72 Hours

Cyclone fans just exited the most dramatic 72 hours of their fandom.

Wednesday rumors of Penn State interest in Campbell accelerated on Thursday, then when nuclear on Friday as Matt and his staff went into radio silence. By Friday night it was done, and a successor named before CMC had even left the building, literally.

It was a rapid spin from "Why would he want that job?" to "Crap, he took that job."

A gathering we attended Friday night was a wake while awaiting the time of death. The introduction of Jimmy was a green shoot among the sadness.

Basketball brought joy to the somber fan base. The second half demolition of #1 Purdue at Mackey Arena was amazing to watch: A 4 point halftime lead was converted into a 46-27 blowout half. 59% from the field, 7-12 from 3. Winning most of the 50/50 balls, out-rebounding taller, beefier players. Defense that kept Purdue from ever finding a rhythm.

The basketball ceiling is unlimited with that level of defense and shooting. Hopefully the Cyclones can catch some breaks to balance the near term football prospects, which will be a rebuild at best.

Celebrate every win, as you don't knwo how long the good times are going to last. 

Classic Heacock

A cool, windy day in Stillwater. An opponent that is on a 17 game B12 losing streak. Less than 15K semi-interested fans in the stands. But the OSU QB was finding some success throwing the ball, and led a 14-play TD drive just before halftime. A 10-7 lead for Iowa State coming out of halftime.

What does the defense do? Give up 2 field goals and give the offense time to gel. Which is what they do in the second half almost every week. 

OSU's second half:

3-8 punt

6-17 punt

4-3 FG (stated at the ISU 14!)

5-20 INT

3-5 punt

9-33 FG

Up 17-7, ISU turned up the heat and got three key sacks that blew up possessions. Closers.

If you are playing the percentages, the Heacock defense is a safe bet.

Making Shots

Three solid wins in Vegas for different reasons.

Outworked a physical St. John's team to win by one. They shots fell when they needed to fall.

Disrupted a Creighton team that can shoot the ball, but still misses some pieces.

Then came the 60 point second half that discombobulated Syracuse. The defense won the game, but every shot went in for a long stretch. It was amazing basketball to watch. 

This team has the horses to win multiple ways. Buckle up and enjoy the ride. 

Winning Numbers

Carried the ball 50 times for 221 yards.

9 of 16 on third down, and 4 of 5 on 4th down. 

Two touchdowns on 4th down plays.

462 total yards vs. 323.

No turnovers, and an interception to seal the game. 

Only one punt. 

ISU reached the red zone five times, and scored five TDs. 

Kansas reached the red zone four times, but only scored 14 points. 

The best overall game since late September. Win.  

It's Gotta Be The Gold Pants

It was lovely seeing a Cyclone team in gold pants again, even if it was on the road. Apparently a bit of Gold Pant Magic was the slump-buster the program needed.

Passing the ball remains an inconsistent challenge, but the offense found enough connections down the stretch to churn out first downs. A win despite a 160-yard deficit it hard to do, as is the kind of game that ISU is often on the losing end.

Our goals for Cyclone teams has always been the same: get games into the fourth quarter, and win more than half of the games from there. The last three losses all fit this bill, and the win in Fort Worth did two. Sometimes your grinding pays off.

Just keep grinding. 

Running uphill

Another loss, another disappointing game for an offense that seems to be running uphill.

Six trips into the Red Zone, 19 points. Sub-optimal. 

-1.8 YPP. Teams almost never win when getting out gained at that rate.

18-37 for 186 (numbers inflated by the last possession) is not the QB play that Iowa State needs to win games.

The defense was torched for 300 yards of rushing, but only gave up 25 points. 

And yet- Iowa State had the ball in the Red Zone with 35 seconds left. 

The offense moves the ball and generates opportunities to score, but falls apart in the big moments.

Last season, they made plays when they needed to make plays. This year, the offense has reverted to Cyclone football of the past.

For 20 years there was a running joke in the tailgate lots that if the defense can stay below 24 points, Iowa State probably wins, and if the offense can score more than 24 points, the Cyclones probably win. 

under almost any yardstick, the game against ASU was a loss on both sides of the ball. And yet- it was this close to being a slump-buster.  Frustrating. 

