Just Win Baby

Keeping a solid Baylor team at arm's length in Ames is one thing. Winning in Lubbock, where so many Cyclone teams have been demoralized, is something else.

Iowa State was never rattled, kept plugging away, and found a way to win in overtime. They get on the plane back to Ames +2 in the Floyd standings, with two more stout opponents next week.

The three game stretch of Tech, Kansas and West Virginia was going to reveal a lot about this squad. Their grit and moxie are becoming more obvious.

Improvement

Some football math:

Iowa State finished 4th in both scoring defense and scoring offense, B12 games only, in 2024.

Below is ISU's performance against each B12 opponent (10 games including ASU).

Opponent, Points scored, (+/- Opponent Def. average), Points surrendered, (+/- Opponent Off. average)

Houston 20 (-5); 0 (-12.9)

Baylor 43 (+12.6); 21 (-14.4)

WVU 28 (-3.9); 16 (-11.4)

UCF 38 (+6.7); 35 (+7.2)

Tech 22 (-11.9); 23 (-13.6)

Kansas 36 (+6.4); 45 (+14.9)

Cincy 34 (+8.3); 17 (-6.7)

Utah 31 (+7.9); 28 (+8.8)

KSU. 29 (+4.2); 21 (-6.9)

ASU 19 (-3.2); 45 (+14.3)

The home win over Baylor was the most complete game, with both offense and defense having their best "over-performances" of the season. 

Arizona State was ISU's biggest miss, with both offense and defense on the wrong side of the +/-. 

The Cyclone offense covered for a bad defensive game in the win over UCF, but wasted a great defensive effort against Tech. 

Each unit was on the "wrong side" four times. The team lost two "wrong side" games by the offense and two by the defense. 

The defense had bigger swings, so reducing the amount of bad on bad nights would be helpful. The offensive unit has enough tools returning in '25 to be on the plus side every game. 

Get to work, everybody.

All-in or All-out

Another close game goes the Cyclone's way in the Pop Tarts Bowl. For everyone who wants to put an asterisk next to the win due to Miami's best player sitting out the second half (which is damn weird), does a bowl win when the opponent has sit-outs always get an asterisk? If not, who decides which games get the asterisk and which don't? If you work down this line of thought, the only answer is that either every win counts or none count. Wins go onto your all-time win total or these are just scrimmages with referees. Pick one and let us know.

We're calling the game a clear win for Iowa State. 

The fact that only four Seniors played in the first half for a team that finished 11-3 is nothing but good news. 

See you in August, Cyclone Football. Well done.

 

Grit

Apologies, all. This has been sitting in our drafts- didn't hit publish like the smart kids do. Here's some very belated thoughts:

Most Cyclone teams from the past would have folded under SUI's impressive first-half shooting barrage. Justified- it wasn't their night. The GoBlas can fill it up. So it goes.

But Iowa State adjusted, abandoned the trap for straight-up D, and hung around.

The game swung on a run that started with 6 minutes left in the game. Across 11 possessions, the GoBlas missed 8 straight shots and only got 4 free throws. ISU scored 17 points in the same span. Game.

The ability to play high end basketball on both offense and defense, even if only for a short spurt, are powerful tools. The grit and patience to keep grinding away, waiting for your opportunity, will keep our Cyclones in a lot of games. The GoBlas had an 87% probability with 11:30 left in the game, and were a 72% probability when the ISU run began. And then things changed.

Winning a game late in Iowa City? Priceless.

Reversal

Arizona State did to Iowa State what Iowa State often does to opponents, and rode the reversal to the Big 12 title and a bye in the playoff.

The Cyclones routine is to evaluate the opposing offense on the first few possessions, and then slowly take away advantages as the game progresses. 

Iowa State was a bully to open the game, dominating the ASU defense for 10 points. But from there, ASU was the bully. Cyclone mistakes and brilliant running from Skattebo led to a game that was over in the 3rd.

Many fans will dismiss the season as a failure over one game. While missing the opportunity is disappointing, ASU's win in Manhattan should have been a sign that they would be a big hurdle to clear. But the Cyclones also showed they could dominate teams when they has the mismatch, yet find ways to win in the 4th when needed. These skills are as much mental as physical.

A 10 win season brings our Cyclones to a new level. It will be fascinating to see if the New Big 12 (16)

will continue to be as surprising as this season was, or if programs fall into tiers as time goes on.

If the program can continue its solid recruiting and team management, Iowa State is in position to be a solid contender every year.

It was a fun ride.

Schedules

 This year should remind us that Strength of Schedule often comes down to luck.

As an example, let's look back at the B12 preseason media poll, where they actually finished, and the difference:

1 Utah 13 (-12)

2 KSU 8 (-6)

3 OSU 16 (-13)

4 Kansas 10 (-6)

5 Arizona 14 (-9)

6 Iowa State 2 (+4)

7 West Virginia 9 (-2)

8 UCF 15 (-7)

9 Tech 7 (+2)

10 TCU 6 (+4)

11 Colorado 4 (+7)

12 Baylor 5 (+7)

13 BYU 3 (+10)

14 Cincy 11 (+3)

15 Houston 12 (+3)

16 ASU 1 (+15)

The bottom eight teams in the preseason poll all finished better than expected, led by the Sun Devils. 

Iowa State was the only team in the top 8 to finish better than expected. Wow.

Time will tell if this year was an outlier, or if the order will jumble each year.

Based on the preseason, ISU was to play 9 games with a total SOS (in order of projected finish) of 72. They ended up playing a schedule of 89, and avoided 1, 2, 4 and 6. So it goes.

Nationally, Iowa State SOS was 47th. TOE was 53, despite playing in the impossibly rugged Big 10.

Since 2000, TOE has had an average SOS of 38, while ISU has battled a SOS of 25. ISU also had 5 seasons in the Top 10 of SOS. TOE had one, back in 2000. Those numbers are part of the reason that one team has averaged 8 wins this century, and the other has averaged 5.7.

Here's hoping ISU can improve their percentages.

Another Week Walking The Undiscovered Country

Members of the CSJ staff quietly held their breath during the KSU game, waiting for the kick to the privates to arrive, to witness yet another pratfall in a key moment.

The pratfall never came. The Cyclones won an important game.

The 10-win level has been achieved, and a trip to the new, expanded, Big 12 title game has been secured. New territory for our Cyclones to explore.

It has been a fun right for the most part. Enjoy the next chapters.

Disaster Averted

It's never easy.

The games you needed to go your way go your way. 

Your defense is dominating an opponent that has struggled to score.

And yet- a flukey INT turns into a pick-six.

You drop a punt resulting in a FG.

You miss a FG.

You give up a punt block for a TD.

