Grinders

It was refreshing to watch our Cyclones find a way to win a game they would have lost only two years ago.

Progress is fun.

The next order of business is beating the three conference teams left on the schedule that the metrics say are not as good as Iowa State. Take care of business as the old saying goes.

Never the New Normal

The turnaround over the last 24 games has been so dramatic- from slumpbuster to The Team That Kills Title Dreams- it's a little hard to comprehend that beating Top 10 teams may no longer be an outlier, an unusual event, for fans of Iowa State.

Even as each win grows in surprising scale- this time tripling WVU in yardage and winning by 16 in a game that could have been won by 30- Cyclone fan never forgets to act surprised, because each giant win is new to the consciousness.

Hopefully, regardless of how many more crazy wins are in the program's future, the fan base will embrace each as if it's the first one.

Progress

Saturday proved progress both in a week-to-week sense and in the narrative arc of the Campbell tenure.

Iowa State should have beaten the Cowboys the last three seasons, but Saturday had the moxie to take a lead after a bad start, and then to respond each time OSU closed to within a score. They broke through that mental wall.

In 2014, TCU blasted Iowa State 55-3 on their way to a 12-1 season. They should have been in the playoff, while our Cyclones surrendered 466 points in that season. (In comparison, TCU gave up only 247 that year.)

The last two years, TCU has scored 21 points total against ISU. You don't need many things to go your way to win with that kind of scoring defense. We will get to enjoy plenty of wins playing in that kind of sandbox.

The program continues to bend towards consistently solid football, so wins should follow. Watching a breakout performance by a QB is fun, but I remember Steele Jantz and Sam Richardson having big breakout games, too. Its easier to do when the defense hasn't seen you on tape.

The big challenge will be against West Virginia, a quality team with a week to prepare. Cross your fingers the home team has the better scheme and execution.

Muddled

The OL- whoof. Any running play that requires a pull or trap is a guaranteed loss of yardage, as blockers can't block their man long enough for the play to develop. Best to stick with step-and-hit until the skill or the personell improves.

The defense remains solid, and it's fun to see so many different numbers getting snaps during the game. The depth will come in handy.

We shouldn't complain about a win, but it's in our nature. Red Zone failures will come back to bite our collective butts down the line. Field Goals won't beat TCU.

Close but still lacking

Hopefully this is the new normal.

When your team has the smallest budget in the Big 12, all you can ask is to play well enough to have a shot in the 4th.

The Cyclones have missed two chances in close games. They will win their share if the quality of play holds steady.

Standard

A quick review of the SUI-ISU series over the last decade:

2018- Can't move ball after first possession; hung around, lost by 10
2017- Score 41, gave up 44 to team that averaged 27 in the rest of their games
2016- Blowout
2015- Tied in 4th quarter, lose by 14
2014- The infamous "ice the kicker" win (ISU would go 2-10)
2013- Trailed most of game, late rally to lose by 7
2012- The 9-6 win in IC against an SUI team that went 4-8
2011- Bonkers 3OT 44-41 win over 7-6 SUI squad
2010- Blowout
2009- Blowout

Summary: 3 blowout losses, 4 hang-around-but-lose-anayway losses, 3 wins on the last play.

The last decade could be 0-10.

Given the football budgets of the two programs, 3-7 is about what one would expect out of Iowa State. But if the program expects to move to the middle of the Big 12 pack, they have to find a way to beat teams like SUI and Kansas State more than half the time. It's the next mountain to climb.

Hollywood

The best tale to tell today would be Coach Campbell returning to the scene of the most humiliating loss of his Iowa State tenure to win in commanding fashion, proving that the turnaround of Cyclone Football is complete.

But this ain't Hollywood.

SUI contains the ISU running game, forcing ISU to win with the pass. Mistakes are made, SUI gets too many short fields and wins 24-10.

Unknowns

Four minutes of football were not enough to get a feel for the 2018 Cyclones, even if the game did not count. Now the team will have to work out its first game issues in Iowa City. Super.

The fans of The Best Football Program Without A National Championship probably see a blowout win like Iowa State's last visit, and given the B12's performance last week, (Tech, Texas, The State of Kansas) who can blame them?

7-5

The CMJ staff sees a 7-5 year for the Cyclones in 2018.

Wins over South Dakota State, Akron, Tech, Kansas, Baylor, and two out of Okie State, West Virginia, Texas and K-State.

The defense will be solid again, but I'll believe the OL is ready to consistently run block when I see it. And it's hard to be +10 in turnover margin two years in a row.

The '17 squad was luckier than average than the Iowa State team, too. No major injuries, when one QB flaked out the backup turned out to be great, forcing a turnover when they really needed one, etc. Some of those things will revert to the mean this year.

But they should keep every game close, which will be fun, if frustrating. Enjoy the ride.

Big Fans

Obviously, Iowa State fans are going to be cheering like mad for Ohio State Football to go 12-0 and look good doing it.

Style points will matter. They can't beat Indiana by 3.

Star Treatment

Why would ESPN have a stat window of one of the players over the score in a basketball game? If you have to ask, the window isn't for you.

Trae Young is being given the NBA Star treatment by ESPN, because ESPN probably has data that viewers who don't normally watch college basketball are tuning into Oklahoma games to check in on Young in the same way they bounce around NBA games hoping to see someone drop 10 points in a few possesions. ESPN wants that casual viewer to see that Young is having a good night, and hang around for more.

I understand that a fan can feel slighted if a player for their team is having a better night than The Star, but its one of the many ways the company putting the game on TV will try to pay the bills.

I'm old enough to remember when not every game was on TV. This is worth it.

Patience

The second half of the football season and Prohm's track record with teams improving as the season rolls along should remind everyone that patience is rewarded in Ames.

Long term, both teams are trending in the right direction. Enjoy the right despite the bumps.

Petty

It is appropriate that Iowa State now plays Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down" at the 3rd quarter break, as it describes the attitude of the football program under Coach Campbell.

Given Iowa State's lack of both football budget and tradition, the CSJ staff has low expectations for Cyclone Football. All we ask is to get yourself within one score in the 4th, and find a way to win half of those games. So far this season they are 2-2 in those games, and the second half has been the better half for this team.

Don't back down.