Advantage

The list of teams that have come into Trice and had their ground game limited by the ISU defense is long. Those teams then have to hand the ball to their QB and ask him to find a way.

Often, the QB isn't up to the task,  he makes some critical mistakes and the Cyclones win. Bachmeier was up to the task, both passing and throwing.

Most of the 50/50 plays went BYU's way, and a great first half by the ISU offense was wasted. The second half offense was a disaster: 3-and-out; Red Zone settle for a FG; pick six; Red Zone TO on downs; Red Zone INT.

There's plenty of blame to pass around, but the offense absolutely could have overcome Bachmeier's heroics. But BYU also looks like a team that has the winning pixie dust, just as ISU had handfuls of it in '24. 

You just have to keep working your plan, get the percentages on your side, and hope the dice come up 7. 

Numbers

Iowa State has played football against 5 Power 4 teams. The offense is averaging 25.2 ppg. The D: 22 ppg

Opponent,  ISU offensive points scored, opponent defensive scoring avg:

Kansas State,  24, 27

TOE, 16, 18 

Arizona, 39, 24

Cincinnati,  30, 21

Colorado, 17, 31 

 

Opponent, Offensive points scored vs. ISU, opponent offensive avg:

Kansas State,  21, 32

TOE, 13, 29

Arizona, 14, 24

Cincinnati,  38, 31

Colorado, 24, 21

 

The best offensive performance to date was scoring 15 above AZ's average, but the game in Boulder was a big, big miss, scoring 14 under their average.

The defense has been much more consistent, contrary to the opinion of many fans. The GoBlas were held 16 under their average, but Cincy and CU both exceeded theirs. But the losses both required the opponent's offense have better than average days.

The offense has only exceeded the opponents defensive average twice, and the game in Cincy was a loss. 

On the whole, the defense is playing winning football, but the offense is keeping games close and giving the other guy a chance. That's a bad place to be.

Stumbles

Our Cyclones now find themselves owners of a two game losing streak, all on the road. Offensive mistakes are holding the team back.

None of the four road games have been a fun watch offensively. Drives collapse after a false start or dropped pass. Big plays fail to reach the end zone. Red zone trips don’t create enough TDs.

At 2-2 in the Big 12, a return to the title game is unlikely. But a strong finish will require better consistency across each offensive possession, putting less weight on being perfect in the fourth quarter.

There’s always something to be picky about. Enjoy the off week. 

Dominant

CSJ staff were genuinely nervous about the match-up with Arizona, as the chaotic defense and mobile quarterback cranked up our fears of the unknown. 

Yet we found ourselves unsure of what to do with our hands in the second half as the Cyclones finished a 39-14 manhandling of the Wildcats. We can only recall conference wins of that ease over teams that were about to fire their coaches, not ones expected to be bowl-eligible. 

The game was won in the trenches, where Iowa State was clearly stronger, and reset the point of attach on most plays. Again, something we are not used to seeing.

Here's hoping the solid play continues in the 'Nati. 

 

Grit

Travel back to August 1, 2025. What did you envision Iowa State's record would be after its first four games?

3-1 was the common guess. Two rivalry games, one overseas, with two trap games mixed in? A reasonable argument could be made for 2-2.  And after witnessing the funk that Kansas State finds iteself in, 1-3 or 0-4 were plausible, if unlikely.

The Cyclones struggled to score against a squad they hung 50 on 12 months ago, but the are also clearly tired, both physically and mentally. Everyone needs a nap and a weekend off. But they are 4-0, and every door is still open.

Yes, it was frustrating watching a mobile QB crank out first down after first down. But the defense held Arkansas State to 16 points, and only 6 in the second half. Teams don't win with yardage, they win with points.

The offense moved in fits and starts, but when it needed touchdowns it scored touchdowns. 

Road games outside of Power 4 are controversial. We believe that one must seek out tough situations to learn how to succeed in tough situations. The grit the Cyclones displayed in Owensboro will be needed down the line. They understand how to grind out hard wins.

Enjoy your bye week.

Disaster Avoided

The 2025 El Assico was a repeat of the 2024 game, except for the ending: home team dominates the first quarter, but leaves points on the field after settling for field goals. Visiting team rights their ship, and crawls back into the game, finding them down by a field goal in the 4th.