You find yourself down 4 late in the 4th.

Yet you find a way. Again.

The doors remain open to places no Iowa State team has ever gone.

Walk through them and enjoy the trip.

Back to formula

The win against Cincy fit the formula when Iowa State wins. 

After the opening TD, Cincy went:

4 plays/4 yards Punt

8/59 FG

3/7 Punt

6/7 Punt

3/0 Punt

1/-2 End of half

8/62 Fumble

4/18 Punt

All those punts game the ISU offense a chance to find its legs. They found their rhythm when the game needed to be won and delivered two beautiful drives.

15/68 7:33 and a nifty improve on a high snap by Rocco, followed by 7/71 (!) and 27 yard TD on 4th down to close the game out.

Watching both units close the game properly was fun, and keeps the door open for bigger opportunities the next two weeks.

Good job, everyone. 

Burnt

The game against KU at Arrowhead started well.

A 99 yard drive for a TD on the first possession had so many aspects that last weeks offensive performance did not. Plays of 4, 9, 10, 15, (15PI),  15, 6 & 27 got our hopes up.

The the KU offense, brilliantly designed, put on a 28-3 run while making the defense look silly. Lots of uncovered receivers, running plays with little resistance, and soon KU was running downhill. 

The offense perked up in the second half to close the gap, but that was clearly the worst play of the season against a team that had been first class in finding ways to lose.

Perhaps injuries are catching up to the Cyclones, and too many youngsters are carrying too big of a load. Perhaps there is too much tape on the teams strengths and weaknesses. 

Perhaps ISU's luck has just run out. 

Execution

The offense has one goal across the last four games: score touchdowns. 

Finding only two TDs after generating nine (9!) trips past the opponent’s 35 will get you beat every time. 

Some are mad at the Looney Tunes final play- but game was lost in the second and third quarters. Across 6 possessions Tech managed only 21 yards, but State only scored 10 points. They left the door wide open.

ISU’s defense deserved to win; the offense did not. 

A repeat at Arrowhead will result in an even bigger loss. Tighten up, fellas. 

Comparisons

The football world is already greasing the skids to ensure the B12 only receives one bid to the football playoffs.

"The B12 is a weak league" is the leading story, echoed especially loudly by our GoBla neighbors who support the Team Out East (TOE). A little perspective:

Using the Massey Ratings site, we can see rankings for entire conferences as a whole.

SEC 8.36

Big 10 8.10

Big 12 7.95

ACC 7.84

So the B10 is closer to the B12 than the SEC, and the B12 is closer to the ACC than the B10.

But here are the power rankings for the B10 West/Leaders in the past:

2023- 7.58

2022- 7.76

2021- 7.96

2020- 7.89

2019- 7.71

2018- 7.73

2017- 7.85

2016- 7.09

2015- 7.35

2014- 7.07

2013- 6.97

2012- 7.12

2011- 6.94

To summarize: in 13 seasons of the B10 West, 1 year that group had the same rating as the current B12. All the others were worse, often by a bunch.

End of math lesson.

Percentages

Leaving Jack Trice made sense. UCF had just picked up a first down at midfield with only 2:10 left on the clock. The Golden Knights led 35-30. They had a 99% win probability. It made sense to go and get ahead of 61,498 others who would soon be walking to their cars.

CSJ staff has witnessed probably a couple hundred Cyclone games in Trice, but few had as wild an ending as the one the smart people getting to their cars early missed. That ending may be the craziest in Trice history, considering the stakes. Bedlam ensued. But the run continues.

Now a bye week for everyone to pause and take a breath. The last four games are harder on paper than the previous four, but the Cyclones have found different ways to win each game. They are determined problem solvers.

Improved health, especially on defense, may be the ingredient to carry our walk through The Undiscovered Country to the other side.

Enjoy the ride, everyone.

Steady Trip to Morgantown

Every expert was pointing to Iowa State's trip to Morgantown as a trap game, the point where the undefeated run comes to an end. The were right- night game, coming off a big win, theme night with sweet uniforms, all of it.

Iowa State didn't care.

After a TD on the initial drive, WVU's last 7 drives earned 10 points, 7 which came in garbage time.

For the game, the ISU defense gave up 2 points per possession, while the offense generated 3.1. Yes, please.

We repeat ourselves, but the defense will be the key down the stretch. Central Florida has the best rushing offense in the league. (WVU, which had everyone terrified, is fifth.) This game, the newest Big Game, may be won on that side of the ledger.

The crazies Iowa State stat: Opponents have only had 10 trips to the Red Zone on the ISU defense, and 3 of those trips were in Iowa City. 5 other games, 7 Red Zone trips. Crazy.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Patience

Fans grew restless during the first quarter of the Baylor game, as the Death-Penalty-Dodgers score TD's on their first two possessions. CSJ staff tried to reassure their neighbors that its an unfortunate part of the process- learning what the opponent wants to do, where they think the have an advantage, and then eliminating that path.

The Baylor box score shows the results. After the first two possessions, the DPD's drives were this:

5-16 punt

5-13 punt

8-40 downs

7-65 TD

10-55 INT

3-9 punt

3-6 punt

3-8 punt

44 plays, 212 yards, 4.8 ypp; 13 rushes, 43 yards, 3.3 ypr. 

Once the defense adjusted, Baylor couldn't run effectively, and only earned 7 points on 8 possessions. That'll do.

Granted, a team won't always be able to dig themselves out of a 14-0 hole. Our suspicion is that when the staff believes they are better than the opponent, the first few possessions will be approached cautiously to feel the other team out. Then it go time.

One rake missed. Enjoy the ride.

Don’t step on the rakes

Looking forward, the Cyclones have lots of potential losses ahead if anything other than an A Game is played. 

Baylor has a solid defense, but their offense has been unremarkable. Can ISU keep them off the board? Will the Bears rally around their coach? Or will they fall apart if they fall behind by 14?

Here are the defensive/offensive rankings for the rest of the year:

BU 28/87

WV 106/59

UCF 53/4

TT 124/15

KU 57/68

CN 104/16

UT 20/57

KS 55/43

These numbers will change as we move forward, but if our Cyclones have a memorable season it come from the performance of the defense. 

Here’s hoping. 

Changes

 Four games, four scenarios that Cyclone football often messes up, yet four wins on the board.

This team has made winning plays in each game, but has also avoided the deadly mistake. This is- fun? Yes, fun.

This week ISU welcomes a struggling Baylor program. Two years ago, Baylor was the defending league champs, who pushed the Cyclones around in a wasn’t-as-close-as-the-margin 7 point win. 

Winning plays while avoiding killer mistakes is a great combination. A win will mean 5-0 for the first time since 1980. According to this site that team finished 6-5. Ooof.

