Back to formula

The win against Cincy fit the formula when Iowa State wins. 

After the opening TD, Cincy went:

4 plays/4 yards Punt

8/59 FG

3/7 Punt

6/7 Punt

3/0 Punt

1/-2 End of half

8/62 Fumble

4/18 Punt

All those punts game the ISU offense a chance to find its legs. They found their rhythm when the game needed to be won and delivered two beautiful drives.

15/68 7:33 and a nifty improve on a high snap by Rocco, followed by 7/71 (!) and 27 yard TD on 4th down to close the game out.

Watching both units close the game properly was fun, and keeps the door open for bigger opportunities the next two weeks.

Good job, everyone. 

Burnt

The game against KU at Arrowhead started well.

A 99 yard drive for a TD on the first possession had so many aspects that last weeks offensive performance did not. Plays of 4, 9, 10, 15, (15PI),  15, 6 & 27 got our hopes up.

The the KU offense, brilliantly designed, put on a 28-3 run while making the defense look silly. Lots of uncovered receivers, running plays with little resistance, and soon KU was running downhill. 

The offense perked up in the second half to close the gap, but that was clearly the worst play of the season against a team that had been first class in finding ways to lose.

Perhaps injuries are catching up to the Cyclones, and too many youngsters are carrying too big of a load. Perhaps there is too much tape on the teams strengths and weaknesses. 

Perhaps ISU's luck has just run out. 

Execution

The offense has one goal across the last four games: score touchdowns. 

Finding only two TDs after generating nine (9!) trips past the opponent’s 35 will get you beat every time. 

Some are mad at the Looney Tunes final play- but game was lost in the second and third quarters. Across 6 possessions Tech managed only 21 yards, but State only scored 10 points. They left the door wide open.

ISU’s defense deserved to win; the offense did not. 

A repeat at Arrowhead will result in an even bigger loss. Tighten up, fellas. 

Comparisons

The football world is already greasing the skids to ensure the B12 only receives one bid to the football playoffs.

"The B12 is a weak league" is the leading story, echoed especially loudly by our GoBla neighbors who support the Team Out East (TOE). A little perspective:

Using the Massey Ratings site, we can see rankings for entire conferences as a whole.

SEC 8.36

Big 10 8.10

Big 12 7.95

ACC 7.84

So the B10 is closer to the B12 than the SEC, and the B12 is closer to the ACC than the B10.

But here are the power rankings for the B10 West/Leaders in the past:

2023- 7.58

2022- 7.76

2021- 7.96

2020- 7.89

2019- 7.71

2018- 7.73

2017- 7.85

2016- 7.09

2015- 7.35

2014- 7.07

2013- 6.97

2012- 7.12

2011- 6.94

To summarize: in 13 seasons of the B10 West, 1 year that group had the same rating as the current B12. All the others were worse, often by a bunch.

End of math lesson.

Percentages

Leaving Jack Trice made sense. UCF had just picked up a first down at midfield with only 2:10 left on the clock. The Golden Knights led 35-30. They had a 99% win probability. It made sense to go and get ahead of 61,498 others who would soon be walking to their cars.

CSJ staff has witnessed probably a couple hundred Cyclone games in Trice, but few had as wild an ending as the one the smart people getting to their cars early missed. That ending may be the craziest in Trice history, considering the stakes. Bedlam ensued. But the run continues.

Now a bye week for everyone to pause and take a breath. The last four games are harder on paper than the previous four, but the Cyclones have found different ways to win each game. They are determined problem solvers.

Improved health, especially on defense, may be the ingredient to carry our walk through The Undiscovered Country to the other side.

Enjoy the ride, everyone.

Steady Trip to Morgantown

Every expert was pointing to Iowa State's trip to Morgantown as a trap game, the point where the undefeated run comes to an end. The were right- night game, coming off a big win, theme night with sweet uniforms, all of it.

Iowa State didn't care.

After a TD on the initial drive, WVU's last 7 drives earned 10 points, 7 which came in garbage time.

For the game, the ISU defense gave up 2 points per possession, while the offense generated 3.1. Yes, please.

We repeat ourselves, but the defense will be the key down the stretch. Central Florida has the best rushing offense in the league. (WVU, which had everyone terrified, is fifth.) This game, the newest Big Game, may be won on that side of the ledger.

The crazies Iowa State stat: Opponents have only had 10 trips to the Red Zone on the ISU defense, and 3 of those trips were in Iowa City. 5 other games, 7 Red Zone trips. Crazy.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Patience

Fans grew restless during the first quarter of the Baylor game, as the Death-Penalty-Dodgers score TD's on their first two possessions. CSJ staff tried to reassure their neighbors that its an unfortunate part of the process- learning what the opponent wants to do, where they think the have an advantage, and then eliminating that path.

