Monday, March 07, 2005

fact or fiction from the NCAA committee

There are some interesting situations locally that will show whether the NCAA is walking the walk they work so hard to talk.

The committee has long stated that factors in At-Large selections to the NCAA tournament include but are not limited to: Overall record, conference record, conference tournament performance, stregnth of schedule, road wins, record in last 10 games, record versus other tourney teams, best win/worst loss, and the RPI.

Let's look at how ISU and Iowa fare, since many of their fans think both deserve bids.

ISU, whose RPI is a releatively low 63, thinks it has earned a bid with a 9-7 conference record, and most importantly, a 9-2 run down the stretch, which included wins at Texas and Kansas, who will both earn bids.

ISU's only knocks are the start they had to the season, which included losses at Xavier, UNI, Missouri and at home to Colorado, which led to that low RPI. 9-7 in a good conference should get one in, and the Last 10 finish shows they are peaking at the right time. They should be in.

Iowa, on the other hand, has only a few things in it's favor: a better RPI at 54, and impressive early season wins over Texas, Louisville and Texas Tech, all who are in the tourney.

Iowa's downside is longer. A 7-9 record in a weak league is the first stumbling block. A loss at home to #114 Northwestern is the second. No quality road wins is third. The loss of Pierce is the foursth, because it essentially wipes those early season wins off the board for the committee. They are 5-5 down the stretch, with only a home win over Ohio State worth mentioning. On paper, they appear out.

Iowa appears even more out when you compare another team on the bubble from the Big 1011: Indiana. The RPI is only #69, and they are 15-12. But they went 10-6 in Big 1011 play. But their SOS is 18.

In the end, the committee has long championed confernce play as the most important factor, with last 10 a strong second. ISU should be in, early season be damned. If Iowa somehow gets in, and Indiana doesn't, the committee is playing by an unpublished set of rules.

Peterclone

1 comment:

Ryan said...

I agree that Iowa State has the better resume, but I still think Iowa compares favorably to a lot of schools that are being talked about as bubble teams and getting picked by pundits (Maryland, NC State, West Virginia, to name a few).

By the way, the loss to Northwestern was on the road.