The Long View

Basketball has been over nearly a month, and I'm still undecided on how to view the season.

Naz's bum hips, obviously cost the team a few games, maybe a shot at the conference title, a better seed in the NCAA's, and a run at the big banner. So it goes. You need a lot of luck with your health to win the big prizes.

Prohm was wise to let the team fail a bit doing things the old way before laying down the lay that his way was the only way. It's unfortunate that he couldn't make the old-way-failure occur sooner.

 For all of Fred's weaknesses as a coach, mostly defensively, he is clearly a master psychologist. We now have numerous examples of players who managed well under his supervision, but were head cases outside of it.

Hopefully sacrifices that were made in the interest of long term health of the program will pay off.

In a league that is this consistently good, to be a program in the top half of the league each year is to be celebrated. The Niang years may also be viewed as a period of just missing out, not getting the break they needed.

Post Fred, On to Prohm

During the crazy heights of the Eustachy era, LE would often start the post-game chat with Pete Taylor with some version of "celebrate night like this, because you never know when they will end".

Hiring Fred was a giant risk, but one that came up paid out far more than it didn't. Uncountable fun games in a short period, and a lifetime of "what-ifs".

Better to have had the time with him than not. Hopefully Prohm has similar or greater success, but perhaps he won't. Winning at this level is a difficult and volatile cocktail of talent, skill and luck. If it was easy to mix everyone would be doing it.

Embrace the good times, you never know when they will end.

Post Mortem

The eventual winner of the NCAA Tournament came from Iowa State's bracket. The team has to wonder what was left on the table. That makes two missed opportunities for a Final Four run in two years.

Hopefully those facts fuel their off season work and next season's play. Answer the bell every time. Focus. Hustle.

One comforting tidbit from tonight: This year's champion lost in the first round of last years tournament as a 3 seed.

Now Things Get Interesting

Down three ranked teams in a row, the last two on the road?

You intrigue me Cyclones, you really do.  Running the table now looks like more of a possibility than it did two weeks ago.

Too bad KU doesn't have many losable games left.

Improvement, but-

It was fun watching the Cyclones beat a ranked team by 20. The defense was solid start to finish, and the offense wasn't too rattled by WVU's constant pressure.

Often defense is just effort, like closing out on 3 point shooters. But I'm taking Saturday's success with a handful of salt, considering that the half-court is not where the Mountaineers get their work done.

Okie State? Texas? Half court teams. Slow them on the road and I will consider myself a believer.

Too Much and Not Enough

The Cyclones have a certain offensive rhythm when they are successful, efficient, and winning. I can't put my finger on exactly how many passes it involves, but there is a sweet spot in their offense.

More than 10 baskets without an assist usually leads to offensive disaster and a loss. Fortunately, that has been a rare occurrence.  If Hoiberg is guilty of anything (and this is a minor quibble) is that his squad sometimes goes a pass too far when sharing the ball, which leads to a turnover. Nice problem to have.

That was evident early in their home win against West Virginia. Several possessions ended in a turnover when the extra pass was attempted, often inside and down low. After a time out the extra pass went away and shots went up. Score. The assists were earned, but the team stopped trying too hard.

Again- it's a good problem to have, but its interesting to watch it ebb and flow during the course of a game.

Adjustments

Half the fun of watching the Cyclones is studying the second half adjustments. At some point Fred finds a personnel and strategy combination that results in a 15-2 run over 3 minutes that wins the game.

This has to be a maddening group to game plan against, and double tough to adjust to as the game goes along. So much versatility.

Finishing Better Than They Start

At some point this Slow Start/Big Finish routine is going to bite our Cyclones on the butt, but for now it is quite the fun ride.

To watch the Hawkeyes lose is a most Cyclone way was fantastic. The second half is classic.

Keys

While coming back from down 18 to win in OT is impressive, not getting behind will be more important long-term.

Numbers

While it's fun to have basketball matter, I didn't realize how irrelevant our Cyclones have been on th national stage: the current #21 ranking is their highest in 12 years.

That covers four coaches.

The current play of the team gives me some confidence that this won't be another high water mark for the decade. Fred's teams usually struggle in November and December as the new faces find their role- that doesn't appear an issue so far.