The Baylor box score shows the results. After the first two possessions, the DPD's drives were this:

5-16 punt

5-13 punt

8-40 downs

7-65 TD

10-55 INT

3-9 punt

3-6 punt

3-8 punt

44 plays, 212 yards, 4.8 ypp; 13 rushes, 43 yards, 3.3 ypr. 

Once the defense adjusted, Baylor couldn't run effectively, and only earned 7 points on 8 possessions. That'll do.

Granted, a team won't always be able to dig themselves out of a 14-0 hole. Our suspicion is that when the staff believes they are better than the opponent, the first few possessions will be approached cautiously to feel the other team out. Then it go time.

One rake missed. Enjoy the ride.

Don’t step on the rakes

Looking forward, the Cyclones have lots of potential losses ahead if anything other than an A Game is played. 

Baylor has a solid defense, but their offense has been unremarkable. Can ISU keep them off the board? Will the Bears rally around their coach? Or will they fall apart if they fall behind by 14?

Here are the defensive/offensive rankings for the rest of the year:

BU 28/87

WV 106/59

UCF 53/4

TT 124/15

KU 57/68

CN 104/16

UT 20/57

KS 55/43

These numbers will change as we move forward, but if our Cyclones have a memorable season it come from the performance of the defense. 

Here’s hoping. 

Changes

 Four games, four scenarios that Cyclone football often messes up, yet four wins on the board.

This team has made winning plays in each game, but has also avoided the deadly mistake. This is- fun? Yes, fun.

This week ISU welcomes a struggling Baylor program. Two years ago, Baylor was the defending league champs, who pushed the Cyclones around in a wasn’t-as-close-as-the-margin 7 point win. 

Winning plays while avoiding killer mistakes is a great combination. A win will mean 5-0 for the first time since 1980. According to this site that team finished 6-5. Ooof.

If you are dreaming big, the best start ever was 1938 at 7-0, but Denver, Luther, Marquette and Drake were on the schedule.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Struggles

A walk through Houston's box scores is a head scratcher.

The Cougars had every opportunity to win in Norman, but couldn't. Run. The. Ball. Their drive chart? 

12-63 FG

3-8 Punt

3-1 Punt

5-17 Punt

3-9 Punt

6-55 FG

4-75 TD

12-20 Punt

4 (-4) INT

7-24 Punt

1 (-1) Safety

5-42 End of game

Houston turns around and blows out Rice. Nice rebound.

They then go to Cincinnati has does this:

3-0 INT

9-13 Punt

10-77 FGA

3 (-2) Punt

6-21 Punt

5-64 Fumble

10-30 Downs

6-45 Fumble

3-0 Punt

Ouch.

On the flip side, the 'Natti was the picture of efficiency:

3-7 Punt

3-45 TD

4-80 TD

12-80 TD

6-25 FG

1-0 Half

8-89 TD

3 (-3) Punt

15-52 FG

4-11 Punt

I don't know which Houston defense we will see Saturday- the one from Norman and Rice, or the one from UNLV and Cincy- but I suspect the Iowa State defense will be able to disrupt the Houston offense. Just do your jobs, get some points on the board, and win a football game.

 

The surprise was the lack of a surprise

 Saturday was a fun day at Trice, but it was also a touch disorienting.

We have all seen Cyclone teams find ways to keep a September game against a Mid-Major opponent close, and even gift-wrap a loss for the fan base. We expect white-knuckle afternoons.

The win over Arkansas State was anything but dramatic. Advantages were pressed, bench players got extra reps, and the game was clearly in hand at 14-0 in the first quarter.

Watching an efficient blowout win was fun, especially against an opponent that has given other teams difficulties (cough*Michigan*cough). Now that we have entered the Could Win Any Game/Could Lose Any Game portion of the schedule, it was exciting to watch a game that could have been a roller coaster turn into a entertaining show instead.

The other side of the collapse

As a fan base that as been on the losing side of second half collapses, it's great to be on the winning side of one. Pulling it off in Iowa City is a nice touch.

Winning 4 of 6 at Kinnick is also insane, considering ISU has lost every El Assico in Ames since 2011. Hate it when that happens.

Enjoy your glass of GoBla tears.

The Usual

 Iowa State will outgain and outplay SUI, but will make a creative mistake that will hand the game to the GoBlas. 

Just like every year. 