If you are dreaming big, the best start ever was 1938 at 7-0, but Denver, Luther, Marquette and Drake were on the schedule.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Struggles

A walk through Houston's box scores is a head scratcher.

The Cougars had every opportunity to win in Norman, but couldn't. Run. The. Ball. Their drive chart? 

12-63 FG

3-8 Punt

3-1 Punt

5-17 Punt

3-9 Punt

6-55 FG

4-75 TD

12-20 Punt

4 (-4) INT

7-24 Punt

1 (-1) Safety

5-42 End of game

Houston turns around and blows out Rice. Nice rebound.

They then go to Cincinnati has does this:

3-0 INT

9-13 Punt

10-77 FGA

3 (-2) Punt

6-21 Punt

5-64 Fumble

10-30 Downs

6-45 Fumble

3-0 Punt

Ouch.

On the flip side, the 'Natti was the picture of efficiency:

3-7 Punt

3-45 TD

4-80 TD

12-80 TD

6-25 FG

1-0 Half

8-89 TD

3 (-3) Punt

15-52 FG

4-11 Punt

I don't know which Houston defense we will see Saturday- the one from Norman and Rice, or the one from UNLV and Cincy- but I suspect the Iowa State defense will be able to disrupt the Houston offense. Just do your jobs, get some points on the board, and win a football game.

 

The surprise was the lack of a surprise

 Saturday was a fun day at Trice, but it was also a touch disorienting.

We have all seen Cyclone teams find ways to keep a September game against a Mid-Major opponent close, and even gift-wrap a loss for the fan base. We expect white-knuckle afternoons.

The win over Arkansas State was anything but dramatic. Advantages were pressed, bench players got extra reps, and the game was clearly in hand at 14-0 in the first quarter.

Watching an efficient blowout win was fun, especially against an opponent that has given other teams difficulties (cough*Michigan*cough). Now that we have entered the Could Win Any Game/Could Lose Any Game portion of the schedule, it was exciting to watch a game that could have been a roller coaster turn into a entertaining show instead.

The other side of the collapse

As a fan base that as been on the losing side of second half collapses, it's great to be on the winning side of one. Pulling it off in Iowa City is a nice touch.

Winning 4 of 6 at Kinnick is also insane, considering ISU has lost every El Assico in Ames since 2011. Hate it when that happens.

Enjoy your glass of GoBla tears.

The Usual

 Iowa State will outgain and outplay SUI, but will make a creative mistake that will hand the game to the GoBlas. 

Just like every year. 

16-13 SUI. 

Looks

 New B12 member Arizona State looked good in Gold/Maroon/Gold against Wyoming:

Minnesota had fun with a Maroon/Gold/Maroon combo:

Southern Cal won in their always classic kit:

Iowa State broke out new jerseys to go with their favorite white pants:

Wait, we are being told that's Rutgers. Here's Iowa State:

Sorry, we saw Red/White and just assumed. Is this Iowa State?

Still can't tell the difference, but we are stuck with the Rutgers-inspired Red/White/Black scheme for the next 5 years.

A missed opportunity.

Steps

Another season opener, another underwhelming result, another typical September game for the CMC regime.

The start couldn't have been better. Two deep balls against a defence that was stacking the box is to be applauded. Bravo.

The offense was a little herky-jerky, but we suspect UND was determined not to lose the game on the ground. The offensive line isn't ready to win situations like that.

But enough questions remain on defense and the offensive line to limit the upside of this group. A solid but uninspiring squad. 7 wins is still our guess.

It's wild that CMC has 5 wins against OU and Texa$ combined, but only 1 against the GoBlas.

Our Cyclone nutcup stands ready to help witness another new and awful way to lose to SUI. Have plenty of your favorite beverage on stand by. It will be needed.

Visions

 2024 Iowa State football forecast:

Probable wins: North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, Cincy

Probable losses: Utah, Kansas, Kansas State

Guaranteed self-inflicted loss: SUI

Random coulda-shoulda-won-but-didn't-play-well loss: Pick one from: West Virginia, Central Florida, Tech.

That brings us to 7-5. We hope its better than that, but this program still has wiiiiiide variance between its best and worst games. Nothing can be assumed. More than 3 wins that aren't white-knuckle rides to the end would be a surprise.

Any playoff talk is madness without an 8-0 start. Save your breath. Enjoy the ride.

Best Trice Wins Seen In Person

A warm summer night is the perfect time to jump on the Cyclone Twitter trending topic: 5 Best Jack Trice Games you saw in person.

Here is ours in order of witness:

1981 Iowa State 23 SUI 12 

Iowa's first game in Ames since 1934. (When the series resumed in 1977, SUI required the Cyclones to drive to Iowa City four times before they would come to Ames. Jerks.) Ames was electric. Hillside seats on the NW corner were Nirvana for a group of teenage Cyclone fans. A core memory.

1992 Iowa State 19 Nebraska 10 (aka the Marv Seiler Game) 

The unexpected wins are the most fun. An 8-1 Cornhusker team came to Ames on a roll, but couldn't get anything together against a pesky Cyclone defense. Marv only needed on big play to ice the win. You could hear the shock in Pete Taylor's voice on the radio call.

2005 Iowa State 23, SUI 3

An SUI squad ranked #8 came into Ames and almost got shut out by the Cyclones. The game essentially ended in the 2nd quarter when an GoBla QB concussed himself by tackling a safety after an INT. Perhaps ISU's most dominant win over SUI behind the 31-0 win in 1978. A fun day.

2017 Iowa State 14 TCU 7

A white-knuckle ride for the resurgent Cyclones over #4 TCU. 5-2, and on a 3 - game wining streak, the Cyclones went up 14-0 in the first half. TCU returned the 2nd half kickoff for a TD, but ISU held the Frogs to 157 yards and no points on their last 7 possessions, including 3 turnovers to seal the win. ISU broke a 7 game win streak for TCU, became bowl eligible in CMC's 2nd season, and moved into a tie for first place in the Big 12. It was a hug-random-strangers kind of win. The win in Norman wasn't a fluke.

2018 ISU 42 KSU 38

Down 17 with 12:27 left in the 4th, Brock Purdy led three scoring drives to end Bill Snyder's coaching career. The win tied ISU's biggest 4th quarter comeback win in it's history. While a win over #6 West Virginia a month earlier was a dominant win, sending Snyder out the way they did was more satisfying.

Missed opportunities

 The Gophers revamped their football uniforms for 2024, and they are a big upgrade:

Lots of Gold, no white numbers. Big improvement.

2023 Home look for reference:

Looking like a maroon Rutgers.

