Rumors

It appears that a team of 95 transfers went on the road to a stadium we're told is hard to play in, lead for most of the game, coulda, woulda, shoulda won, earning an epic win over a program with a fanbase that mocked the rebuilding team all summer, and had been predicting an obvious blowout.

We're not so fortunate to carry an all-time legendary win with us back to the office on Monday.

But many questions about this team were answered. The defense, especially the line, held a power running team to only 93 yards. They were quick to the ball and ready to tackle. The offense had moments against a Top 10 defense, but 9 first downs won't be enough going forward.  The passing game will need to advance rapidly. 

But the Jimmy Experiment looks to have potential, and the Cyclones should be in every game this season. When your program doesn't have a Playoff budget like Iowa City, that's all you can hope for. 

Onward. 

Bullies

The Cyclone defense was ready for SEMO.

The Redhawks only had two scoring drives, and they stood out on the drive chart:

3-0

3-3

4-3 Missed FG

3-5

11-75 TD

4-1 downs

2-2 INT 

7-11 

5-15

5-15 

6-15 fumble

7-53 FG

10-25 fumble

4-20 end of game 

The two scoring drives excepted, that's 56 plays for 112 yards and 3 turnovers. Yes, sir.

While a Power 4 team should dominate a good FCS team, we've witnessed plenty of white-knuckle games against FCS teams. It was nice to have a game follow the script.

On to the GoBlas. 

The Jimmy Era Begins

It is completely rational to predict that a team that brought in 70+ players through the portal to be terrible. The 4.5 win total O/U makes sense.

But if the new staff thought the team would be terrible, they would be trying to keep expectations down. This staff has publicly stated they want the defense to have a goal of holding opponents to 14 points or fewer this season. Not someday, but now. For context, only 5 teams gave up 14 points or fewer. 25 teams gave up 20 or less. The Haycock defense that frustrated a big swath of the Iowa State fan base gave up 20.17 last year. 

Challenging your team to average 14 when they are more likely to give up 40 will only bring misery to the team and fan base.

If the staff thinks they can keep teams to 20-ish points on average, the season shouldn't be terrible. 

Add in QB Jaylen Raynor, who gave the Cyclones fits the last two seasons, and the Iowa State offense should be able to chug out first downs at a minimum.

Looking at the schedule and the estimated win totals, ISU should win 2 in September (SEMO and Bowling Green), will be serious underdogs in 5 games (at TOE, Utah, at BYU, at Arizona, Kansas State), which leaves 5 coin flip games: WVU, OSU, at Baylor, Cincy, at UCF. Win 3 coin flips and pull one true upset and you are 6-6, get a bowl trip with extra practices and some momentum into '27.

Or nothing works on offense and ISU loses a bunch of 17-10 games to end 3-9 or 4-8. We've seen the "turnover the whole roster" plan not work at other places. A disaster is totally in the cards. 

In the end, how the team loses will be as important as how much the team wins. A losing season can still have a positive vibe, even in modern "Playoff or Bust" football.  

Here's hoping we are in a collective good mood on November 29th.  

Stunning

After our concerns about meeting expectations, our Cyclones demolish an over-matched Tennessee State team and disassemble a talented and athletic Kentucky team the Did. Not. Like. Ball. Pressure.

A first time viewer of Iowa State would not have guessed they were missing an All-American in how the team went after UK over the last 32 minutes.

Big 12 teams have deep game plans against the Cyclones, and they are sometimes successful. But the cliche is true- its a hard style to prepare for in practice. If the ball pressure and trapping can remain on point, second halves will hopefully continue to swing the Cyclones way.

Enjoy the ride, everyone. 

Now Comes The Hard Part

Meeting expectations is far more difficult that setting expectations.

This Iowa State squad has the tools to beat any team on any night- but your game has to be a little bit better than the other guy. If every player can have an average (for them) night each game, they can win most games. Raise everyone's game a notch and nobody has to be the hero. Above average will be enough.

But nobody can have a bad night, because it takes away your margin for error. Everyone else has to be A LOT BETTER. And that's hard to do on cue.

Win more possessions and enjoy the ride.

Epic

We just witnessed this most incredible back-to-back games in the storied, wacky history of Hilton Coliseum. 

First game: Bully a solid Kansas team, which blew you out a month earlier, on Saturday.  

Second game: Play a high-level, back and forth game with Houston, owners of a 50-4 record since joining the league. Lead at halftime, then fall behind 10 on a barrage of 3s and your own missed free-throws.

Straight from Central Casting enters a 17-4 run over the last 7 minutes to end the game. Winner. Drive home safely. 

Just find a way. Savor this weekend, friends.  

