The Problem

 In three conference games, Iowa State is averaging 14.7 points. The 24 they scored against Baylor looks like an explosion in hindsight- they have only mustered 11 against Kansas and 9 against Kansas State.

Kansas has given up 42 and 38 in their other two B12 games. 

And yet- all three games were winnable with even slightly better execution- complete a pitch and catch on third down, hit the original hole rather than dancing around the backfield hoping to find a better one, etc. - and the team is 2-1 or 3-0 and all is right with the world.

The good news is there are lots of winnable games ahead on the schedule. But any win will require better performances on the offensive side of the ball or we have to quickly shift our attention to hoops like the Bad Old Days.

Offensive Crisis

Two games in a row where the defense (probably) does enough to win, yet the offense does far too little to win.

If you hold a team to negative yardage for a half of football, you should win. Full stop.

If you hold a team a full 2 yards-per-play and 26 points below their average you should win. Full stop.

If you run 43 plays on the opponents side of the field, call us crazy, but you probably should score more than 11 points.

There are multiple issues on the offensive side of the ball. Hopefully some of them get fixed soon, or we are staying home for the holidays. Considering that all seven remaining games are winnable, failing to find three more wins would be a waste.

Another Turning Point

The first turning point of the season was the trip to Iowa City. Fortunately, the Goblas weren't good enough to take advantage of all of Iowa State's mistakes, and the Cyclones got to bring home the ugly trophy.

Mistakes allowed Baylor to leave Ames with a win.

Given the balance of the B12 this year, a case can be made that every league game will be a turning point. But the trip to Lawrence will determine if our Cyclones will still have a shot at greatness, or will have to hustle to become bowl-eligible. 

Kansas comes in gaining 7.2 YPP (#7 nationally), while ISU is generating only 5 YPP (#50). Granted, ISU has faced two Top 10 defenses in their first four games, but that number is going to have to jump to win games in this league.

On defense the coin flips. ISU yields only 3.7 YPP, good for #7 (but that number is distorted by the terrible Iowa and Ohio offenses), while KU yields 6.3 YPP, #109 in the country, similar to the 6.6 that Ohio yields. 

The ISU defense is by far the best that KU has seen this year. Hopefully they can keep KU in the 20's and not the 40's. 

Which puts the onus on the offense to play a clean game, crank out first downs and score TDs in the Red Zone. If the offense can be consistent and score, this should be a win. 

If the offense makes the same kinds of mistakes the unit made against Iowa and Baylor- hang on to your butts.

Brace Yourself

We didn't realize it when CMC was hired, but a bargain had been struck, a bargain that requires a tax to be paid each year.

The benefit of the bargain? Competent football.

The tax? A loss to the Team Out East every September.

Almost every Cyclone fan would accept the trade in the long term, but the payment of The Tax grows more painful each fall.

It would be different if each loss came in the form of the 2016 beat-down- we would choose not to watch and mow the lawn instead. 

But no- the Cyclones have to outplay the Goblas each year, and then find a new ridiculous way to lose the same game.

It is fair that Iowa State fans might have a glimmer of hope given the results of each team's openers, but do not drink that drink so quickly- we all know how this will end. The exact verse will be different, but the song will remain the same.

Brace yourselves.

Steady as she goes

 While there are plenty of new faces in the two deeps, the CSJ staff remains cautiously optimistic that the improving depth in the roster will reveal a number of new stars for Cyclone fans.

IF- the defense can continue to be salty, holding teams below their season yardage and scoring averages, and- 

IF- the offensive line can give Dekkers enough time to throw downfield rather than running for his life, as Purdy often had to-

- we could have some fun this year.

But we are also big believers if trends. If your offensive line has been ordinary, assume it will continue to be ordinary. Thus, we see 7-5 this year.

Wins against SEMO and Ohio.

Losses against awa and Baylor, since Iowa State is kinda lousy in September.

Wins against Kansas and Kansas State.

Losses in Stillwater and against OU.

A win in Austin (trap game the week after they lose to OU, and their season basically ends)

Wins against West Virgina and Tech in Ames.

The patented we-played-like-crap-on-the-road-loss comes at TCU. 

Review

One team surprised all of college basketball and its own fan base by overachieving for most of the season. They pulled two upsets in The Tournament, and came very close to an Elite Eight appearance, a rare bird in Cyclone basketball.

Another team played high level basketball all season, and came within a game of a share of the B12 title. Their season also ended on the cusp of the Elite Eight, an ending most fans would have been happy with in October.

In retrospect, this was a much more entertaining winter than Cyclone fans expected. Next season could be on the same level and, with some breaks, even more interesting.

Enjoy the good seasons when they appear, as we never know when a drought will return.

Astounding

 Of the scenarios we thought could play out this weekend, the one that happened was the least likely. We were clearly wrong on almost every point of our last post. Happy to be wrong.

The men's defensive effort discombobulated both LSU and Wisconsin on offense. Wisky ended their game Sunday with more turnovers than made baskets. Just masterful. Ugly, but effective.

The difference between Friday and Sunday could not have been more stark. The Friday nail-biter was reversed with a Sunday first-quarter avalanche that Georgia was never able to dig themselves out from under. 

Add in the upset on the other side of the bracket, and Iowa State is staring at undiscovered country of their own.

It's a lot to take in, but its a very fun ride.

Bad matchups

 Someone on the seeding committee was unimpressed with the Cyclones last two weeks.

They struggle against quality defensive teams, especially ones that are physical. Who did they draw in their first two NCAA games? Physical defensive teams, both in the top 25 on defensive metrics. They won't survive the weekend even if they find a way to beat LSU.

(The GoBlas, on the other hand, were all but given a free pass to the Sweet 16. They get to play two teams in the 60's defensively. They will hang 90+ in both games and cruise. Figures)

The women didn't fare much better. Potential second round matchup Georgia looks like Texas on paper, and we know how those games went. Add in the potential rematch against TOE, and I think it will be a short tourney run for the women, too.

As usual, I hope to be proven wrong.

Trends

 As noted by Travis Hines @TravisHines21 at the DMR, the Cyclones had a very healthy 1.29 PPP in the first half against KSU, which may have been the best half of the season. The second half was only .719.

But viewing the second half as a whole doesn’t tell the whole tale. The Cyclones managed 18 points in their first 18 possessions, which would have easily won the game if they could have maintained that pace. They were still up 10 with 9:02 left.

But then the bottom fell out. Over their last 13 possessions only 5 points were scored. That’s a PPP of .38. There were 5 turnovers in the last 13 possessions, which resulted in 5 KSU points and buckets of momentum. 

Frankly, the insane start to the game in some ways doomed the Cyclones. Scoring 13 points in your first 6 possessions (2.16 PPP!) lets your subconscious think the game is over in the first 4 minutes. Holding an early lead like that for the remainder of the game is harder than it looks, especially for a team that has been playing from behind for six weeks.

There was a load of good in that game to build from, but this team can only play one way to generate the points needed to win.

Data

Nearing the halfway mark of the Big 12 season, we should all firmly understand how Otz's crew has to play to have a chance to win in the league. 

Games like TCU? Nope.

