Randomness

I recently read an analysis of college football victory margins (but of course can't link to the original article) that suggested that good teams win lots of games by a high percentage of "definitive wins", or wins by 8 points or more. Bad teams lose a lot of games by 8 points or more. Seems obvious, no?

The kicker is that great teams only win "close games"- 7 points or fewer- at a 54% clip.

Close games come down to random events and luck. The fumble bounces towards the offensive player rather than the defensive player. A safety falls down covering a slant and gives up a TD. Field Goals are pushed Wide Right. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Which brings us to Iowa State's loss to Washington State in the Alamo Bowl. Wazzou only had the ball inside the ISU 45 4 times- and all 4 possessions resulted in a TD. Iowa State crossed WSU's 45 8 times, but only came away with 3 TD's.

Game. Over.

Why the failures inside the 45? 8 false starts, mostly on the plus side of the field. One INT trying to hit a covered receiver. A FG try off the upright. One drive stalled at the WS 38, resulting in a punt. A FG from the 6. Any of those drives hit the end zone and the failed 2-point conversion may not matter.

When the game is close, random events that might not normally matter cast a longer shadow. Even great teams can't avoid random effects. A two-score margin in the 4th is important.

The Alamo Bowl was a bigger stage for our Cyclones, and the offense, especially the line, wasn't ready for it. But you only learn by being there.