 

Creativity

The Fighting Scott Drews are always a tough out. Every player is 6'9" with a 9 foot wingspan, they tip a lot of passes and are relentless rebounders. You seldom get comfortable on offense. Even open shots lack rhythm.

Baylor's visit to Ames fit that script, yet the Cyclones built a lead going into the under 4 timeout. The Prevent Offense was great on running clock, but bad on scoring and turnovers, which brought the Bears back to the doorstep, yet the Cyclones survived. 

Sometimes you run downhill. Sometimes you grind. Wins count the same. Onward.  

Rarified Air

The Cyclones last four games have been blowout wins over team that Iowa State is just better than. The back half of the league schedule is much tougher than the front. 

The staff here at CSJ are struggling to find a basketball comp for the level of play we have seen over the last two weeks. Scoring at will on the offensive end, and holding teams well below their normal averages is rare. The best Tinsley/Fizer teams could play this way for a game or two, but not four in a row. 

Enjoy the ride, because this a special time. 

Nuance

The difference between listless and winning Cyclone basketball appears to be little things: the tempo of ball movement, anticipating defensive rotations, trapping at unexpected moments, hands in passing lanes, and finishing at the rim.

A triple-double from Mr. Jefferson always helps. What a talent. 

Good to have the winning formula back. Onward. 

Review

 The August power rankings of the B12, and the end of year finish:

 

Kansas State  -  Tech

Arizona State  -  Utah

Iowa State  -  BYU  

BYU  -  TCU

TCU  -  Iowa State

Baylor  -  Arizona

Tech  -  Houston

Utah  -  Arizona State

Colorado  -  Kansas State

Kansas  -  Cincy

Cincy  -  Kansas

UCF  -  Baylor

WVU  -  UCF

OSU  -  WVU

Houston  -  Colorado

Arizona  -  OSU

 

While we ISU fans were disappointed in the four game losing streak (the loss in Boulder was the worst B12 loss of the Campbell era) KSU may have been the biggest drop-off from August expectations. Baylor and Colorado have arguments,  but they retained their coaches for next year.

Tech achieved their potential, Arizona made a big jump up, and Houston is on a solid trajectory.

The league remains difficult to project from season to season. Don't bet on spots, kids. 

Admiration

A moment to admire the play of Josh Jefferson.

Iowa State would have probably found a way to best WVU without Jefferson on the floor, but his 10 point, 10 rebound, 10 assist triple-double made the win a lot easier.

 Jefferson's play, especially his passing skill from the high post, really drives the Iowa State offense. They are a very different offensive team when he is on the bench.

Enjoy Jefferson while we have him. His skills are both high level and rare. 

72 Hours

Cyclone fans just exited the most dramatic 72 hours of their fandom.

Wednesday rumors of Penn State interest in Campbell accelerated on Thursday, then when nuclear on Friday as Matt and his staff went into radio silence. By Friday night it was done, and a successor named before CMC had even left the building, literally.

It was a rapid spin from "Why would he want that job?" to "Crap, he took that job."

A gathering we attended Friday night was a wake while awaiting the time of death. The introduction of Jimmy was a green shoot among the sadness.

Basketball brought joy to the somber fan base. The second half demolition of #1 Purdue at Mackey Arena was amazing to watch: A 4 point halftime lead was converted into a 46-27 blowout half. 59% from the field, 7-12 from 3. Winning most of the 50/50 balls, out-rebounding taller, beefier players. Defense that kept Purdue from ever finding a rhythm.

The basketball ceiling is unlimited with that level of defense and shooting. Hopefully the Cyclones can catch some breaks to balance the near term football prospects, which will be a rebuild at best.

Celebrate every win, as you don't knwo how long the good times are going to last. 

Classic Heacock

A cool, windy day in Stillwater. An opponent that is on a 17 game B12 losing streak. Less than 15K semi-interested fans in the stands. But the OSU QB was finding some success throwing the ball, and led a 14-play TD drive just before halftime. A 10-7 lead for Iowa State coming out of halftime.

What does the defense do? Give up 2 field goals and give the offense time to gel. Which is what they do in the second half almost every week. 

OSU's second half:

3-8 punt

6-17 punt

4-3 FG (stated at the ISU 14!)

5-20 INT

3-5 punt

9-33 FG

Up 17-7, ISU turned up the heat and got three key sacks that blew up possessions. Closers.

If you are playing the percentages, the Heacock defense is a safe bet.

Making Shots

Three solid wins in Vegas for different reasons.

Outworked a physical St. John's team to win by one. They shots fell when they needed to fall.

Disrupted a Creighton team that can shoot the ball, but still misses some pieces.

