Progress Isn't Linear

The hangover from pre-season Kool-Aid can be harsh when your team doesn't live up to pre-season expectations.

Winning close games is more random than anyone wants to admit.

The hard part is being good enough to give yourself a chance against the teams with better talent. By that metric, mission accomplished.

A disappointing 7-5 year is still more fun than any 3-9 year.

Going For It

For being a conservative guy wanting to play a conservative style, we are watching Coach Campbell grow more aggressive when the moment calls for it. The aggressiveness is calculated, playing the percentages, rather than reckless, and it may pay dividends down the line. As opposing coaches learn that Iowa State is going to press for extra, they will take risks to counter, to add to the lead, and hopefully make mistakes that can be swung in the Cyclones favor.

It is an attitude the football program hasn't had in my memory. It is a pleasant change.

Three winnable games left on the slate, three games that will determine how fans view the season as a whole.

Seize the moment, and go for it.

The Run Game

Twitter tells us that Saturday's game in Morgantown was one of Brock Purdy's worst (19-30-1, 1 TD, 6 rushes for -15, 3 sacks) so to see the running game emerge to fill the gap was encouraging. 34 carries for 167 yards was a solid 4.9 YPC, kept the chains moving and got into the end zone when the opportunity arrived. More of that, please.

The second-half stifling of the West Virginia offense was a thing of beauty, backup QB or not. The drive chart for WV in the back half: punt, punt, punt, punt, INT, Fumble. 21 plays for 44 yards. That'll do boys, that'll do.

Our Cyclones can win a lot of football games that way. Forward.

Stunner

Given the offensive struggles the Cyclones had against the two solid defenses they played earlier in the year (Iowa and Baylor), to witness the offensive competency that broke out against TCU was stunning. Six touchdowns on nine possessions in TCU territory is getting it done, and couldn't have come at a better time with more winnable games this month.

The offensive performance was even more surprising after how disruptive the TCU defense had been for ISU recently. The last six games- five losses for ISU- have all been tough sledding for the offense, and one has to go back to the 2012 win in Fort Worth to find another day where the offense did what it wanted against the Horned Frogs.

While having your QB be your leading rusher isn't a good long-term plan, it appears that running threat is what opens up the offense as a whole. So be it.

Onward to Morgantown.

.500ish

Cyclone football is 7-8 in the last 2.25 seasons in games that ended with a margin of 7 points or less. They win their share of the close ones.

Clearly this offense is going to struggle against decent defenses. When the other team can make you one dimensional, your margin for error goes way down.

ISU had plenty of opportunities to score what would have been the winning points- but they found a way to screw up, which cost them in the end. Slap on the back for taking the lead after a furious comeback. But the offense only got three TDs on eight trips into Baylor territory. That ain't gonna cut it.

The Cyclones could be the underdog in seven of the last 8. Buckle up.

Slumpbuster

Scoring on 11 consecutive possessions counts as a good day.

A step down in competition helped the offense find its stride, and getting the ball in the hands of a mismatch led to several long plays and scores.

The first five B12 games are, on paper, winnable. Hopefully Purdy and crew can keep the scoring momentum going.

On defense, some were grumbling at the yards given up to ULM, be we will not join them. So many snaps were taken by the seconds and thirds that a drop in execution is to be expected. Don't panic, it was actually good news from an experience standpoint.

We've learned a lot in the first three games, but now we will see if the knowledge can be leveraged.

Yips

The loss to the Goblas was the result of a bad habit the Cyclone offense has developed: the yips once they cross the 50.

Against Wazzou: 8 trips across the 50, 3 TDs.
Against UNI: 8 trips (in regulation): 1 TD
Against SUI: 8 trips: 2 TDs, both on long passes.

Sense a trend? Fix the yips and this team will be a problem in the B12.

But offensive yips will limit this team to 5 or 6 wins rather than 9 or 10.

Bullet. Dodged.

Few will recall the defense holding UNI to 33 rushing yards, one red-zone trip and 6 points in regulation.

All will remember the bumbling, stumbling offensive performance. One step forward, one step sideways, one shot in the foot. Solid on first and second down, incompetent on third or fourth. Dynamic between the 20's, Keystone Cops in the red zone. Four great plays in Tempo force a UNI time out, so never run Tempo the rest of the game.

We understand that the first game against a (supposedly) overmatched opponent is an opportunity to get a bunch of things on tape, and run players, formations and plays in new combinations. But at some point in the second half you have to focus on the whole point of the afternoon: Win the dang game.

Despite the offenses best attempts, Iowa State did win the game, almost on accident. They all count the same, even if the Russian judge would have hated it.

Two weeks until the Goblas arrive in the 515, and so much on offense to repair. Even though betting is now legal in Iowa, there is no way you should touch this one. Still too much in the unknown.

Spin It Up

With the Cyclone Hype Train at historic levels, actual football can't arrive soon enough. Given how 2018 played out, you can't blame Cyclone fans from drinking some of the Kool-Aid.

