The Iowa Factor

If the CSJ staff were betting types, money could be made by simply betting on the teams that Iowa avoids in their conference schedule.

Since the Big TenEleven went to the "Miss Two" schedule in 1993, two conference teams are off the schedule of each conference team. Those teams come on and off in pairs, so each team misses a home and home with themissing opponent.

Since that schedule was begun, the teams Iowa has missed have gone to bowl games at a much higher rate than the conference as a whole, 70% to 59%.

According to JHowell's excellent site, since 1993 Big TenEleven teams have made 78 bowl appearances out of a possible 132 seasons (11 teams x 12 seasons) for a 59% appearance rate. Of the 24 teams Iowa hasn't played in that span, 17 have earned bowl bids, or 70%. 2004 was the first year that the streak was broken, as neither Nothwestern or Indiana went bowling- although at 6-6, NW was on the cusp. In fact, in 6 of those seasons both teams Iowa missed went to bowl games ('93- WI OSU; '94 WI OSU; '97 MSU PSU; '99 MI PU; '00 MI PU; '01 IL OSU).

The case can be made that Iowa dodged possible losses due to the luck of the scheduling draw. In several of those years ('93, '97, '01 ) playing one or both bowl-earning teams missing from their schedules could have knocked Iowa from bowl contention.

Interestingly, only the '03 Northwestern squad would have been bounced from a bowl with a loss to an Iowa team they didn't play. The other 16 Iowa-dodgers had wins to spare, meaning Iowa gained more from this schedule anomoly than the teams they missed.

Who to like in 2005? Michigan State and Penn State, both of whom have jumped out 4-0 and 1-0 in the Big TenEleven. iowa dodges two more bullets, while getting Indiana and Northwestern back on their docket. Imagine that.

Peterclone