Mizzou continues to have the perfect set:

Full kits of both team colors, a white kit, lots of sharp helmets. Best of all, the stripes on the helmets, jerseys and pants all match. You can mix all three kits. Outstanding.

Our only complaint is the white numbers on the black jerseys, so the grade is only 95/100.

Iowa State, however, is going backwards.

"Hey, Nike- what's your stock look for this season? Great! And remove all the gold you can. We want to look as much like Rutgers as possible."

Aim kinda medium, folks. Kinda medium. Stock is fine.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Uniform chat on a silly day

 So. 

Athletics tweeted this image out on April Fool's Day:

It was part of this tweet:

We know, it's AFD, but let's play a long that it's real.

In our opinion, it's a step backwards.

If anything, it further relegates Gold to an accent color only. Are we headed back to the early McCarney era?

Basically cardinal and white. Very Cheifs-like. I'm told some schools have found big uniform success copying wining NFL programs, so I understand the urge.

If we are going to abandon Gold in the football program, so it goes. At least the sleeve stripes will seem intentional. The recent jersey stripes were just- there. If you saw them at all.

When you use Gold as a secondary color rather than an accent, you can do things like this beaut from 1979:

The gold numbers work with the pants, the cardinal helmets work with the jerseys. The road combo was great, too.

Bringing back Gold would put this back on the table:

Or this:

(Still the best ISU look in our lifetimes. Full Stop.)

Two great road looks, too.

For your consideration- Gold helmet, Cardinal jersey (in this example, maroon), Gold numbers, Gold pants:

Isn't that snappy?

I can hear someone yelling in the back: "The Paul Rhoads uniforms looked like USC!"

True.

But the Iowa State uniforms minus Gold look like Indiana.

And Rutgers.

Is that the look you are going for? Really?

Or shall we look like this? 

It's a simple choice. More Gold, not less.

Wins and Losses

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get beat.

We were impressed with the defensive effort from Illinois in the first half, which was uncharacteristic and never let Iowa State find a rhythm or get open looks. Even though the Cyclones cut the 10 point halftime lead to four early in the second half, the game never got closer than 2 points. Opportunities were missed, but Illinois kept making plays. Had they made a decent number of free throws, the game is never closer than 10. So it goes.

The season as a whole was a roaring success. A second place finish in the best league is a quality season. A fantastic run through the B12 tourney was a joy to watch. The standards for the program continue to be raised.

Now we wait to see how the roster shifts in the next three weeks, and look ahead to next season. 

2023-24 was a fantastic ride. Thanks everyone. 

A Habit of 16

 Twice in 3 years.

Fourth in a decade.

Six Iowa State coaches have gone to the Sweet 16. Otz is the only one to do it twice.

We are seeing the rare become common, be we shouldn’t assume this trip is ever to be expected. So many random things can get in the way.

Celebrate. Enjoy the ride. Even if it feels habit forming, you never know when it will return.

The view from the bottom of the hill

Our Cyclones went to Kansas City with a challenging draw- games against teams that had already beaten them. Yet they found a way to win each game comfortably.

Now they face a trip to Omaha with a challenging draw. (A faceplant against Drake would be an appropriate retribution for refusing to play Drake and Northern Iowa.) The draw is what makes the tournament fun- and it can't be truly evaluated beforehand, only after. But if the path is up the rough side of the mountain, so be it.

We have seen our Cyclones win several games even when the offense seemed lost, tired, distracted. Those are good experiences to have in one's pocket, to refer to when you find yourself in a challenging moment. Find a way, and play whoever is next.

Go drink Omaha out of beer.

Closers

A team that pulls a game out of the fire late might have gotten lucky.

The team that finds a way, night after night, might be good.

For the record, the CSJ staff loves the style of basketball that BYU plays. It is the perfect antidote to what Iowa State wants to do on defense. As long as they don’t give the ball away early in the possession, they should find an open 3 or a back cut into the lane. It’s beautiful basketball, and will be a challenge for the Cyclones every night out.

The last 15 minutes were a clinic of defensive adjustments and effort, and wrapped the first perfect home slate since Tinsley was at point. Been a while- but only because of what this team does on defense.

Here’s hoping they continue closing.

Levels

While it was often ugly to watch, our Cyclones played high level basketball in Houston Monday night.

The difficult start could have frazzled the team and resulted in a blowout. Instead, they scored 1.13 points per possession against the best defense in basket across the final 30 minutes. 

Unlike last season, the Cyclones will be able to score on just about every team in the tournament. While the trip to Houston didn’t deliver a win, the Cyclones came home with the confidence that they are ready for any stage.

Game On.

Data

The stats nerds are telling us that teams that make deep runs in March do things that are similar to the things that Iowa State does on the court.

It’s not that they are winning games- it’s that they are winning games by 10, and keeping the opponent at arms length for long stretches. Our Cyclone eyes aren’t used to seeing that.

Lots of doors are still open for this team. Enjoy the ride- it’s been a long wait. 

Difficulty

The average college basketball fan doesn’t realize the difficulty of maintaining a first half lead. A lot can happen in the final 50 or 60 possessions. 

Iowa State answered each of TCU’s runs today, and actually built the lead when Lipsey sat for 10 minutes in the first half. That’s a real luxury. 

A solid home win over a solid Big 12 team. Take care of business when you can.

Capacity

 It appears that when the Cyclones are playing well they can play very, very well, and on the road to boot.

The first 30ish minutes of the game in Austin speaks to upside Iowa State basketball hasn’t had in a while. It’s fun to witness again. 

I love a team that can run a simple pick and roll in crunch time for a dunk. That’s a good tool for the toolbox.

Doors are still open for this team. Here’s hoping we can walk through several of them. 

Freebies

 Saturday’s loss in Waco was a wild one- big offensive runs, a coach gets ejected, an angry crowd, both teams making plays and terrible mistakes, and a buzzer beater that doesn’t. But the game swung on the freebies.

With a final result that was wafer-thin, any little play could have been the difference. 11 missed free thrown are the obvious target, but so are a half-dozen missed inside shots that were rushed and errant passes that came from trying to do too much.

Now on to Austin, where a similar challenge awaits. One can never have too many tiebreakers in their pocket.

Fun With Camera Angles

So- Baylor opened a new gym this season! And lots of fans have lots of comments and about the camera angles from the center court position. The angle is- steep:

For comparison, notice where the hoop is compared to the old gym Baylor used:

The old gym camera angles placed the hoop on the bench, which is a more 'modern' placement. compare to Hilton:

The camera is lower and closer to the court than Baylor's old place, but the hoop is on the bench and further from the baseline.