Don't Blink

This football team has had plenty of moments to fold, to collapse, to blink.

The last three games, they have not.

On physical ability, this team scores above average for Iowa State football.

Schematically they have the right mix of matching players abilities to the jobs that needs doing.

But it's the mental stability of this group has been most remarkable. Press on in the face of adversity. Run your stuff. Find a way.

I don't recall an Iowa State football team this patient with itself. It's putting Cyclone fan in unknown territory, walking a new road. This may not be the fool's errand a few other season have been.

Enjoy the ride. We've waited a while.

Business

That's what a serious, focused football program should do.

A wet track and bad opponent deserved a vanilla offensive plan, and the offense looked it. But KU bumbled their way into the least impressive blowout you will ever see. The stats don't describe how much of a mismatch the game was.

The next four games- Tech, TCU, WVU, Okie State- are a serious upgrade in quality, and provide four opportunities to break through to the middle of the conference standings.

Being able to say maybe is a great change of pace.

Tradition

A typical Cyclone football team of the past would follow an epic win with an inexplicable loss.

The 1990 team followed their win in Norman with a blowout loss at home to Nebraska and a horrid loss on the road to Kansas State. The next year KSU went 7-4 and went to a bowl game, so that win was an early sign of progress for Snyder.

The great 2005 team allowed Baylor to break a 37 game B12 road losing streak in Ames.

I expect a long slog on a wet track against KU. Here's hoping we aren't too grumpy at the end.

Worst/Best

If the Oklahoma press is calling it "The worst loss in Sooner history", then it has to be the best win in Iowa State history.

Given the premise before kickoff, agreed.

Here's hoping it's not an outlier.

Just Good Enough To Not Get Blown Out

In Normal Times of Cyclone Football, Texas beats the Iowa States of the world 45-10.

Apparently we are not living in Normal Times, as Texas is ordinary and some believe Iowa State improved- which explains losing 17-7 and not 45-10.

Considering that Texas spending on football probably exceeds Iowa State spending on sports, keeping it interesting into the 4th quarter can be considered an achievement.

Progress can be odd sometimes.

Regardless, without a win against Iowa or Texas, the bowl math gets very difficult, and would be a triple-bank-shot of some kind.

Just keep grinding and hopefully the improvement becomes real.

Gap Closed

It was nice to push The Team From Out East to their limit for a change. The talent gap has closed, and the knowledge of what the plan is has clearly improved from 12 games ago.

But the Cyclones still found a way to lose a game they should have won.

Horseshoes and hand grenades is ISU's strength under Campbell. At some point they have to push through.

But it's more fun to be standing at the corner than looking for a corner ahead.

Measuring Sticks

The benefit of starting the season with the same opponents as last year is that it's easy to measure progress.

The solid win over UNI was a vast departure from 2016. Improvement.

CSJ staff still isn't convinced that the ISU defense can stop a quality running game, and they will see a quality running game this week.

CSJ also isn't convinced the offense can score against a quality defense, and they will see a quality defense this week.

CSJ thinks the Cyclones lose by 14. So it goes. You get what you pay for.

Somehow They Find Six

Clearly, the Cyclone's Bowl Cake will be baked in September.

Find 3 wins out of the first 4 and they are in good shape. Several winnable games out there against teams with question marks.

Football trended up from week 3 of 2016, and 2017 has plenty of yardsticks to measure if the trend is still positive.

There will be an upset along the way, and at least two "should have won that" losses. It's The Cyclone Way. But six wins will be found, and a bowl trip to perk up the holidays.

Review

The further away we get from basketball, the more I think we won't see a run like that again.

So entertaining, so maddening, so close to new heights.

It wasn't that they won so many games, it was how many they pulled out of the fire with ridiculous finishes. That's what made the 6 year run so remarkable.

Cherish it.

Hello Again

Welcome back to the randomly published blog. So many distractions-

Maddeningly Entertaining

I suspect the basketball season is going to be maddeningly entertaining. Every game will be a cliffhanger regardless of the quality of opponent. There will be as many thrilling upsets as head scratching clunkers (Exhibit A: Iowa City).

BYO Tums.

Constants

Sometimes you win (SJS, KU, Tech)

Sometimes you lose (UNI, Baylor, Okie State, KSU)

Sometime you just get beat (SUI, TCU, OU, WVU)

Get better winning the close ones and the Cyclones will be on to something.

That works

Trucking a team by 56 in record fashion, a team that beat you by 30+ the year before?

Maybe there is something to The Process people keep talking about.

Corner turned?

Big Finish

Quite the turnaround after a lousy first half. The key was the response once KU went up 24-16:

ISU: 10/80 TD
KU: 5/10 Punt
ISU: 5/70 TD
KU: 10/42 Downs
ISU: 13/42 FG
KU: 2/2 INT
ISU: 3/-14 End of game

That's how you finish. A needed change from the endings earlier in the season.

Forward.

Punching Above Their Weight

Our Cyclones are becoming The-Team-You-Don't-Want-To-Play, but their mistakes are keeping them from grabbing the wins they are close to earning.

ISU: 4 dropped passes, all would have been first downs
OU: 0 drops

ISU: At least 4 wild overthrows of open receivers, each would have been a first down or TD
OU: 0 overthrows

ISU: 3 3-and-outs
OU: 1 3-and-out

Those little differences were what won it for OU. Better talent, fewer mistakes.

The Horse Latitudes

Cyclone Football finds itself stuck in windless territory. Enough talent and skill to compete, not enough talent and skill and mental capacity to win. Danny Mac spent a decade in this space, with only a few wins to show for it. CPR had dozens of close calls, but never broke through for an extended period.

Now it's Campbell's turn to try and round the corner and get to more interesting territory.

Goals

Be decent at football before the next big conference realignment happens. Hoops doesn't carry the broadcast rights mail.

Expectations

The Process is trending positive faster than expected. Now comes the hard part.

Iowa State took a 14 point lead five times. Going up 21 would have won the game. Gaining a few first downs in the fourth might have won the game.

Campbell and staff now have to exercise the "find a way to lose" demons from the football team pshyche, and it won't give up easily. Pulling that off will be their toughest coaching job.

The good news is that the team and fans now know they have a punchers chance in every game. Wins must follow.

