Opportunity

From our reading of the season stats, Memphis looks like Kansas on offense, but Cincy on defense. Contrast.

Hopefully the offensive staff pulls out the play sheets from the Kansas State and BYU games and keeps the Memphis defense honest by throwing the ball. If the staff over thinks things and focuses only on running the ball, they might start with three 3-and-outs and find themselves down 17-0 in the first half.

Until the Iowa State defense shows that it can slow the Memphis offense, the offensive staff has to come in with an Arenaball mentality: TDs on every possession are mandatory. Barring another gonzo day from Sama, the mixed scheme looks like a winner.

Hopefully ISU finds a way for a 10 point win- but don't be surprised if our collective butts are puckered in the 4th.

Anger and Joy

The staff of CSJ spent their Turkey Days listening to many disgruntled Cyclone fans who were eager to complain about the missed opportunities in the loss to Texa$. 

We understand they were eager to send UT to the SEC with 4 losses in the last 6 meetings, but consider how far the program and fan base has come. It wasn't long ago that Iowa State lost their first 7 meetings, and had 1-11 and 2-14 records against Austin. Suddenly we expect to win each matchup.

Simply put, Texa$ is both running towards an SEC payday and running away from schools like TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State. Athletes that wear the burnt orange can make peace with losing to a equal like Oklahoma, but losing to the other members of "The Angry Eight" is not what they signed on for.

We suspect that within four years the Texa$ administration will be caught wooing other schools for The Super League in a chase for even more dollars and an avoidance of losses to schools like Mississippi State and Kentucky. They helped blow up the Southwest Conference, tried to blow the Big 12 up twice, and will do the same to the SEC. It's all they know.

But Texas doesn't know snow. 

The weather that our staff had hoped would greet the Longhorns in Ames appeared in Manhattan a week later, and assisted the Cyclones in one of the most ridiculous wins in team history. 

35 plays, 42 points, 5 TD plays of over 60 yards, and a running back totaling the 4th best game in program history in his first start.

The 6 inches of snow on the field make life difficult for defenders as they couldn't use their normal tackling form. Rather than coming in waist high and wrapping up, all they could do is try to tackle while standing up. It can be done, but it's hard. 

Iowa State allowed 35 points on 102 (!) K-State plays, but none of them were backbreakers. The KSU defense allowed nothing but back-breakers. Each missed tackle was 6 points. 

It's a game that ISU fans will discuss forever, and the CSJ staff regrets not attending in person, because it will soon be legendary. 

It's a fun boat to be sailing.

 

Leveling Up

One narrative from the B12 FB season has been the struggles of "The New Four" against the legacy B12 teams. As we write this, the group is 4-17, with a bunch of blowouts in the losses.

Iowa State handled BYU Saturday with even more ease compared to their win over Cincinnati last month. Each program may be tough outs in the future, but this year the group lacks the beef in the trenches to be competitive week after week.

Saturday's win was a fun ride from the Cyclone side of the field. We witnessed both long drives and big plays on 5 TD drives, and a stingy defense that surrendered only 14 points, while gaining an INT, 3 Over-On-Downs and 4 punts. A solid day all around.

The best news was an offensive play sheet that featured lots of misdirection and throws down the field. More, please. The aggressive passing game clearly opens up the run game. 

Now comes two tough match-ups: A Texas squad that has a shot at the playoff, a KSU team that has been scary good for most of the season. Win either and the bowl seed jumps. 

But being bowl-eligible going into the Texas game is a huge bonus. Just hang around until the 4th quarter and perhaps UT makes a fatal error on a cold Ames night.

Age

 A few mistakes and the inability to adjust to defensive surprises doomed our Cyclones against second-year upstart Kansas.

But the CSJ staff noticed a funny detail when comparing the respective rosters:

Iowa State has 21 Freshmen or Sophomores in the 44 player two-deep.

Kansas only has 6.

Experience overwhelmed youth in an otherwise even game. That will happen.

Hopefully our Cyclones won't be a slump-buster for BYU late Saturday night.

Sloppy Domination

 It's odd for Cyclone fans to watch a football game and come away from a win feeling that a blowout was left on the table. It's a fun feeling, but still odd.

Which brings us to November football games that matter. Win the game in front of you and doors remain open, doors that looked closed back in September.

Score 30 points against KU and the Cyclones probably win. Keep KU under 30 points and the Cyclones probably win. Goals. 

Enjoy the ride.

The Mighty 'Mo

 Dominating as a road dog is the best.