Baylor's new angle is actually closer to Phog Allen than Hilton:

Similar to Cameron Indoor, too:

But it has a ways to go to be the angle at Gallagher-Iba before it was expanded in 2000:

(That's Fred Hoiberg guarding at the top of the key. Good times.)

Notice how close the hoop is to the edge of the lane! The game camera had to zoom out when play came to mid-court, the zoom in again at either end. You can watch the whole second half HERE.

Here is the current angle from GIA:

The angle is flatter than the old configuration, (similar to Cameron), and I suspect more in line with "normal".

Below is what I consider the most ridiculous camera angle I've seen in a game- Indiana's Assembly Hall in the 1980's:

The camera was even horizontally with the hoop! While it had a fun "sitting in the 10th row" feel, players often got clustered together visually (or blocked by a ref, as in the above example).

Above is the current camera angle. It's a bit on the steep side, but you can see what's going on.

To review- Baylor's angle is weird to modern eyes because it is closer to how things used to be. Revel in the retro feel!

Key Wins Equal Key Week

 Iowa State rode Hilton to two wins over KSU and KU, which keeps doors open for opportunity later in the year.

The Cyclones are still in play for: 

- A Regular Season Big 12 Championship, which they haven't won since 2001.

- A double buy in the now 14-team Big 12 Tournament. Fresh legs on Thursday.

- A friendly seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State is +1 in the old Tim Floyd rankings. 

With roadies to Baylor and Texa$ this week, they are playing with house money. An 0-2 week isn't a deal-breaker, but even one win keeps all of the above doors open. 

Go be great.

Double Dingers

Back-to-back nights of wild basketball wins in Hilton reminds us how fun Iowa State basketball can be on cold, snowy winter nights.

#2 Houston? Welcome to the Big 12. 

Ranked West Virginia with a new coach and roster? No lead is safe when the 3s start falling.

Buckle up everyone. This could be great ride.

Gameplans

Unfortunately, our concerns were correct.

The lesson from the last 9 games for the offense was to pass first, then run after the defense starts retreating to cover receivers. 

But watching Memphis tape for three weeks convinced the offensive staff they could run when and where they wanted. They were quite incorrect.

A more aggressive, pass first plan may have allowed Rocco Brecht to throw for 700 yards and ISU probably finds a way to win. The dream of an above average offensive line that can run the ball still eludes the Cyclones.

Credit to Memphis- they saw a game against a Power 5 team as the opportunity that it was and maximized it. They would be a fun member of whatever league Iowa State ends up in after the next round of conference realignment. 

The city of Memphis is still the best bowl destination for Cyclone fans despite the weather. 90 percent of the fan base can drive in, hotels are reasonable, and everyone can congregate on Beale Street. Give us game day weather that isn't in the 30's and its perfect.

Given where we were emotionally on September 17th, this season was an unqualified success.

On to basketball.

Opportunity

From our reading of the season stats, Memphis looks like Kansas on offense, but Cincy on defense. Contrast.

Hopefully the offensive staff pulls out the play sheets from the Kansas State and BYU games and keeps the Memphis defense honest by throwing the ball. If the staff over thinks things and focuses only on running the ball, they might start with three 3-and-outs and find themselves down 17-0 in the first half.

Until the Iowa State defense shows that it can slow the Memphis offense, the offensive staff has to come in with an Arenaball mentality: TDs on every possession are mandatory. Barring another gonzo day from Sama, the mixed scheme looks like a winner.

Hopefully ISU finds a way for a 10 point win- but don't be surprised if our collective butts are puckered in the 4th.

Anger and Joy

The staff of CSJ spent their Turkey Days listening to many disgruntled Cyclone fans who were eager to complain about the missed opportunities in the loss to Texa$. 

We understand they were eager to send UT to the SEC with 4 losses in the last 6 meetings, but consider how far the program and fan base has come. It wasn't long ago that Iowa State lost their first 7 meetings, and had 1-11 and 2-14 records against Austin. Suddenly we expect to win each matchup.

Simply put, Texa$ is both running towards an SEC payday and running away from schools like TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State. Athletes that wear the burnt orange can make peace with losing to a equal like Oklahoma, but losing to the other members of "The Angry Eight" is not what they signed on for.

We suspect that within four years the Texa$ administration will be caught wooing other schools for The Super League in a chase for even more dollars and an avoidance of losses to schools like Mississippi State and Kentucky. They helped blow up the Southwest Conference, tried to blow the Big 12 up twice, and will do the same to the SEC. It's all they know.

But Texas doesn't know snow. 

The weather that our staff had hoped would greet the Longhorns in Ames appeared in Manhattan a week later, and assisted the Cyclones in one of the most ridiculous wins in team history. 

35 plays, 42 points, 5 TD plays of over 60 yards, and a running back totaling the 4th best game in program history in his first start.

The 6 inches of snow on the field make life difficult for defenders as they couldn't use their normal tackling form. Rather than coming in waist high and wrapping up, all they could do is try to tackle while standing up. It can be done, but it's hard. 

Iowa State allowed 35 points on 102 (!) K-State plays, but none of them were backbreakers. The KSU defense allowed nothing but back-breakers. Each missed tackle was 6 points. 

It's a game that ISU fans will discuss forever, and the CSJ staff regrets not attending in person, because it will soon be legendary. 

It's a fun boat to be sailing.

 

Leveling Up

One narrative from the B12 FB season has been the struggles of "The New Four" against the legacy B12 teams. As we write this, the group is 4-17, with a bunch of blowouts in the losses.

Iowa State handled BYU Saturday with even more ease compared to their win over Cincinnati last month. Each program may be tough outs in the future, but this year the group lacks the beef in the trenches to be competitive week after week.

Saturday's win was a fun ride from the Cyclone side of the field. We witnessed both long drives and big plays on 5 TD drives, and a stingy defense that surrendered only 14 points, while gaining an INT, 3 Over-On-Downs and 4 punts. A solid day all around.

The best news was an offensive play sheet that featured lots of misdirection and throws down the field. More, please. The aggressive passing game clearly opens up the run game. 

Now comes two tough match-ups: A Texas squad that has a shot at the playoff, a KSU team that has been scary good for most of the season. Win either and the bowl seed jumps. 

But being bowl-eligible going into the Texas game is a huge bonus. Just hang around until the 4th quarter and perhaps UT makes a fatal error on a cold Ames night.

Age

 A few mistakes and the inability to adjust to defensive surprises doomed our Cyclones against second-year upstart Kansas.

But the CSJ staff noticed a funny detail when comparing the respective rosters:

Iowa State has 21 Freshmen or Sophomores in the 44 player two-deep.

Kansas only has 6.

Experience overwhelmed youth in an otherwise even game. That will happen.