Games like Stillwater? Yup.

If this crew is within 5 points with 4 minutes to go, they are going to win their share of games. But they don't get in that position when they chuck 50 jump shots and don't attack the rim. Playing defense like they care goes a long way too.

Plateaus

 We have watched to iowa State-Clemson game now twice, and we are tossing ideas around on how to sum the game, and if it carries symbolism for the Cyclones football program.

Yes, it does.

Any symbolism is in fact simple observation: Iowa State has vastly better talent compared to earlier coaching staffs, and can now play even games against the highest tier of college football teams. Full Stop.

Winning those games is another question. The defense played well enough to win against both Clemson and in 10 of the 13 games this season. That's all you can ask.

The offensive line is able to dominate bad teams (outside of September) but struggles as the opponents improve. That unit may be the most inconsistent of all of the groups, and may- may- be the unit holding the team back. 

We are watching a football program that has a puncher's chance in every game, and barring crazy injuries should be bowl eligible every year. That's an odd thing to write as a group that witnessed the Great Football Walk In The Desert that was the 80's and 90's. 

We will see a lot of new faces next year, but each player that stepped up this year did well. We are on a new football plateau. Enjoy the view.

Double

 Cyclone fans enjoyed a remarkable pair of nights in Hilton. Given how many painful losses we have witnesses to the Goblas, it was fun to hand down a pair of solid wins. 

For the men to hammer the Goblas the way the did was fantastic, especially with Hilton at full roar. If any of the current players didn’t understand the potential of the building at its best, they do now. And the fan base will be returning each night to help carry the team across the finish. 

It’s good to be relevant again. Enjoy the ride.

Leverage

 It seems that each of the last four seasons have ended with rumors of Campbell's imminent departure. But given the current landscape, this might be the year it happens.

Several brand name programs- programs that have won national titles and could win more- are without a coach. Several of the assumed candidates have been locked up by their current schools with massive 10-year contracts. The pool of candidates who would please a fan base is suddenly small.

Coach Campbell may suddenly be the most attractive 'available' candidate.

CMC seems to be wired differently from most coaches, and doesn't come across as a ladder climber. But he also climbed one rung of the ladder to leave Toledo for Iowa State. Why would he not climb another?

He mentioned in an interview a few years ago that he had given "Stillness is the Key" to his staff to read one summer, which is an interesting choice of books. Much of the book harps on being in the moment, focusing at the task at hand, not looking ahead, concepts that fit into his coaching philosophy and you hear repeated by his players.

But a big section of the middle of the book talks about the folly of pursuing riches and fame, as both are fleeting and fail to satisfy. The moment you finish climbing one mountain your brain turns to the next challenge. 

It would be odd to embrace the part of the book that helps one be successful but ignore another part that warns of pursuing success in the hopes of finding happiness.

Perhaps the brand name jobs are becoming less of a goal for coaches. Each coach who signed on with their second or third tier school may have realized that they can have a good life at a place without "Championship or Bust" aspirations. Is $8 million a year worth it if you are being hung in effigy after a disappointing loss in year two? 

Campbell can drive a hard bargain if he wants to try and win a title. ADs who are desperate to appease their fan base will throw unimaginable riches at him this week. CMC may also use the moment to earn another pay raise for the staff, most of whom have coached for him for a decade. 

We will learn a lot about Campbell's priorities in the next few weeks.

Advantage

It's good to see our Cyclones exploit an advantage.

Every long run against TCU came on a cutback on a stretch play- three times to the left, and once to the right. Whether that tendency was noticed on tape of discovered in game, kudos for going to it again and again.

Sometimes if feels that offensive coordinators are trying to win a prize for cleverness from the Offensive Coordinator's Association rather than scoring points and winning games. Example- eight running plays get you First and Goal, so surprise the defense with three pass plays! Dumb. Keep using what's working.

Most turnarounds at football programs involve a core of recruits who dramatically raise the team's performance through ability or execution or both. The group that Campbell and Co. brought in were exceptional, and have claimed big sections of the record book as their own.

Now comes the hard part- finding players who can maintain the culture and continue to raise the bar.

Turnaround

Seven new players and a 6-0 start, playing tough defense and running an offense that uses each player's strengths. This team has learned a lot in only six weeks of practice.

The portion of the fan base that was grumpy at Jamie "hiring one of his buddies" is noticeably quiet.

While we don't expect more than 6 wins in the B12 this year, it will be fun to watch, knowing the Cyclones can win on any night that enough threes find the bottom of the net.

Carry on, fellas.

Good but not Great

 Welcome to the Good but not Great era of Cyclone Football.

As it becomes more clear that the 2020 season was an outlier, Cyclone fans need to come to grips with the fact that while the Campbell regime has improved the baseline for the football program, they are now merely above average in the Big 12. 

Compared to the previous 40 years of football, it's a giant improvement. But the gap between consistent winning and Consistently Great is another large step, one that may be harder than it appears.

We all need to enjoy the feeling that Iowa State could win each week, and celebrate every victory that does appear.

You never know when the ride will come to an end.

Shattered

 The Cyclone football program is broken in both the first half of seasons and first half of games.

Their September stumbles are well documented, and are a long term project.

Opponents have realized that the defensive scheme improves in the second half, so any hay that is going to be made needs to be in the barn at halftime. Teams with gumption and grit are burying the defense in the first half of late.

Football experts will have to break down if Iowa State isn't executing early or if teams are breaking out new material at the start of games, but the results of late have been sub-par, especially for a program with such high hopes in August. Perhaps the rest of the league adopting the principals of the the Cyclone defense has removed the exoticness of the scheme. 

2020 being an outlier looms larger with each passing week. Rats.

Hammers

 It was exciting to watch our Cyclones avalanche the Longhorns after halftime. The option pass to Milton to put ISU up 10 was an emotional back breaker for a fragile Texas squad that is definitely unsure of itself under the new staff. 

The 27-0 run in the second was a beautiful dismantling of a of a team loaded with both talent and money that doesn’t know how to properly leverage either.

While it would have been fun to make Texas endure a 25 degree day and sideways snow, (Nebraska 1988 comes to mind)  the mild day allowed Cyclone fans to be at a full lather when it mattered. Fun times.

Margins

 Against OSU, odd officials calls ended up even, or at least were in situations that Iowa State was able to overcome. Against WVU, no such luck.

Given Iowa State's propensity to play close games, they are more susceptible to losing or winning based on one call. Unless the program is able find a way to increase its margin in games, we will all have to get used to more nail biters and the occasional shaft job.

Not that Cyclone fans have ever watched their team be beaten by the refs.

Front seat

The Cyclones are playing like they realize that they have little margin for error in their quest for a return to the B12 Championship game.

Finding a way to lose in Waco limits the paths to Arlington. One path is winning the road games that don't involve Norman, and last week's hit job in Manhattan should make one optimistic that they can also win in Morgantown and Lubbock. The remainder of the path is downing everyone who come to Ames. KU offered little resistance, but Oklahoma State was more than able to put up a fight. Iowa State is fortunate to have that game in the win column.