Three solid wins against teams in the same weight class has put a bounce in the step of the CSJ staff. Four more games in the weight class has made us cautiously optimistic the CMC and crew could place a 13th game on our calendars.

Scoring points is fun. Winning is fun, too.

Beware The Ames

 The best nicknames are thrust upon you.

It's also nice to be on the other side of "We won the box score but lost the game". 

The Trice uniforms need to make an annual reappearance. 

The CSJ staff is growing cautiously optimistic with more manageable opponents on the schedule.

Keep improving.

Evolution

In the annual wild, drama-filled game against the Cowboys, it was great to see the offense nudge towards what the team can (potentially) do well and away from what it has shown it can't do in a consistent way.

The move towards the pass is natural (and obvious) but is most admirable as it goes against human nature. Change is hard for humans. The CSJ staff has dozens of habits that should be changed, but remain a constant in our lives. We applaud anyone who recognizes that change is needed- and actually follows through.

While the Cyclones aren't world beaters, there are a solid five games left on the schedule that could be considered coin flips. Opportunity awaits.

Change Or Maintain?

 We normals watch games differently from experts. We might have some idea of what the original design of a given play was, and can infer some idea of where a play succeeds or fails. But only a team's staff can accurately evaluate performance.

Through three games, the Iowa State offense is one of the worst in Power 5, and is the worst in total offense. Run blocking is atrocious. Only the staff can determine if that situation is going to improve or if a change in philosophy is warranted.

CMC found some success in his first five years by being a ground-first, ball control offense when most of the league was still running the spread and trying to score 60 each week. But now most of the league is looking to run, and Iowa State's offensive style is no longer the outlier. 

Go to the pass to set up the run? Stop running inside and get the ball to talent in space? Or keep trying to improve the zone blocking performance and try to "ground and pound"?

Others have sited the change in defensive philosophy after the 2017 Akron game, and that shift has changed football at every level. Abandoning areas where you are struggling and going all in on what you are (marginally) better at has merit.

The next few games will be interesting.

Not Enough, Again

There were several seasons in the late 1980's and 1990's when the margin between Iowa State and Oklahoma wasn't very big. The Cyclones would keep the game close (see '89, '92, '95, '98, and of course the win in '90)- but OU would find a way to win.

The TOE series is the same way. 

The series is much more competitive than the record over the last 20 games (7-13), but the TOE is so often just enough better to get the trophy. 

We hope the Cyclones can get a win or two in the series before the GoBlas are promoted to The Super Duper League and the football series ends forever.

Optimistic Start

Saturday was a lovely change of pace in the usually challenging series with UNI- an early lead revealed an Iowa State team that was shockingly better in all three phases of the game compared to the Panthers. A nice surprise all around.

Which brings us to the GoBlas. An argument can be made that outside of the 2016 debacle, CMC's crew has outplayed the TOE in the last five games, with only last year's win to show for it. It is the height of irony that a team that couldn't get out of its own way for most of the season (and tried to give the game away in the first quarter) strung together the most unlikely possession in Cyclone Football history: 21 plays, 99 3/4 yards, 11:49 off the clock for the winning TD. 

Hopefully all three units can avoid the killer mistake and find a way to beat a very talented but offensively flawed GoBla team.

Just Win, Baby.

Same old or something different?

The staff at CSJ can make both of the arguments for the 2023 Cyclone football season:

-Too many personnel losses and too many changes to staff and scheme keep the offense as the worst in the Big 12, and the team finish 4-8 again;

-The defense keeps the team in every game, and the offense improves just enough to find 6 or 7 wins to earn a trip to Memphis or similar.

We have our fingers crossed the latter is the tale that will be told. But given CMC's propensity to play game close, we will keep a big jar of Tums in arms reach every Saturday. 

Against UNI- the Purple Hawks will keep it close, but miss a 55 yard FG try at the gun and lose 14-13.

No style points- Just win, baby. 

Now We Know

Given the news of the week, we now know much of the path that lies before the football team.

Continue to be stout on defense.

Improve to merely average on special teams.

Run the ball with enough consistency that the QB doesn't have to carry the offense.

We have a large enough data set with seven seasons under CMC to know that while the team will find itself in more close games than the average program, the solid defense means they seldom have to put 40 on the board to win. Simply moving the offensive conference scoring average from 20 to 24 points per game would have resulted in a winning season. 27 points would have been smashing in the win column.

Here's hoping the new offensive staff can put more points on the board, and team team has better success in the margins.

With seven (!) coin flips on the schedule, the difference between 8-4 and 4-8 will be really small.