My Uniform Complaint

I am a bit of a uniform geek, but within reason. Want to mix up your look? Great! Want to add colors that are not part of your normal palette? Bzzzzzz! Thanks for playing.

I ranted about this years ago, so here is my definition of the uniform sandbox the team can play in at home:

Red/Red/Gold: Classic home look. Wear this most of the time.
Red/Red/Red: Good alternate for home.
Red/Gold/Red: Garish, but given the alternatives for alternatives, it sure beats grey/grey.
Red/Gold/Gold: A nice throwback to what ISU wore in the 20's.
Gold/Gold/Gold: I would love a gold helmet, especially with the Criner-era logo.
Gold/Red/Gold: Another great look.

Lots of options there. Now on the road:

Red/White/Red: My preferred road kit.
Red/White/Gold: Another classic look.
White/White/Red: If the players want a white helmet, pair it with red pants.
Gold/White/Gold: Another good look that goes back to the awesome Bruce teams of the 70's.

Two pairings to avoid: The all-white look does nothing for me, and I don't want to see white pants and helmets at home. As long as the jerseys have gold numbers, white pants or helmets don't work.

My $.02.

Iowa State Knows The Way (To Beat) San Jose

That was the Register headline from a win over SJS back in the 80's. I salute anyone who can quote Bacharach in their writing.

Everyone agrees there is visible improvement out there. Fewer penalties, fewer mistakes that result in big plays (or big plays erased), less thinking and more doing. With 60 (!) Freshmen and Redshirt Freshmen on the roster, there is a lot of player development going on in front of us. It's going to be uneven, so every positive needs to be acknowledged.

But the grey uniforms- oof. Those are hideous.

The Grind

This is where the season gets hard mentally. A winnable game is followed by several that probably are not, yet the team needs to improve as individuals and as a group.

Keep grinding. It's the only road out.

Baseline

Hopefully the All-White uniform combo is now so tainted it will never be worn again. It was 11 White Flags of Surrender running around last night.

I am optimistic that Campbell will have a better start than 4-19, like another now worshiped coach began his tenure back in the last century.

We now have some solid baseline performance data. Get back to work.

Less Of The Same

We will see big improvement from the offensive line tonight, maybe even a competent running game, so the game won't be the wipeout many expect. There may even be moments of hope.

But there will be enough stupid mistakes at critical times to keep ISU on the losing end. Iowa by 10.

Feedback Loops

During my time in business school, there was a lot of discussion about feedback loops, both positive and negative, and how they can effect your organization. A manager must be willing to examine every part of his organization and operation to maximize the areas of strength and fix the areas that need repair.

Good managers do this well and it is part of their success. Bad managers ignore weaknesses they are uncomfortable changing, or strike too close to home, and those weaknesses are a drag on the company.

Which brings me to Bill Fennely. I attended dozens of women's basketball games at Iowa State before his tenure, and his program is light years ahead of his predecessors. I assume a program with continued success closely examines everything it does and changes any part that isn't working: an in-bounds play that fails to work, a bad defense against an opposing star, poor match-ups between players, how well an assistant breaks down tape or recruits, and on and on and on. Fix the problems or find a new gig, sometimes out of basketball.

Fennely's public reaction to a racial discrimination suit by a former player gives me pause, however. The "I've done nothing wrong" stance may be a smart legal strategy, and will play well to supporters, but I hope it is not the official line behind closed doors.

Fennely has an opportunity to improve as a coach, as the people around him will be most open at this exact moment. He needs to reach out to as many former players and staff as possible and ask "How can I not cause this level of rancor with a player in the future?". The solution isn't to abandon his coaching style completely and try to be a "player's coach", but I suspect it is in dialing back what he does with individual players a few degrees. Deliver criticism succinctly, and then move on. Demand what you have always demanded, but with a bit more restraint in the delivery.

If an assistant coach was being sued, that assistant would be expected to change or would be dismissed. For a program to be healthy and succeed, the same must be asked of the head coach too.

The Long View

Basketball has been over nearly a month, and I'm still undecided on how to view the season.

Naz's bum hips, obviously cost the team a few games, maybe a shot at the conference title, a better seed in the NCAA's, and a run at the big banner. So it goes. You need a lot of luck with your health to win the big prizes.

Prohm was wise to let the team fail a bit doing things the old way before laying down the lay that his way was the only way. It's unfortunate that he couldn't make the old-way-failure occur sooner.

 For all of Fred's weaknesses as a coach, mostly defensively, he is clearly a master psychologist. We now have numerous examples of players who managed well under his supervision, but were head cases outside of it.

Hopefully sacrifices that were made in the interest of long term health of the program will pay off.

In a league that is this consistently good, to be a program in the top half of the league each year is to be celebrated. The Niang years may also be viewed as a period of just missing out, not getting the break they needed.

Grey Beard Blog

I just noticed that I've been publishing this sucky blog off and on for 11 years. To my 17 readers, thank you.

A few things have changed. In 2004, Van De Velde was AD. Dan McCarney was finding ways not to win the Big 12 North. Wayne Morgan was in his first year, picking up after the Larry meltdown. Nebraska, Colorado and Missouri were all conference foes.

ISU finished 123rd in the Director's cup standings. They were 45th in 2015.

When you take the long view, things have improved tremendously, and Athletics as a whole punch above their weight. But work needs to be done.

This blog can improve, too.

Data Points

Cyclone basketball has enough data points to confirm that a certain degree of defense is required to win ball games.

Push-shove-grab style that West Virginia plays, but it can't be Saturday-at-the-YMCA either.

I suspect the coaching staff has the advanced stats to show the offense is most efficient after a defensive stop. You have to try on both ends.

The Cyclones have shown they can beat anyone on the schedule. Playing enough defense in the last ten B12 games and things could get interesting.

Campbell

The bar is pretty low for a new coach, but Campbell has certainly won his first few days on the job. Says the right things, does the right things.

Hopefully it leads to winning.

Campbell does have one advantage- having coached against Iowa State the last two seasons, he knows exactly what he is walking into from a personnel and scheme standpoint. Few surprises.