16-13 SUI. 

Looks

 New B12 member Arizona State looked good in Gold/Maroon/Gold against Wyoming:

Minnesota had fun with a Maroon/Gold/Maroon combo:

Southern Cal won in their always classic kit:

Iowa State broke out new jerseys to go with their favorite white pants:

Wait, we are being told that's Rutgers. Here's Iowa State:

Sorry, we saw Red/White and just assumed. Is this Iowa State?

Still can't tell the difference, but we are stuck with the Rutgers-inspired Red/White/Black scheme for the next 5 years.

A missed opportunity.

Steps

Another season opener, another underwhelming result, another typical September game for the CMC regime.

The start couldn't have been better. Two deep balls against a defence that was stacking the box is to be applauded. Bravo.

The offense was a little herky-jerky, but we suspect UND was determined not to lose the game on the ground. The offensive line isn't ready to win situations like that.

But enough questions remain on defense and the offensive line to limit the upside of this group. A solid but uninspiring squad. 7 wins is still our guess.

It's wild that CMC has 5 wins against OU and Texa$ combined, but only 1 against the GoBlas.

Our Cyclone nutcup stands ready to help witness another new and awful way to lose to SUI. Have plenty of your favorite beverage on stand by. It will be needed.

Visions

 2024 Iowa State football forecast:

Probable wins: North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, Cincy

Probable losses: Utah, Kansas, Kansas State

Guaranteed self-inflicted loss: SUI

Random coulda-shoulda-won-but-didn't-play-well loss: Pick one from: West Virginia, Central Florida, Tech.

That brings us to 7-5. We hope its better than that, but this program still has wiiiiiide variance between its best and worst games. Nothing can be assumed. More than 3 wins that aren't white-knuckle rides to the end would be a surprise.

Any playoff talk is madness without an 8-0 start. Save your breath. Enjoy the ride.

Best Trice Wins Seen In Person

A warm summer night is the perfect time to jump on the Cyclone Twitter trending topic: 5 Best Jack Trice Games you saw in person.

Here is ours in order of witness:

1981 Iowa State 23 SUI 12 

Iowa's first game in Ames since 1934. (When the series resumed in 1977, SUI required the Cyclones to drive to Iowa City four times before they would come to Ames. Jerks.) Ames was electric. Hillside seats on the NW corner were Nirvana for a group of teenage Cyclone fans. A core memory.

1992 Iowa State 19 Nebraska 10 (aka the Marv Seiler Game) 

The unexpected wins are the most fun. An 8-1 Cornhusker team came to Ames on a roll, but couldn't get anything together against a pesky Cyclone defense. Marv only needed on big play to ice the win. You could hear the shock in Pete Taylor's voice on the radio call.

2005 Iowa State 23, SUI 3

An SUI squad ranked #8 came into Ames and almost got shut out by the Cyclones. The game essentially ended in the 2nd quarter when an GoBla QB concussed himself by tackling a safety after an INT. Perhaps ISU's most dominant win over SUI behind the 31-0 win in 1978. A fun day.

2017 Iowa State 14 TCU 7

A white-knuckle ride for the resurgent Cyclones over #4 TCU. 5-2, and on a 3 - game wining streak, the Cyclones went up 14-0 in the first half. TCU returned the 2nd half kickoff for a TD, but ISU held the Frogs to 157 yards and no points on their last 7 possessions, including 3 turnovers to seal the win. ISU broke a 7 game win streak for TCU, became bowl eligible in CMC's 2nd season, and moved into a tie for first place in the Big 12. It was a hug-random-strangers kind of win. The win in Norman wasn't a fluke.

2018 ISU 42 KSU 38

Down 17 with 12:27 left in the 4th, Brock Purdy led three scoring drives to end Bill Snyder's coaching career. The win tied ISU's biggest 4th quarter comeback win in it's history. While a win over #6 West Virginia a month earlier was a dominant win, sending Snyder out the way they did was more satisfying.

Missed opportunities

 The Gophers revamped their football uniforms for 2024, and they are a big upgrade:

Lots of Gold, no white numbers. Big improvement.

2023 Home look for reference:

Looking like a maroon Rutgers.

Mizzou continues to have the perfect set:

Full kits of both team colors, a white kit, lots of sharp helmets. Best of all, the stripes on the helmets, jerseys and pants all match. You can mix all three kits. Outstanding.

Our only complaint is the white numbers on the black jerseys, so the grade is only 95/100.

Iowa State, however, is going backwards.

"Hey, Nike- what's your stock look for this season? Great! And remove all the gold you can. We want to look as much like Rutgers as possible."

