The Horse Latitudes

Cyclone Football finds itself stuck in windless territory. Enough talent and skill to compete, not enough talent and skill and mental capacity to win. Danny Mac spent a decade in this space, with only a few wins to show for it. CPR had dozens of close calls, but never broke through for an extended period.

Now it's Campbell's turn to try and round the corner and get to more interesting territory.

Simple Math

Winning football games at Iowa State is a simple, two step process:

A. Hang around games until the 4th;

B. Win games in the 4th.

Rhoads was 10-6 his first three years in 10-point-or-less-games, but only 3-13 his last four years.

The constant underdog has to stay above .500 in the close games to survive.

Seven wins across his last four seasons would not have set the world on fire, but it would have meant a bowl trip and keeping one's job.

Finding Yet Another Way To Lose

This week: Fumble on three of your last four possessions, including with 10 seconds left on the opponent's 30!

While this isn't the biggest margin given up by ISU ('92 at home to Kansas, up 45-14, lost 50-47) this was the most painfull, since that KU team finished 8-4. K-State probably ends 5-7.

In the big picture, the Cyclones have been blowing second half leads for 35 years under 6 different coaches- why would changing staffs result in wins?

Our Lady Of Perpetual Disappointment

A program like Iowa State can't consistently give up 4th quarter leads if it's going to get anywhere.

The loss to Okie State was the third game just this year they probably should have won.

Five first downs in the second half isn't going to do it. Iowa and Toledo were similar stories.

Same some, different verse, different decade.

Game On

This isn't original analysis, but we are going to know everything we will need to know about Cyclone Football in the first two weeks.

I can't help but wonder how many Cyclone fans are privately hoping for losses to force a change in football leadership. 10%? 20%?

If the season starts 2-3 rather than 4-1, the debate will shift from If to Who.

Red Zone

The Cyclones were better on offense against Toledo, and all but two of their possessions went for multiple first downs and chances to score. But it was in the red zone the Cyclones almost lost the game. Had the three first half field goals been touchdowns, ISU probably leads at the half and wins going away. Instead, we all had to hold our breath during an onside kick try.

The play of the game may have been turned by Nigel Tribune. On a 50 yard run by Toledo, Tribune ran the running back down for a tackle at the ISU 25. The Rockets had to run 8 plays over three minutes to get the TD to draw within 7. Had he Tribune let the back go for the score, the offense would have needed to burn four minutes off the clock, a tough trick when you are only averaging a short 3 yards per carry. It would have been antacid time had things played out that way.

A win is a win is a win. This may be a good time to play Texas.

Re-Run

I've been watching Cyclone football for about 40 years now, and I've seen what transpired today about 75 times in that span. Stop me if you have heard this before:

- Spunky undermanned Cyclones surprise everyone by playing over their heads.
- A couple of crazy plays results in an Iowa State lead
- Spunky Cyclones have chances to put the game away, don't
- Opponent says "Thanks, we'll take the win"


And people wonder why Cyclone fans are a cynical, paranoid bunch?

When you have the smallest budget in the league you have to keep your expectations modest. Being a tough out is your goal. But you have to take advantage of a situation when you can, otherwise your opponents will just wait for you to fall apart.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;

-and so we being another football season in Ames, staring down another insanely hard schedule. Literally no gimmes when you include a favorite to win the Big 101112 West/Legends Division, a favorite to win the MAC and the three-time defending FCS champ. Whew.

Several have made the argument that ISU will go 3-9 or worse, Rhodes should be canned, etc. etc. etc. In other words, another typical summer expectation synopsis for the Cyclones. If the OL is riddled with injuries like 2013, 0-12 is in play. Magino can only do so much when the QB is running for his life, getting injured, and then is unable to run for his life due to injury.

My short answer: If the OL stays healthy and the offense can average 28+ per game, they find a way to get to 6-6 and a bowl invite. (It's all any of us want, really.)

But if the OL has to start using backups for extended snaps, look out below.

Role Change 2

Perhaps the dumpster fire that was the ISU offense is going to change- CPR canned the OC and running backs coach.

Its good to see that lousy work isn't tolerated, and that changes will be made when they need to be.

Bring in a few Jucos to fill holes, get everyone on the same page, and go win some games.

Who you are, who you want to be

With a few games to go there are two groups of teams in the Big 12: five at the top who are pretty good, and five at the bottom just trying to keep up.