Simple Math

Winning football games at Iowa State is a simple, two step process:

A. Hang around games until the 4th;

B. Win games in the 4th.

Rhoads was 10-6 his first three years in 10-point-or-less-games, but only 3-13 his last four years.

The constant underdog has to stay above .500 in the close games to survive.

Seven wins across his last four seasons would not have set the world on fire, but it would have meant a bowl trip and keeping one's job.

Finding Yet Another Way To Lose

This week: Fumble on three of your last four possessions, including with 10 seconds left on the opponent's 30!

While this isn't the biggest margin given up by ISU ('92 at home to Kansas, up 45-14, lost 50-47) this was the most painfull, since that KU team finished 8-4. K-State probably ends 5-7.

In the big picture, the Cyclones have been blowing second half leads for 35 years under 6 different coaches- why would changing staffs result in wins?

Our Lady Of Perpetual Disappointment

A program like Iowa State can't consistently give up 4th quarter leads if it's going to get anywhere.

The loss to Okie State was the third game just this year they probably should have won.

Five first downs in the second half isn't going to do it. Iowa and Toledo were similar stories.

Same some, different verse, different decade.

Effort

Few things are more fun than watching your 3 star guys out scheme and outwork 5 star guys.

Most of the time talent is able to make the key plays to pull a game out of the fire. But not this time.

Slumpbuster

The CSJ staff has been watching Cyclone football since 1974, so they know what a bad football team looks like.

Kansas is a bad football team.

That doesn't lessen the importance of Saturday's blowout. The team needed to smack somebody around. The fans needed to see the Cyclones smack somebody around. Fortunately, the Cyclones were able to smack somebody around.

The defense is solid, and it will be interesting to see how they do against the high octane spreads in the rest of the league.

It would be nice if the offense could get get something going in their first 3 or 4 possessions. Lots of heartburn in Trice as drives stalled in the red zone, if they got going at all.

At least Iowa State won't go oh-fer the season. They may be on a 1-17 streak come Thanksgiving, but we will worry about that then. Celebrate!

Step One: Success; Step Two?

Iowa State's win over UNI confirmed one thing: The Cyclones are able to beat quality FCS competition, and they did so without running the ball very much. Other have noted they didn't really try to run- no outside runs, no read-option- but they moved the ball well and scored above last season's average.

Now comes SUI. As usual, the GoBlas are favored, and they looked good dismantling Illinois State. Yet I won't be shocked if Iowa State beats them again, for two reasons:

- Iowa drops a road game for no good reason each season. They are a different team in the white jerseys

- Iowa often gets a case of Tight Helmet (and/or Tight Headset) against Iowa State. They shouldn't, but they clearly do. Iowa has been the better team overall in most of their losses to Iowa State since 1998, so some part of Iowa State's success has to be mental. If nothing else, Iowa State comes into this game each year knowing they have more at stake. ISU has fewer winnable games each year than Iowa, so they have to take advantage of every opportunity. Iowa views the game as Just Another Game- it rarely makes or breaks their season when it comes to bowl-eligibility. They don't have to put extra weight on it, so they don't.

Iowa State has won 3 of 4 in the series after Iowa won 3 straight, but the road team has won the last 3.

Iowa State's next challenge is to prove that they can beat Poor to Decent FBS teams, and Iowa is certainly in the Decent category. Until I see a running game emerge and how the reconstructed defense competes with a quality offense, I expect Iowa to win by 10. Unless they get Tight Helmet, the ISU by 3.

Go with the streak

Until shown otherwise, I will assume Iowa State can't beat top level FCS teams. UNI by 10.

Game On

This isn't original analysis, but we are going to know everything we will need to know about Cyclone Football in the first two weeks.

I can't help but wonder how many Cyclone fans are privately hoping for losses to force a change in football leadership. 10%? 20%?

If the season starts 2-3 rather than 4-1, the debate will shift from If to Who.

Expansion Wishes

Since rumors of expansion has risen again, here is who I would invite if I was King:

BYU- large, loyal, national, underrated fan base. Mega eyeballs. Scheduling around Sundays is not a deal-breaker.

Cincinnati- Big media town, travel partner/rival for West Virginia.

Central Florida- Every school gets to travel to (and recruit) Florida!

Tulane- Every school gets to travel to NOLA! Downside- Tulane might not want to associate with Tech academically.

I know, that would be 14. But the Big10111214, the ACC and the SEC all make 14 work. It can't be that hard.

Besides- when the next big shakeout comes down there won't be enough chairs for the Big Time Football Lotto Payout Table for every school that wants in. This group includes Iowa State. But squatters have rights, and it will be much harder for a league to toss out a member than to pull in a new one. Better to start on the inside.

Post Fred, On to Prohm

During the crazy heights of the Eustachy era, LE would often start the post-game chat with Pete Taylor with some version of "celebrate night like this, because you never know when they will end".

Hiring Fred was a giant risk, but one that came up paid out far more than it didn't. Uncountable fun games in a short period, and a lifetime of "what-ifs".

Better to have had the time with him than not. Hopefully Prohm has similar or greater success, but perhaps he won't. Winning at this level is a difficult and volatile cocktail of talent, skill and luck. If it was easy to mix everyone would be doing it.

Embrace the good times, you never know when they will end.

Post Mortem

The eventual winner of the NCAA Tournament came from Iowa State's bracket. The team has to wonder what was left on the table. That makes two missed opportunities for a Final Four run in two years.

Hopefully those facts fuel their off season work and next season's play. Answer the bell every time. Focus. Hustle.

One comforting tidbit from tonight: This year's champion lost in the first round of last years tournament as a 3 seed.

Now Things Get Interesting

Down three ranked teams in a row, the last two on the road?

You intrigue me Cyclones, you really do.  Running the table now looks like more of a possibility than it did two weeks ago.

Too bad KU doesn't have many losable games left.

Improvement, but-

It was fun watching the Cyclones beat a ranked team by 20. The defense was solid start to finish, and the offense wasn't too rattled by WVU's constant pressure.

Often defense is just effort, like closing out on 3 point shooters. But I'm taking Saturday's success with a handful of salt, considering that the half-court is not where the Mountaineers get their work done.

Okie State? Texas? Half court teams. Slow them on the road and I will consider myself a believer.