The short version is that Iowa State needs to win and Baylor needs to lose. Half of that equation is in Iowa State's hands. They may not be in the driver's seat, but they have squeezed into the front.

Steady

 Coming into the game with Kansas State, we knew three things about the Cyclones:

-They could avoid losing to an FCS team

-They could blow out teams in the bottom 10% of FBS

-They could find ways to lose against ranked teams.

Kansas State doesn't fit any of the above categories. They have the talent to be bowl eligible, but have weaknesses that may keep them from getting there. Would ISU find a way to win, or would they muddle along and try to win on the last possession?

The results were the reverse, as the Cyclones put the game away early, and prevented KSU from making it a game in the second half. That was enjoyable.

Oklahoma State will be a much stiffer test, and have been Kryptomite to Iowa State's October magic. But the performance in Manhattan makes a win against the Cowboys plausible.

Habits

An offense which often dramatically out gains their opponent, yet has a habit of kicking field goals in the red zone at a higher rate than the rest of college football.

A defense that is nails in the second half has a habit of giving up touchdowns on the opponent’s first two or three possessions, forcing the team to play from behind all day.

Special teams has a habit of being sub-optimal in general and frequently being the difference between a win and a loss in a bad way.

The staff has a habit of producing lackluster Septembers, which limits the upside of the team and demoralizes the fan base. 

You are a collection of your habits.

Efficiency

The starting offense had 8 trips into the UNLV red zone in 8 possessions and came away with 38 points. That was an improvement over the first two weeks when the offense found a combined 33 points on 8 trips.

So red zone performance isn't the bugaboo it was at times last season- the problem appears to be a lack of red zone trips. 

UNLV will probably be the weakest defense the team will face this year, so the offense will need to be very efficient at converting red aone trips, or discover some explosive play ability.

It was nice to overmatch a team early and put a game out of reach before halftime. Bravo

Outliers

Considering the offensive struggle of the 2021 team, perhaps we should contemplate that the 2020 team was an outlier.

The Cyclones got their best performances when it mattered, avoided major injuries, and played some teams when they were having COVID-19 issues. Human nature is to assume the current situation will remain constant, and change will happen at a steady pace and in the current trajectory.

It's hard to see the outlier in the moment- you can only spot it in hindsight. Would a 7-5 or 8-4 finish make 2021 a dissapointment? Yes. But it would also emphasize how special the 2020 season was.

It was easy to drink the Kool-Aid in the offseason with everyone coming back. But past performance is no guarantee of future returns. So far the offense has returned little.

Consistency

Perhaps we all need to make peace with the Cyclones being lousy in September as long as CMC is in charge.

The Russian judge hates it, but a win is a win.

Run the table, boys

For the first time since the leather helmet was standard, the unthinkable is a least plausible: a perfect Cyclone football season, a conference football title, and more.

The staff at CSJ, for one season, are taking off the nut cup and hoping that things go our way like they never have before. Our prediction:

Iowa State goes undefeated, 12-0 in the regular season, and wins the Big 12 title game.

But-

They don't get a shot at the title.

We witness a weird season in the Big 12. Iowa State and TCU play for the Championship, while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can only manage 9-3 overall. Texas stumbles to 4-8. (Iowa underachieves at 6-6 or 7-5) The national narrative dissolves into "The Big 12 isn't good this year." ISU lacks a Top 10 win and earns only 3 Top 25 wins and must settle for a nice, yet weirdly underwhelming New Year's Day bowl game. 

The Cyclones finish at 14-0, but the season is unsatisfying, a disappointment for reasons beyond our control.

The ride will still be thrilling. Buckle up.

Fun Ball League

 The following isn't going to happen, but it's an idea I've tossed around with friends at tailgates.

The new Irate 8 invite Memphis and Tulane into the league to return to a 10-team scenario. Everyone plays everyone else in football each year, home-home in basketball. Tournament still lives in Kansas City.

Why those schools? Both Memphis and New Orleans know how to show visitors a good time. Memphis is driveable for almost the entire fan base of the league. NOLA is a short flight from Iowa and Kansas, driveable from most of Texas and OK.

The CSJ staff would make a road trip to one of those cities every-dang-year if we could roll a football or basketball game into the package.

Merely a pipe dream, but a fun one to joke about.

Upside

 

The CSJ staff is torn on how to approach the 2021 season.

On one hand, Cyclone Football stands at the border of Undiscovered Country, a level of national respect that few expected Iowa State would ever see. An Over/Under win total of 9.5 was unimaginable a few years ago. ISU tossed around as a possible Playoff team, which means a puncher's chance at a Natty. Insane stuff for a fan base that puts the Suffering in Long-Suffering.

On the other hand, the potential for an epic prat fall on the national stage will crank the anxiety of many a Cyclone fan. There have been other claims of arrival at the Big Time, only to crash in the moment. Anyone fearing the drop of the other shoe would be forgiven.

But given that we have never been to this place as a fan base, enjoying the ride is the best path to take. Wearing your nut cup all summer will make it difficult to enjoy the peaks, as clouds of doubt will always shadow the moment. Breathe the anticipation deeply, as it will fuel the celebration if the impossible arrives. 

And if the unthinkable happens, focus on the journey we have made as a community, rather than any perceived fall.  

Decisive

 Given the rapid movement and high profile openings in college basketball coaching jobs, Pollard looks smart for having a plan and acting on it early. While Coach Otz probably wasn't on the radar of a lot of AD's, he's not an unknown commodity. Someone would have come calling if Pollard had lingered.

Here's hoping things shake out well for Ames.

Courage

 The cake that was the basketball season was baked in November, and all we fans could do was watch and wait to learn if it would be lousy or terrible. Terrible it was.

There were some games where I was unsure of what the game plan was on offense or defense, but for many others you could see the players still trying to run their stuff and make something happen. It would have been easy to pack it in mentally after 10 games, but this bunch kept plugging away. They just couldn't figure out how to win a game down the stretch. Good teams find a way, bad teams don't.

It's unfortunate Steve didn't find more success in Ames. It's funny how often the jerks get to keep their jobs, while the good guys have to find something else to do.

The Undiscovered Country

 Iowa State Football now stands in territory it has never before known. 

The foundation appears solid enough to expect a bit of a walk around in this new place.

Enjoy the journey, for none of us know how long we will be able to stay. 

Opportunity

 I’m afraid this remarkable season, filled with so many firsts, will haunt me for falling short. 

You were facing a solid but not awesome OU team that you had already beaten in a season where your squad was probably the best in the league. You rally to come close but cant seal the deal, and can’t silence 108 years of demons. So the demons remain. Cute story, but the past dominates the minds of most observers. 

A return trip next season isn’t a crazy thought, but so many variables can swing against you. Coaches leave. Key players get hurt. Team chemistry sours. Fumbles bounce the other way. You don’t get the kick you need. Ask Kansas State. They’ve had one first place finish since 2003, and that was nine seasons ago. Outside of Norman, consistent winning in this league is hard.

Every day is a new opportunity. The big opportunities, the ones that change the trajectories of lives, are rare. Today was one. Opportunity missed.

Finishing before things start

 It’s one thing to pull games out in the second half, it’s another to never let the opponent in the game in the first place. 