Hopefully our Cyclones won't be a slump-buster for BYU late Saturday night.

Sloppy Domination

 It's odd for Cyclone fans to watch a football game and come away from a win feeling that a blowout was left on the table. It's a fun feeling, but still odd.

Which brings us to November football games that matter. Win the game in front of you and doors remain open, doors that looked closed back in September.

Score 30 points against KU and the Cyclones probably win. Keep KU under 30 points and the Cyclones probably win. Goals. 

Enjoy the ride.

The Mighty 'Mo

 Dominating as a road dog is the best.

Three solid wins against teams in the same weight class has put a bounce in the step of the CSJ staff. Four more games in the weight class has made us cautiously optimistic the CMC and crew could place a 13th game on our calendars.

Scoring points is fun. Winning is fun, too.

Beware The Ames

 The best nicknames are thrust upon you.

It's also nice to be on the other side of "We won the box score but lost the game". 

The Trice uniforms need to make an annual reappearance. 

The CSJ staff is growing cautiously optimistic with more manageable opponents on the schedule.

Keep improving.

Evolution

In the annual wild, drama-filled game against the Cowboys, it was great to see the offense nudge towards what the team can (potentially) do well and away from what it has shown it can't do in a consistent way.

The move towards the pass is natural (and obvious) but is most admirable as it goes against human nature. Change is hard for humans. The CSJ staff has dozens of habits that should be changed, but remain a constant in our lives. We applaud anyone who recognizes that change is needed- and actually follows through.

While the Cyclones aren't world beaters, there are a solid five games left on the schedule that could be considered coin flips. Opportunity awaits.

Change Or Maintain?

 We normals watch games differently from experts. We might have some idea of what the original design of a given play was, and can infer some idea of where a play succeeds or fails. But only a team's staff can accurately evaluate performance.

Through three games, the Iowa State offense is one of the worst in Power 5, and is the worst in total offense. Run blocking is atrocious. Only the staff can determine if that situation is going to improve or if a change in philosophy is warranted.

CMC found some success in his first five years by being a ground-first, ball control offense when most of the league was still running the spread and trying to score 60 each week. But now most of the league is looking to run, and Iowa State's offensive style is no longer the outlier. 

Go to the pass to set up the run? Stop running inside and get the ball to talent in space? Or keep trying to improve the zone blocking performance and try to "ground and pound"?

Others have sited the change in defensive philosophy after the 2017 Akron game, and that shift has changed football at every level. Abandoning areas where you are struggling and going all in on what you are (marginally) better at has merit.

The next few games will be interesting.

Not Enough, Again

There were several seasons in the late 1980's and 1990's when the margin between Iowa State and Oklahoma wasn't very big. The Cyclones would keep the game close (see '89, '92, '95, '98, and of course the win in '90)- but OU would find a way to win.

The TOE series is the same way. 

The series is much more competitive than the record over the last 20 games (7-13), but the TOE is so often just enough better to get the trophy. 

We hope the Cyclones can get a win or two in the series before the GoBlas are promoted to The Super Duper League and the football series ends forever.

Optimistic Start

Saturday was a lovely change of pace in the usually challenging series with UNI- an early lead revealed an Iowa State team that was shockingly better in all three phases of the game compared to the Panthers. A nice surprise all around.

Which brings us to the GoBlas. An argument can be made that outside of the 2016 debacle, CMC's crew has outplayed the TOE in the last five games, with only last year's win to show for it. It is the height of irony that a team that couldn't get out of its own way for most of the season (and tried to give the game away in the first quarter) strung together the most unlikely possession in Cyclone Football history: 21 plays, 99 3/4 yards, 11:49 off the clock for the winning TD. 

Hopefully all three units can avoid the killer mistake and find a way to beat a very talented but offensively flawed GoBla team.

Just Win, Baby.

Same old or something different?

The staff at CSJ can make both of the arguments for the 2023 Cyclone football season:

-Too many personnel losses and too many changes to staff and scheme keep the offense as the worst in the Big 12, and the team finish 4-8 again;

-The defense keeps the team in every game, and the offense improves just enough to find 6 or 7 wins to earn a trip to Memphis or similar.

We have our fingers crossed the latter is the tale that will be told. But given CMC's propensity to play game close, we will keep a big jar of Tums in arms reach every Saturday. 

Against UNI- the Purple Hawks will keep it close, but miss a 55 yard FG try at the gun and lose 14-13.

No style points- Just win, baby. 

Now We Know

Given the news of the week, we now know much of the path that lies before the football team.

Continue to be stout on defense.

Improve to merely average on special teams.

Run the ball with enough consistency that the QB doesn't have to carry the offense.

We have a large enough data set with seven seasons under CMC to know that while the team will find itself in more close games than the average program, the solid defense means they seldom have to put 40 on the board to win. Simply moving the offensive conference scoring average from 20 to 24 points per game would have resulted in a winning season. 27 points would have been smashing in the win column.

Here's hoping the new offensive staff can put more points on the board, and team team has better success in the margins.

With seven (!) coin flips on the schedule, the difference between 8-4 and 4-8 will be really small.

Farewell to the Old Guard

The CSJ staff sheds no tears when news breaks of coaches at all levels being dismissed for verbal abuse, hazing, or general jerkiness.

This style of coaching is a dinosaur in modern life. It is being weeded out of the workplace, yet we expect our kids to endure it as it "builds character". 

No, it doesn't. It only encourages a fear of failure, hesitancy, and caution.

Exposure of these behaviors is becoming more common as players are growing more courageous in documenting and reporting the abuse. The fact that athletes can now transfer if the coaches are inappropriate has also shifted the balance of power on teams- and coaches who are used to domineering behavior are quick to complain about how 'soft' athletes have become. But its obvious that the most abusive wouldn't take what they dish out if it was coming from anyone else in the life.

In the new world of athletics, player management is as important as recruiting and tactics. We will quickly learn who is better at each phase, but bad player management may get a coach fired the quickest.

In favor of the Mid-Majors

For the record, if the NCAA tournament makes any changes, it should shift its bids away from the power conferences and towards the Mid-Majors. 

The simple reason is that the 6th or 7th team in a Power 6 conference had plenty of chances to earn Quad 1 wins, since they play in a power 6 conference.

Mid-Major teams often struggle to get more than 1 or 2 Quad 1 games on their schedules, as the Power 6 schools have little incentive to play them. (Iowa State and awa's refusal to play Drake and Northern Iowa is Exhibit A) They should be given the benefit of the doubt.

More UMBC and St. Peters, (and, yes, more Hamptons and UABs) fewer 7th place finishes getting bids. And stop sending conference champs to Dayton for the First Four. They won their league, they get a proper seed.

