The DM Register did a good job figuring out the athletic and football budgets for several conferences. Those are hard numbers to parse out.
Iowa State again has the smallest athletic budget in the Big 12, yet is fourth or fifth best in performance. Nice job all around. That kind of result is all we can ask for.
My only quibble is the "Cash Spent per football win" formula only focused on one year being too short. One good or bad year skews the results too much. I would prefer a 3 or 5 year horizon to get a clearer view of things.
The big surprise? Iowa has the fourth biggest budget in the Big 10, yet is last in the league for performance the last two years. Ouch.
Sunday, July 21, 2013
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Long Fall
If you follow the links for Iowa and Iowa State, you will find that at the moment both teams combine to be favored in exactly one conference game, Kansas over ISU in Ames.
Ouch.
We Clonies are used to the perpetual underdog role. That is a new experience for fans in Iowa City. Another 2-6 or worse year- I hear talk of 0-8 being a real possibility- and things will get real ugly for Coach-For-Life Kirk.
The goal for the '13 Cyclones: Continue the forward momentum, because there isn't much in Iowa City.
Ouch.
We Clonies are used to the perpetual underdog role. That is a new experience for fans in Iowa City. Another 2-6 or worse year- I hear talk of 0-8 being a real possibility- and things will get real ugly for Coach-For-Life Kirk.
The goal for the '13 Cyclones: Continue the forward momentum, because there isn't much in Iowa City.
Friday, May 24, 2013
The Cyclone Fan's White Whale
The South Endzone Project rears its head again.
I understand that lots of Cyclone fans feel that as long as Trice a sort-of-open south end zone it will have a "second tier" look to it. But right now Iowa State is a second tier football program! Playing not-quite-.500-football doesn't justify a $50 million dollar upgrade.
But let's play what if from a business viewpoint: $50 million would replace 5000 current end zone and hillside seats and add, best case, 10,000 new seats. Dream scenario, $50 per seat for 6 games equals $4.5 Million per season, giving you a payoff of roughly 12 years. But that's best case scenario.
As it stands now, end zone seats go for ~$30 on a season ticket. Hillsides are ~$20. Do you think all those fans are going to suddenly jump to $50 for a high end zone seat? Nope. They will have to be heavily discounted, probably in that $20-$30 range. Half the revenue means double the payback period. 25 years on a project? No. Way. It just doesn't pencil out.
Add in that the number of visitor tickets has dropped dramatically with Nebraska and Mizzou out of the league (not that Mizzou fans travel, but they could have), and the project gets even harder to pull off. I know, luxury suites could be added to drive some revenue, but how much can you charge a high-roller for a lousy view? The article is right- unless someone donates $10+ million for the project, the South Bowl will remain a pipe dream.
Not that it wouldn't be cool and help our Cyclones look First Tier- but they have to win a lot of games before that will become a reality.
I understand that lots of Cyclone fans feel that as long as Trice a sort-of-open south end zone it will have a "second tier" look to it. But right now Iowa State is a second tier football program! Playing not-quite-.500-football doesn't justify a $50 million dollar upgrade.
But let's play what if from a business viewpoint: $50 million would replace 5000 current end zone and hillside seats and add, best case, 10,000 new seats. Dream scenario, $50 per seat for 6 games equals $4.5 Million per season, giving you a payoff of roughly 12 years. But that's best case scenario.
As it stands now, end zone seats go for ~$30 on a season ticket. Hillsides are ~$20. Do you think all those fans are going to suddenly jump to $50 for a high end zone seat? Nope. They will have to be heavily discounted, probably in that $20-$30 range. Half the revenue means double the payback period. 25 years on a project? No. Way. It just doesn't pencil out.
Add in that the number of visitor tickets has dropped dramatically with Nebraska and Mizzou out of the league (not that Mizzou fans travel, but they could have), and the project gets even harder to pull off. I know, luxury suites could be added to drive some revenue, but how much can you charge a high-roller for a lousy view? The article is right- unless someone donates $10+ million for the project, the South Bowl will remain a pipe dream.
Not that it wouldn't be cool and help our Cyclones look First Tier- but they have to win a lot of games before that will become a reality.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
The Out Iowa City Has Always Wanted
Looks like SUI can finally drop Ames Community College off of its schedule.
They've been looking for an excuse since '98. Now they have one. It was fun while it lasted.
They've been looking for an excuse since '98. Now they have one. It was fun while it lasted.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Forecast: Fugly
Check out the quote in this article:
In other words, ND would prefer to the final score look like a halftime total for a typical ISU game.
That's everything wrong with college basketball.
