Schedules

 This year should remind us that Strength of Schedule often comes down to luck.

As an example, let's look back at the B12 preseason media poll, where they actually finished, and the difference:

1 Utah 13 (-12)

2 KSU 8 (-6)

3 OSU 16 (-13)

4 Kansas 10 (-6)

5 Arizona 14 (-9)

6 Iowa State 2 (+4)

7 West Virginia 9 (-2)

8 UCF 15 (-7)

9 Tech 7 (+2)

10 TCU 6 (+4)

11 Colorado 4 (+7)

12 Baylor 5 (+7)

13 BYU 3 (+10)

14 Cincy 11 (+3)

15 Houston 12 (+3)

16 ASU 1 (+15)

The bottom eight teams in the preseason poll all finished better than expected, led by the Sun Devils. 

Iowa State was the only team in the top 8 to finish better than expected. Wow.

Time will tell if this year was an outlier, or if the order will jumble each year.

Based on the preseason, ISU was to play 9 games with a total SOS (in order of projected finish) of 72. They ended up playing a schedule of 89, and avoided 1, 2, 4 and 6. So it goes.

Nationally, Iowa State SOS was 47th. TOE was 53, despite playing in the impossibly rugged Big 10.

Since 2000, TOE has had an average SOS of 38, while ISU has battled a SOS of 25. ISU also had 5 seasons in the Top 10 of SOS. TOE had one, back in 2000. Those numbers are part of the reason that one team has averaged 8 wins this century, and the other has averaged 5.7.

Here's hoping ISU can improve their percentages.

Win-Win

I love to see Fred make scheduling moves like this.

A quality home-home each year, along with the SUI/UNI/Drake trifecta, helps build a quality noncon for the RPI. It's also nice to have a hint of how good the team is before league play starts.

I think ISU gets more out of this than Michigan. Recruiting exposure in Michigan helps ISU more than Iowa exposure helps UM. As a bonus, each team will view the games as winnable, which is nice.

Perhaps Fred can build a habit of road scheduling for seniors on the team like Duke does. So while Will Clyburn gets to play in front of his Detroit friends, and Korie and Chris get a return to the state of Michigan, we still need a game in Wisconsin for Scottie (Korie gets to play the hometown card on that one, too) and a trip to Georgia for Chris Allen. A home-home with Georgia tech would suit me.

Peter

Hubris, Entry #3245

Seems to roll around every year: "Drop Iowa State from the schedule. Why do we need them?"

My favorite post in the thread

Yes, ISU needs to get off of the Iowa Wellfare Program and drop them. Have some dignity, for Cripes sakes! Act like a D-1 program playing in a BCS conference.
ISU needs to go back and pay the financial difference back to Iowa, that the lopsided agreement has provided ISU, over the last 3 decades.
We accept check or cash. A public apology would go a long ways toward repairing ISU's dignity, but I wont hold my breathe.

:

Hubris, indeed.

Peter

Expectations

While I like John's writing, I take issue with this post.

True, Iowa State's non-conference schedule is really weak. But in June everyone thought ISU's team would be really weak, too. Their 9-2 record, and general level of play, is WAY above where anyone thought it would be.

Their schedule was set up to get them over .500- not to impress the NCAA committee.

The fact they have a mathematical chance at an NCAA bit is remarkable.

Peter

TV Thoughts

It's nice that we get a date with ABC this week, and the extra cash that comes with it. The rest of the Big 12 can check us out.

While I wish the CU game was televised, it also happens to be one of the weakest games on the B12 slate that week:

Saturday, Nov. 14
Texas at Baylor
Colorado at Iowa State
Nebraska at Kansas
Missouri at Kansas State
Texas A&M at Oklahoma
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Really, those are ranked in order of increasing watchability. Or put another way, the bottom four deserve to be on TV; thus, the top two don't. If I'm a TV exec, no games involving Baylor or CU get on my network. Deal with it.

Winning more games will fix the long-term problem for ISU.