But this year, the home team makes enough plays to eek out a win. ISU escapes with a 16-13 win that was mostly hard to watch.

Iowa State made vastly more errors that could have lost them the game: a drop in the end zone; 4 drops on third down, several that would have been chunk plays; PIs that would have been third down stops; the lone holding call of the game ruined a red zone possession; the player-blocked-into-punt-returner fiasco; and so on.

Iowa State was fortunate that the GoBlas were too inept on offense to really challenge them. A better opponent would have won this game by 14.

Hopefully the program hasn't peaked too early.  

Niner

The Cyclones too what looked to be a challenging game- a possible Ireland hangover, a quality FCS team with a chip on its shoulder- and quickly sucked all of the drama out of the plot by scoring on its first nine possessions. 

The team looked sharp in every phase, and forced the South Dakota QB to make throws. He couldn't deliver.

Mauser has found a great rhythm to his play calling, and at times has defenses on skates. The GoBlas have a lot of sets to cover in their practices this week. 

In Ames, the mantra of the week should be: "Do your Job. Find a way". The six game home losing streak in the series needs to end.

 

A Big Win on A Big Stage

The CSJ staff was concerned gong into the game in Dublin that we would watch another chapter of our Cyclones faltering under the bright lights on the big stages: B12 Title games, top tier bowl games, and games against the GoBlas. End of the first quarter, and ISU is down 17-0 or 21-3, and the game is over.

A solid start in the rain and a 7-0 lead was reassuring, with the opponent making the critical early mistake. Once the offense found its rhythm, they controlled the line of scrimmage and ground out first downs. 9 first downs running, 9 first downs passing. Only generating 4.2 YPP (while giving up 6.7) is concerning, but bigger plays will come.

While the defense was leaky in big plays, they were also nails at key moments. The unit forced 3 three-and-outs, and another 3 turnovers on downs, one at their own 5. The stop with 8 minutes left was the pivot point of the game.

Lots of positives, and much to work on. The whole was a great moment in front of the college football universe. Well done. 

 

Great Stats From "Bad" Defense

The ISU defense struggled against the run in 2024, finishing 15th in the 16 team league. (OSU was last by a bunch.)

Yet the Cyclones finished tied for first in scoring defense in conference games at 22 ppg, which is the number that matters. 

Being the best defense against the pass was required, thanks to an outstanding back 5. Add in that ISU only had 7 sacks in 9 games, the scoring number is even more impressive.

Jump back to 2023: ISU was 3rd in scoring D at 22 ppg, 2nd in rushing and 5th in passing. They had 21 sacks.  

Finishing 7-2 in 2024 with a bad rush defense was amazing, edging on miracle. Stay in the top 4 for scoring defense and the wins will follow. 

For Future Reference

Courtesy of MasseyRatings.com the composite power ratings for the B12 before any games are played:

 https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=10686

 

Kansas State

Arizona State 

Iowa State

BYU

TCU

Baylor

Tech

Utah

Colorado

Kansas

Cincy

UCF

WVU

OSU

Houston

Arizona

 

From this list ISU plays #1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16. Average: 8

Buckle Up. 

Forecast

We don't feel like football has arrived until we can look up the weather forecast for the first game. The forecast in Dublin has arrived (67 and sunny) so here is the full season forecast for our Cyclones:

8-4. 

A nice season, with twice the wins than losses, (8-4 would be in the top 10% of Cyclone football seasons, all-time), but it will be tough to match 2024's insanity. 

It's really, really hard to go 5-1 in games of 8 points or less. It's impossible to do that two years in a row.

Perhaps the program improves enough to avoid those one-score-margin-late games. but we doubt it. The B12 is too even, and too many fluky things can happen.

So here's the guess:

Win in Dublin over KSU (Campbell has their number)

Lose to awa. At home. Again. In some new, painful, awful way. (They have our number in Ames.)

Lose at TCU and at home to KU. (The Jayhawks have our number)

Lose another random game where things don't go well.

Win eight games, and hopefully have some fun in the process. 

Nice bowl game. Nice season. Enjoy.

A bad night for a bad night

 When your opponent shoots 58% from the floor including 11-19 from 3, you are going to need an exceptional game to keep up. When many of the opponents made shots are tough, circus plays from guys who don't normally score, it may just not be your night.

