-and so we being another football season in Ames, staring down another insanely hard schedule. Literally no gimmes when you include a favorite to win the Big 101112 West/Legends Division, a favorite to win the MAC and the three-time defending FCS champ. Whew.
Several have made the argument that ISU will go 3-9 or worse, Rhodes should be canned, etc. etc. etc. In other words, another typical summer expectation synopsis for the Cyclones. If the OL is riddled with injuries like 2013, 0-12 is in play. Magino can only do so much when the QB is running for his life, getting injured, and then is unable to run for his life due to injury.
My short answer: If the OL stays healthy and the offense can average 28+ per game, they find a way to get to 6-6 and a bowl invite. (It's all any of us want, really.)
But if the OL has to start using backups for extended snaps, look out below.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
The White Whale Arrives
As I wrote at this time last year, I wasn't opposed to the idea of bowling in the south end of Jack Trice, I just didn't think it made financial sense.
But Pollard, the mad genius that he is, has found a way to make the numbers work. By adding a massive "Club Section" in the end zone seating area, 3000 fans will get the privilege of spending $750 on a season ticket that before was only $99. Granted, the club section will have amenities the current seating lacks- like a place to go when it gets too hot, too cold or too wet and porcelain toilets rather than Porta Potties. I suspect that section will sell quickly.
My only concern is that there be a plan for families who leverage Jr. Cyclone memberships into a family gameday activity. The current Jr. Cyclone membership won't be able to squeeze into the NE and NW corners under the current "Ya'll come" admittance policy. But $50 for a assigned seat on top of the current $50 Jr. Cy cost would be totally fair, and would move lots of families like mine from the grass to the seats.
If the reality looks in any way similar to the renderings, Trice may officially become a place you don't want to come play- and that will be great fun.
But Pollard, the mad genius that he is, has found a way to make the numbers work. By adding a massive "Club Section" in the end zone seating area, 3000 fans will get the privilege of spending $750 on a season ticket that before was only $99. Granted, the club section will have amenities the current seating lacks- like a place to go when it gets too hot, too cold or too wet and porcelain toilets rather than Porta Potties. I suspect that section will sell quickly.
My only concern is that there be a plan for families who leverage Jr. Cyclone memberships into a family gameday activity. The current Jr. Cyclone membership won't be able to squeeze into the NE and NW corners under the current "Ya'll come" admittance policy. But $50 for a assigned seat on top of the current $50 Jr. Cy cost would be totally fair, and would move lots of families like mine from the grass to the seats.
If the reality looks in any way similar to the renderings, Trice may officially become a place you don't want to come play- and that will be great fun.
Saturday, March 01, 2014
Too Much and Not Enough
The Cyclones have a certain offensive rhythm when they are successful, efficient, and winning. I can't put my finger on exactly how many passes it involves, but there is a sweet spot in their offense.
More than 10 baskets without an assist usually leads to offensive disaster and a loss. Fortunately, that has been a rare occurrence. If Hoiberg is guilty of anything (and this is a minor quibble) is that his squad sometimes goes a pass too far when sharing the ball, which leads to a turnover. Nice problem to have.
That was evident early in their home win against West Virginia. Several possessions ended in a turnover when the extra pass was attempted, often inside and down low. After a time out the extra pass went away and shots went up. Score. The assists were earned, but the team stopped trying too hard.
Again- it's a good problem to have, but its interesting to watch it ebb and flow during the course of a game.
More than 10 baskets without an assist usually leads to offensive disaster and a loss. Fortunately, that has been a rare occurrence. If Hoiberg is guilty of anything (and this is a minor quibble) is that his squad sometimes goes a pass too far when sharing the ball, which leads to a turnover. Nice problem to have.
That was evident early in their home win against West Virginia. Several possessions ended in a turnover when the extra pass was attempted, often inside and down low. After a time out the extra pass went away and shots went up. Score. The assists were earned, but the team stopped trying too hard.
Again- it's a good problem to have, but its interesting to watch it ebb and flow during the course of a game.
Bring Back Mirrored Schedules
I'm old enough to remember when the Big 8 basketball schedules mirrored opponents for the men's and women's teams, and each team would be home opposite weeks.