Then came the 60 point second half that discombobulated Syracuse. The defense won the game, but every shot went in for a long stretch. It was amazing basketball to watch. 

This team has the horses to win multiple ways. Buckle up and enjoy the ride. 

Winning Numbers

Carried the ball 50 times for 221 yards.

9 of 16 on third down, and 4 of 5 on 4th down. 

Two touchdowns on 4th down plays.

462 total yards vs. 323.

No turnovers, and an interception to seal the game. 

Only one punt. 

ISU reached the red zone five times, and scored five TDs. 

Kansas reached the red zone four times, but only scored 14 points. 

The best overall game since late September. Win.  

It's Gotta Be The Gold Pants

It was lovely seeing a Cyclone team in gold pants again, even if it was on the road. Apparently a bit of Gold Pant Magic was the slump-buster the program needed.

Passing the ball remains an inconsistent challenge, but the offense found enough connections down the stretch to churn out first downs. A win despite a 160-yard deficit it hard to do, as is the kind of game that ISU is often on the losing end.

Our goals for Cyclone teams has always been the same: get games into the fourth quarter, and win more than half of the games from there. The last three losses all fit this bill, and the win in Fort Worth did two. Sometimes your grinding pays off.

Just keep grinding. 

Running uphill

Another loss, another disappointing game for an offense that seems to be running uphill.

Six trips into the Red Zone, 19 points. Sub-optimal. 

-1.8 YPP. Teams almost never win when getting out gained at that rate.

18-37 for 186 (numbers inflated by the last possession) is not the QB play that Iowa State needs to win games.

The defense was torched for 300 yards of rushing, but only gave up 25 points. 

And yet- Iowa State had the ball in the Red Zone with 35 seconds left. 

The offense moves the ball and generates opportunities to score, but falls apart in the big moments.

Last season, they made plays when they needed to make plays. This year, the offense has reverted to Cyclone football of the past.

For 20 years there was a running joke in the tailgate lots that if the defense can stay below 24 points, Iowa State probably wins, and if the offense can score more than 24 points, the Cyclones probably win. 

under almost any yardstick, the game against ASU was a loss on both sides of the ball. And yet- it was this close to being a slump-buster.  Frustrating. 

Advantage

The list of teams that have come into Trice and had their ground game limited by the ISU defense is long. Those teams then have to hand the ball to their QB and ask him to find a way.

Often, the QB isn't up to the task,  he makes some critical mistakes and the Cyclones win. Bachmeier was up to the task, both passing and throwing.

Most of the 50/50 plays went BYU's way, and a great first half by the ISU offense was wasted. The second half offense was a disaster: 3-and-out; Red Zone settle for a FG; pick six; Red Zone TO on downs; Red Zone INT.

There's plenty of blame to pass around, but the offense absolutely could have overcome Bachmeier's heroics. But BYU also looks like a team that has the winning pixie dust, just as ISU had handfuls of it in '24. 

You just have to keep working your plan, get the percentages on your side, and hope the dice come up 7. 

Numbers

Iowa State has played football against 5 Power 4 teams. The offense is averaging 25.2 ppg. The D: 22 ppg

Opponent,  ISU offensive points scored, opponent defensive scoring avg:

Kansas State,  24, 27

TOE, 16, 18 

Arizona, 39, 24

Cincinnati,  30, 21

Colorado, 17, 31 

 

Opponent, Offensive points scored vs. ISU, opponent offensive avg:

Kansas State,  21, 32

TOE, 13, 29

Arizona, 14, 24

Cincinnati,  38, 31

Colorado, 24, 21

 

The best offensive performance to date was scoring 15 above AZ's average, but the game in Boulder was a big, big miss, scoring 14 under their average.

The defense has been much more consistent, contrary to the opinion of many fans. The GoBlas were held 16 under their average, but Cincy and CU both exceeded theirs. But the losses both required the opponent's offense have better than average days.

The offense has only exceeded the opponents defensive average twice, and the game in Cincy was a loss. 

On the whole, the defense is playing winning football, but the offense is keeping games close and giving the other guy a chance. That's a bad place to be.

Stumbles

Our Cyclones now find themselves owners of a two game losing streak, all on the road. Offensive mistakes are holding the team back.

None of the four road games have been a fun watch offensively. Drives collapse after a false start or dropped pass. Big plays fail to reach the end zone. Red zone trips don’t create enough TDs.

At 2-2 in the Big 12, a return to the title game is unlikely. But a strong finish will require better consistency across each offensive possession, putting less weight on being perfect in the fourth quarter.

There’s always something to be picky about. Enjoy the off week.