Peter

Predictions

So the media see ISU finishing 8th this year. That seems odd to me.

If you have an All-American candidate and the preseason Newcomer of the Year and you are still predicted to finish 8th, the press must think the other 10 guys on the team really stink.

Based on the predicted order of finish, ISU should get 4 wins from CU and Nebraska, a road win at either Baylor or Tech, and home wins against Mizzou and Okie State gets them to 6. Two more home upsets and they are 8-8 and a lock for a NCAA bid. Good times.

Of course it never plays out as expected, but that's what the preseason is for.

Peter

Hit The Road

Since Jamie is pleased with our game in KC, and the accountants will love the extra $800K it brought in, I say ISU should hit the road to any "neutral" site game we can find:

- Anybody from the state of Texas at the Jerry Jones Palace
- Anybody from the Big 1011 at Soldier Field
- Anybody from the SEC in Atlanta
- Anybody from the Big East/ACC at the Meadowlands

You get the drift.

When you have the smallest budget in the league, and can increase your revenue with a neutral site game, hit the road, Jack.

Peter

Future

There is some good news on the horizon- winnable games.

This week's opponenet, Kent State, lost 34-7 at Boston College.
Army lost at home to Duke 35-19.
K-State lost on the road to LA-Lafayette.
Okie State is still good, but mortal.
CU woke up in the second half but still lost big to Toledo. They have a lot of work to do to win their predicted 10 games.

While the loss to SUI impressed nobody, there are opportunities ahead.

Peter

confidence

Bill must have some confidence there isn't a talent drop off if he's scheduling the likes of Duke. (cue applause)

Peter


update: So it appears it's the laddies who get Duke, not the ladies.

Good thing there are some other winnable games in that trip.

Peter

Courage In Scheduling

Bravo to KU for adding some meat in 2010.

The Fighting Manginos must think they can sustain this winning thing.

Here's hoping more schools follow suit.

Peter

Steal This Idea

I've got to like this kind of outside the box thinking.

Now, if one is willing to go on the road for a big payday, why not play somebody you don't normally see?

Regardless, I wonder if Texas or OU would bite at writing a big check to ISU for an extra home game some year they don't appear on the schedule?

Peter

The Homecoming Metric

We will know ISU football has escaped doormat status when schools stop scheduling our Cyclones for Homecoming.

KU has ISU for HC this fall.

We'll see if Nebraska and a$m choose the Cyclones, too.

Peter

Schedule Embarrassment

The Wiz of Odds brings up some embarrassing scheduling stats.

If anyone should be given a pass its our Cyclones. We gotta walk against North Dakota State before we can run with the likes Ohio State.

But UT and a$m gotta schedule BCS teams. At least ISU plays SUI every year.

Peter

Nutty Attendance

I guess I'm not a true fan as I've never attended a Sprig Game. Since I don't memorize the three deeps or look at grainy youTube video of offensive guards who are sophomores at Waving Grain High in west somewhere, I just don't get the value of a scrimmage other than it's kinda like football that counts.

Anyway, Hlas has a nice roundup of various Spring Football bits, including the attendance at various schools.

The snarky would note that more folks showed up for Auburn's spring scrimmage than often show up for games that count in Ames, but it's also fair to assume that a 5-19 start will be greeting by something other than the slight grumblings Gene might have heard in Ames, too. So it goes in the bigtime.

BTW- Hat tip to any DI school willing to schedule quality noncon opponents. If ISU had a revenue stream other than football I would be the first to applaud taking an "Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime" attitude to road games. Play a power on the road every year, and once you start beating a few you will know you have arrived as a program. That's how Bowden did it at FSU.

Peter

Final WBB Thoughts

I noticed last fall that BF had rolled out a pretty aggressive schedule (at Stanford, Vandy at home), and took it as a sign that he thought his ladies might have some game in them, and they should be tested.

Looks like he was right.

I now very curious what next season's schedule will look like.

Nice run. Nobody, and I mean nobody, does more with less than Bill.

Peter