I expect the game to be painful to watch. Lots of fouls, ND mugging ISU at every opportunity, and as a result, clean open looks will be hard to find. It's tough to get open when the defender is holding your arm.
The good news is that if ISU can get a ~10 point lead, ND will have to do things they don't like. Advantage: ISU. Score early, score often. First team to 60 probably wins.
“We have had games where we’ve held teams to 40, 50 points,” Irish forward Pat Connaughton said. “I think that’s what we want to do in order to come out with this win.”
In other words, ND would prefer to the final score look like a halftime total for a typical ISU game.
That's everything wrong with college basketball.
I expect the game to be painful to watch. Lots of fouls, ND mugging ISU at every opportunity, and as a result, clean open looks will be hard to find. It's tough to get open when the defender is holding your arm.
The good news is that if ISU can get a ~10 point lead, ND will have to do things they don't like. Advantage: ISU. Score early, score often. First team to 60 probably wins.
Saturday, March 09, 2013
Best and Worst
Iowa State's win in Morgantown had the two extremes of Cyclone basketball. The first half was brilliant- free flow on offense, solid defense, a 44-20 halftime lead. But the second half had a 16 minute stretch that was horrid- 14 turnovers, bad rushed shots, and giving up 54 (!) points.
But the Cyclones made enough shots down the stretch to pull out the win, and finish 3-6 on the road. Not great but respectable.
Watching that game confirms that in the B12 and NCAA tourneys ISU can beat anyone- and can lose to anyone, too. Fasten your seat belts.
But the Cyclones made enough shots down the stretch to pull out the win, and finish 3-6 on the road. Not great but respectable.
Watching that game confirms that in the B12 and NCAA tourneys ISU can beat anyone- and can lose to anyone, too. Fasten your seat belts.
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Ticket: Punched Take II
Now they are really in. A win in Morgantown and a few in KC will go a long way towards improving on a 12 seed. The Cyclones found themselves in the same situation last year- win in KC and avoid the dreaded 8/9 game. They failed. Learn from the past.
The win over Okie State was exhibit A of how much better the Cyclones do when they simply hustle and play with energy. The game got tight when it turned into Afternoon At The Y midway through the second half. Quick shots, lazy D, the whole bit.
The examples of success and failure are pretty stark.
The win over Okie State was exhibit A of how much better the Cyclones do when they simply hustle and play with energy. The game got tight when it turned into Afternoon At The Y midway through the second half. Quick shots, lazy D, the whole bit.
The examples of success and failure are pretty stark.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Ticket: Punched
Solid road win? Check.
5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.
Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.
With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.
5 Top 25 recruiting classes in a row and you find yourself in 6th place on the NCAA bubble? Fail. Imagine what any of the other B12 coaches would do with Baylor's talent. Scary.
Win three of five down the stretch (Tech, KU and OSU at home, roadies at OU and WVU) and ISU should be the 3 or 4 seed in the B12 tourney and dodge the first round game on Thursday. Wins in KC help seeding in the NCAAs.
With five players averaging 9 points per game, they are a match-up nightmare. Commence havoc.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
16 of 20
In Iowa State's three most crushing road losses, the opponent (Kansas, Okie State, Texas) scored on 16 of their 20 possessions in the last 3 minutes of regulation. ISU held the lead at that 3 minute mark of each of those games. Full details at the Ames Trib.
One more stop in each game and ISU probably gets the win.
The Cyclones do a nice job of getting ahead with their offense, and don't need to turn into a knock 'em sock 'em, grind it out of defensive team that then struggles to score 50 each night. But a few key stops will go a long way.
Their trip to Waco is a good place to start. the Bears came from way behind to almost beat OU at home. They aren't dead until the buzzer, boys.
One more stop in each game and ISU probably gets the win.
The Cyclones do a nice job of getting ahead with their offense, and don't need to turn into a knock 'em sock 'em, grind it out of defensive team that then struggles to score 50 each night. But a few key stops will go a long way.
Their trip to Waco is a good place to start. the Bears came from way behind to almost beat OU at home. They aren't dead until the buzzer, boys.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Playoff Mode
It's an old cliche, but the Cyclones may as well get into a playoff mindset right now. Losses can be fatal to their NCAA hopes.
Six games remain- all are winnable, and all are also losable. But going 4-2 or 5-1 will get them a solid seed in both Kansas City and the NCAAs. But that kind of finish means getting over their road funk in a hurry. They have been on the cusp of several road wins, but can't make the stop they need. At some point the averages will even out and you will get the break you need. Just hurry.