70 Minutes of Awful

I watched all 80 minutes of basketball played by Iowa State on Saturday- the women in Ames, the men on my telly. The two teams combined for about 10 minutes of entertainment. The rest was hard to watch.

The opponents were to blame. The Defense First, Defense Second, Offense If We Find It school of basketball played by both Kansas State and South Carolina is a bastardization of the sport. It may win games, but it has to suck the joy from the sport for both spectators and player alike. The prevalence of the style in the women's game is the single biggest factor holding the sport back from wider public acceptance. Like hockey, a couple of goons can reduce a free-flowing sport to a brawl.
 
The reason Iowa State has such a solid following is that when able, they are fun to watch. Too many opponents lace up their sneakers only to start a street fight on the court. But the audience that likes a street fight is going to choose the MMA over women's hoops every time.

The leagues could mandate a change by ordering referees to call fouls, but when a majority of the coaches in a league prefer Brawling over Scoring, no mandate will come. Referees will continue to ignore all but the most egregious fouls, and the sport descends to the level of the most violent and least skilled.

The only thing that will break the Street Fight Defense school of coaching will be sustained success of teams who put offense first. When defensive coaches lose too many games and recruits to offensive coaches they will have no choice but to switch styles.

The switch can't come soon enough.

Thump

So the football season ends like this:

Two wins that could have been losses.
Five losses that could have been wins.
Five losses that were over at the opening kick.

Few Cyclone fans expect to go 10-2, but having a puncher's chance in most games will keep the crowd happy. Winning a majority of the close ones will, too. Close out a couple of the games where you had leads in the fourth quarter and the grumbling isn't as loud.

Is the program that critically broken? 5-19 over two years says that something needs to change, and given the long-term results of ISU football, the cure is probably something radical.

Would a beefed up walk-on program help plug the gaps when injuries set in? Would bringing in more projects and putting them on partial schollies get anywhere? Would a tweener choose a quarter ride at Iowa State over a full-ride at Illinois State or Northern Illinois?

I suspect that given the choice, a DC would take a senior who was a two-star recruit over a freshman who was a three-star. Just understanding where to be can make all the difference, and that's something that only comes through experience and reps.

Just throw numbers at the problem- having 40 Quarters on your squad should yield you the 4 senior injury replacements you need to hold things together. Let the Quarters (and former Quarters, once they earn full-rides) wear the experience like a badge of honor. K State has 55 players in their two-deeps who were once walk-ons. When you can't get 5 star talent, filling the gaps can make the difference.

One Thing At A Time

Clearly the Gods of Sport are allowing our Cyclones to only be good at one sport at a time. As one ascends, the other declines.

Close and not so close

There will always be days for Cyclone Football like last Saturday- a physically better team in need of making a statement does just that. Weaknesses get exploited over and over.

The mismatch games only highlight the need for Iowa State to be deadly in close games. Pull out the two they found a way to lose and they are 4-4, 2-3 in conference, and in a whole different mental state. They have to develop a reputation that puts doubt in the mind of the opponent when the game is within a score in the 4th.

"Don't let them hang around" has to be the calling card.

Red Zone

The Cyclones were better on offense against Toledo, and all but two of their possessions went for multiple first downs and chances to score. But it was in the red zone the Cyclones almost lost the game. Had the three first half field goals been touchdowns, ISU probably leads at the half and wins going away. Instead, we all had to hold our breath during an onside kick try.

The play of the game may have been turned by Nigel Tribune. On a 50 yard run by Toledo, Tribune ran the running back down for a tackle at the ISU 25. The Rockets had to run 8 plays over three minutes to get the TD to draw within 7. Had he Tribune let the back go for the score, the offense would have needed to burn four minutes off the clock, a tough trick when you are only averaging a short 3 yards per carry. It would have been antacid time had things played out that way.

A win is a win is a win. This may be a good time to play Texas.

One Step Forward

It's wonderful when your team finds a way to win a game the other team isn't interested in finishing. Many of the predictions were predicated on "Iowa State can't finish, so Iowa should win", so it's nice to put that to bed for a little while.

I find it funny that it's now Iowa City that can only get a sellout when the visiting team sells a lot of tickets,  since that was an issue that dogged Cyclone fans for years.

Yet each win by Iowa State pushes the end of the football series closer to reality. Iowa isn't interested in this Cy-Hawk thing if it means losing to Little Brother half the time. Iowa State needs to get their licks in while it can.

Re-Run

I've been watching Cyclone football for about 40 years now, and I've seen what transpired today about 75 times in that span. Stop me if you have heard this before:

- Spunky undermanned Cyclones surprise everyone by playing over their heads.
- A couple of crazy plays results in an Iowa State lead
- Spunky Cyclones have chances to put the game away, don't
- Opponent says "Thanks, we'll take the win"


And people wonder why Cyclone fans are a cynical, paranoid bunch?

When you have the smallest budget in the league you have to keep your expectations modest. Being a tough out is your goal. But you have to take advantage of a situation when you can, otherwise your opponents will just wait for you to fall apart.

Bottom

Make no mistake- North Dakota State is a solid team. They would be middle of the pack in the Power 5 conferences, and would push to win a league like the MAC or Mountain West.

But giving up 34 unanswered to a team not named Baylor is going to raise serious questions about the direction of your program.

Data point: Since ISU's 2012 upset of Baylor, the team is 4-14. Two of those wins are over Kansas.

You don't have to win at Iowa State, but you do have to look competitive.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;

-and so we being another football season in Ames, staring down another insanely hard schedule. Literally no gimmes when you include a favorite to win the Big 101112 West/Legends Division, a favorite to win the MAC and the three-time defending FCS champ. Whew.

Several have made the argument that ISU will go 3-9 or worse, Rhodes should be canned, etc. etc. etc. In other words, another typical summer expectation synopsis for the Cyclones. If the OL is riddled with injuries like 2013, 0-12 is in play. Magino can only do so much when the QB is running for his life, getting injured, and then is unable to run for his life due to injury.

My short answer: If the OL stays healthy and the offense can average 28+ per game, they find a way to get to 6-6 and a bowl invite. (It's all any of us want, really.)

But if the OL has to start using backups for extended snaps, look out below.