To dominate a good team with everything on the line was impressive.

The only thing left to do is to go win the whole dang thing.

Closers

 Three times this season, the Cyclones have found themselves down 10 or more and won. Today’s comeback was the most impressive as everything was on the table.

At the moment when every other Cyclone team failed when it entered the unexplored country of football success, this group found the way. Hold Texas to 7 points across the last three quarters. Grind out a late touchdown after struggling in the red zone all day. Do just enough on a final defensive stand to force the final play that goes your way. Just enough to likely earn a shot at the title.

A shot we’ve been waiting 108 years to arrive. Savor being on the stage.

Smothered

 Kansas State gained 62 yards on their first possession, but were stoned in their four plays inside the 10. 

They then gained 87 yards across the remaining 11 possessions in the game, and failed to score. Their second best possession was 7 plays for 28 yards and a turnover on downs. They gave up 5 3-and-outs. 

While it was fun watching the offense floor it when they had their chances, the job done by the defense was spectacular, and gives Cyclone fans hope in a rather important game in Austin on Friday.

All gas, no brakes.

Fearless

A 3 INT start would have crushed most Cyclone football teams.

This team ran off 21 plays for 210 yards and four touchdowns in a little more than 15 minutes in the second half to overwhelm Baylor.

The defense limited Baylor to 11 plays and 16 yards during the burst. 

The sequence felt like a crazy run for the Hoiball period- coming back from 20 down in 6 minutes to pull a game out of the fire. Good times.

The CSJ staff has spent 40 years doubting that Iowa State could win a conference title because of the difficulty of the task. Now the staff is saying- “Why not?”

Review

 Many are arguing that criticism of a 30 point conference win is nitpicking. I must differ.

Organizations that improve and grow are constantly reviewing and grading themselves, examining both the good and the bad. Sports is one of the few areas of our lives that studies itself as part of the routine. Most businesses and almost all humans are comfortable in their productive ruts. As long as the habits are causing damage, let things be. 

Sports realizes that rapid change is needed as seasons have hard limits, and opportunities are quickly lost. Grumbling about offensive lulls and disastrous special teams play is appropriate, as each week the window  for a championship closes a little more. Given Iowa States lack of football success, simply being in the conversation should have everyone involved on high alert. This kind of opportunity is exceedingly rare in Ames, and one should never assume it will return anytime soon. Life is random. When a door opens you have to be ready to walk through it. 

Being ready requires nitpicking when it feels awkward. Champions nitpick.

Blueprint

 Louisiana defended the Cyclones with man coverage and pocket pressure on every play. The Cyclones never found a rhythm and lost.

Okie State defended with man coverage and pocket pressure. The Cyclones never found a rhythm and lost. 

The word is out on how to slow Purdy and Co. The job ahead will be scheming how to overcome blitz pressure.

Numbers

 Texas Tech's first nine offensive possessions, plays/yards, result:

3/7, punt

3/7, punt

7/34, punt

4/19, punt

2/2, half

5/10, punt

4/9, downs (at ISU 30)

3/7, punt

6/54, downs (at ISU 25)

That’s 38 plays for 149 yards and no points. 3.9 yards per play. 6 punts in 8 possessions, and 2 turnovers on downs. Against a team averaging 37 points per game. Domination.

If your defense can hold teams that far below their averages, you can win a lot of games.

Ignore the last two possessions as the were classic ‘Garbage Time’ results. Iowa State was in a 3 man rush Prevent, and in 19 plays across two drives rushed more than 3 exactly once, resulting in a sack. 

The offense played their part by controlling the ball on long drives, and with the exception of some poor execution in the red zone had a Grade A day. Also winning football.

The biggest test to date is next in Stillwater. The Cyclones are definitely trending in the right direction. 

Unlocked

 CSJ staff spent 15 minutes after the game explaining to the less experienced members of the staff how difficult a nut Oklahoma has been for Iowa State over time. The Sooners don’t beat Iowa State, they thrash them. 56-3 seems like the median score in the series.

But sprinkled within the blowouts were near-misses that were more aggravating than the thumpings. A missed field goal as time expired to settle for a 7-7 tie. A 12-10 home loss on national TV. An onside kick returned for the winning TD. Going 0-3 against John Blake, who went 12-22 as OU coach. An uncalled DPI on a 2 point attempt for the win. And on, and on, and on.

Part of Cyclone fandom never believed that Iowa State could win the league because OU would always be in the way, but the final lock has been turned, and the door to a title path has been opened.

The only thing left is to walk the walk. Forward.

Good to Great?

 The win over TCU was a massive step forward on offense, and suggests potential for greatness as the season moves forward.

Given the choice, the CSJ staff will choose run blocking over pass blocking every time, as run blocking opens up passing options in ways that don’t occur in the reverse. Go big fellas, go.

Give OU a second conference loss and the league breaks wide, wide open. A national audience will be watching to see if Iowa State has become a Big Boy or is still a Plucky Upstart.

The New Big Boys find a way to win. Go get it done.

Never bet against a streak

 B12 game in September under Campbell? That mean the Cyclones lose in Ft. Worth. 

The only surprise will be in the route they take.

A Tradition Like No Other

 One bad game is one bad game. But when a program stumbles out of the gate each September there is a systematic problem in the program. 

Campbell is 6-11 in September. A 52 point win over a Sun Belt team, two wins against Akron, a win against San Jose State, and two wins against UNI- one of which should have been a loss. 

The losses? Four to the GoBlas, five to B12 opponents, a home loss to a solid Louisiana squad, and one to a good UNI team in Campbell’s first game.

Iowa State clearly isn’t using the Kansas State “Three pushovers” scheduling plan, but clearly the training camp process needs to be evaluated. This is one tradition that needs to end. 

Trice Shield

 The "Trice Shield" (my name, not Athletics) should be on every uniform of every sport. It speaks to ideas bigger than football. 

I would make it an official alternate logo for Athletics. Print it on everything. It's simple, versatile, universal. Put it everywhere.

Spinning things back up

 There are uncountable unknowns in our day to day lives in the time of COVID, but I am glad that Big 12 athletics are giving the fall sports season a try. Be cautious, monitor your data, and be prepared to adjust or shut down if things go badly.

Selfishly, I hope our Cyclones have the kind of season that justifies the risks that are being taken.

A record setting night at Hilton

Iowa State's come-from-ahead loss to Florida A&M was a memorable night at Hilton, as it was probably the worst Iowa State basketball loss since 1950, and probably ever. That's weirdly impressive.

My dive into the Massey ratings archives brought back memories of some awful losses, but provided the data to put this loss in perspective. Florida A&M was ranked #315 before the game, a 26 point underdog. The next worst losses I could find from the road was the 1998 loss at Drake (#298), 2004 loss in Waco (#225), and a 1983 loss at Jacksonville (#220).

But a 2017 home loss to Milwaukee (#203) and a 2009 loss to South Dakota State (#231) put the magnitude of this loss in focus: it was an epically bad loss, considering they started he second half up by 12. 6:38 later the game was tied, and the Rattlers played like they were the better team. 