Tell the CSJ staff how well the offensive line will run block and we will tell you which side of 8 wins the team ends up with. Run the ball poorly and it will be a struggle against the better half of the schedule. Run the ball well and all kinds of possibilities open up.

Since sports gambling will be legal in Iowa next week, our nickel is on an 8-4 finish. Solid play on both sides of the ball, but Purdy and gang won't be able to manufacture multiple miracle finishes like they needed so often last year. (Tech, KSU, Drake) You can only tap that well so many times.

As the league goes, OU and Texas are on their own tier. Iowa State, Okie State, TCU and Baylor are the next tier. WVU, K State and Tech will need time to install all the new stuff. KU is 10th until further notice.

Tiers 2 and 3 will be a random draw of wins and losses. ISU could finish 3rd through 6th and we won't be surprised. It will be that kind of year.

As always, enjoy the ride. You never know when it will end.

Patience

The second half of the football season and Prohm's track record with teams improving as the season rolls along should remind everyone that patience is rewarded in Ames.

Long term, both teams are trending in the right direction. Enjoy the right despite the bumps.

Petty

It is appropriate that Iowa State now plays Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down" at the 3rd quarter break, as it describes the attitude of the football program under Coach Campbell.

Given Iowa State's lack of both football budget and tradition, the CSJ staff has low expectations for Cyclone Football. All we ask is to get yourself within one score in the 4th, and find a way to win half of those games. So far this season they are 2-2 in those games, and the second half has been the better half for this team.

Don't back down.

Don't Blink

This football team has had plenty of moments to fold, to collapse, to blink.

The last three games, they have not.

On physical ability, this team scores above average for Iowa State football.

Schematically they have the right mix of matching players abilities to the jobs that needs doing.

But it's the mental stability of this group has been most remarkable. Press on in the face of adversity. Run your stuff. Find a way.

I don't recall an Iowa State football team this patient with itself. It's putting Cyclone fan in unknown territory, walking a new road. This may not be the fool's errand a few other season have been.

Enjoy the ride. We've waited a while.

Business

That's what a serious, focused football program should do.

A wet track and bad opponent deserved a vanilla offensive plan, and the offense looked it. But KU bumbled their way into the least impressive blowout you will ever see. The stats don't describe how much of a mismatch the game was.

The next four games- Tech, TCU, WVU, Okie State- are a serious upgrade in quality, and provide four opportunities to break through to the middle of the conference standings.

Being able to say maybe is a great change of pace.

Tradition

A typical Cyclone football team of the past would follow an epic win with an inexplicable loss.

The 1990 team followed their win in Norman with a blowout loss at home to Nebraska and a horrid loss on the road to Kansas State. The next year KSU went 7-4 and went to a bowl game, so that win was an early sign of progress for Snyder.

The great 2005 team allowed Baylor to break a 37 game B12 road losing streak in Ames.

I expect a long slog on a wet track against KU. Here's hoping we aren't too grumpy at the end.

Worst/Best

If the Oklahoma press is calling it "The worst loss in Sooner history", then it has to be the best win in Iowa State history.

Given the premise before kickoff, agreed.

Here's hoping it's not an outlier.

Gap Closed

It was nice to push The Team From Out East to their limit for a change. The talent gap has closed, and the knowledge of what the plan is has clearly improved from 12 games ago.

But the Cyclones still found a way to lose a game they should have won.

Horseshoes and hand grenades is ISU's strength under Campbell. At some point they have to push through.

But it's more fun to be standing at the corner than looking for a corner ahead.

Somehow They Find Six

Clearly, the Cyclone's Bowl Cake will be baked in September.

Find 3 wins out of the first 4 and they are in good shape. Several winnable games out there against teams with question marks.

Football trended up from week 3 of 2016, and 2017 has plenty of yardsticks to measure if the trend is still positive.

There will be an upset along the way, and at least two "should have won that" losses. It's The Cyclone Way. But six wins will be found, and a bowl trip to perk up the holidays.

Constants

Sometimes you win (SJS, KU, Tech)

Sometimes you lose (UNI, Baylor, Okie State, KSU)

Sometime you just get beat (SUI, TCU, OU, WVU)

Get better winning the close ones and the Cyclones will be on to something.

That works

Trucking a team by 56 in record fashion, a team that beat you by 30+ the year before?

Maybe there is something to The Process people keep talking about.

Corner turned?

Punching Above Their Weight

Our Cyclones are becoming The-Team-You-Don't-Want-To-Play, but their mistakes are keeping them from grabbing the wins they are close to earning.

ISU: 4 dropped passes, all would have been first downs
OU: 0 drops

ISU: At least 4 wild overthrows of open receivers, each would have been a first down or TD
OU: 0 overthrows

ISU: 3 3-and-outs
OU: 1 3-and-out

Those little differences were what won it for OU. Better talent, fewer mistakes.