Changes

 Four games, four scenarios that Cyclone football often messes up, yet four wins on the board.

This team has made winning plays in each game, but has also avoided the deadly mistake. This is- fun? Yes, fun.

This week ISU welcomes a struggling Baylor program. Two years ago, Baylor was the defending league champs, who pushed the Cyclones around in a wasn’t-as-close-as-the-margin 7 point win. 

Winning plays while avoiding killer mistakes is a great combination. A win will mean 5-0 for the first time since 1980. According to this site that team finished 6-5. Ooof.

If you are dreaming big, the best start ever was 1938 at 7-0, but Denver, Luther, Marquette and Drake were on the schedule.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Struggles

A walk through Houston's box scores is a head scratcher.

The Cougars had every opportunity to win in Norman, but couldn't. Run. The. Ball. Their drive chart? 

12-63 FG

3-8 Punt

3-1 Punt

5-17 Punt

3-9 Punt

6-55 FG

4-75 TD

12-20 Punt

4 (-4) INT

7-24 Punt

1 (-1) Safety

5-42 End of game

Houston turns around and blows out Rice. Nice rebound.

They then go to Cincinnati has does this:

3-0 INT

9-13 Punt

10-77 FGA

3 (-2) Punt

6-21 Punt

5-64 Fumble

10-30 Downs

6-45 Fumble

3-0 Punt

Ouch.

On the flip side, the 'Natti was the picture of efficiency:

3-7 Punt

3-45 TD

4-80 TD

12-80 TD

6-25 FG

1-0 Half

8-89 TD

3 (-3) Punt

15-52 FG

4-11 Punt

I don't know which Houston defense we will see Saturday- the one from Norman and Rice, or the one from UNLV and Cincy- but I suspect the Iowa State defense will be able to disrupt the Houston offense. Just do your jobs, get some points on the board, and win a football game.

 

The surprise was the lack of a surprise

 Saturday was a fun day at Trice, but it was also a touch disorienting.

We have all seen Cyclone teams find ways to keep a September game against a Mid-Major opponent close, and even gift-wrap a loss for the fan base. We expect white-knuckle afternoons.

The win over Arkansas State was anything but dramatic. Advantages were pressed, bench players got extra reps, and the game was clearly in hand at 14-0 in the first quarter.

Watching an efficient blowout win was fun, especially against an opponent that has given other teams difficulties (cough*Michigan*cough). Now that we have entered the Could Win Any Game/Could Lose Any Game portion of the schedule, it was exciting to watch a game that could have been a roller coaster turn into a entertaining show instead.

The other side of the collapse

As a fan base that as been on the losing side of second half collapses, it's great to be on the winning side of one. Pulling it off in Iowa City is a nice touch.

Winning 4 of 6 at Kinnick is also insane, considering ISU has lost every El Assico in Ames since 2011. Hate it when that happens.

Enjoy your glass of GoBla tears.

The Usual

 Iowa State will outgain and outplay SUI, but will make a creative mistake that will hand the game to the GoBlas. 

Just like every year. 

16-13 SUI. 

Looks

 New B12 member Arizona State looked good in Gold/Maroon/Gold against Wyoming:

Minnesota had fun with a Maroon/Gold/Maroon combo:

Southern Cal won in their always classic kit:

Iowa State broke out new jerseys to go with their favorite white pants:

Wait, we are being told that's Rutgers. Here's Iowa State:

Sorry, we saw Red/White and just assumed. Is this Iowa State?

Still can't tell the difference, but we are stuck with the Rutgers-inspired Red/White/Black scheme for the next 5 years.

A missed opportunity.

Steps

Another season opener, another underwhelming result, another typical September game for the CMC regime.

The start couldn't have been better. Two deep balls against a defence that was stacking the box is to be applauded. Bravo.

The offense was a little herky-jerky, but we suspect UND was determined not to lose the game on the ground. The offensive line isn't ready to win situations like that.

But enough questions remain on defense and the offensive line to limit the upside of this group. A solid but uninspiring squad. 7 wins is still our guess.

It's wild that CMC has 5 wins against OU and Texa$ combined, but only 1 against the GoBlas.

Our Cyclone nutcup stands ready to help witness another new and awful way to lose to SUI. Have plenty of your favorite beverage on stand by. It will be needed.

Visions

 2024 Iowa State football forecast:

Probable wins: North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, Cincy

Probable losses: Utah, Kansas, Kansas State

Guaranteed self-inflicted loss: SUI

Random coulda-shoulda-won-but-didn't-play-well loss: Pick one from: West Virginia, Central Florida, Tech.

That brings us to 7-5. We hope its better than that, but this program still has wiiiiiide variance between its best and worst games. Nothing can be assumed. More than 3 wins that aren't white-knuckle rides to the end would be a surprise.