Play Ball.

Courage

 A wild couple of weeks of Cyclone Basketball culminated if big wins in Kansas City.

The men shook off weeks of bad chemistry to earn two solid wins over Baylor and a decent effort against Kansas. They adjusted to the removal of a key cog in their game plan, and yet returned to the form that won them games up through mid-January. Adapting to sudden change takes both knowledgeable coaching and a willingness to adjust for the better.

The women's conference season and tournament title is just as remarkable. After losing two post players in January, the offensive plan was scrapped and the team reverted to the three-driven offense that had carried them for almost 30 years. This season was one of Fennely's better coaching jobs in his tenure. 

Having the conference MVP goes a long way. It's unfortunate that the best player in the Big 12 flies under the national radar because her game is so understated. She manages to get 21 and 10 every night without a single play that ends up on SportsCenter. It's low-key impressive. 

Now on to the tournaments. Both teams have manageable seeds, and can hopefully find enough offense to get to the second weekend. Regardless of their finishes, both teams earned athletic and mental victories this year.

Game on.

Variance

 Even when the men were playing well, they were prone to scoring droughts. Every hot streak could be met with a drought. 

By our math, a 60-54 was lost when the offense could only manage 9 points over their last 13 possessions while WVU managed to stay above 1 point per possession the rest of the way. 

If the Cyclones find a couple of buckets down the stretch, they probably pull it out.

They showed great courage to come out of half time and take the lead, but the last 7 minutes displayed the vulnerability this gritty but flawed team owns. 

The arc of the season changed when Grill tweaked his back reaching for a rebound against Texas. 

The good news is that they are in the tourney, and they way they play defense will give them a puncher’s chance against anyone. 

Chances

 It is a bit head spinning to consider where the Cyclones are compared to two seasons ago.

With 8 games to play, Iowa State has a puncher's chance at winning the league. Wild.

They will probably need to go 7-1 or 6-2 to pull it off, but to even have a shot at a ring is fantastic.

Of the six (!) teams with a decent chance at the title, we would put our nickel on the Jayhawk's square. They have the friendliest path, and will be favored in 5 or 6 of their last 7.

Buckle up.

Where we're at

 The good news is that Iowa State is going to be in every game this year. It's just going to come down to which team makes plays in the last four minutes.

So far, ISU has been on both sides of the end, and are now 2-2 in league road games. 

Still playing with house money.

Puncher's Chance

 Outside of a disaster in Johnson County (it wasn't the Gobla's Super Bowl, nope, no way, don't even suggest it), this Cyclone team has shown that it can go round-for-round with anyone. They've found a few more options on offense, so while they are hardly aesthetically pleasing to the basketball eye, they have avoided the droughts that plagued last year's team. They can win any game in any gym.

The Big XII is all-around ridiculous this year, so we doubt any game will be more than +10 either way. The Big Brains think 8 wins is enough for the tourney- any more will only improve the seeding. Stock up on Tums and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.

Winding down and cranking up

The 2022 football season ended with a thud. A motivated TCU squad overwhelmed our Cyclones, but they had no choice: A 17-14 win would have opened the door for the naysayers to question whether TCU was worthy of the playoffs, and maybe we should give two-loss Alabama another look. Style points mattered. 

Now we wait on staff changes and the comings and going in the transfer portal. Movement is inevitable, and we can only hope to come out on the plus side in the end. Any improvement on the offensive line and special teams and the program is in a good place to compete. 

Few are commenting on TCU's 5-7 record last year, where they only won 3 B12 games and had several blowout losses, including 48-14 in Ames. Teams can turn quickly.

Basketball is all upside, as both teams have post players they are adapting to. Each looked good in Oregon and showed they can compete with top flight teams. Offensive continuity will be key, especially the men.

Winter should be fun, and hopefully each team has a satisfying finish.

Memorable

 We now have data to confirm how large of a missed opportunity this Cyclone Football season has been, courtesy The Athletic:

From 2017-2021, teams with Top 10 in stop-rate (percentage of defensive drives that end in punts, turnovers or turnovers on downs) win at a .793 rate. Of those 50 teams, 31 won 10 or more games, 23 played for conference titles. 

Of those 50 teams, only one finished with a losing record, and in came in the COVID dominated season of 2020 when Air Force finished 3-3. 

ISU is 4-7.

Stunning. Doing unlikely things in unlikely ways. Playing literally "Exceptional Football".

Upright

 For one week, thanks to a big 4th quarter, Cyclone Football stopped taking on water.

This win certainly goes to the defense. 12 possessions, 8 3-and-outs, a 4-and out, and a 5-and out. 10 possessions, 33 plays, 57 net yards. That will win you a lot of games. Two scores given up on A) end-of-half prevent defense and B) end-of-half prevent defense full of second and third teamers. We can roll with that.

The hair raising part of the day was how long it took ISU to put the game away. On their first 9 possessions, ISU scored 10 points on 53 plays and 153 yards. No bueno. 

The rough-the-kicker penalty after a short ineffective drive was the turning point, to put it mildly. 38 yards on a run by Silas, two yard run, and a 24 yard TD pass to X finished a snappy drive that was surprising in efficiency. 

After another 3-and-out by the defense and another big Silas run leads to the clinching TD. Fun stuff.

The 4th quarter run game breakout was a relief to witness, and perhaps gives the fan base a tiny bit of optimism moving forward. Finding two more wins to gain bowl-eligibility is plausible but no gimme, but its a much better chair than most of us sat in last week.

This is still a relatively young offensive unit, especially with only two seniors in the two-deeps on the line. Perhaps a bit of growth happened Saturday.

Onward.

 

Consistency

Another week, another game that could have been won because of the defense, yet was lost because of the offense.

 The scheme struggles to find repeatable success. Three good plays will be met with a 5 yard loss. The line is often overwhelmed. The passing game can't throw downfield because Dekkers only has 1.5 seconds in the pocket. Everything is hard. Iowa State tends to be the best or second best game by B12 defenses on the season. OU and KU have seen their best games against ISU, and there's no second place.

It is becoming clearer that in the past Iowa State had the luxury of skill players who could overcome mediocre line play. Those days are gone. Either the line has regressed or the skill positions have taken a step back, or both.

With four games to go, it is unlikely Iowa State will either reach a bowl game or escape last place. 

The offense is losing all of the details in the margins.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

The Problem

 In three conference games, Iowa State is averaging 14.7 points. The 24 they scored against Baylor looks like an explosion in hindsight- they have only mustered 11 against Kansas and 9 against Kansas State.

Kansas has given up 42 and 38 in their other two B12 games. 