BTW- the Detroit press blames Michigan's loss in Ames not on solid Cyclone play down the stretch but on youth and not having a leader yet.

Forecast: Fugly

Check out the quote in this article:

“We have had games where we’ve held teams to 40, 50 points,” Irish forward Pat Connaughton said. “I think that’s what we want to do in order to come out with this win.”

In other words, ND would prefer to the final score look like a halftime total for a typical ISU game.

That's everything wrong with college basketball.

I expect the game to be painful to watch. Lots of fouls, ND mugging ISU at every opportunity, and as a result, clean open looks will be hard to find. It's tough to get open when the defender is holding your arm.

The good news is that if ISU can get a ~10 point lead, ND will have to do things they don't like. Advantage: ISU. Score early, score often. First team to 60 probably wins.

Ticket: Punched Take II

Now they are really in. A win in Morgantown and a few in KC will go a long way towards improving on a 12 seed.  The Cyclones found themselves in the same situation last year- win in KC and avoid the dreaded 8/9 game. They failed. Learn from the past.

The win over Okie State was exhibit A of how much better the Cyclones do when they simply hustle and play with energy. The game got tight when it turned into Afternoon At The Y midway through the second half. Quick shots, lazy D, the whole bit.

The examples of success and failure are pretty stark.

Ticket: Punched

Solid road win? Check.

5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.

Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.

With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.

16 of 20

In Iowa State's three most crushing road losses, the opponent (Kansas, Okie State, Texas) scored on 16 of their 20 possessions in the last 3 minutes of regulation.  ISU held the lead at that 3 minute mark of each of those games. Full details at the Ames Trib.

One more stop in each game and ISU probably gets the win.

The Cyclones do a nice job of getting ahead with their offense, and don't need to turn into a knock 'em sock 'em, grind it out of defensive team that then struggles to score 50 each night. But a few key stops will go a long way.

Their trip to Waco is a good place to start. the Bears came from way behind to almost beat OU at home. They aren't dead until the buzzer, boys.

Thinking

If you choose to play defense like it's a street fight, you shouldn't complain when the other team shoots lots of free throws.

Experiments

Clearly, the Fred Experiment isn't working out. There's a reason you don't bring in a cast of refugees from other teams and make a team. The Land of Misfit Toys doesn't work well together.

But lacking a clear alternative, and without the cash for a buyout, we'll soldier on.

The above is sarcasm folks. Fred's great- the good times are back.

Upside

After thumping two inferior teams- on the road- it's clear Fred's boys are finding a rhythm. They are challenging the great teams and taking care of business when they need too.

While they are susceptible to taking teams lightly (cough- Okie State- cough) when focused and on task they run the gameplan, find the open man, and win. I think this team can be as good as it wants to be.

While two games with Baylor and one each with KU and Mizzou remain- This could be fun.

Expectations

This isn't the way to keep expectations at a reasonable level.

Win-Win

I love to see Fred make scheduling moves like this.

A quality home-home each year, along with the SUI/UNI/Drake trifecta, helps build a quality noncon for the RPI. It's also nice to have a hint of how good the team is before league play starts.

I think ISU gets more out of this than Michigan. Recruiting exposure in Michigan helps ISU more than Iowa exposure helps UM. As a bonus, each team will view the games as winnable, which is nice.

Perhaps Fred can build a habit of road scheduling for seniors on the team like Duke does. So while Will Clyburn gets to play in front of his Detroit friends, and Korie and Chris get a return to the state of Michigan, we still need a game in Wisconsin for Scottie (Korie gets to play the hometown card on that one, too) and a trip to Georgia for Chris Allen. A home-home with Georgia tech would suit me.

Peter

Ramping Up

I agree with both Fred's strategy and the analysis of it: ISU hoops needs to get good fast to attract the top level talent to stay good. It's a chicken/egg situation, but one with precedent.

Back in the 90's both Tim and Larry used JUCOs to fill holes and help raise and maintain performance, which brought in solid HS talent. If you aren't winning, recruiting becomes a tougher sell.

This time next year we'll know if the Refugee Strategy has paid off.

Peter