The Jimmy Era Begins

It is completely rational to predict that a team that brought in 70+ players through the portal to be terrible. The 4.5 win total O/U makes sense.

But if the new staff thought the team would be terrible, they would be trying to keep expectations down. This staff has publicly stated they want the defense to have a goal of holding opponents to 14 points or fewer this season. Not someday, but now. For context, only 5 teams gave up 14 points or fewer. 25 teams gave up 20 or less. The Haycock defense that frustrated a big swath of the Iowa State fan base gave up 20.17 last year. 

Challenging your team to average 14 when they are more likely to give up 40 will only bring misery to the team and fan base.

If the staff thinks they can keep teams to 20-ish points on average, the season shouldn't be terrible. 

Add in QB Jaylen Raynor, who gave the Cyclones fits the last two seasons, and the Iowa State offense should be able to chug out first downs at a minimum.

Looking at the schedule and the estimated win totals, ISU should win 2 in September (SEMO and Bowling Green), will be serious underdogs in 5 games (at TOE, Utah, at BYU, at Arizona, Kansas State), which leaves 5 coin flip games: WVU, OSU, at Baylor, Cincy, at UCF. Win 3 coin flips and pull one true upset and you are 6-6, get a bowl trip with extra practices and some momentum into '27.

Or nothing works on offense and ISU loses a bunch of 17-10 games to end 3-9 or 4-8. We've seen the "turnover the whole roster" plan not work at other places. A disaster is totally in the cards. 

In the end, how the team loses will be as important as how much the team wins. A losing season can still have a positive vibe, even in modern "Playoff or Bust" football.  

Here's hoping we are in a collective good mood on November 29th.  

Stunning

After our concerns about meeting expectations, our Cyclones demolish an over-matched Tennessee State team and disassemble a talented and athletic Kentucky team the Did. Not. Like. Ball. Pressure.

A first time viewer of Iowa State would not have guessed they were missing an All-American in how the team went after UK over the last 32 minutes.

Big 12 teams have deep game plans against the Cyclones, and they are sometimes successful. But the cliche is true- its a hard style to prepare for in practice. If the ball pressure and trapping can remain on point, second halves will hopefully continue to swing the Cyclones way.

Enjoy the ride, everyone. 

Now Comes The Hard Part

Meeting expectations is far more difficult that setting expectations.

This Iowa State squad has the tools to beat any team on any night- but your game has to be a little bit better than the other guy. If every player can have an average (for them) night each game, they can win most games. Raise everyone's game a notch and nobody has to be the hero. Above average will be enough.

But nobody can have a bad night, because it takes away your margin for error. Everyone else has to be A LOT BETTER. And that's hard to do on cue.

Win more possessions and enjoy the ride.

Epic

We just witnessed this most incredible back-to-back games in the storied, wacky history of Hilton Coliseum. 

First game: Bully a solid Kansas team, which blew you out a month earlier, on Saturday.  

Second game: Play a high-level, back and forth game with Houston, owners of a 50-4 record since joining the league. Lead at halftime, then fall behind 10 on a barrage of 3s and your own missed free-throws.

Straight from Central Casting enters a 17-4 run over the last 7 minutes to end the game. Winner. Drive home safely. 

Just find a way. Savor this weekend, friends.  

 

Creativity

The Fighting Scott Drews are always a tough out. Every player is 6'9" with a 9 foot wingspan, they tip a lot of passes and are relentless rebounders. You seldom get comfortable on offense. Even open shots lack rhythm.

Baylor's visit to Ames fit that script, yet the Cyclones built a lead going into the under 4 timeout. The Prevent Offense was great on running clock, but bad on scoring and turnovers, which brought the Bears back to the doorstep, yet the Cyclones survived. 

Sometimes you run downhill. Sometimes you grind. Wins count the same. Onward.  

Rarified Air

The Cyclones last four games have been blowout wins over team that Iowa State is just better than. The back half of the league schedule is much tougher than the front. 

The staff here at CSJ are struggling to find a basketball comp for the level of play we have seen over the last two weeks. Scoring at will on the offensive end, and holding teams well below their normal averages is rare. The best Tinsley/Fizer teams could play this way for a game or two, but not four in a row. 

Enjoy the ride, because this a special time. 

Nuance

The difference between listless and winning Cyclone basketball appears to be little things: the tempo of ball movement, anticipating defensive rotations, trapping at unexpected moments, hands in passing lanes, and finishing at the rim.

A triple-double from Mr. Jefferson always helps. What a talent. 

Good to have the winning formula back. Onward. 

Review

 The August power rankings of the B12, and the end of year finish:

 

Kansas State  -  Tech

Arizona State  -  Utah

Iowa State  -  BYU  

BYU  -  TCU

TCU  -  Iowa State

Baylor  -  Arizona

Tech  -  Houston

Utah  -  Arizona State

Colorado  -  Kansas State

Kansas  -  Cincy

Cincy  -  Kansas

UCF  -  Baylor

WVU  -  UCF

OSU  -  WVU

Houston  -  Colorado

Arizona  -  OSU

 

While we ISU fans were disappointed in the four game losing streak (the loss in Boulder was the worst B12 loss of the Campbell era) KSU may have been the biggest drop-off from August expectations. Baylor and Colorado have arguments,  but they retained their coaches for next year.

Tech achieved their potential, Arizona made a big jump up, and Houston is on a solid trajectory.

The league remains difficult to project from season to season. Don't bet on spots, kids.