Six games remain- all are winnable, and all are also losable. But going 4-2 or 5-1 will get them a solid seed in both Kansas City and the NCAAs. But that kind of finish means getting over their road funk in a hurry. They have been on the cusp of several road wins, but can't make the stop they need. At some point the averages will even out and you will get the break you need. Just hurry.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Who you are, who you want to be
With a few games to go there are two groups of teams in the Big 12: five at the top who are pretty good, and five at the bottom just trying to keep up.
It's discouraging to not play very well against OU and Texas, but those teams will blow o it Iowa State when they set their minds to it. Given the financial gulf between The Big Boys and ISU, that should be expected.
But the five schools in the bottom half of this years league are financial peers of the Cyclones, and they are who ISU is really competing against year in and year out. This year, the Cyclones could finish at the top of the bottom half. They already have wins against Baylor and TCU with Kansas and West Virginia on deck. Wins against both not only earns a decent bowl trip, it also solidifies their place at the front of the Small Money league within the Big 12.
But you have to win or you just continue being viewed as a bottom feeder.
It's discouraging to not play very well against OU and Texas, but those teams will blow o it Iowa State when they set their minds to it. Given the financial gulf between The Big Boys and ISU, that should be expected.
But the five schools in the bottom half of this years league are financial peers of the Cyclones, and they are who ISU is really competing against year in and year out. This year, the Cyclones could finish at the top of the bottom half. They already have wins against Baylor and TCU with Kansas and West Virginia on deck. Wins against both not only earns a decent bowl trip, it also solidifies their place at the front of the Small Money league within the Big 12.
But you have to win or you just continue being viewed as a bottom feeder.
Sunday, October 07, 2012
Earning It
Even the new guy in the league doesn't respect the Cyclones:
Welcome to the big time. If you don't show up to play the Chump, you become the Chump. Chump.
TCU violated one of the primary rules of being a "good" Big 12 team -- do not lose at home against Iowa State. Ever.
Welcome to the big time. If you don't show up to play the Chump, you become the Chump. Chump.
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Trends
As if showing your fan base that Cyclone Football is trending in the right direction to sell more tickets, the implosion in Iowa City presents a big opportunity to position themselves as The Big Show in the state. Its a lot easier to tag one program as Troubled or Loser when there is a big difference between the two. Contrast helps.
You won't win every in-state or head-to-head recruiting battle with SUI, but winning one or two in each class adds up over time. Hayden understood the importance of dominating ISU. It's time to turnt he tables.
You won't win every in-state or head-to-head recruiting battle with SUI, but winning one or two in each class adds up over time. Hayden understood the importance of dominating ISU. It's time to turnt he tables.
Wednesday, September 05, 2012
Rivals
Attitudes like this are why Iowa State fans relish beating Iowa so much.
There may never be an ISU win over Iowa that isn't considered an upset, because Iowa is the Best Football Program Without A National Title (in their minds).
There may never be an ISU win over Iowa that isn't considered an upset, because Iowa is the Best Football Program Without A National Title (in their minds).
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Numbers Game
An excellent football article in the New York Times of all places. Looking ahead at what Penn State faces, Iowa State's plight in the 80's was brought forth as an example of what happens when your numbers get cut.
I was a student in Ames during the Walden years, and I didn't realize at the time how big the numbers gap was between ISU and, well, everyone else. It doesn't bode well for PSU in the near term.
But those ISU teams hung around better than they should have, and scratched together a 6-5 season in 1990. But being down 20 or 30 players makes the 1990 win in Norman and Marv Seiler's win over Nebraska even more remarkable. Plucky doesn't begin to describe those teams.
I was a student in Ames during the Walden years, and I didn't realize at the time how big the numbers gap was between ISU and, well, everyone else. It doesn't bode well for PSU in the near term.
But those ISU teams hung around better than they should have, and scratched together a 6-5 season in 1990. But being down 20 or 30 players makes the 1990 win in Norman and Marv Seiler's win over Nebraska even more remarkable. Plucky doesn't begin to describe those teams.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Penn State Fan, A Peek Into Your New World
Hello Penn State fan. Let me give you a brief tour of your new world as a fan.
Hopefully you are entering the Acceptance phase of the news that your football program has been put in an induced coma. That will make things easier. It's going to be a struggle for a while. You are going to have to reset your view of the world for a few years until the numbers come back to even and you get some momentum back.
The good news- you have massive infrastructure. Stadiums that hold 100K+ are pretty rare. That's a nice revenue-generating asset to have in your pocket. You have a large fan base that is willing to buy tickets. When the time is right for the bandwagon to get crowded again, you will be flush with cash.