The White Whale Arrives

As I wrote at this time last year, I wasn't opposed to the idea of bowling in the south end of Jack Trice, I just didn't think it made financial sense.

But Pollard, the mad genius that he is, has found a way to make the numbers work. By adding a massive "Club Section" in the end zone seating area, 3000 fans will get the privilege of spending $750 on a season ticket that before was only $99. Granted, the club section will have amenities the current seating lacks- like a place to go when it gets too hot, too cold or too wet and porcelain toilets rather than Porta Potties. I suspect that section will sell quickly.

My only concern is that there be a plan for families who leverage Jr. Cyclone memberships into a family gameday activity. The current Jr. Cyclone membership won't be able to squeeze into the NE and NW corners under the current "Ya'll come" admittance policy. But $50 for a assigned seat on top of the current $50 Jr. Cy cost would be totally fair, and would move lots of families like mine from the grass to the seats.

If the reality looks in any way similar to the renderings, Trice may officially become a place you don't want to come play- and that will be great fun.

Too Much and Not Enough

The Cyclones have a certain offensive rhythm when they are successful, efficient, and winning. I can't put my finger on exactly how many passes it involves, but there is a sweet spot in their offense.

More than 10 baskets without an assist usually leads to offensive disaster and a loss. Fortunately, that has been a rare occurrence.  If Hoiberg is guilty of anything (and this is a minor quibble) is that his squad sometimes goes a pass too far when sharing the ball, which leads to a turnover. Nice problem to have.

That was evident early in their home win against West Virginia. Several possessions ended in a turnover when the extra pass was attempted, often inside and down low. After a time out the extra pass went away and shots went up. Score. The assists were earned, but the team stopped trying too hard.

Again- it's a good problem to have, but its interesting to watch it ebb and flow during the course of a game.

Bring Back Mirrored Schedules

I'm old enough to remember when the Big 8 basketball schedules mirrored opponents for the men's and women's teams, and each team would be home opposite weeks.

Back before TV completely blew up scheduling rhythm,  games were usually played on Wednesday nights and Saturday afternoons. The men might be on the road for two games while the women were at home for that week, then they would switch. The convenient part was that each would play the same opponent on the same day- If the men were in Stillwater, you knew the women were hosting the Cowgirls.

That symmetry gave the season a nice bit of predictability.

"Travel partners" only added to this. In the Big 8 days, OU and Okie State went on the road together, as did KU and Mizzou, K State and Colorado, and Nebraska with Iowa State. If you had a home game week, you would play OU on Wednesday and then OSU on Saturday.  When you traveled south, you swung through Norman and Stillwater in the same trip. With 14 games spread across 8 weeks, you then had a built in night off during the week that you played your travel partner. Symmetry.

These schedules arose in the days of trains and buses, when a trip from Ames to Oklahoma was a project. Now that every road trip involves an airplane and is paid with a TV rights check economizing travel costs is less important. But two-game road trips with your travel partner conveyed, even subtly, that everyone was working together to make lives easier.

That ethic evaporated about the same time as basketball shorts stopped being short.

Bowl Season May Be Ugly

I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.

Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?

Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.

Adjustments

Half the fun of watching the Cyclones is studying the second half adjustments. At some point Fred finds a personnel and strategy combination that results in a 15-2 run over 3 minutes that wins the game.

This has to be a maddening group to game plan against, and double tough to adjust to as the game goes along. So much versatility.

Finishing Better Than They Start

At some point this Slow Start/Big Finish routine is going to bite our Cyclones on the butt, but for now it is quite the fun ride.

To watch the Hawkeyes lose is a most Cyclone way was fantastic. The second half is classic.

Keys

While coming back from down 18 to win in OT is impressive, not getting behind will be more important long-term.

Role Change 2

Perhaps the dumpster fire that was the ISU offense is going to change- CPR canned the OC and running backs coach.

Its good to see that lousy work isn't tolerated, and that changes will be made when they need to be.

Bring in a few Jucos to fill holes, get everyone on the same page, and go win some games.

Role Change 1

It was fun to watch ISU deliver some disappointment rather be on the receiving end.

Given how lousy the season was as a whole, the ending was as good as we could have hoped for.

Which moves us to the next post-

Beatdown

The 34-0 shutout of KU was cathartic for everyone involved. It was a nice reward for those who put on enough layers to spend 3 hours in 5 degree weather

It was an important win for two reasons: it gave the program a bit of momentum headed into the WV finale, and it took all of the wind from KU's sails after breaking their losing streak last week. Climbing the standings is a long-term zero-sum game. To climb the standings, you need to consistently beat everyone below you. KU is a team ISU needs to keep a rung below to have long term progress.

WVU appears to be in football trouble, so the best thing to do would be to hand them an anchor to the bottom of the standings.

Numbers

While it's fun to have basketball matter, I didn't realize how irrelevant our Cyclones have been on th national stage: the current #21 ranking is their highest in 12 years.

That covers four coaches.

The current play of the team gives me some confidence that this won't be another high water mark for the decade. Fred's teams usually struggle in November and December as the new faces find their role- that doesn't appear an issue so far.

BTW- the Detroit press blames Michigan's loss in Ames not on solid Cyclone play down the stretch but on youth and not having a leader yet.

Momentum

Looks like ISU is trying to revert to their historic norm.

Given the injuries and youth- the number of Freshmen who are playing is terrifying- Cyclone fans are willing to punt on this year. But the program is losing momentum with every blowout.

I imagine a few coaches are going to lose their jobs, but a angry mob needs to see that changes are being made. The offense is arguably the worst among the power conferences. That can't stand.

If the NCAA really cared about competitive balance, every school would get 3 weeks of practice at the end of the year, bowl game or not. But the NCAA has a financial incentive in keeping the traditional football powers in power, so teams that need the extra practice don't get it.

Context

In the previous 17 Big XII seasons, Iowa State football has finished in the top half of scoring exactly twice: 4th in 2005, 6th in 2000.

That explains only having 37 conference wins across 17 seasons.

Until this club can score regularly, they will struggle. If I knew what would solve it, I wouldn't be a blogger.

Data

I admire anyone who has the time and skill set to work the data like this.

A Cyclone fan with that time and skill set is a double bonus.