Any playoff talk is madness without an 8-0 start. Save your breath. Enjoy the ride.

Best Trice Wins Seen In Person

A warm summer night is the perfect time to jump on the Cyclone Twitter trending topic: 5 Best Jack Trice Games you saw in person.

Here is ours in order of witness:

1981 Iowa State 23 SUI 12 

Iowa's first game in Ames since 1934. (When the series resumed in 1977, SUI required the Cyclones to drive to Iowa City four times before they would come to Ames. Jerks.) Ames was electric. Hillside seats on the NW corner were Nirvana for a group of teenage Cyclone fans. A core memory.

1992 Iowa State 19 Nebraska 10 (aka the Marv Seiler Game) 

The unexpected wins are the most fun. An 8-1 Cornhusker team came to Ames on a roll, but couldn't get anything together against a pesky Cyclone defense. Marv only needed on big play to ice the win. You could hear the shock in Pete Taylor's voice on the radio call.

2005 Iowa State 23, SUI 3

An SUI squad ranked #8 came into Ames and almost got shut out by the Cyclones. The game essentially ended in the 2nd quarter when an GoBla QB concussed himself by tackling a safety after an INT. Perhaps ISU's most dominant win over SUI behind the 31-0 win in 1978. A fun day.

2017 Iowa State 14 TCU 7

A white-knuckle ride for the resurgent Cyclones over #4 TCU. 5-2, and on a 3 - game wining streak, the Cyclones went up 14-0 in the first half. TCU returned the 2nd half kickoff for a TD, but ISU held the Frogs to 157 yards and no points on their last 7 possessions, including 3 turnovers to seal the win. ISU broke a 7 game win streak for TCU, became bowl eligible in CMC's 2nd season, and moved into a tie for first place in the Big 12. It was a hug-random-strangers kind of win. The win in Norman wasn't a fluke.

2018 ISU 42 KSU 38

Down 17 with 12:27 left in the 4th, Brock Purdy led three scoring drives to end Bill Snyder's coaching career. The win tied ISU's biggest 4th quarter comeback win in it's history. While a win over #6 West Virginia a month earlier was a dominant win, sending Snyder out the way they did was more satisfying.

Missed opportunities

 The Gophers revamped their football uniforms for 2024, and they are a big upgrade:

Lots of Gold, no white numbers. Big improvement.

2023 Home look for reference:

Looking like a maroon Rutgers.

Mizzou continues to have the perfect set:

Full kits of both team colors, a white kit, lots of sharp helmets. Best of all, the stripes on the helmets, jerseys and pants all match. You can mix all three kits. Outstanding.

Our only complaint is the white numbers on the black jerseys, so the grade is only 95/100.

Iowa State, however, is going backwards.

"Hey, Nike- what's your stock look for this season? Great! And remove all the gold you can. We want to look as much like Rutgers as possible."

Aim kinda medium, folks. Kinda medium. Stock is fine.

Prognostication

We at CSJ don't endorse gambling, but we do watch what the bookmakers do. They have money on the lines, so to speak.

Iowa State is at 7.5 football wins for 2024, with the under being the much safer bet.

The rest of the B12 -

Kansas State 9.5

Utah 9.5

Arizona 8.5

Kansas 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

UCF 8.5

Oklahoma State 7.5

TCU 7.5

West Virginia 6.5

Baylor 5.5

Cincy 5.5

Colorado 5.5

Arizona State 4.5

BYU 4.5

Houston 4.5

Iowa State's schedule, in order:

North Dakota (no line)

at TOE 7.5 

Arkansas State (no line)

at Houston 4.5

Baylor 5.5

at West Virginia 6.5

UCF 8.5

Texas Tech 8.5

at Kansas (Arrowhead) 8.5

Cincy 5.5

at Utah 9.5

Kansas State 9.5

Holy backloaded schedule, Batman. 

It is easy to see how Vegas arrived at the 7.5 number. Assume losses to the four teams with futures of 8.5 or above and the annual rake stepping that is the game against the GoBlas may preserve or ruin your ticket. Yikes. 

The way-to-early ranking of the games by difficulty:

North Dakota

Arkansas State

Cincy

Baylor

at Houston

(huge gap)

at West Virginia

UCF

Tech

at Kansas (Arrowhead)

Kansas State

at TOE (probable score of 3-0 either way)

at Utah

Hitting the over against that schedule will be a big success. The league is going to be entertaining as heck. Grab the popcorn.

Uniform chat on a silly day

 So. 

Athletics tweeted this image out on April Fool's Day:

It was part of this tweet:

We know, it's AFD, but let's play a long that it's real.

In our opinion, it's a step backwards.

If anything, it further relegates Gold to an accent color only. Are we headed back to the early McCarney era?

Basically cardinal and white. Very Cheifs-like. I'm told some schools have found big uniform success copying wining NFL programs, so I understand the urge.