Aim kinda medium, folks. Kinda medium. Stock is fine.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Uniform chat on a silly day

 So. 

Athletics tweeted this image out on April Fool's Day:

It was part of this tweet:

We know, it's AFD, but let's play a long that it's real.

In our opinion, it's a step backwards.

If anything, it further relegates Gold to an accent color only. Are we headed back to the early McCarney era?

Basically cardinal and white. Very Cheifs-like. I'm told some schools have found big uniform success copying wining NFL programs, so I understand the urge.

If we are going to abandon Gold in the football program, so it goes. At least the sleeve stripes will seem intentional. The recent jersey stripes were just- there. If you saw them at all.

When you use Gold as a secondary color rather than an accent, you can do things like this beaut from 1979:

The gold numbers work with the pants, the cardinal helmets work with the jerseys. The road combo was great, too.

Bringing back Gold would put this back on the table:

Or this:

(Still the best ISU look in our lifetimes. Full Stop.)

Two great road looks, too.

For your consideration- Gold helmet, Cardinal jersey (in this example, maroon), Gold numbers, Gold pants:

Isn't that snappy?

I can hear someone yelling in the back: "The Paul Rhoads uniforms looked like USC!"

True.

But the Iowa State uniforms minus Gold look like Indiana.

And Rutgers.

Is that the look you are going for? Really?

Or shall we look like this? 

It's a simple choice. More Gold, not less.

Wins and Losses

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get beat.

We were impressed with the defensive effort from Illinois in the first half, which was uncharacteristic and never let Iowa State find a rhythm or get open looks. Even though the Cyclones cut the 10 point halftime lead to four early in the second half, the game never got closer than 2 points. Opportunities were missed, but Illinois kept making plays. Had they made a decent number of free throws, the game is never closer than 10. So it goes.

The season as a whole was a roaring success. A second place finish in the best league is a quality season. A fantastic run through the B12 tourney was a joy to watch. The standards for the program continue to be raised.

Now we wait to see how the roster shifts in the next three weeks, and look ahead to next season. 

2023-24 was a fantastic ride. Thanks everyone. 

A Habit of 16

 Twice in 3 years.

Fourth in a decade.

Six Iowa State coaches have gone to the Sweet 16. Otz is the only one to do it twice.

We are seeing the rare become common, be we shouldn’t assume this trip is ever to be expected. So many random things can get in the way.

Celebrate. Enjoy the ride. Even if it feels habit forming, you never know when it will return.

The view from the bottom of the hill

Our Cyclones went to Kansas City with a challenging draw- games against teams that had already beaten them. Yet they found a way to win each game comfortably.

Now they face a trip to Omaha with a challenging draw. (A faceplant against Drake would be an appropriate retribution for refusing to play Drake and Northern Iowa.) The draw is what makes the tournament fun- and it can't be truly evaluated beforehand, only after. But if the path is up the rough side of the mountain, so be it.

We have seen our Cyclones win several games even when the offense seemed lost, tired, distracted. Those are good experiences to have in one's pocket, to refer to when you find yourself in a challenging moment. Find a way, and play whoever is next.

Go drink Omaha out of beer.

Closers

A team that pulls a game out of the fire late might have gotten lucky.

The team that finds a way, night after night, might be good.

For the record, the CSJ staff loves the style of basketball that BYU plays. It is the perfect antidote to what Iowa State wants to do on defense. As long as they don’t give the ball away early in the possession, they should find an open 3 or a back cut into the lane. It’s beautiful basketball, and will be a challenge for the Cyclones every night out.

The last 15 minutes were a clinic of defensive adjustments and effort, and wrapped the first perfect home slate since Tinsley was at point. Been a while- but only because of what this team does on defense.

Here’s hoping they continue closing.

Levels

While it was often ugly to watch, our Cyclones played high level basketball in Houston Monday night.

The difficult start could have frazzled the team and resulted in a blowout. Instead, they scored 1.13 points per possession against the best defense in basket across the final 30 minutes. 

Unlike last season, the Cyclones will be able to score on just about every team in the tournament. While the trip to Houston didn’t deliver a win, the Cyclones came home with the confidence that they are ready for any stage.

Game On.

Data

The stats nerds are telling us that teams that make deep runs in March do things that are similar to the things that Iowa State does on the court.

It’s not that they are winning games- it’s that they are winning games by 10, and keeping the opponent at arms length for long stretches. Our Cyclone eyes aren’t used to seeing that.

Lots of doors are still open for this team. Enjoy the ride- it’s been a long wait. 

