not on point, but the performance in Lawrence suggests that the staff and team can maintain focus when it is required.

7-5

The CMJ staff sees a 7-5 year for the Cyclones in 2018.

Wins over South Dakota State, Akron, Tech, Kansas, Baylor, and two out of Okie State, West Virginia, Texas and K-State.

The defense will be solid again, but I'll believe the OL is ready to consistently run block when I see it. And it's hard to be +10 in turnover margin two years in a row.

The '17 squad was luckier than average than the Iowa State team, too. No major injuries, when one QB flaked out the backup turned out to be great, forcing a turnover when they really needed one, etc. Some of those things will revert to the mean this year.

But they should keep every game close, which will be fun, if frustrating. Enjoy the ride.

Bowl Season May Be Ugly

I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.

Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?

Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.

Ticket: Punched

Solid road win? Check.

5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.

Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.

With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.

Big Ending

Looking ahead, ISU needs to build up wins while it can. The B12 schedule ends at K State, at Mizzou, home to Baylor.

Wow.

Upside

After thumping two inferior teams- on the road- it's clear Fred's boys are finding a rhythm. They are challenging the great teams and taking care of business when they need too.

While they are susceptible to taking teams lightly (cough- Okie State- cough) when focused and on task they run the gameplan, find the open man, and win. I think this team can be as good as it wants to be.

While two games with Baylor and one each with KU and Mizzou remain- This could be fun.

Subtle

Sometimes improvement isn't obvious. Go read this review of the defense's work against Baylor. We can watch the game and think that Baylor just gashed us- but in reality they gash everybody. In fact, Iowa State made them work for their points more than usual, and equal to K State. Perspective is key. I made bowl projects in the past by looking at how much differential a defense had on opposing teams compared to the opponents average output. The ranking against all schools only tells half the story. Get the offense to put more points on the board and we may be on to something.

Bounceback

It seems CPR has spent this week building up everyone's spirits after the loss to Texa$. "We played with Texa$- it was the mistakes that killed us." A look at the stats shows good drives, with failures when things got close.

Next up is a Baylor squad that is more Arena League than Texa$ League. They score points in bunches, and give up points in bunches, too. Can ISU score in the Red Zone rather than miss field goals? Can the defense get enough stops to be close in the 4th?

Let's go with another 36-35 loss for Baylor. Stranger things have happened.