Randomness

I recently read an analysis of college football victory margins (but of course can't link to the original article) that suggested that good teams win lots of games by a high percentage of "definitive wins", or wins by 8 points or more. Bad teams lose a lot of games by 8 points or more. Seems obvious, no?

The kicker is that great teams only win "close games"- 7 points or fewer- at a 54% clip.

Close games come down to random events and luck. The fumble bounces towards the offensive player rather than the defensive player. A safety falls down covering a slant and gives up a TD. Field Goals are pushed Wide Right. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Which brings us to Iowa State's loss to Washington State in the Alamo Bowl. Wazzou only had the ball inside the ISU 45 4 times- and all 4 possessions resulted in a TD. Iowa State crossed WSU's 45 8 times, but only came away with 3 TD's.

Game. Over.

Why the failures inside the 45? 8 false starts, mostly on the plus side of the field. One INT trying to hit a covered receiver. A FG try off the upright. One drive stalled at the WS 38, resulting in a punt. A FG from the 6. Any of those drives hit the end zone and the failed 2-point conversion may not matter.

When the game is close, random events that might not normally matter cast a longer shadow. Even great teams can't avoid random effects. A two-score margin in the 4th is important.

The Alamo Bowl was a bigger stage for our Cyclones, and the offense, especially the line, wasn't ready for it. But you only learn by being there.

Stragetory

The CSJ staff were impressed with the Drake staff and players Saturday. Playing in the worst field conditions we can recall, Drake developed a solid offensive plan after the second possession, and used it to put themselves in a spot to win the game. When players can't cut or really push off, whatever speed and strength advantage a team has disappears. Drake took advantage.

Our Cyclones, however, appeared to use the same game plan they had run the week before, assuming they could manage despite not being able to cut.  Not so much.

Changes were made in the fourth to avoid what would have arguably been the biggest upset in college football history, and at the end of the day a win is a win.  The Russian judge still hated it.

Either the staff didn't adjust their game plan to fit conditions, or they did adjust and little of it worked. I'm not sure which was more worrisome.

Perhaps they Cyclones effort and focus would have been higher if that had been a conference game. We know that the next time ISU is asked to play in the slop we will be holding our collective breaths.

14

Fourteen years of random thoughts about Cyclone sports. I'm afraid to count how many coaches I have mentioned.

Thanks for reading- it's hopefully worth what you have paid for it.

Fitting

There was only one proper way to end a losing streak against an opponent that was full of missteps, errors and anguish: by delivering some anguish of your own.

Any Cyclone fan watching that game assumed it was over down 17 with 12:30 left in the 4th. The computers put KSU's win percentage at 98%, which might have been too low.

And yet- they found a way to win, as unlikely as that win was. The crew in purple got the long, slow trip home to ponder what if, and what's next.

Progress isn't linear, but I like the trend.

Playoff Hockey

It's hard to explain the difference between regular-season hockey and playoff hockey, but you know it when you see it. It is something you can't prepare for; you have to experience it first hand.

The Cyclones got that first-hand experience Saturday night in Austin. A talented team playing for a Championship berth took the heads off another team that wasn't ready for the moment.

I suspect the next time this team has a similar opportunity the outcome will be different. It may not result in a victory, but the game won't be over in the first 10 minutes.

Saturday's game against will teach us a lot about the mental progress of the program. Here's hoping they exorcise the K-State ghost from their system.

Uncharted Waters

Another workman-like win, another new opportunity.

By dispatching the Baylor "Lack-of-institutional-control" Bears, Iowa State has sailed further into unknown waters for both the football team and the fan base.

Savor the moment and the possibilities.

Ames has been playing football since 1892, and hasn't won a conference title since winning the Missouri Valley in 1911 and 1912. To still have a chance to play for a title in mid-November is remarkable.

In 2013 the Cyclones gave up 71 points to Baylor. In 2016 Baylor scored 45 in Ames, a game ISU should have won. Yet Baylor has only scored 27 points in the last two games combined. The progress is obvious.

Enjoy the moment, and hope that Texas is distracted this week.

Keep it simple, stupid

You learn a lot by looking a teams at their extremes. Most look at how a team performs against top flight competition. I also look at games when the team is a big favorite.

Aside from Butler's two ridiculous TD catches in the first half, there was little flash in Iowa State's 27-3 win over Kansas. Once up two scores, there were lots of running plays and outside screens, but only a few attempts at pushing the ball down the field. Three of those attempts in the fourth led to sacks, including the one time KU blitzed. It was minimalist, time-possession ball on offense, which should be a window into how Coach Campbell likes things. An Art Briles Baylor team would have tried to hang 80 in Lawrence; ISU was happy with 27.

That's doesn't mean Campbell was casual about scoring. The First-and-Goal possessions that led to short field goals peeved him, according to the replays. He still wants to maximize the opportunities that the team gets. But a 12-play, 8:00 drive is preferred to a 3 play, :55 drive every time.

The defense adjusted in the second half to close down the KU running game (~25 yards in the half) and were content to play prevent for multiple drives. CSJ staff counted 11 plays in the Red Zone for KU in the 4th- and they came away with zero points. KU's best shot at scoring came in the 1st on a broken coverage, and the receiver flat out dropped a TD at the ISU 5. So goes their season. KU's field goal was the result of a drive that only got to the ISU 29. Stout when it mattered.

Yes, 100+ passing yards in quarter is concerning, but it was garbage time against the prevent. Scoreboard matters.

Which brings up the aforementioned Bears. They are certainly capable of winning in Ames if the Cyclones are not on point, but the performance in Lawrence suggests that the staff and team can maintain focus when it is required.

Grinders

It was refreshing to watch our Cyclones find a way to win a game they would have lost only two years ago.