When the Iowa State offense only has 9 assists on 27 buckets, they ran into a defense that made them run uphill, forcing guys to manufacture offense from low-percentage shots. Iowa State seldom wins those games.

We've all seen how success on offense can improve ISU's defense, and stops on defense can crank up their offense. They feed on each other, and so often results in runs that leads to wins.

But when neither end of the floor is working, a negative feedback loop kicks in. Players start forcing plays on offense, and try to do too much on defense, causing the whole system to break down. Our Cyclones often cause the negative loop on other teams, and we all know what that looks like. One team is running uphill, the other downhill.

We aren't used to being in the negative loop.

The single-elimination format of The Tourney is what makes it both great and awful. Thrilling when your team delivers unexpected wins, brutal when your team falls short.

Some nights you lose, and some nights you get beat. This time, Iowa State got beat.

Schemes

The match-up against Lipscomb will be entertaining. I'm a big fan of any team that boosts 47% of its shots from behind the 3 point line.

We are intrigued with the strategy for the Cyclones on slowing Lipscomb's 5-Out-ish offensive style. Giving help in the lane while preventing open looks is a challenge. 

On offense, transition points will be tough without a lot of live ball turnovers at mid-court. Losing Gilbert, one of the keys to forcing steals, is a big loss. Lipscomb prefers to get back on defense rather than scramble for offensive rebounds, so the Cyclones will have to find peak efficiency in the half court.

Just find a way, fellas. Survive and advance is a cliche for a reason.

Options

 A team out its two starting guards has a chance to win with 90 seconds left? Straight courage. 

Best shooter goes nuclear for 35 points? Legend.

Despite the loss to BYU, the team should have renewed confidence in their offensive options among the eight guys who normally play.

Rest everyone’s legs, prep for the eventual opponents and go make a run.

Chances

 Our Cyclones should be celebrated for erasing a 21 point lead. But when it came time to win the game, they faulted. 

Execution in just-need-one-bucket moments will determine how far this team goes in KC and beyond. Get some sleep. 

Running Up and Down Hill

When our Cyclones are forced into a half-court game,  they can look as if they are running uphill. Everything is hard, the timing is off, simple shots roll out instead of in.

When they are creating live-ball turnovers or getting stops and live rebounds, they are much more dangerous, and score at a better clip, which only energizes effort on the defensive end. The floor tips, and the Cyclones are running downhill.

ISU had the uphill climb for about 32 minutes against Kansas State, which kept the tempo slow, and forced the half court game. Every drive was met by two or three defenders, and hard shots refused to go in. Tough possessions on offense stole momentum, and the defensive effort seemed a step slow, as if KSU was full of surprises. 

Losers of 3 of their last 5, Iowa State is in a funk. Lawrence is a tough place to right oneself.

High Level Loss

The Cyclones did everything but win tonight. Missing the front end of a two-shot foul was important. 

The 2000 team lost in Boulder in an OT forced by a 60 foot 3. Tonight was the same. 

The difference is that Arizona is a lot better than that Buffaloes squad. 

Our Cyclones can play high level basketball on the road against quality teams. But closing out games is harder. Gotta do the little things.

The Streak is dead. Long live the Streak

Making a three in 945 consecutive games is a real accomplishment, especially since it started in a time when teams only took 2 or 3 long shots a game, usually out of desperation.

Most coaches didn't consider a three-first strategy as "real" basketball then.

It is odd that a team that brought in four players over the summer with gaudy shooting stats would struggle all season once the lights came on.

Tech was obviously trying to limit attempts from deep, and conceded shots in the lane. They still lost.

But they will always have the hide of The Streak tacked to their wall. Congrats.

Just Win Baby

Keeping a solid Baylor team at arm's length in Ames is one thing. Winning in Lubbock, where so many Cyclone teams have been demoralized, is something else.

Iowa State was never rattled, kept plugging away, and found a way to win in overtime. They get on the plane back to Ames +2 in the Floyd standings, with two more stout opponents next week.

The three game stretch of Tech, Kansas and West Virginia was going to reveal a lot about this squad. Their grit and moxie are becoming more obvious.