Sitting your talented point guard for a night shouldn't bring the offense to a stop. This is certainly a transition year, but we are far enough into the season that there has to be a Plan B.

Thumped both physically and mentally

Notre Dame exposed our Cyclones deficiencies in the same ways that Iowa, Baylor and Kansas State did: a lack of ability on the lines, and an inability to make the important plays on offense.

The progression of growing a better offensive line is easy to understand, but in Year Four they may be considered behind schedule compared to the turnarounds at other programs.

The failure on important plays and inability to score TDs after crossing the 50 has become A Problem for the offense, and must be fixed quickly or this staff will not reach their goals for the program. ISU scored zero touchdowns on six trips across the 50, while ND was only 2/7 (not including the 86 yard TD run). Score TDs rather than kick field goals and the game is interesting, rather than an emotional rout.

But complaining about a bad bowl performance beats complaining about a 3-9 team. Progress of sorts, but changes need to be made while the bottom half of the league is still in flux. Seize the moment.

Progress Isn't Linear

The hangover from pre-season Kool-Aid can be harsh when your team doesn't live up to pre-season expectations.

Winning close games is more random than anyone wants to admit.

The hard part is being good enough to give yourself a chance against the teams with better talent. By that metric, mission accomplished.

A disappointing 7-5 year is still more fun than any 3-9 year.

Growth

About 24 minutes into this postgame analysis, these two Texas fans state what the rest of the Big12 has thought for a long time:

Every other program seems to develop their talent, while Texas stays static.

In other words, "Nobody does less with more than Texas". (Note to self: That would make a great shirt in all the rival colors.)

Let's compare stats from 2018's 24-10 ISU loss in Austin with this year's 23-21 ISU win in Ames:

Last year, UT was plus 117 yards rushing and 2.1 yards per play over the Cyclones.
This year, ISU was plus 60 rushing and 0.4 YPP, for change of 177 yards on the ground and 2.5 YPP. That's gigantic.

Texas has 46 4 or 5 star athletes on their roster. Iowa State has 4. Yes, 4.

The numbers speak for themselves.

Going For It

For being a conservative guy wanting to play a conservative style, we are watching Coach Campbell grow more aggressive when the moment calls for it. The aggressiveness is calculated, playing the percentages, rather than reckless, and it may pay dividends down the line. As opposing coaches learn that Iowa State is going to press for extra, they will take risks to counter, to add to the lead, and hopefully make mistakes that can be swung in the Cyclones favor.

It is an attitude the football program hasn't had in my memory. It is a pleasant change.

Three winnable games left on the slate, three games that will determine how fans view the season as a whole.

Seize the moment, and go for it.

The Run Game

Twitter tells us that Saturday's game in Morgantown was one of Brock Purdy's worst (19-30-1, 1 TD, 6 rushes for -15, 3 sacks) so to see the running game emerge to fill the gap was encouraging. 34 carries for 167 yards was a solid 4.9 YPC, kept the chains moving and got into the end zone when the opportunity arrived. More of that, please.

The second-half stifling of the West Virginia offense was a thing of beauty, backup QB or not. The drive chart for WV in the back half: punt, punt, punt, punt, INT, Fumble. 21 plays for 44 yards. That'll do boys, that'll do.

Our Cyclones can win a lot of football games that way. Forward.

Stunner

Given the offensive struggles the Cyclones had against the two solid defenses they played earlier in the year (Iowa and Baylor), to witness the offensive competency that broke out against TCU was stunning. Six touchdowns on nine possessions in TCU territory is getting it done, and couldn't have come at a better time with more winnable games this month.

The offensive performance was even more surprising after how disruptive the TCU defense had been for ISU recently. The last six games- five losses for ISU- have all been tough sledding for the offense, and one has to go back to the 2012 win in Fort Worth to find another day where the offense did what it wanted against the Horned Frogs.

While having your QB be your leading rusher isn't a good long-term plan, it appears that running threat is what opens up the offense as a whole. So be it.

Onward to Morgantown.

.500ish

Cyclone football is 7-8 in the last 2.25 seasons in games that ended with a margin of 7 points or less. They win their share of the close ones.

Clearly this offense is going to struggle against decent defenses. When the other team can make you one dimensional, your margin for error goes way down.

ISU had plenty of opportunities to score what would have been the winning points- but they found a way to screw up, which cost them in the end. Slap on the back for taking the lead after a furious comeback. But the offense only got three TDs on eight trips into Baylor territory. That ain't gonna cut it.

The Cyclones could be the underdog in seven of the last 8. Buckle up.

Slumpbuster

Scoring on 11 consecutive possessions counts as a good day.

A step down in competition helped the offense find its stride, and getting the ball in the hands of a mismatch led to several long plays and scores.

The first five B12 games are, on paper, winnable. Hopefully Purdy and crew can keep the scoring momentum going.

On defense, some were grumbling at the yards given up to ULM, be we will not join them. So many snaps were taken by the seconds and thirds that a drop in execution is to be expected. Don't panic, it was actually good news from an experience standpoint.

We've learned a lot in the first three games, but now we will see if the knowledge can be leveraged.

Yips

The loss to the Goblas was the result of a bad habit the Cyclone offense has developed: the yips once they cross the 50.

Against Wazzou: 8 trips across the 50, 3 TDs.
Against UNI: 8 trips (in regulation): 1 TD
Against SUI: 8 trips: 2 TDs, both on long passes.

Sense a trend? Fix the yips and this team will be a problem in the B12.

But offensive yips will limit this team to 5 or 6 wins rather than 9 or 10.

Bullet. Dodged.

Few will recall the defense holding UNI to 33 rushing yards, one red-zone trip and 6 points in regulation.

All will remember the bumbling, stumbling offensive performance. One step forward, one step sideways, one shot in the foot. Solid on first and second down, incompetent on third or fourth. Dynamic between the 20's, Keystone Cops in the red zone. Four great plays in Tempo force a UNI time out, so never run Tempo the rest of the game.

We understand that the first game against a (supposedly) overmatched opponent is an opportunity to get a bunch of things on tape, and run players, formations and plays in new combinations. But at some point in the second half you have to focus on the whole point of the afternoon: Win the dang game.

Despite the offenses best attempts, Iowa State did win the game, almost on accident. They all count the same, even if the Russian judge would have hated it.

Two weeks until the Goblas arrive in the 515, and so much on offense to repair. Even though betting is now legal in Iowa, there is no way you should touch this one. Still too much in the unknown.

Spin It Up

With the Cyclone Hype Train at historic levels, actual football can't arrive soon enough. Given how 2018 played out, you can't blame Cyclone fans from drinking some of the Kool-Aid.

Tell the CSJ staff how well the offensive line will run block and we will tell you which side of 8 wins the team ends up with. Run the ball poorly and it will be a struggle against the better half of the schedule. Run the ball well and all kinds of possibilities open up.

Since sports gambling will be legal in Iowa next week, our nickel is on an 8-4 finish. Solid play on both sides of the ball, but Purdy and gang won't be able to manufacture multiple miracle finishes like they needed so often last year. (Tech, KSU, Drake) You can only tap that well so many times.

