Grit

Apologies, all. This has been sitting in our drafts- didn't hit publish like the smart kids do. Here's some very belated thoughts:

Most Cyclone teams from the past would have folded under SUI's impressive first-half shooting barrage. Justified- it wasn't their night. The GoBlas can fill it up. So it goes.

But Iowa State adjusted, abandoned the trap for straight-up D, and hung around.

The game swung on a run that started with 6 minutes left in the game. Across 11 possessions, the GoBlas missed 8 straight shots and only got 4 free throws. ISU scored 17 points in the same span. Game.

The ability to play high end basketball on both offense and defense, even if only for a short spurt, are powerful tools. The grit and patience to keep grinding away, waiting for your opportunity, will keep our Cyclones in a lot of games. The GoBlas had an 87% probability with 11:30 left in the game, and were a 72% probability when the ISU run began. And then things changed.

Winning a game late in Iowa City? Priceless.

Reversal

Arizona State did to Iowa State what Iowa State often does to opponents, and rode the reversal to the Big 12 title and a bye in the playoff.

The Cyclones routine is to evaluate the opposing offense on the first few possessions, and then slowly take away advantages as the game progresses. 

Iowa State was a bully to open the game, dominating the ASU defense for 10 points. But from there, ASU was the bully. Cyclone mistakes and brilliant running from Skattebo led to a game that was over in the 3rd.

Many fans will dismiss the season as a failure over one game. While missing the opportunity is disappointing, ASU's win in Manhattan should have been a sign that they would be a big hurdle to clear. But the Cyclones also showed they could dominate teams when they has the mismatch, yet find ways to win in the 4th when needed. These skills are as much mental as physical.

A 10 win season brings our Cyclones to a new level. It will be fascinating to see if the New Big 12 (16)

will continue to be as surprising as this season was, or if programs fall into tiers as time goes on.

If the program can continue its solid recruiting and team management, Iowa State is in position to be a solid contender every year.

It was a fun ride.

Schedules

 This year should remind us that Strength of Schedule often comes down to luck.

As an example, let's look back at the B12 preseason media poll, where they actually finished, and the difference:

1 Utah 13 (-12)

2 KSU 8 (-6)

3 OSU 16 (-13)

4 Kansas 10 (-6)

5 Arizona 14 (-9)

6 Iowa State 2 (+4)

7 West Virginia 9 (-2)

8 UCF 15 (-7)

9 Tech 7 (+2)

10 TCU 6 (+4)

11 Colorado 4 (+7)

12 Baylor 5 (+7)

13 BYU 3 (+10)

14 Cincy 11 (+3)

15 Houston 12 (+3)

16 ASU 1 (+15)

The bottom eight teams in the preseason poll all finished better than expected, led by the Sun Devils. 

Iowa State was the only team in the top 8 to finish better than expected. Wow.

Time will tell if this year was an outlier, or if the order will jumble each year.

Based on the preseason, ISU was to play 9 games with a total SOS (in order of projected finish) of 72. They ended up playing a schedule of 89, and avoided 1, 2, 4 and 6. So it goes.

Nationally, Iowa State SOS was 47th. TOE was 53, despite playing in the impossibly rugged Big 10.

Since 2000, TOE has had an average SOS of 38, while ISU has battled a SOS of 25. ISU also had 5 seasons in the Top 10 of SOS. TOE had one, back in 2000. Those numbers are part of the reason that one team has averaged 8 wins this century, and the other has averaged 5.7.

Here's hoping ISU can improve their percentages.

Another Week Walking The Undiscovered Country

Members of the CSJ staff quietly held their breath during the KSU game, waiting for the kick to the privates to arrive, to witness yet another pratfall in a key moment.

The pratfall never came. The Cyclones won an important game.

The 10-win level has been achieved, and a trip to the new, expanded, Big 12 title game has been secured. New territory for our Cyclones to explore.

It has been a fun right for the most part. Enjoy the next chapters.

Disaster Averted

It's never easy.

The games you needed to go your way go your way. 

Your defense is dominating an opponent that has struggled to score.

And yet- a flukey INT turns into a pick-six.

You drop a punt resulting in a FG.

You miss a FG.

You give up a punt block for a TD.

You find yourself down 4 late in the 4th.

Yet you find a way. Again.

The doors remain open to places no Iowa State team has ever gone.

Walk through them and enjoy the trip.

Back to formula

The win against Cincy fit the formula when Iowa State wins. 

After the opening TD, Cincy went:

4 plays/4 yards Punt

8/59 FG

3/7 Punt

6/7 Punt

3/0 Punt

1/-2 End of half

8/62 Fumble

4/18 Punt

All those punts game the ISU offense a chance to find its legs. They found their rhythm when the game needed to be won and delivered two beautiful drives.

15/68 7:33 and a nifty improve on a high snap by Rocco, followed by 7/71 (!) and 27 yard TD on 4th down to close the game out.

Watching both units close the game properly was fun, and keeps the door open for bigger opportunities the next two weeks.

Good job, everyone. 

Burnt

The game against KU at Arrowhead started well.

A 99 yard drive for a TD on the first possession had so many aspects that last weeks offensive performance did not. Plays of 4, 9, 10, 15, (15PI),  15, 6 & 27 got our hopes up.

The the KU offense, brilliantly designed, put on a 28-3 run while making the defense look silly. Lots of uncovered receivers, running plays with little resistance, and soon KU was running downhill. 

The offense perked up in the second half to close the gap, but that was clearly the worst play of the season against a team that had been first class in finding ways to lose.

Perhaps injuries are catching up to the Cyclones, and too many youngsters are carrying too big of a load. Perhaps there is too much tape on the teams strengths and weaknesses. 

Perhaps ISU's luck has just run out.