Back before TV completely blew up scheduling rhythm, games were usually played on Wednesday nights and Saturday afternoons. The men might be on the road for two games while the women were at home for that week, then they would switch. The convenient part was that each would play the same opponent on the same day- If the men were in Stillwater, you knew the women were hosting the Cowgirls.
That symmetry gave the season a nice bit of predictability.
"Travel partners" only added to this. In the Big 8 days, OU and Okie State went on the road together, as did KU and Mizzou, K State and Colorado, and Nebraska with Iowa State. If you had a home game week, you would play OU on Wednesday and then OSU on Saturday. When you traveled south, you swung through Norman and Stillwater in the same trip. With 14 games spread across 8 weeks, you then had a built in night off during the week that you played your travel partner. Symmetry.
These schedules arose in the days of trains and buses, when a trip from Ames to Oklahoma was a project. Now that every road trip involves an airplane and is paid with a TV rights check economizing travel costs is less important. But two-game road trips with your travel partner conveyed, even subtly, that everyone was working together to make lives easier.
That ethic evaporated about the same time as basketball shorts stopped being short.
Back before TV completely blew up scheduling rhythm, games were usually played on Wednesday nights and Saturday afternoons. The men might be on the road for two games while the women were at home for that week, then they would switch. The convenient part was that each would play the same opponent on the same day- If the men were in Stillwater, you knew the women were hosting the Cowgirls.
That symmetry gave the season a nice bit of predictability.
"Travel partners" only added to this. In the Big 8 days, OU and Okie State went on the road together, as did KU and Mizzou, K State and Colorado, and Nebraska with Iowa State. If you had a home game week, you would play OU on Wednesday and then OSU on Saturday. When you traveled south, you swung through Norman and Stillwater in the same trip. With 14 games spread across 8 weeks, you then had a built in night off during the week that you played your travel partner. Symmetry.
These schedules arose in the days of trains and buses, when a trip from Ames to Oklahoma was a project. Now that every road trip involves an airplane and is paid with a TV rights check economizing travel costs is less important. But two-game road trips with your travel partner conveyed, even subtly, that everyone was working together to make lives easier.
That ethic evaporated about the same time as basketball shorts stopped being short.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Bowl Season May Be Ugly
I don't like the match-ups most of the B12 teams face this year. While I don't expect a complete wipeout, looking bad while finishing 2-3 wouldn't surprise me.
Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?
Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.
Texas will struggle to keep up with Oregon
Ditto Tech versus Arizona State
Baylor will get a serious challenge from The Best Program Nobody Knows aka Central Florida
Bama will crush the Sooners.
Okie State has the horses to beat Mizzou, but will their heads be in it?
Looks like I'll be working on my To-Do list rather than watching football.
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Adjustments
Half the fun of watching the Cyclones is studying the second half adjustments. At some point Fred finds a personnel and strategy combination that results in a 15-2 run over 3 minutes that wins the game.
This has to be a maddening group to game plan against, and double tough to adjust to as the game goes along. So much versatility.
This has to be a maddening group to game plan against, and double tough to adjust to as the game goes along. So much versatility.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Finishing Better Than They Start
At some point this Slow Start/Big Finish routine is going to bite our Cyclones on the butt, but for now it is quite the fun ride.
To watch the Hawkeyes lose is a most Cyclone way was fantastic. The second half is classic.
To watch the Hawkeyes lose is a most Cyclone way was fantastic. The second half is classic.
Monday, December 09, 2013
Keys
While coming back from down 18 to win in OT is impressive, not getting behind will be more important long-term.
Monday, December 02, 2013
Role Change 2
Perhaps the dumpster fire that was the ISU offense is going to change- CPR canned the OC and running backs coach.
Its good to see that lousy work isn't tolerated, and that changes will be made when they need to be.
Bring in a few Jucos to fill holes, get everyone on the same page, and go win some games.
Its good to see that lousy work isn't tolerated, and that changes will be made when they need to be.
Bring in a few Jucos to fill holes, get everyone on the same page, and go win some games.
Role Change 1
It was fun to watch ISU deliver some disappointment rather be on the receiving end.
Given how lousy the season was as a whole, the ending was as good as we could have hoped for.
Which moves us to the next post-
Given how lousy the season was as a whole, the ending was as good as we could have hoped for.