Cy-Hawk Trend

A friend who is smarter than me pointed out this interesting trend:

Kirk Ferentz is 2-5 in Ames.

His teams that won in Ames finished the year with 10 and 11 wins.

The teams that lost in Ames finished their years with 7, 7, 7, 6 and 1 win.

To look at it the other way, the ISU teams that have beaten Iowa in Ames have finished with 6, 3, 7, 7 and 4 wins. That trend is less definitive.

Since few see this year's Hawkeye club winning 8 or 9 more games, Iowa State should probably win.

Or rather, Iowa should probably find a way to lose.

Now We Know

The loss to UNI only cemented Iowa State's title as Program Hardest On Its Own Fans.

During the game I started joking with the Cyclone fan net to me which painful loss from the past was the most painful- and we had a damn long list to choose from. UNI '13 is definitely on it. Delivered at a moment when your fan base was ready to go nuts, it is the worst loss of the Rhodes era. Considering how badly they played in Memphis, its been a while since Cyclone Football has been worth cheering for.

So our Cyclones are a work in progress. At least we will have no illusions about our underdog status the rest of the way.

Patience

UNI should have won in Madison last fall, and the Badgers went on to the Rose Bowl. The Panthers could have won in Iowa City had they gotten a few breaks.

I'm going to assume this game won't be won until the fourth quarter. The heat is going to require lots of rotation of the second team, which should be an advantage for the Cyclones. UNI's first 22 can play, but I hope there is a drop off when comparing ISU's second units to UNI's. If there isn't, we might as well lose since its going to be a long fall anyway. Pull that Band-Aid off early and quickly.

So don't panic if it's tied at 14 at the half. It will be a war of attrition.

Punching Above Their Weight

The DM Register did a good job figuring out the athletic and football budgets for several conferences. Those are hard numbers to parse out.

Iowa State again has the smallest athletic budget in the Big 12, yet is fourth or fifth best in performance.  Nice job all around. That kind of result is all we can ask for.

My only quibble is the "Cash Spent per football win" formula only focused on one year being too short. One good or bad year skews the results too much. I would prefer a 3 or 5 year horizon to get a clearer view of things.

The big surprise? Iowa has the fourth biggest budget in the Big 10, yet is last in the league for performance the last two years. Ouch.

Long Fall

If you follow the links for Iowa and Iowa State, you will find that at the moment both teams combine to be favored in exactly one conference game, Kansas over ISU in Ames.

Ouch.

We Clonies are used to the perpetual underdog role. That is a new experience for fans in Iowa City. Another 2-6 or worse year- I hear talk of 0-8 being a real possibility- and things will get real ugly for Coach-For-Life Kirk.

The goal for the '13 Cyclones: Continue the forward momentum, because there isn't much in Iowa City.

The Cyclone Fan's White Whale

The South Endzone Project rears its head again.

I understand that lots of Cyclone fans feel that as long as Trice a sort-of-open south end zone it will have a "second tier" look to it. But right now Iowa State is a second tier football program! Playing not-quite-.500-football doesn't justify a $50 million dollar upgrade.

But let's play what if from a business viewpoint: $50 million would replace 5000 current end zone  and hillside seats and add, best case, 10,000 new seats. Dream scenario, $50 per seat for 6 games equals $4.5 Million per season, giving you a payoff of roughly 12 years. But that's best case scenario.

As it stands now, end zone seats go for ~$30 on a season ticket. Hillsides are ~$20. Do you think all those fans are going to suddenly jump to $50 for a high end zone seat? Nope. They will have to be heavily discounted, probably in that $20-$30 range. Half the revenue means double the payback period. 25 years on a project? No. Way. It just doesn't pencil out.

Add in that the number of visitor tickets has dropped dramatically with Nebraska and Mizzou out of the league (not that Mizzou fans travel, but they could have), and the project gets even harder to pull off.  I know, luxury suites could be added to drive some revenue, but how much can you charge a high-roller for a lousy view? The article is right- unless someone donates $10+ million for the project, the South Bowl will remain a pipe dream.

Not that it wouldn't be cool and help our Cyclones look First Tier- but they have to win a lot of games before that will become a reality.

The Out Iowa City Has Always Wanted

Looks like SUI can finally drop  Ames Community College off of its schedule.

They've been looking for an excuse since '98. Now they have one. It was fun while it lasted.

Forecast: Fugly

Check out the quote in this article:

“We have had games where we’ve held teams to 40, 50 points,” Irish forward Pat Connaughton said. “I think that’s what we want to do in order to come out with this win.”

In other words, ND would prefer to the final score look like a halftime total for a typical ISU game.

That's everything wrong with college basketball.

I expect the game to be painful to watch. Lots of fouls, ND mugging ISU at every opportunity, and as a result, clean open looks will be hard to find. It's tough to get open when the defender is holding your arm.

The good news is that if ISU can get a ~10 point lead, ND will have to do things they don't like. Advantage: ISU. Score early, score often. First team to 60 probably wins.

Best and Worst

Iowa State's win in Morgantown had the two extremes of Cyclone basketball. The first half was brilliant- free flow on offense, solid defense, a 44-20 halftime lead. But the second half had a 16 minute stretch that was horrid- 14 turnovers, bad rushed shots, and giving up 54 (!) points.

But the Cyclones made enough shots down the stretch to pull out the win, and finish 3-6 on the road. Not great but respectable.

Watching that game confirms that in the B12 and NCAA tourneys ISU can beat anyone- and can lose to anyone, too. Fasten your seat belts.

Ticket: Punched Take II

Now they are really in. A win in Morgantown and a few in KC will go a long way towards improving on a 12 seed.  The Cyclones found themselves in the same situation last year- win in KC and avoid the dreaded 8/9 game. They failed. Learn from the past.

The win over Okie State was exhibit A of how much better the Cyclones do when they simply hustle and play with energy. The game got tight when it turned into Afternoon At The Y midway through the second half. Quick shots, lazy D, the whole bit.

The examples of success and failure are pretty stark.

Ticket: Punched

Solid road win? Check.

5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.

Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.

With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.

16 of 20

In Iowa State's three most crushing road losses, the opponent (Kansas, Okie State, Texas) scored on 16 of their 20 possessions in the last 3 minutes of regulation.  ISU held the lead at that 3 minute mark of each of those games. Full details at the Ames Trib.

