Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Uniform chat on a silly day

 So. 

Athletics tweeted this image out on April Fool's Day:

It was part of this tweet:

We know, it's AFD, but let's play a long that it's real.

In our opinion, it's a step backwards.

If anything, it further relegates Gold to an accent color only. Are we headed back to the early McCarney era?

Basically cardinal and white. Very Cheifs-like. I'm told some schools have found big uniform success copying wining NFL programs, so I understand the urge.

If we are going to abandon Gold in the football program, so it goes. At least the sleeve stripes will seem intentional. The recent jersey stripes were just- there. If you saw them at all.

When you use Gold as a secondary color rather than an accent, you can do things like this beaut from 1979:

The gold numbers work with the pants, the cardinal helmets work with the jerseys. The road combo was great, too.

Bringing back Gold would put this back on the table:

Or this:

(Still the best ISU look in our lifetimes. Full Stop.)

Two great road looks, too.

For your consideration- Gold helmet, Cardinal jersey (in this example, maroon), Gold numbers, Gold pants:

Isn't that snappy?

I can hear someone yelling in the back: "The Paul Rhoads uniforms looked like USC!"

True.

But the Iowa State uniforms minus Gold look like Indiana.

And Rutgers.

Is that the look you are going for? Really?

Or shall we look like this? 

It's a simple choice. More Gold, not less.

Wins and Losses

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get beat.

We were impressed with the defensive effort from Illinois in the first half, which was uncharacteristic and never let Iowa State find a rhythm or get open looks. Even though the Cyclones cut the 10 point halftime lead to four early in the second half, the game never got closer than 2 points. Opportunities were missed, but Illinois kept making plays. Had they made a decent number of free throws, the game is never closer than 10. So it goes.

The season as a whole was a roaring success. A second place finish in the best league is a quality season. A fantastic run through the B12 tourney was a joy to watch. The standards for the program continue to be raised.

Now we wait to see how the roster shifts in the next three weeks, and look ahead to next season. 

2023-24 was a fantastic ride. Thanks everyone. 

A Habit of 16

 Twice in 3 years.

Fourth in a decade.

Six Iowa State coaches have gone to the Sweet 16. Otz is the only one to do it twice.

We are seeing the rare become common, be we shouldn’t assume this trip is ever to be expected. So many random things can get in the way.

Celebrate. Enjoy the ride. Even if it feels habit forming, you never know when it will return.

The view from the bottom of the hill

Our Cyclones went to Kansas City with a challenging draw- games against teams that had already beaten them. Yet they found a way to win each game comfortably.

Now they face a trip to Omaha with a challenging draw. (A faceplant against Drake would be an appropriate retribution for refusing to play Drake and Northern Iowa.) The draw is what makes the tournament fun- and it can't be truly evaluated beforehand, only after. But if the path is up the rough side of the mountain, so be it.

We have seen our Cyclones win several games even when the offense seemed lost, tired, distracted. Those are good experiences to have in one's pocket, to refer to when you find yourself in a challenging moment. Find a way, and play whoever is next.

Go drink Omaha out of beer.

Closers

A team that pulls a game out of the fire late might have gotten lucky.

The team that finds a way, night after night, might be good.

For the record, the CSJ staff loves the style of basketball that BYU plays. It is the perfect antidote to what Iowa State wants to do on defense. As long as they don’t give the ball away early in the possession, they should find an open 3 or a back cut into the lane. It’s beautiful basketball, and will be a challenge for the Cyclones every night out.

The last 15 minutes were a clinic of defensive adjustments and effort, and wrapped the first perfect home slate since Tinsley was at point. Been a while- but only because of what this team does on defense.

Here’s hoping they continue closing.

Levels

While it was often ugly to watch, our Cyclones played high level basketball in Houston Monday night.

The difficult start could have frazzled the team and resulted in a blowout. Instead, they scored 1.13 points per possession against the best defense in basket across the final 30 minutes. 

Unlike last season, the Cyclones will be able to score on just about every team in the tournament. While the trip to Houston didn’t deliver a win, the Cyclones came home with the confidence that they are ready for any stage.

Game On.

Data

The stats nerds are telling us that teams that make deep runs in March do things that are similar to the things that Iowa State does on the court.

It’s not that they are winning games- it’s that they are winning games by 10, and keeping the opponent at arms length for long stretches. Our Cyclone eyes aren’t used to seeing that.

Lots of doors are still open for this team. Enjoy the ride- it’s been a long wait. 