And yet- all three games were winnable with even slightly better execution- complete a pitch and catch on third down, hit the original hole rather than dancing around the backfield hoping to find a better one, etc. - and the team is 2-1 or 3-0 and all is right with the world.

The good news is there are lots of winnable games ahead on the schedule. But any win will require better performances on the offensive side of the ball or we have to quickly shift our attention to hoops like the Bad Old Days.

Offensive Crisis

Two games in a row where the defense (probably) does enough to win, yet the offense does far too little to win.

If you hold a team to negative yardage for a half of football, you should win. Full stop.

If you hold a team a full 2 yards-per-play and 26 points below their average you should win. Full stop.

If you run 43 plays on the opponents side of the field, call us crazy, but you probably should score more than 11 points.

There are multiple issues on the offensive side of the ball. Hopefully some of them get fixed soon, or we are staying home for the holidays. Considering that all seven remaining games are winnable, failing to find three more wins would be a waste.

Another Turning Point

The first turning point of the season was the trip to Iowa City. Fortunately, the Goblas weren't good enough to take advantage of all of Iowa State's mistakes, and the Cyclones got to bring home the ugly trophy.

Mistakes allowed Baylor to leave Ames with a win.

Given the balance of the B12 this year, a case can be made that every league game will be a turning point. But the trip to Lawrence will determine if our Cyclones will still have a shot at greatness, or will have to hustle to become bowl-eligible. 

Kansas comes in gaining 7.2 YPP (#7 nationally), while ISU is generating only 5 YPP (#50). Granted, ISU has faced two Top 10 defenses in their first four games, but that number is going to have to jump to win games in this league.

On defense the coin flips. ISU yields only 3.7 YPP, good for #7 (but that number is distorted by the terrible Iowa and Ohio offenses), while KU yields 6.3 YPP, #109 in the country, similar to the 6.6 that Ohio yields. 

The ISU defense is by far the best that KU has seen this year. Hopefully they can keep KU in the 20's and not the 40's. 

Which puts the onus on the offense to play a clean game, crank out first downs and score TDs in the Red Zone. If the offense can be consistent and score, this should be a win. 

If the offense makes the same kinds of mistakes the unit made against Iowa and Baylor- hang on to your butts.

Brace Yourself

We didn't realize it when CMC was hired, but a bargain had been struck, a bargain that requires a tax to be paid each year.

The benefit of the bargain? Competent football.

The tax? A loss to the Team Out East every September.

Almost every Cyclone fan would accept the trade in the long term, but the payment of The Tax grows more painful each fall.

It would be different if each loss came in the form of the 2016 beat-down- we would choose not to watch and mow the lawn instead. 

But no- the Cyclones have to outplay the Goblas each year, and then find a new ridiculous way to lose the same game.

It is fair that Iowa State fans might have a glimmer of hope given the results of each team's openers, but do not drink that drink so quickly- we all know how this will end. The exact verse will be different, but the song will remain the same.

Brace yourselves.

Steady as she goes

 While there are plenty of new faces in the two deeps, the CSJ staff remains cautiously optimistic that the improving depth in the roster will reveal a number of new stars for Cyclone fans.

IF- the defense can continue to be salty, holding teams below their season yardage and scoring averages, and- 

IF- the offensive line can give Dekkers enough time to throw downfield rather than running for his life, as Purdy often had to-

- we could have some fun this year.

But we are also big believers if trends. If your offensive line has been ordinary, assume it will continue to be ordinary. Thus, we see 7-5 this year.

Wins against SEMO and Ohio.

Losses against awa and Baylor, since Iowa State is kinda lousy in September.

Wins against Kansas and Kansas State.

Losses in Stillwater and against OU.

A win in Austin (trap game the week after they lose to OU, and their season basically ends)

Wins against West Virgina and Tech in Ames.

The patented we-played-like-crap-on-the-road-loss comes at TCU. 

Review

One team surprised all of college basketball and its own fan base by overachieving for most of the season. They pulled two upsets in The Tournament, and came very close to an Elite Eight appearance, a rare bird in Cyclone basketball.

Another team played high level basketball all season, and came within a game of a share of the B12 title. Their season also ended on the cusp of the Elite Eight, an ending most fans would have been happy with in October.

In retrospect, this was a much more entertaining winter than Cyclone fans expected. Next season could be on the same level and, with some breaks, even more interesting.

Enjoy the good seasons when they appear, as we never know when a drought will return.

Astounding

 Of the scenarios we thought could play out this weekend, the one that happened was the least likely. We were clearly wrong on almost every point of our last post. Happy to be wrong.

The men's defensive effort discombobulated both LSU and Wisconsin on offense. Wisky ended their game Sunday with more turnovers than made baskets. Just masterful. Ugly, but effective.

The difference between Friday and Sunday could not have been more stark. The Friday nail-biter was reversed with a Sunday first-quarter avalanche that Georgia was never able to dig themselves out from under. 

Add in the upset on the other side of the bracket, and Iowa State is staring at undiscovered country of their own.

It's a lot to take in, but its a very fun ride.

Bad matchups

 Someone on the seeding committee was unimpressed with the Cyclones last two weeks.

They struggle against quality defensive teams, especially ones that are physical. Who did they draw in their first two NCAA games? Physical defensive teams, both in the top 25 on defensive metrics. They won't survive the weekend even if they find a way to beat LSU.

(The GoBlas, on the other hand, were all but given a free pass to the Sweet 16. They get to play two teams in the 60's defensively. They will hang 90+ in both games and cruise. Figures)

The women didn't fare much better. Potential second round matchup Georgia looks like Texas on paper, and we know how those games went. Add in the potential rematch against TOE, and I think it will be a short tourney run for the women, too.

As usual, I hope to be proven wrong.

Trends

 As noted by Travis Hines @TravisHines21 at the DMR, the Cyclones had a very healthy 1.29 PPP in the first half against KSU, which may have been the best half of the season. The second half was only .719.

But viewing the second half as a whole doesn’t tell the whole tale. The Cyclones managed 18 points in their first 18 possessions, which would have easily won the game if they could have maintained that pace. They were still up 10 with 9:02 left.

But then the bottom fell out. Over their last 13 possessions only 5 points were scored. That’s a PPP of .38. There were 5 turnovers in the last 13 possessions, which resulted in 5 KSU points and buckets of momentum. 

Frankly, the insane start to the game in some ways doomed the Cyclones. Scoring 13 points in your first 6 possessions (2.16 PPP!) lets your subconscious think the game is over in the first 4 minutes. Holding an early lead like that for the remainder of the game is harder than it looks, especially for a team that has been playing from behind for six weeks.

There was a load of good in that game to build from, but this team can only play one way to generate the points needed to win.