As the league goes, OU and Texas are on their own tier. Iowa State, Okie State, TCU and Baylor are the next tier. WVU, K State and Tech will need time to install all the new stuff. KU is 10th until further notice.

Tiers 2 and 3 will be a random draw of wins and losses. ISU could finish 3rd through 6th and we won't be surprised. It will be that kind of year.

As always, enjoy the ride. You never know when it will end.

Disapointment Or Success?

In October, NCAA trips would have been a successful season for both Iowa State basketball teams.

But given how each was playing in early January, fans rightfully raised the bar for the season.

While the women were able to finish first in the Best Big 12 Team Not Named Baylor race, the men stumbled down the stretch. The women's march to the title game and the men's run to the title had fans giddy.

The individual losses that knocked each out of the tournament were uncharacteristically poor shooting nights, yet each had chances to win in the final minute. When you get in that situation you cross your fingers and hope you get the bounces. Neither did.

But the body of work was solid, and compared to the previous year, were solid steps forward. Now the job is to maintain that level of play despite big changes in production. The parts are there. The question is if the parts can improve and mesh.

The winter of 2019-20 should be worth watching.

A Victory Of Effort

While the last three weeks have not gone the way that Cyclone fans had hoped, today's home loss to Tech was a minor victory (I'm not using the term "moral victory").

The effort was the effort that is needed on a nightly basis. Everyone seemed to be working the game plan. They were where they wanted to be with four minutes left. The better team ended up winning the game and a share of the league title. Bully for them.

Is the season a disappointment? From where we stood three weeks ago, yes. But I try to take the long-term view at moments like this. A bad effort today would have been a red flag for the long term health of the program. We may have avoided a full implosion.

Beat Baylor in Kansas City and things get interesting again. Go get 'em.

Giddy. Up.

An impressive second half in Manhattan pushed Iowa State back into the conversation for a conference title. ISU shouldn't have lost to K State back in the first week of January, but the way the Wildcats have played in the league takes that game out of "bad loss" category.

Keep winning and cross our collective fingers that the needed losses come to pass.

Hopefully the home loss to TCU won't block the Cyclones from a title. This is more fun than guessing if ISU will avoid the Wednesday game.

Adjustments

Kansas State entered Saturday's game in the top 10 for defensive efficiency- and the way they denied the drive befuddled Iowa State's offense. If adjustments were being made, they were not apparent until the second half.

It also took a full half for the Cyclones to realize that fouls were not going to be called on the defense, so you might as well get rough with the Wildcats. Rough they got, and physical defense helped get them a 7 point lead with 5 minutes to play. Had that change come in the first half, perhaps KSU never builds their 11 point half-time lead.

The last three offensive possessions were empty, and the last ten possessions resulted in only 6 points. That is sub-optimal.

But it also means they are very close. Small improvements move losses into the win column.

Reverting to the mean

The CSJ staff agreed after an entertaining dismantling of Kansas on Saturday that the true test would come Tuesday in Waco, and the collective hunch was right.

The effort was a click lower, the details just a bit off, the shots a little less smooth, a little more forced. In other words, it was the typical game after a team gets a big win and has to go on the road. It's all good when the shots are falling like Saturday, but another nut when they are not.

Reminder: Don't complain about bad calls at the end when you put yourself in position to get squeezed by a bad call. The last three minutes of offense were lousy for Iowa State, and clinched the loss.

Learn from Waco and improve.

Randomness

I recently read an analysis of college football victory margins (but of course can't link to the original article) that suggested that good teams win lots of games by a high percentage of "definitive wins", or wins by 8 points or more. Bad teams lose a lot of games by 8 points or more. Seems obvious, no?

The kicker is that great teams only win "close games"- 7 points or fewer- at a 54% clip.

Close games come down to random events and luck. The fumble bounces towards the offensive player rather than the defensive player. A safety falls down covering a slant and gives up a TD. Field Goals are pushed Wide Right. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Which brings us to Iowa State's loss to Washington State in the Alamo Bowl. Wazzou only had the ball inside the ISU 45 4 times- and all 4 possessions resulted in a TD. Iowa State crossed WSU's 45 8 times, but only came away with 3 TD's.

Game. Over.

Why the failures inside the 45? 8 false starts, mostly on the plus side of the field. One INT trying to hit a covered receiver. A FG try off the upright. One drive stalled at the WS 38, resulting in a punt. A FG from the 6. Any of those drives hit the end zone and the failed 2-point conversion may not matter.

When the game is close, random events that might not normally matter cast a longer shadow. Even great teams can't avoid random effects. A two-score margin in the 4th is important.

The Alamo Bowl was a bigger stage for our Cyclones, and the offense, especially the line, wasn't ready for it. But you only learn by being there.

Stragetory

The CSJ staff were impressed with the Drake staff and players Saturday. Playing in the worst field conditions we can recall, Drake developed a solid offensive plan after the second possession, and used it to put themselves in a spot to win the game. When players can't cut or really push off, whatever speed and strength advantage a team has disappears. Drake took advantage.

Our Cyclones, however, appeared to use the same game plan they had run the week before, assuming they could manage despite not being able to cut.  Not so much.

Changes were made in the fourth to avoid what would have arguably been the biggest upset in college football history, and at the end of the day a win is a win.  The Russian judge still hated it.

Either the staff didn't adjust their game plan to fit conditions, or they did adjust and little of it worked. I'm not sure which was more worrisome.

Perhaps they Cyclones effort and focus would have been higher if that had been a conference game. We know that the next time ISU is asked to play in the slop we will be holding our collective breaths.

14

Fourteen years of random thoughts about Cyclone sports. I'm afraid to count how many coaches I have mentioned.

Thanks for reading- it's hopefully worth what you have paid for it.

Fitting

There was only one proper way to end a losing streak against an opponent that was full of missteps, errors and anguish: by delivering some anguish of your own.

Any Cyclone fan watching that game assumed it was over down 17 with 12:30 left in the 4th. The computers put KSU's win percentage at 98%, which might have been too low.

And yet- they found a way to win, as unlikely as that win was. The crew in purple got the long, slow trip home to ponder what if, and what's next.

Progress isn't linear, but I like the trend.

Playoff Hockey

It's hard to explain the difference between regular-season hockey and playoff hockey, but you know it when you see it. It is something you can't prepare for; you have to experience it first hand.

The Cyclones got that first-hand experience Saturday night in Austin. A talented team playing for a Championship berth took the heads off another team that wasn't ready for the moment.

I suspect the next time this team has a similar opportunity the outcome will be different. It may not result in a victory, but the game won't be over in the first 10 minutes.

Saturday's game against will teach us a lot about the mental progress of the program. Here's hoping they exorcise the K-State ghost from their system.

Uncharted Waters

Another workman-like win, another new opportunity.

By dispatching the Baylor "Lack-of-institutional-control" Bears, Iowa State has sailed further into unknown waters for both the football team and the fan base.

Savor the moment and the possibilities.

Ames has been playing football since 1892, and hasn't won a conference title since winning the Missouri Valley in 1911 and 1912. To still have a chance to play for a title in mid-November is remarkable.