Difficulty

The average college basketball fan doesn’t realize the difficulty of maintaining a first half lead. A lot can happen in the final 50 or 60 possessions. 

Iowa State answered each of TCU’s runs today, and actually built the lead when Lipsey sat for 10 minutes in the first half. That’s a real luxury. 

A solid home win over a solid Big 12 team. Take care of business when you can.

Capacity

 It appears that when the Cyclones are playing well they can play very, very well, and on the road to boot.

The first 30ish minutes of the game in Austin speaks to upside Iowa State basketball hasn’t had in a while. It’s fun to witness again. 

I love a team that can run a simple pick and roll in crunch time for a dunk. That’s a good tool for the toolbox.

Doors are still open for this team. Here’s hoping we can walk through several of them. 

Freebies

 Saturday’s loss in Waco was a wild one- big offensive runs, a coach gets ejected, an angry crowd, both teams making plays and terrible mistakes, and a buzzer beater that doesn’t. But the game swung on the freebies.

With a final result that was wafer-thin, any little play could have been the difference. 11 missed free thrown are the obvious target, but so are a half-dozen missed inside shots that were rushed and errant passes that came from trying to do too much.

Now on to Austin, where a similar challenge awaits. One can never have too many tiebreakers in their pocket.

Fun With Camera Angles

So- Baylor opened a new gym this season! And lots of fans have lots of comments and about the camera angles from the center court position. The angle is- steep:

For comparison, notice where the hoop is compared to the old gym Baylor used:

The old gym camera angles placed the hoop on the bench, which is a more 'modern' placement. compare to Hilton:

The camera is lower and closer to the court than Baylor's old place, but the hoop is on the bench and further from the baseline.

Baylor's new angle is actually closer to Phog Allen than Hilton:

Similar to Cameron Indoor, too:

But it has a ways to go to be the angle at Gallagher-Iba before it was expanded in 2000:

(That's Fred Hoiberg guarding at the top of the key. Good times.)

Notice how close the hoop is to the edge of the lane! The game camera had to zoom out when play came to mid-court, the zoom in again at either end. You can watch the whole second half HERE.

Here is the current angle from GIA:

The angle is flatter than the old configuration, (similar to Cameron), and I suspect more in line with "normal".

Below is what I consider the most ridiculous camera angle I've seen in a game- Indiana's Assembly Hall in the 1980's:

The camera was even horizontally with the hoop! While it had a fun "sitting in the 10th row" feel, players often got clustered together visually (or blocked by a ref, as in the above example).

Above is the current camera angle. It's a bit on the steep side, but you can see what's going on.

To review- Baylor's angle is weird to modern eyes because it is closer to how things used to be. Revel in the retro feel!

Key Wins Equal Key Week

 Iowa State rode Hilton to two wins over KSU and KU, which keeps doors open for opportunity later in the year.

The Cyclones are still in play for: 

- A Regular Season Big 12 Championship, which they haven't won since 2001.

- A double buy in the now 14-team Big 12 Tournament. Fresh legs on Thursday.

- A friendly seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State is +1 in the old Tim Floyd rankings. 

With roadies to Baylor and Texa$ this week, they are playing with house money. An 0-2 week isn't a deal-breaker, but even one win keeps all of the above doors open. 

Go be great.

Double Dingers

Back-to-back nights of wild basketball wins in Hilton reminds us how fun Iowa State basketball can be on cold, snowy winter nights.

#2 Houston? Welcome to the Big 12. 

Ranked West Virginia with a new coach and roster? No lead is safe when the 3s start falling.

Buckle up everyone. This could be great ride.

Gameplans

Unfortunately, our concerns were correct.

The lesson from the last 9 games for the offense was to pass first, then run after the defense starts retreating to cover receivers. 

But watching Memphis tape for three weeks convinced the offensive staff they could run when and where they wanted. They were quite incorrect.

A more aggressive, pass first plan may have allowed Rocco Brecht to throw for 700 yards and ISU probably finds a way to win. The dream of an above average offensive line that can run the ball still eludes the Cyclones.

Credit to Memphis- they saw a game against a Power 5 team as the opportunity that it was and maximized it. They would be a fun member of whatever league Iowa State ends up in after the next round of conference realignment. 

The city of Memphis is still the best bowl destination for Cyclone fans despite the weather. 90 percent of the fan base can drive in, hotels are reasonable, and everyone can congregate on Beale Street. Give us game day weather that isn't in the 30's and its perfect.

Given where we were emotionally on September 17th, this season was an unqualified success.

On to basketball.