One more stop in each game and ISU probably gets the win.

The Cyclones do a nice job of getting ahead with their offense, and don't need to turn into a knock 'em sock 'em, grind it out of defensive team that then struggles to score 50 each night. But a few key stops will go a long way.

Their trip to Waco is a good place to start. the Bears came from way behind to almost beat OU at home. They aren't dead until the buzzer, boys.

Playoff Mode

It's an old cliche, but the Cyclones may as well get into a playoff mindset right now. Losses can be fatal to their NCAA hopes.

Six games remain- all are winnable, and all are also losable. But going 4-2 or 5-1 will get them a solid seed in both Kansas City and the NCAAs. But that kind of finish means getting over their road funk in a hurry. They have been on the cusp of several road wins, but can't make the stop they need. At some point the averages will even out and you will get the break you need. Just hurry.

Who you are, who you want to be

With a few games to go there are two groups of teams in the Big 12: five at the top who are pretty good, and five at the bottom just trying to keep up.

It's discouraging to not play very well against OU and Texas, but those teams will blow o it Iowa State when they set their minds to it. Given the financial gulf between The Big Boys and ISU, that should be expected.

But the five schools in the bottom half of this years league are financial peers of the Cyclones, and they are who ISU is really competing against year in and year out. This year, the Cyclones could finish at the top of the bottom half. They already have wins against Baylor and TCU with Kansas and West Virginia on deck. Wins against both not only earns a decent bowl trip, it also solidifies their place at the front of the Small Money league within the Big 12.

But you have to win or you just continue being viewed as a bottom feeder.

Earning It

Even the new guy in the league doesn't respect the Cyclones:

TCU violated one of the primary rules of being a "good" Big 12 team -- do not lose at home against Iowa State. Ever.

Welcome to the big time. If you don't show up to play the Chump, you become the Chump. Chump.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/10/07/4317147/loss-to-iowa-state-proves-tcu.html#storylink=cpy

Trends

As if showing your fan base that Cyclone Football is trending in the right direction to sell more tickets, the implosion in Iowa City presents a big opportunity to position themselves as The Big Show in the state. Its a lot easier to tag one program as Troubled or Loser when there is a big difference between the two. Contrast helps.

You won't win every in-state or head-to-head recruiting battle with SUI, but winning one or two in each class adds up over time. Hayden understood the importance of dominating ISU. It's time to turnt he tables.

Rivals

Attitudes like this are why Iowa State fans relish beating Iowa so much.

There may never be an ISU win over Iowa that isn't considered an upset, because Iowa is the Best Football Program Without A National Title (in their minds). 

Numbers Game

An excellent football article in the New York Times of all places. Looking ahead at what Penn State faces, Iowa State's plight in the 80's was brought forth as an example of what happens when your numbers get cut.

I was a student in Ames during the Walden years, and I didn't realize at the time how big the numbers gap was between ISU and, well, everyone else.  It doesn't bode well for PSU in the near term.

But those ISU teams hung around better than they should have, and scratched together a 6-5 season in 1990. But being down 20 or 30 players makes the 1990 win in Norman and Marv Seiler's win over Nebraska even more remarkable. Plucky doesn't begin to describe those teams.

Penn State Fan, A Peek Into Your New World

Hello Penn State fan. Let me give you a brief tour of your new world as a fan.

Hopefully you are entering the Acceptance phase of the news that your football program has been put in an induced coma. That will make things easier. It's going to be a struggle for a while. You are going to have to reset your view of the world for a few years until the numbers come back to even and you get some momentum back.

The good news- you have massive infrastructure. Stadiums that hold 100K+ are pretty rare. That's a nice revenue-generating asset to have in your pocket. You have a large fan base that is willing to buy tickets. When the time is right for the bandwagon to get crowded again, you will be flush with cash.

You already know most of the bad. It will be a tough sell to get four and five star recruits to come in for awhile. You will have to do more with less. Start by bringing in tough kids who want to play with a chip on their shoulders, for whom knocking off an Ohio State or Michigan once in a while will be enough of a reward. That's the kind of thing you will need to sell.

Little secret- those kind of players are fun to root for. Seeing kids outwork and outhustle the five-star recruits is a hoot. When they beat a team with a talent advantage, you will celebrate like you've never celebrated before. Because for a while it will be different.

You will now be happy after every single win, no matter how lowly the opponent. It will be a long time before you are relieved you didn't lose. Admit it- you felt that way at least four times a season. "Good thing we didn't lose to THAT team!"

Here's another bit of good news- you are about to find out who the real fans are, and who were going to games for the good time. The next few years will be the attendance nadir for Penn State, but you can look around and see who is in it for better or worse.

This might be hard, but reset yourself mentally. Prepare to go 0-12 this year. If you end up 4-8 with some close losses, the season will feel like a success. That is your new reality. Someday you will be able to say "I was a fan in '12 when nobody else would be."

Change

The most striking thing about this poll? Iowa isn't on it.

It's a real change that the press doesn't consider the GoBlas one of the five best team Iowa State will play this year. That can't sit well in IC.

Or the press doesn't think ISU can win in Kinnick. I can't say I blame them.

Tough Out

As long as Iowa State has the smallest athletic budget in the league, our expectations, especially in football, have to be tempered. Anything above 4 wins has to be considered a success.

Personally, I'm happy if the Cyclones are viewed by the rest of the league as that team they will probably beat, but it will be a damn struggle, especially in Ames.

I think Dave Uebben has a "Punches above their weight" view that is about right.

How Does Iowa State WIn?

The lead of the Pre-Snap Read  preview encapsulates the football world's view of Iowa State: How do they win? The damning number is this: Texas signed more 4-star recruits this winter than Iowa State has in 10 years. Combined.

It's numbers like that that pop in my head when more enthusiastic Cyclone fans start talking consistent winning and better bowl games. The raw numbers make it very, very hard.

The raw numbers also make the upset wins all the more special.

Promise

New promise from this site- from now on I only link to B12 football projections that have Iowa State somewhere other than last or next-to-last.

No matter how well the Cyclones do in football, it's always assumed to be a fluke.