Progress is fun.

The next order of business is beating the three conference teams left on the schedule that the metrics say are not as good as Iowa State. Take care of business as the old saying goes.

Never the New Normal

The turnaround over the last 24 games has been so dramatic- from slumpbuster to The Team That Kills Title Dreams- it's a little hard to comprehend that beating Top 10 teams may no longer be an outlier, an unusual event, for fans of Iowa State.

Even as each win grows in surprising scale- this time tripling WVU in yardage and winning by 16 in a game that could have been won by 30- Cyclone fan never forgets to act surprised, because each giant win is new to the consciousness.

Hopefully, regardless of how many more crazy wins are in the program's future, the fan base will embrace each as if it's the first one.

Progress

Saturday proved progress both in a week-to-week sense and in the narrative arc of the Campbell tenure.

Iowa State should have beaten the Cowboys the last three seasons, but Saturday had the moxie to take a lead after a bad start, and then to respond each time OSU closed to within a score. They broke through that mental wall.

In 2014, TCU blasted Iowa State 55-3 on their way to a 12-1 season. They should have been in the playoff, while our Cyclones surrendered 466 points in that season. (In comparison, TCU gave up only 247 that year.)

The last two years, TCU has scored 21 points total against ISU. You don't need many things to go your way to win with that kind of scoring defense. We will get to enjoy plenty of wins playing in that kind of sandbox.

The program continues to bend towards consistently solid football, so wins should follow. Watching a breakout performance by a QB is fun, but I remember Steele Jantz and Sam Richardson having big breakout games, too. Its easier to do when the defense hasn't seen you on tape.

The big challenge will be against West Virginia, a quality team with a week to prepare. Cross your fingers the home team has the better scheme and execution.

Muddled

The OL- whoof. Any running play that requires a pull or trap is a guaranteed loss of yardage, as blockers can't block their man long enough for the play to develop. Best to stick with step-and-hit until the skill or the personell improves.

The defense remains solid, and it's fun to see so many different numbers getting snaps during the game. The depth will come in handy.

We shouldn't complain about a win, but it's in our nature. Red Zone failures will come back to bite our collective butts down the line. Field Goals won't beat TCU.

Close but still lacking

Hopefully this is the new normal.

When your team has the smallest budget in the Big 12, all you can ask is to play well enough to have a shot in the 4th.

The Cyclones have missed two chances in close games. They will win their share if the quality of play holds steady.

Standard

A quick review of the SUI-ISU series over the last decade:

2018- Can't move ball after first possession; hung around, lost by 10
2017- Score 41, gave up 44 to team that averaged 27 in the rest of their games
2016- Blowout
2015- Tied in 4th quarter, lose by 14
2014- The infamous "ice the kicker" win (ISU would go 2-10)
2013- Trailed most of game, late rally to lose by 7
2012- The 9-6 win in IC against an SUI team that went 4-8
2011- Bonkers 3OT 44-41 win over 7-6 SUI squad
2010- Blowout
2009- Blowout

Summary: 3 blowout losses, 4 hang-around-but-lose-anayway losses, 3 wins on the last play.

The last decade could be 0-10.

Given the football budgets of the two programs, 3-7 is about what one would expect out of Iowa State. But if the program expects to move to the middle of the Big 12 pack, they have to find a way to beat teams like SUI and Kansas State more than half the time. It's the next mountain to climb.

Hollywood

The best tale to tell today would be Coach Campbell returning to the scene of the most humiliating loss of his Iowa State tenure to win in commanding fashion, proving that the turnaround of Cyclone Football is complete.

But this ain't Hollywood.

SUI contains the ISU running game, forcing ISU to win with the pass. Mistakes are made, SUI gets too many short fields and wins 24-10.

Unknowns

Four minutes of football were not enough to get a feel for the 2018 Cyclones, even if the game did not count. Now the team will have to work out its first game issues in Iowa City. Super.

The fans of The Best Football Program Without A National Championship probably see a blowout win like Iowa State's last visit, and given the B12's performance last week, (Tech, Texas, The State of Kansas) who can blame them?

7-5

The CMJ staff sees a 7-5 year for the Cyclones in 2018.

Wins over South Dakota State, Akron, Tech, Kansas, Baylor, and two out of Okie State, West Virginia, Texas and K-State.

The defense will be solid again, but I'll believe the OL is ready to consistently run block when I see it. And it's hard to be +10 in turnover margin two years in a row.

The '17 squad was luckier than average than the Iowa State team, too. No major injuries, when one QB flaked out the backup turned out to be great, forcing a turnover when they really needed one, etc. Some of those things will revert to the mean this year.

But they should keep every game close, which will be fun, if frustrating. Enjoy the ride.

Big Fans

Obviously, Iowa State fans are going to be cheering like mad for Ohio State Football to go 12-0 and look good doing it.

Style points will matter. They can't beat Indiana by 3.

Star Treatment

Why would ESPN have a stat window of one of the players over the score in a basketball game? If you have to ask, the window isn't for you.

Trae Young is being given the NBA Star treatment by ESPN, because ESPN probably has data that viewers who don't normally watch college basketball are tuning into Oklahoma games to check in on Young in the same way they bounce around NBA games hoping to see someone drop 10 points in a few possesions. ESPN wants that casual viewer to see that Young is having a good night, and hang around for more.

I understand that a fan can feel slighted if a player for their team is having a better night than The Star, but its one of the many ways the company putting the game on TV will try to pay the bills.

I'm old enough to remember when not every game was on TV. This is worth it.

Patience

The second half of the football season and Prohm's track record with teams improving as the season rolls along should remind everyone that patience is rewarded in Ames.

Long term, both teams are trending in the right direction. Enjoy the right despite the bumps.