Improvement

Some football math:

Iowa State finished 4th in both scoring defense and scoring offense, B12 games only, in 2024.

Below is ISU's performance against each B12 opponent (10 games including ASU).

Opponent, Points scored, (+/- Opponent Def. average), Points surrendered, (+/- Opponent Off. average)

Houston 20 (-5); 0 (-12.9)

Baylor 43 (+12.6); 21 (-14.4)

WVU 28 (-3.9); 16 (-11.4)

UCF 38 (+6.7); 35 (+7.2)

Tech 22 (-11.9); 23 (-13.6)

Kansas 36 (+6.4); 45 (+14.9)

Cincy 34 (+8.3); 17 (-6.7)

Utah 31 (+7.9); 28 (+8.8)

KSU. 29 (+4.2); 21 (-6.9)

ASU 19 (-3.2); 45 (+14.3)

The home win over Baylor was the most complete game, with both offense and defense having their best "over-performances" of the season. 

Arizona State was ISU's biggest miss, with both offense and defense on the wrong side of the +/-. 

The Cyclone offense covered for a bad defensive game in the win over UCF, but wasted a great defensive effort against Tech. 

Each unit was on the "wrong side" four times. The team lost two "wrong side" games by the offense and two by the defense. 

The defense had bigger swings, so reducing the amount of bad on bad nights would be helpful. The offensive unit has enough tools returning in '25 to be on the plus side every game. 

Get to work, everybody.

All-in or All-out

Another close game goes the Cyclone's way in the Pop Tarts Bowl. For everyone who wants to put an asterisk next to the win due to Miami's best player sitting out the second half (which is damn weird), does a bowl win when the opponent has sit-outs always get an asterisk? If not, who decides which games get the asterisk and which don't? If you work down this line of thought, the only answer is that either every win counts or none count. Wins go onto your all-time win total or these are just scrimmages with referees. Pick one and let us know.

We're calling the game a clear win for Iowa State. 

The fact that only four Seniors played in the first half for a team that finished 11-3 is nothing but good news. 

See you in August, Cyclone Football. Well done.

 

Grit

Apologies, all. This has been sitting in our drafts- didn't hit publish like the smart kids do. Here's some very belated thoughts:

Most Cyclone teams from the past would have folded under SUI's impressive first-half shooting barrage. Justified- it wasn't their night. The GoBlas can fill it up. So it goes.

But Iowa State adjusted, abandoned the trap for straight-up D, and hung around.

The game swung on a run that started with 6 minutes left in the game. Across 11 possessions, the GoBlas missed 8 straight shots and only got 4 free throws. ISU scored 17 points in the same span. Game.

The ability to play high end basketball on both offense and defense, even if only for a short spurt, are powerful tools. The grit and patience to keep grinding away, waiting for your opportunity, will keep our Cyclones in a lot of games. The GoBlas had an 87% probability with 11:30 left in the game, and were a 72% probability when the ISU run began. And then things changed.

Winning a game late in Iowa City? Priceless.

Reversal

Arizona State did to Iowa State what Iowa State often does to opponents, and rode the reversal to the Big 12 title and a bye in the playoff.

The Cyclones routine is to evaluate the opposing offense on the first few possessions, and then slowly take away advantages as the game progresses. 

Iowa State was a bully to open the game, dominating the ASU defense for 10 points. But from there, ASU was the bully. Cyclone mistakes and brilliant running from Skattebo led to a game that was over in the 3rd.

Many fans will dismiss the season as a failure over one game. While missing the opportunity is disappointing, ASU's win in Manhattan should have been a sign that they would be a big hurdle to clear. But the Cyclones also showed they could dominate teams when they has the mismatch, yet find ways to win in the 4th when needed. These skills are as much mental as physical.

A 10 win season brings our Cyclones to a new level. It will be fascinating to see if the New Big 12 (16)

will continue to be as surprising as this season was, or if programs fall into tiers as time goes on.

If the program can continue its solid recruiting and team management, Iowa State is in position to be a solid contender every year.

It was a fun ride.

Schedules

 This year should remind us that Strength of Schedule often comes down to luck.

As an example, let's look back at the B12 preseason media poll, where they actually finished, and the difference:

1 Utah 13 (-12)

2 KSU 8 (-6)

3 OSU 16 (-13)

4 Kansas 10 (-6)

5 Arizona 14 (-9)

6 Iowa State 2 (+4)

7 West Virginia 9 (-2)

8 UCF 15 (-7)

9 Tech 7 (+2)

10 TCU 6 (+4)

11 Colorado 4 (+7)

12 Baylor 5 (+7)

13 BYU 3 (+10)

14 Cincy 11 (+3)

15 Houston 12 (+3)

16 ASU 1 (+15)

The bottom eight teams in the preseason poll all finished better than expected, led by the Sun Devils. 

Iowa State was the only team in the top 8 to finish better than expected. Wow.

Time will tell if this year was an outlier, or if the order will jumble each year.

Based on the preseason, ISU was to play 9 games with a total SOS (in order of projected finish) of 72. They ended up playing a schedule of 89, and avoided 1, 2, 4 and 6. So it goes.

Nationally, Iowa State SOS was 47th. TOE was 53, despite playing in the impossibly rugged Big 10.

Since 2000, TOE has had an average SOS of 38, while ISU has battled a SOS of 25. ISU also had 5 seasons in the Top 10 of SOS. TOE had one, back in 2000. Those numbers are part of the reason that one team has averaged 8 wins this century, and the other has averaged 5.7.

Here's hoping ISU can improve their percentages.

Another Week Walking The Undiscovered Country

Members of the CSJ staff quietly held their breath during the KSU game, waiting for the kick to the privates to arrive, to witness yet another pratfall in a key moment.

The pratfall never came. The Cyclones won an important game.

The 10-win level has been achieved, and a trip to the new, expanded, Big 12 title game has been secured. New territory for our Cyclones to explore.

It has been a fun right for the most part. Enjoy the next chapters.