Farewell to the Old Guard

The CSJ staff sheds no tears when news breaks of coaches at all levels being dismissed for verbal abuse, hazing, or general jerkiness.

This style of coaching is a dinosaur in modern life. It is being weeded out of the workplace, yet we expect our kids to endure it as it "builds character". 

No, it doesn't. It only encourages a fear of failure, hesitancy, and caution.

Exposure of these behaviors is becoming more common as players are growing more courageous in documenting and reporting the abuse. The fact that athletes can now transfer if the coaches are inappropriate has also shifted the balance of power on teams- and coaches who are used to domineering behavior are quick to complain about how 'soft' athletes have become. But its obvious that the most abusive wouldn't take what they dish out if it was coming from anyone else in the life.

In the new world of athletics, player management is as important as recruiting and tactics. We will quickly learn who is better at each phase, but bad player management may get a coach fired the quickest.

In favor of the Mid-Majors

For the record, if the NCAA tournament makes any changes, it should shift its bids away from the power conferences and towards the Mid-Majors. 

The simple reason is that the 6th or 7th team in a Power 6 conference had plenty of chances to earn Quad 1 wins, since they play in a power 6 conference.

Mid-Major teams often struggle to get more than 1 or 2 Quad 1 games on their schedules, as the Power 6 schools have little incentive to play them. (Iowa State and awa's refusal to play Drake and Northern Iowa is Exhibit A) They should be given the benefit of the doubt.

More UMBC and St. Peters, (and, yes, more Hamptons and UABs) fewer 7th place finishes getting bids. And stop sending conference champs to Dayton for the First Four. They won their league, they get a proper seed.

Play Ball.

Courage

 A wild couple of weeks of Cyclone Basketball culminated if big wins in Kansas City.

The men shook off weeks of bad chemistry to earn two solid wins over Baylor and a decent effort against Kansas. They adjusted to the removal of a key cog in their game plan, and yet returned to the form that won them games up through mid-January. Adapting to sudden change takes both knowledgeable coaching and a willingness to adjust for the better.

The women's conference season and tournament title is just as remarkable. After losing two post players in January, the offensive plan was scrapped and the team reverted to the three-driven offense that had carried them for almost 30 years. This season was one of Fennely's better coaching jobs in his tenure. 

Having the conference MVP goes a long way. It's unfortunate that the best player in the Big 12 flies under the national radar because her game is so understated. She manages to get 21 and 10 every night without a single play that ends up on SportsCenter. It's low-key impressive. 

Now on to the tournaments. Both teams have manageable seeds, and can hopefully find enough offense to get to the second weekend. Regardless of their finishes, both teams earned athletic and mental victories this year.

Game on.

Variance

 Even when the men were playing well, they were prone to scoring droughts. Every hot streak could be met with a drought. 

By our math, a 60-54 was lost when the offense could only manage 9 points over their last 13 possessions while WVU managed to stay above 1 point per possession the rest of the way. 

If the Cyclones find a couple of buckets down the stretch, they probably pull it out.

They showed great courage to come out of half time and take the lead, but the last 7 minutes displayed the vulnerability this gritty but flawed team owns. 

The arc of the season changed when Grill tweaked his back reaching for a rebound against Texas. 

The good news is that they are in the tourney, and they way they play defense will give them a puncher’s chance against anyone. 

Chances

 It is a bit head spinning to consider where the Cyclones are compared to two seasons ago.

With 8 games to play, Iowa State has a puncher's chance at winning the league. Wild.

They will probably need to go 7-1 or 6-2 to pull it off, but to even have a shot at a ring is fantastic.

Of the six (!) teams with a decent chance at the title, we would put our nickel on the Jayhawk's square. They have the friendliest path, and will be favored in 5 or 6 of their last 7.

Buckle up.

Where we're at

 The good news is that Iowa State is going to be in every game this year. It's just going to come down to which team makes plays in the last four minutes.

So far, ISU has been on both sides of the end, and are now 2-2 in league road games. 

Still playing with house money.

Puncher's Chance

 Outside of a disaster in Johnson County (it wasn't the Gobla's Super Bowl, nope, no way, don't even suggest it), this Cyclone team has shown that it can go round-for-round with anyone. They've found a few more options on offense, so while they are hardly aesthetically pleasing to the basketball eye, they have avoided the droughts that plagued last year's team. They can win any game in any gym.

The Big XII is all-around ridiculous this year, so we doubt any game will be more than +10 either way. The Big Brains think 8 wins is enough for the tourney- any more will only improve the seeding. Stock up on Tums and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.