In 2013 the Cyclones gave up 71 points to Baylor. In 2016 Baylor scored 45 in Ames, a game ISU should have won. Yet Baylor has only scored 27 points in the last two games combined. The progress is obvious.

Enjoy the moment, and hope that Texas is distracted this week.

Keep it simple, stupid

You learn a lot by looking a teams at their extremes. Most look at how a team performs against top flight competition. I also look at games when the team is a big favorite.

Aside from Butler's two ridiculous TD catches in the first half, there was little flash in Iowa State's 27-3 win over Kansas. Once up two scores, there were lots of running plays and outside screens, but only a few attempts at pushing the ball down the field. Three of those attempts in the fourth led to sacks, including the one time KU blitzed. It was minimalist, time-possession ball on offense, which should be a window into how Coach Campbell likes things. An Art Briles Baylor team would have tried to hang 80 in Lawrence; ISU was happy with 27.

That's doesn't mean Campbell was casual about scoring. The First-and-Goal possessions that led to short field goals peeved him, according to the replays. He still wants to maximize the opportunities that the team gets. But a 12-play, 8:00 drive is preferred to a 3 play, :55 drive every time.

The defense adjusted in the second half to close down the KU running game (~25 yards in the half) and were content to play prevent for multiple drives. CSJ staff counted 11 plays in the Red Zone for KU in the 4th- and they came away with zero points. KU's best shot at scoring came in the 1st on a broken coverage, and the receiver flat out dropped a TD at the ISU 5. So goes their season. KU's field goal was the result of a drive that only got to the ISU 29. Stout when it mattered.

Yes, 100+ passing yards in quarter is concerning, but it was garbage time against the prevent. Scoreboard matters.

Which brings up the aforementioned Bears. They are certainly capable of winning in Ames if the Cyclones are not on point, but the performance in Lawrence suggests that the staff and team can maintain focus when it is required.

Grinders

It was refreshing to watch our Cyclones find a way to win a game they would have lost only two years ago.

Progress is fun.

The next order of business is beating the three conference teams left on the schedule that the metrics say are not as good as Iowa State. Take care of business as the old saying goes.

Never the New Normal

The turnaround over the last 24 games has been so dramatic- from slumpbuster to The Team That Kills Title Dreams- it's a little hard to comprehend that beating Top 10 teams may no longer be an outlier, an unusual event, for fans of Iowa State.

Even as each win grows in surprising scale- this time tripling WVU in yardage and winning by 16 in a game that could have been won by 30- Cyclone fan never forgets to act surprised, because each giant win is new to the consciousness.

Hopefully, regardless of how many more crazy wins are in the program's future, the fan base will embrace each as if it's the first one.

Progress

Saturday proved progress both in a week-to-week sense and in the narrative arc of the Campbell tenure.

Iowa State should have beaten the Cowboys the last three seasons, but Saturday had the moxie to take a lead after a bad start, and then to respond each time OSU closed to within a score. They broke through that mental wall.

In 2014, TCU blasted Iowa State 55-3 on their way to a 12-1 season. They should have been in the playoff, while our Cyclones surrendered 466 points in that season. (In comparison, TCU gave up only 247 that year.)

The last two years, TCU has scored 21 points total against ISU. You don't need many things to go your way to win with that kind of scoring defense. We will get to enjoy plenty of wins playing in that kind of sandbox.

The program continues to bend towards consistently solid football, so wins should follow. Watching a breakout performance by a QB is fun, but I remember Steele Jantz and Sam Richardson having big breakout games, too. Its easier to do when the defense hasn't seen you on tape.

The big challenge will be against West Virginia, a quality team with a week to prepare. Cross your fingers the home team has the better scheme and execution.

Muddled

The OL- whoof. Any running play that requires a pull or trap is a guaranteed loss of yardage, as blockers can't block their man long enough for the play to develop. Best to stick with step-and-hit until the skill or the personell improves.

The defense remains solid, and it's fun to see so many different numbers getting snaps during the game. The depth will come in handy.

We shouldn't complain about a win, but it's in our nature. Red Zone failures will come back to bite our collective butts down the line. Field Goals won't beat TCU.

Close but still lacking

Hopefully this is the new normal.

When your team has the smallest budget in the Big 12, all you can ask is to play well enough to have a shot in the 4th.

The Cyclones have missed two chances in close games. They will win their share if the quality of play holds steady.

Standard

A quick review of the SUI-ISU series over the last decade:

2018- Can't move ball after first possession; hung around, lost by 10
2017- Score 41, gave up 44 to team that averaged 27 in the rest of their games
2016- Blowout
2015- Tied in 4th quarter, lose by 14
2014- The infamous "ice the kicker" win (ISU would go 2-10)
2013- Trailed most of game, late rally to lose by 7
2012- The 9-6 win in IC against an SUI team that went 4-8
2011- Bonkers 3OT 44-41 win over 7-6 SUI squad
2010- Blowout
2009- Blowout

Summary: 3 blowout losses, 4 hang-around-but-lose-anayway losses, 3 wins on the last play.

The last decade could be 0-10.

Given the football budgets of the two programs, 3-7 is about what one would expect out of Iowa State. But if the program expects to move to the middle of the Big 12 pack, they have to find a way to beat teams like SUI and Kansas State more than half the time. It's the next mountain to climb.

Hollywood

The best tale to tell today would be Coach Campbell returning to the scene of the most humiliating loss of his Iowa State tenure to win in commanding fashion, proving that the turnaround of Cyclone Football is complete.

But this ain't Hollywood.

SUI contains the ISU running game, forcing ISU to win with the pass. Mistakes are made, SUI gets too many short fields and wins 24-10.

Unknowns

Four minutes of football were not enough to get a feel for the 2018 Cyclones, even if the game did not count. Now the team will have to work out its first game issues in Iowa City. Super.

The fans of The Best Football Program Without A National Championship probably see a blowout win like Iowa State's last visit, and given the B12's performance last week, (Tech, Texas, The State of Kansas) who can blame them?

7-5

The CMJ staff sees a 7-5 year for the Cyclones in 2018.

Wins over South Dakota State, Akron, Tech, Kansas, Baylor, and two out of Okie State, West Virginia, Texas and K-State.

The defense will be solid again, but I'll believe the OL is ready to consistently run block when I see it. And it's hard to be +10 in turnover margin two years in a row.

The '17 squad was luckier than average than the Iowa State team, too. No major injuries, when one QB flaked out the backup turned out to be great, forcing a turnover when they really needed one, etc. Some of those things will revert to the mean this year.

But they should keep every game close, which will be fun, if frustrating. Enjoy the ride.

Big Fans

Obviously, Iowa State fans are going to be cheering like mad for Ohio State Football to go 12-0 and look good doing it.

Style points will matter. They can't beat Indiana by 3.

Star Treatment

Why would ESPN have a stat window of one of the players over the score in a basketball game? If you have to ask, the window isn't for you.

Trae Young is being given the NBA Star treatment by ESPN, because ESPN probably has data that viewers who don't normally watch college basketball are tuning into Oklahoma games to check in on Young in the same way they bounce around NBA games hoping to see someone drop 10 points in a few possesions. ESPN wants that casual viewer to see that Young is having a good night, and hang around for more.