It's discouraging to not play very well against OU and Texas, but those teams will blow o it Iowa State when they set their minds to it. Given the financial gulf between The Big Boys and ISU, that should be expected.

But the five schools in the bottom half of this years league are financial peers of the Cyclones, and they are who ISU is really competing against year in and year out. This year, the Cyclones could finish at the top of the bottom half. They already have wins against Baylor and TCU with Kansas and West Virginia on deck. Wins against both not only earns a decent bowl trip, it also solidifies their place at the front of the Small Money league within the Big 12.

But you have to win or you just continue being viewed as a bottom feeder.

Smaller, Slower, Weaker

Iowa State is all of the above, and yet made a$m sweat a bit. It was the kind of effort that will keep fans coming back, especially when the weather is spectacular.

The five-games-without-drawing-a-holding-penalty-streak is just sick, yet a symptom of being smaller, slower, and weaker on the DL than everyone else. Other teams don't get flagged because they don't have to hold (much) to get the job done.

Unfortunately my eyes are not trained enough to tell if ISU is getting better over time, if CPR recruits are an upgrade over Danny Mac or Chiz recruits. I do know that the schedule is getting better, er, tougher.

Heck, I think this team could beat this year's Utah, Colorado and maybe Nebraska. So it goes. FWIW- ISU has lost to 4 of the Sagarin Top 30. Iowa is 0-1. That's a huge difference.

Keep grinding- hopefully the corner is nearby.

Deja Vu

This is exactly the situation where CPR has led ISU to gigantic upsets. In a way, beating A$M would be less surprising than beating Nebraska in '09- our starting quarterback will be suiting up.

Not saying it will happen, but the conditions are exactly the same as the Nebraska and Texas wins. This time we're at home.

Peter

Turning Point

I suspect CPR is pitching this week's game against Mizzou as a key moment in the season. Either Iowa State stops killing itself with bad penalties, turnovers and anemic offense, or they limp home with a 1-8 finish after a 3-0 start. Mizzou is in a similar spot. Two losses to ranked teams have them in last with ISU, and statistically they are twins- good at the same things, bad at the same things. This game looks a lot more winnable than it did in July, but the Cyclones are going to need their first complete game of the season to pull it off. That's a big maybe.

Bounceback

It seems CPR has spent this week building up everyone's spirits after the loss to Texa$. "We played with Texa$- it was the mistakes that killed us." A look at the stats shows good drives, with failures when things got close.

Next up is a Baylor squad that is more Arena League than Texa$ League. They score points in bunches, and give up points in bunches, too. Can ISU score in the Red Zone rather than miss field goals? Can the defense get enough stops to be close in the 4th?

Let's go with another 36-35 loss for Baylor. Stranger things have happened.

Hopin'

Here's hoping THE Ohio State University doesn't come sniffing around CPR now that they have another coach resign in disgrace.

One poaching every hundred years, thanks.

Peter

Ownership

Read this. Now.

It says everything I would hope for moving forward. We're in good hands.

Peter

Wonk

For the football wonks in the crowd, CPR gets into some of the nuts and bolts of how his team prepares.

Peter

Flip Flop and a Dead Horse

Ron Maly heaps praise on Paul Rhodes and the Cyclones, in an apparent turnaround from September when he compared Rhodes to Walden and Criner.

But nowhere do you read a "I've changed my mind about the guy" or "I was wrong".

Not surprising, coming from a guy who keeps beating up a coach he's asked exactly one question of in 15 years.

Peter

"It"

Keeler declares Rhodes restores "It" to Iowa State.

Peter

The New Sheriff

I have to agree with the blogosphere- whatever punishment the three players suspended for possession of pot receive will set the tone for the Rhodes regime.

Assuming this is a "amount for personal use" kind of crime, it's a 3 or 4 game suspension plus whatever the cops want for punishment. It reads that the players are doing what has been asked of them, so they get some leeway.

As anyone in authority will tell you, it's better to lay down the law right off the bat than to try to be Mr. Nice Guy up front and later try to toughen up. Anyone else on the team with some recreational whatever has either disposed of it, or is really, really stupid.

While the first offenders will be made examples of, the second offenders will really get the book thrown at them.

The one thing that strikes me as odd: a search warrant for "personal use" amounts seems a bit heavy handed. Hopefully for everyone the players are being rolled for the bigger fish up the food chain, just like a TV crime show.

But if this is an "intent to deliver" thing, all bets are off.

Peter