Which moves us to the next post-
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Beatdown
The 34-0 shutout of KU was cathartic for everyone involved. It was a nice reward for those who put on enough layers to spend 3 hours in 5 degree weather
It was an important win for two reasons: it gave the program a bit of momentum headed into the WV finale, and it took all of the wind from KU's sails after breaking their losing streak last week. Climbing the standings is a long-term zero-sum game. To climb the standings, you need to consistently beat everyone below you. KU is a team ISU needs to keep a rung below to have long term progress.
WVU appears to be in football trouble, so the best thing to do would be to hand them an anchor to the bottom of the standings.
It was an important win for two reasons: it gave the program a bit of momentum headed into the WV finale, and it took all of the wind from KU's sails after breaking their losing streak last week. Climbing the standings is a long-term zero-sum game. To climb the standings, you need to consistently beat everyone below you. KU is a team ISU needs to keep a rung below to have long term progress.
WVU appears to be in football trouble, so the best thing to do would be to hand them an anchor to the bottom of the standings.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Numbers
While it's fun to have basketball matter, I didn't realize how irrelevant our Cyclones have been on th national stage: the current #21 ranking is their highest in 12 years.
That covers four coaches.
The current play of the team gives me some confidence that this won't be another high water mark for the decade. Fred's teams usually struggle in November and December as the new faces find their role- that doesn't appear an issue so far.
BTW- the Detroit press blames Michigan's loss in Ames not on solid Cyclone play down the stretch but on youth and not having a leader yet.
That covers four coaches.
The current play of the team gives me some confidence that this won't be another high water mark for the decade. Fred's teams usually struggle in November and December as the new faces find their role- that doesn't appear an issue so far.
BTW- the Detroit press blames Michigan's loss in Ames not on solid Cyclone play down the stretch but on youth and not having a leader yet.
Sunday, November 03, 2013
Momentum
Looks like ISU is trying to revert to their historic norm.
Given the injuries and youth- the number of Freshmen who are playing is terrifying- Cyclone fans are willing to punt on this year. But the program is losing momentum with every blowout.
I imagine a few coaches are going to lose their jobs, but a angry mob needs to see that changes are being made. The offense is arguably the worst among the power conferences. That can't stand.
If the NCAA really cared about competitive balance, every school would get 3 weeks of practice at the end of the year, bowl game or not. But the NCAA has a financial incentive in keeping the traditional football powers in power, so teams that need the extra practice don't get it.
Given the injuries and youth- the number of Freshmen who are playing is terrifying- Cyclone fans are willing to punt on this year. But the program is losing momentum with every blowout.
I imagine a few coaches are going to lose their jobs, but a angry mob needs to see that changes are being made. The offense is arguably the worst among the power conferences. That can't stand.
If the NCAA really cared about competitive balance, every school would get 3 weeks of practice at the end of the year, bowl game or not. But the NCAA has a financial incentive in keeping the traditional football powers in power, so teams that need the extra practice don't get it.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Context
In the previous 17 Big XII seasons, Iowa State football has finished in the top half of scoring exactly twice: 4th in 2005, 6th in 2000.
That explains only having 37 conference wins across 17 seasons.
Until this club can score regularly, they will struggle. If I knew what would solve it, I wouldn't be a blogger.
That explains only having 37 conference wins across 17 seasons.
Until this club can score regularly, they will struggle. If I knew what would solve it, I wouldn't be a blogger.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Data
I admire anyone who has the time and skill set to work the data like this.
A Cyclone fan with that time and skill set is a double bonus.
A Cyclone fan with that time and skill set is a double bonus.
Cy-Hawk Trend
A friend who is smarter than me pointed out this interesting trend:
Kirk Ferentz is 2-5 in Ames.
His teams that won in Ames finished the year with 10 and 11 wins.
The teams that lost in Ames finished their years with 7, 7, 7, 6 and 1 win.
To look at it the other way, the ISU teams that have beaten Iowa in Ames have finished with 6, 3, 7, 7 and 4 wins. That trend is less definitive.
Since few see this year's Hawkeye club winning 8 or 9 more games, Iowa State should probably win.
Or rather, Iowa should probably find a way to lose.
Kirk Ferentz is 2-5 in Ames.
His teams that won in Ames finished the year with 10 and 11 wins.