You already know most of the bad. It will be a tough sell to get four and five star recruits to come in for awhile. You will have to do more with less. Start by bringing in tough kids who want to play with a chip on their shoulders, for whom knocking off an Ohio State or Michigan once in a while will be enough of a reward. That's the kind of thing you will need to sell.
Little secret- those kind of players are fun to root for. Seeing kids outwork and outhustle the five-star recruits is a hoot. When they beat a team with a talent advantage, you will celebrate like you've never celebrated before. Because for a while it will be different.
You will now be happy after every single win, no matter how lowly the opponent. It will be a long time before you are relieved you didn't lose. Admit it- you felt that way at least four times a season. "Good thing we didn't lose to THAT team!"
Here's another bit of good news- you are about to find out who the real fans are, and who were going to games for the good time. The next few years will be the attendance nadir for Penn State, but you can look around and see who is in it for better or worse.
This might be hard, but reset yourself mentally. Prepare to go 0-12 this year. If you end up 4-8 with some close losses, the season will feel like a success. That is your new reality. Someday you will be able to say "I was a fan in '12 when nobody else would be."
Hopefully you are entering the Acceptance phase of the news that your football program has been put in an induced coma. That will make things easier. It's going to be a struggle for a while. You are going to have to reset your view of the world for a few years until the numbers come back to even and you get some momentum back.
The good news- you have massive infrastructure. Stadiums that hold 100K+ are pretty rare. That's a nice revenue-generating asset to have in your pocket. You have a large fan base that is willing to buy tickets. When the time is right for the bandwagon to get crowded again, you will be flush with cash.
You already know most of the bad. It will be a tough sell to get four and five star recruits to come in for awhile. You will have to do more with less. Start by bringing in tough kids who want to play with a chip on their shoulders, for whom knocking off an Ohio State or Michigan once in a while will be enough of a reward. That's the kind of thing you will need to sell.
Little secret- those kind of players are fun to root for. Seeing kids outwork and outhustle the five-star recruits is a hoot. When they beat a team with a talent advantage, you will celebrate like you've never celebrated before. Because for a while it will be different.
You will now be happy after every single win, no matter how lowly the opponent. It will be a long time before you are relieved you didn't lose. Admit it- you felt that way at least four times a season. "Good thing we didn't lose to THAT team!"
Here's another bit of good news- you are about to find out who the real fans are, and who were going to games for the good time. The next few years will be the attendance nadir for Penn State, but you can look around and see who is in it for better or worse.
This might be hard, but reset yourself mentally. Prepare to go 0-12 this year. If you end up 4-8 with some close losses, the season will feel like a success. That is your new reality. Someday you will be able to say "I was a fan in '12 when nobody else would be."
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Change
The most striking thing about this poll? Iowa isn't on it.
It's a real change that the press doesn't consider the GoBlas one of the five best team Iowa State will play this year. That can't sit well in IC.
Or the press doesn't think ISU can win in Kinnick. I can't say I blame them.
It's a real change that the press doesn't consider the GoBlas one of the five best team Iowa State will play this year. That can't sit well in IC.
Or the press doesn't think ISU can win in Kinnick. I can't say I blame them.
Thursday, July 05, 2012
Tough Out
As long as Iowa State has the smallest athletic budget in the league, our expectations, especially in football, have to be tempered. Anything above 4 wins has to be considered a success.
Personally, I'm happy if the Cyclones are viewed by the rest of the league as that team they will probably beat, but it will be a damn struggle, especially in Ames.
I think Dave Uebben has a "Punches above their weight" view that is about right.
Personally, I'm happy if the Cyclones are viewed by the rest of the league as that team they will probably beat, but it will be a damn struggle, especially in Ames.
I think Dave Uebben has a "Punches above their weight" view that is about right.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
How Does Iowa State WIn?
The lead of the Pre-Snap Read preview encapsulates the football world's view of Iowa State: How do they win? The damning number is this: Texas signed more 4-star recruits this winter than Iowa State has in 10 years. Combined.
It's numbers like that that pop in my head when more enthusiastic Cyclone fans start talking consistent winning and better bowl games. The raw numbers make it very, very hard.
The raw numbers also make the upset wins all the more special.
It's numbers like that that pop in my head when more enthusiastic Cyclone fans start talking consistent winning and better bowl games. The raw numbers make it very, very hard.
The raw numbers also make the upset wins all the more special.
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Promise
New promise from this site- from now on I only link to B12 football projections that have Iowa State somewhere other than last or next-to-last.
No matter how well the Cyclones do in football, it's always assumed to be a fluke.
No matter how well the Cyclones do in football, it's always assumed to be a fluke.
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