I understand that a fan can feel slighted if a player for their team is having a better night than The Star, but its one of the many ways the company putting the game on TV will try to pay the bills.

I'm old enough to remember when not every game was on TV. This is worth it.

Patience

The second half of the football season and Prohm's track record with teams improving as the season rolls along should remind everyone that patience is rewarded in Ames.

Long term, both teams are trending in the right direction. Enjoy the right despite the bumps.

Petty

It is appropriate that Iowa State now plays Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down" at the 3rd quarter break, as it describes the attitude of the football program under Coach Campbell.

Given Iowa State's lack of both football budget and tradition, the CSJ staff has low expectations for Cyclone Football. All we ask is to get yourself within one score in the 4th, and find a way to win half of those games. So far this season they are 2-2 in those games, and the second half has been the better half for this team.

Don't back down.

Don't Blink

This football team has had plenty of moments to fold, to collapse, to blink.

The last three games, they have not.

On physical ability, this team scores above average for Iowa State football.

Schematically they have the right mix of matching players abilities to the jobs that needs doing.

But it's the mental stability of this group has been most remarkable. Press on in the face of adversity. Run your stuff. Find a way.

I don't recall an Iowa State football team this patient with itself. It's putting Cyclone fan in unknown territory, walking a new road. This may not be the fool's errand a few other season have been.

Enjoy the ride. We've waited a while.

Business

That's what a serious, focused football program should do.

A wet track and bad opponent deserved a vanilla offensive plan, and the offense looked it. But KU bumbled their way into the least impressive blowout you will ever see. The stats don't describe how much of a mismatch the game was.

The next four games- Tech, TCU, WVU, Okie State- are a serious upgrade in quality, and provide four opportunities to break through to the middle of the conference standings.

Being able to say maybe is a great change of pace.

Tradition

A typical Cyclone football team of the past would follow an epic win with an inexplicable loss.

The 1990 team followed their win in Norman with a blowout loss at home to Nebraska and a horrid loss on the road to Kansas State. The next year KSU went 7-4 and went to a bowl game, so that win was an early sign of progress for Snyder.

The great 2005 team allowed Baylor to break a 37 game B12 road losing streak in Ames.

I expect a long slog on a wet track against KU. Here's hoping we aren't too grumpy at the end.

Worst/Best

If the Oklahoma press is calling it "The worst loss in Sooner history", then it has to be the best win in Iowa State history.

Given the premise before kickoff, agreed.

Here's hoping it's not an outlier.

Just Good Enough To Not Get Blown Out

In Normal Times of Cyclone Football, Texas beats the Iowa States of the world 45-10.

Apparently we are not living in Normal Times, as Texas is ordinary and some believe Iowa State improved- which explains losing 17-7 and not 45-10.

Considering that Texas spending on football probably exceeds Iowa State spending on sports, keeping it interesting into the 4th quarter can be considered an achievement.

Progress can be odd sometimes.

Regardless, without a win against Iowa or Texas, the bowl math gets very difficult, and would be a triple-bank-shot of some kind.

Just keep grinding and hopefully the improvement becomes real.

Gap Closed

It was nice to push The Team From Out East to their limit for a change. The talent gap has closed, and the knowledge of what the plan is has clearly improved from 12 games ago.

But the Cyclones still found a way to lose a game they should have won.

Horseshoes and hand grenades is ISU's strength under Campbell. At some point they have to push through.

But it's more fun to be standing at the corner than looking for a corner ahead.

Measuring Sticks

The benefit of starting the season with the same opponents as last year is that it's easy to measure progress.

The solid win over UNI was a vast departure from 2016. Improvement.

CSJ staff still isn't convinced that the ISU defense can stop a quality running game, and they will see a quality running game this week.

CSJ also isn't convinced the offense can score against a quality defense, and they will see a quality defense this week.

CSJ thinks the Cyclones lose by 14. So it goes. You get what you pay for.

Somehow They Find Six

Clearly, the Cyclone's Bowl Cake will be baked in September.

Find 3 wins out of the first 4 and they are in good shape. Several winnable games out there against teams with question marks.

Football trended up from week 3 of 2016, and 2017 has plenty of yardsticks to measure if the trend is still positive.

There will be an upset along the way, and at least two "should have won that" losses. It's The Cyclone Way. But six wins will be found, and a bowl trip to perk up the holidays.

Review

The further away we get from basketball, the more I think we won't see a run like that again.

So entertaining, so maddening, so close to new heights.

It wasn't that they won so many games, it was how many they pulled out of the fire with ridiculous finishes. That's what made the 6 year run so remarkable.

Cherish it.

Hello Again

Welcome back to the randomly published blog. So many distractions-

Maddeningly Entertaining

I suspect the basketball season is going to be maddeningly entertaining. Every game will be a cliffhanger regardless of the quality of opponent. There will be as many thrilling upsets as head scratching clunkers (Exhibit A: Iowa City).

BYO Tums.

Constants

Sometimes you win (SJS, KU, Tech)

Sometimes you lose (UNI, Baylor, Okie State, KSU)

Sometime you just get beat (SUI, TCU, OU, WVU)

Get better winning the close ones and the Cyclones will be on to something.

That works

Trucking a team by 56 in record fashion, a team that beat you by 30+ the year before?

Maybe there is something to The Process people keep talking about.

Corner turned?

Big Finish

Quite the turnaround after a lousy first half. The key was the response once KU went up 24-16:

ISU: 10/80 TD
KU: 5/10 Punt
ISU: 5/70 TD
KU: 10/42 Downs
ISU: 13/42 FG
KU: 2/2 INT
ISU: 3/-14 End of game

That's how you finish. A needed change from the endings earlier in the season.

Forward.

Punching Above Their Weight

Our Cyclones are becoming The-Team-You-Don't-Want-To-Play, but their mistakes are keeping them from grabbing the wins they are close to earning.

ISU: 4 dropped passes, all would have been first downs
OU: 0 drops

ISU: At least 4 wild overthrows of open receivers, each would have been a first down or TD
OU: 0 overthrows

ISU: 3 3-and-outs
OU: 1 3-and-out

Those little differences were what won it for OU. Better talent, fewer mistakes.

The Horse Latitudes

Cyclone Football finds itself stuck in windless territory. Enough talent and skill to compete, not enough talent and skill and mental capacity to win. Danny Mac spent a decade in this space, with only a few wins to show for it. CPR had dozens of close calls, but never broke through for an extended period.

Now it's Campbell's turn to try and round the corner and get to more interesting territory.

Goals

Be decent at football before the next big conference realignment happens. Hoops doesn't carry the broadcast rights mail.

Expectations

The Process is trending positive faster than expected. Now comes the hard part.

Iowa State took a 14 point lead five times. Going up 21 would have won the game. Gaining a few first downs in the fourth might have won the game.

Campbell and staff now have to exercise the "find a way to lose" demons from the football team pshyche, and it won't give up easily. Pulling that off will be their toughest coaching job.

The good news is that the team and fans now know they have a punchers chance in every game. Wins must follow.