The teams that lost in Ames finished their years with 7, 7, 7, 6 and 1 win.
To look at it the other way, the ISU teams that have beaten Iowa in Ames have finished with 6, 3, 7, 7 and 4 wins. That trend is less definitive.
Since few see this year's Hawkeye club winning 8 or 9 more games, Iowa State should probably win.
Or rather, Iowa should probably find a way to lose.
Thursday, September 05, 2013
Now We Know
The loss to UNI only cemented Iowa State's title as Program Hardest On Its Own Fans.
During the game I started joking with the Cyclone fan net to me which painful loss from the past was the most painful- and we had a damn long list to choose from. UNI '13 is definitely on it. Delivered at a moment when your fan base was ready to go nuts, it is the worst loss of the Rhodes era. Considering how badly they played in Memphis, its been a while since Cyclone Football has been worth cheering for.
So our Cyclones are a work in progress. At least we will have no illusions about our underdog status the rest of the way.
During the game I started joking with the Cyclone fan net to me which painful loss from the past was the most painful- and we had a damn long list to choose from. UNI '13 is definitely on it. Delivered at a moment when your fan base was ready to go nuts, it is the worst loss of the Rhodes era. Considering how badly they played in Memphis, its been a while since Cyclone Football has been worth cheering for.
So our Cyclones are a work in progress. At least we will have no illusions about our underdog status the rest of the way.
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Patience
UNI should have won in Madison last fall, and the Badgers went on to the Rose Bowl. The Panthers could have won in Iowa City had they gotten a few breaks.
I'm going to assume this game won't be won until the fourth quarter. The heat is going to require lots of rotation of the second team, which should be an advantage for the Cyclones. UNI's first 22 can play, but I hope there is a drop off when comparing ISU's second units to UNI's. If there isn't, we might as well lose since its going to be a long fall anyway. Pull that Band-Aid off early and quickly.
So don't panic if it's tied at 14 at the half. It will be a war of attrition.
I'm going to assume this game won't be won until the fourth quarter. The heat is going to require lots of rotation of the second team, which should be an advantage for the Cyclones. UNI's first 22 can play, but I hope there is a drop off when comparing ISU's second units to UNI's. If there isn't, we might as well lose since its going to be a long fall anyway. Pull that Band-Aid off early and quickly.
So don't panic if it's tied at 14 at the half. It will be a war of attrition.
Sunday, July 21, 2013
Punching Above Their Weight
The DM Register did a good job figuring out the athletic and football budgets for several conferences. Those are hard numbers to parse out.
Iowa State again has the smallest athletic budget in the Big 12, yet is fourth or fifth best in performance. Nice job all around. That kind of result is all we can ask for.
My only quibble is the "Cash Spent per football win" formula only focused on one year being too short. One good or bad year skews the results too much. I would prefer a 3 or 5 year horizon to get a clearer view of things.
The big surprise? Iowa has the fourth biggest budget in the Big 10, yet is last in the league for performance the last two years. Ouch.
Iowa State again has the smallest athletic budget in the Big 12, yet is fourth or fifth best in performance. Nice job all around. That kind of result is all we can ask for.
My only quibble is the "Cash Spent per football win" formula only focused on one year being too short. One good or bad year skews the results too much. I would prefer a 3 or 5 year horizon to get a clearer view of things.
The big surprise? Iowa has the fourth biggest budget in the Big 10, yet is last in the league for performance the last two years. Ouch.
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Long Fall
If you follow the links for Iowa and Iowa State, you will find that at the moment both teams combine to be favored in exactly one conference game, Kansas over ISU in Ames.
Ouch.
We Clonies are used to the perpetual underdog role. That is a new experience for fans in Iowa City. Another 2-6 or worse year- I hear talk of 0-8 being a real possibility- and things will get real ugly for Coach-For-Life Kirk.
The goal for the '13 Cyclones: Continue the forward momentum, because there isn't much in Iowa City.
Ouch.
We Clonies are used to the perpetual underdog role. That is a new experience for fans in Iowa City. Another 2-6 or worse year- I hear talk of 0-8 being a real possibility- and things will get real ugly for Coach-For-Life Kirk.
The goal for the '13 Cyclones: Continue the forward momentum, because there isn't much in Iowa City.
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