If we are going to abandon Gold in the football program, so it goes. At least the sleeve stripes will seem intentional. The recent jersey stripes were just- there. If you saw them at all.

When you use Gold as a secondary color rather than an accent, you can do things like this beaut from 1979:

The gold numbers work with the pants, the cardinal helmets work with the jerseys. The road combo was great, too.

Bringing back Gold would put this back on the table:

Or this:

(Still the best ISU look in our lifetimes. Full Stop.)

Two great road looks, too.

For your consideration- Gold helmet, Cardinal jersey (in this example, maroon), Gold numbers, Gold pants:

Isn't that snappy?

I can hear someone yelling in the back: "The Paul Rhoads uniforms looked like USC!"

True.

But the Iowa State uniforms minus Gold look like Indiana.

And Rutgers.

Is that the look you are going for? Really?

Or shall we look like this? 

It's a simple choice. More Gold, not less.

Wins and Losses

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get beat.

We were impressed with the defensive effort from Illinois in the first half, which was uncharacteristic and never let Iowa State find a rhythm or get open looks. Even though the Cyclones cut the 10 point halftime lead to four early in the second half, the game never got closer than 2 points. Opportunities were missed, but Illinois kept making plays. Had they made a decent number of free throws, the game is never closer than 10. So it goes.

The season as a whole was a roaring success. A second place finish in the best league is a quality season. A fantastic run through the B12 tourney was a joy to watch. The standards for the program continue to be raised.

Now we wait to see how the roster shifts in the next three weeks, and look ahead to next season. 

2023-24 was a fantastic ride. Thanks everyone. 

A Habit of 16

 Twice in 3 years.

Fourth in a decade.

Six Iowa State coaches have gone to the Sweet 16. Otz is the only one to do it twice.

We are seeing the rare become common, be we shouldn’t assume this trip is ever to be expected. So many random things can get in the way.

Celebrate. Enjoy the ride. Even if it feels habit forming, you never know when it will return.

The view from the bottom of the hill

Our Cyclones went to Kansas City with a challenging draw- games against teams that had already beaten them. Yet they found a way to win each game comfortably.

Now they face a trip to Omaha with a challenging draw. (A faceplant against Drake would be an appropriate retribution for refusing to play Drake and Northern Iowa.) The draw is what makes the tournament fun- and it can't be truly evaluated beforehand, only after. But if the path is up the rough side of the mountain, so be it.

We have seen our Cyclones win several games even when the offense seemed lost, tired, distracted. Those are good experiences to have in one's pocket, to refer to when you find yourself in a challenging moment. Find a way, and play whoever is next.

Go drink Omaha out of beer.

Closers

A team that pulls a game out of the fire late might have gotten lucky.

The team that finds a way, night after night, might be good.

For the record, the CSJ staff loves the style of basketball that BYU plays. It is the perfect antidote to what Iowa State wants to do on defense. As long as they don’t give the ball away early in the possession, they should find an open 3 or a back cut into the lane. It’s beautiful basketball, and will be a challenge for the Cyclones every night out.

The last 15 minutes were a clinic of defensive adjustments and effort, and wrapped the first perfect home slate since Tinsley was at point. Been a while- but only because of what this team does on defense.

Here’s hoping they continue closing.

Levels

While it was often ugly to watch, our Cyclones played high level basketball in Houston Monday night.

The difficult start could have frazzled the team and resulted in a blowout. Instead, they scored 1.13 points per possession against the best defense in basket across the final 30 minutes. 

Unlike last season, the Cyclones will be able to score on just about every team in the tournament. While the trip to Houston didn’t deliver a win, the Cyclones came home with the confidence that they are ready for any stage.

Game On.

Data

The stats nerds are telling us that teams that make deep runs in March do things that are similar to the things that Iowa State does on the court.

It’s not that they are winning games- it’s that they are winning games by 10, and keeping the opponent at arms length for long stretches. Our Cyclone eyes aren’t used to seeing that.

Lots of doors are still open for this team. Enjoy the ride- it’s been a long wait. 

Difficulty

The average college basketball fan doesn’t realize the difficulty of maintaining a first half lead. A lot can happen in the final 50 or 60 possessions. 

Iowa State answered each of TCU’s runs today, and actually built the lead when Lipsey sat for 10 minutes in the first half. That’s a real luxury. 

A solid home win over a solid Big 12 team. Take care of business when you can.

Capacity

 It appears that when the Cyclones are playing well they can play very, very well, and on the road to boot.

The first 30ish minutes of the game in Austin speaks to upside Iowa State basketball hasn’t had in a while. It’s fun to witness again. 

I love a team that can run a simple pick and roll in crunch time for a dunk. That’s a good tool for the toolbox.

Doors are still open for this team. Here’s hoping we can walk through several of them.