Difficulty

The average college basketball fan doesn’t realize the difficulty of maintaining a first half lead. A lot can happen in the final 50 or 60 possessions. 

Iowa State answered each of TCU’s runs today, and actually built the lead when Lipsey sat for 10 minutes in the first half. That’s a real luxury. 

A solid home win over a solid Big 12 team. Take care of business when you can.

Capacity

 It appears that when the Cyclones are playing well they can play very, very well, and on the road to boot.

The first 30ish minutes of the game in Austin speaks to upside Iowa State basketball hasn’t had in a while. It’s fun to witness again. 

I love a team that can run a simple pick and roll in crunch time for a dunk. That’s a good tool for the toolbox.

Doors are still open for this team. Here’s hoping we can walk through several of them. 

Freebies

 Saturday’s loss in Waco was a wild one- big offensive runs, a coach gets ejected, an angry crowd, both teams making plays and terrible mistakes, and a buzzer beater that doesn’t. But the game swung on the freebies.

With a final result that was wafer-thin, any little play could have been the difference. 11 missed free thrown are the obvious target, but so are a half-dozen missed inside shots that were rushed and errant passes that came from trying to do too much.

Now on to Austin, where a similar challenge awaits. One can never have too many tiebreakers in their pocket.

Fun With Camera Angles

So- Baylor opened a new gym this season! And lots of fans have lots of comments and about the camera angles from the center court position. The angle is- steep:

For comparison, notice where the hoop is compared to the old gym Baylor used:

The old gym camera angles placed the hoop on the bench, which is a more 'modern' placement. compare to Hilton:

The camera is lower and closer to the court than Baylor's old place, but the hoop is on the bench and further from the baseline.

Baylor's new angle is actually closer to Phog Allen than Hilton:

Similar to Cameron Indoor, too:

But it has a ways to go to be the angle at Gallagher-Iba before it was expanded in 2000:

(That's Fred Hoiberg guarding at the top of the key. Good times.)

Notice how close the hoop is to the edge of the lane! The game camera had to zoom out when play came to mid-court, the zoom in again at either end. You can watch the whole second half HERE.

Here is the current angle from GIA:

The angle is flatter than the old configuration, (similar to Cameron), and I suspect more in line with "normal".

Below is what I consider the most ridiculous camera angle I've seen in a game- Indiana's Assembly Hall in the 1980's:

The camera was even horizontally with the hoop! While it had a fun "sitting in the 10th row" feel, players often got clustered together visually (or blocked by a ref, as in the above example).

Above is the current camera angle. It's a bit on the steep side, but you can see what's going on.

To review- Baylor's angle is weird to modern eyes because it is closer to how things used to be. Revel in the retro feel!

Key Wins Equal Key Week

 Iowa State rode Hilton to two wins over KSU and KU, which keeps doors open for opportunity later in the year.

The Cyclones are still in play for: 

- A Regular Season Big 12 Championship, which they haven't won since 2001.

- A double buy in the now 14-team Big 12 Tournament. Fresh legs on Thursday.

- A friendly seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State is +1 in the old Tim Floyd rankings. 

With roadies to Baylor and Texa$ this week, they are playing with house money. An 0-2 week isn't a deal-breaker, but even one win keeps all of the above doors open. 

Go be great.

Double Dingers

Back-to-back nights of wild basketball wins in Hilton reminds us how fun Iowa State basketball can be on cold, snowy winter nights.

#2 Houston? Welcome to the Big 12. 

Ranked West Virginia with a new coach and roster? No lead is safe when the 3s start falling.

Buckle up everyone. This could be great ride.

Gameplans

Unfortunately, our concerns were correct.

The lesson from the last 9 games for the offense was to pass first, then run after the defense starts retreating to cover receivers. 

But watching Memphis tape for three weeks convinced the offensive staff they could run when and where they wanted. They were quite incorrect.

A more aggressive, pass first plan may have allowed Rocco Brecht to throw for 700 yards and ISU probably finds a way to win. The dream of an above average offensive line that can run the ball still eludes the Cyclones.

Credit to Memphis- they saw a game against a Power 5 team as the opportunity that it was and maximized it. They would be a fun member of whatever league Iowa State ends up in after the next round of conference realignment. 

The city of Memphis is still the best bowl destination for Cyclone fans despite the weather. 90 percent of the fan base can drive in, hotels are reasonable, and everyone can congregate on Beale Street. Give us game day weather that isn't in the 30's and its perfect.

Given where we were emotionally on September 17th, this season was an unqualified success.

On to basketball.