Winding down and cranking up

The 2022 football season ended with a thud. A motivated TCU squad overwhelmed our Cyclones, but they had no choice: A 17-14 win would have opened the door for the naysayers to question whether TCU was worthy of the playoffs, and maybe we should give two-loss Alabama another look. Style points mattered. 

Now we wait on staff changes and the comings and going in the transfer portal. Movement is inevitable, and we can only hope to come out on the plus side in the end. Any improvement on the offensive line and special teams and the program is in a good place to compete. 

Few are commenting on TCU's 5-7 record last year, where they only won 3 B12 games and had several blowout losses, including 48-14 in Ames. Teams can turn quickly.

Basketball is all upside, as both teams have post players they are adapting to. Each looked good in Oregon and showed they can compete with top flight teams. Offensive continuity will be key, especially the men.

Winter should be fun, and hopefully each team has a satisfying finish.

Memorable

 We now have data to confirm how large of a missed opportunity this Cyclone Football season has been, courtesy The Athletic:

From 2017-2021, teams with Top 10 in stop-rate (percentage of defensive drives that end in punts, turnovers or turnovers on downs) win at a .793 rate. Of those 50 teams, 31 won 10 or more games, 23 played for conference titles. 

Of those 50 teams, only one finished with a losing record, and in came in the COVID dominated season of 2020 when Air Force finished 3-3. 

ISU is 4-7.

Stunning. Doing unlikely things in unlikely ways. Playing literally "Exceptional Football".

Upright

 For one week, thanks to a big 4th quarter, Cyclone Football stopped taking on water.

This win certainly goes to the defense. 12 possessions, 8 3-and-outs, a 4-and out, and a 5-and out. 10 possessions, 33 plays, 57 net yards. That will win you a lot of games. Two scores given up on A) end-of-half prevent defense and B) end-of-half prevent defense full of second and third teamers. We can roll with that.

The hair raising part of the day was how long it took ISU to put the game away. On their first 9 possessions, ISU scored 10 points on 53 plays and 153 yards. No bueno. 

The rough-the-kicker penalty after a short ineffective drive was the turning point, to put it mildly. 38 yards on a run by Silas, two yard run, and a 24 yard TD pass to X finished a snappy drive that was surprising in efficiency. 

After another 3-and-out by the defense and another big Silas run leads to the clinching TD. Fun stuff.

The 4th quarter run game breakout was a relief to witness, and perhaps gives the fan base a tiny bit of optimism moving forward. Finding two more wins to gain bowl-eligibility is plausible but no gimme, but its a much better chair than most of us sat in last week.

This is still a relatively young offensive unit, especially with only two seniors in the two-deeps on the line. Perhaps a bit of growth happened Saturday.

Onward.

 

Consistency

Another week, another game that could have been won because of the defense, yet was lost because of the offense.

 The scheme struggles to find repeatable success. Three good plays will be met with a 5 yard loss. The line is often overwhelmed. The passing game can't throw downfield because Dekkers only has 1.5 seconds in the pocket. Everything is hard. Iowa State tends to be the best or second best game by B12 defenses on the season. OU and KU have seen their best games against ISU, and there's no second place.

It is becoming clearer that in the past Iowa State had the luxury of skill players who could overcome mediocre line play. Those days are gone. Either the line has regressed or the skill positions have taken a step back, or both.

With four games to go, it is unlikely Iowa State will either reach a bowl game or escape last place. 

The offense is losing all of the details in the margins.

Numbers

 The close game "Problem" is now the Cyclone's biggest concern. 

Playing well enough to be in position to win and then- not winning. So far in 2022, ISU is 1-3 in games decided by 8 points or less (our definition of "close").

In 2021 they went 2-5.

In 2020 4-2, 2019 2-4, 2018 3-2 and 2017 3-4. In CMC's first year, 2016, only 1-3. 

So over CMC's 83 games at Iowa State, the team has had 39 one-score games. That's a .469 rate.

From 2000-2015, ISU played 209 games. 64 were one-score. The .304 percentage works out to 3.75 close games a year.

The rate for Campbell? 5.57 close games a year, even if ISU doesn't have another close game this season. 

An additional two close games means ISU is playing better football than they did for the 16 seasons of the century. That's good news.

While 16-24 under CMC isn't good, it isn't that far from the average for the B12. 

Since 2016:

Baylor: 13-14

Kansas: 6-9

KSU: 13-17

OU: 19-8

OSU: 19-12

Texa$: 17-19

Tech: 12-14

TCU: 16-12

WVU: 14-13

And for context, TOE: 17-14.

Looking at those numbers, three things jump out: B12 teams not named Kansas have close games at about the same rate. (+/- 1 game/year); OU and OSU need to be studied, as they win at an outlier rate; ISU is only two "close" wins across 6.5 seasons from being "normal".

Cyclone football has improved, and close games are more common. Enjoy being relevant.

The Problem

 In three conference games, Iowa State is averaging 14.7 points. The 24 they scored against Baylor looks like an explosion in hindsight- they have only mustered 11 against Kansas and 9 against Kansas State.

Kansas has given up 42 and 38 in their other two B12 games. 

And yet- all three games were winnable with even slightly better execution- complete a pitch and catch on third down, hit the original hole rather than dancing around the backfield hoping to find a better one, etc. - and the team is 2-1 or 3-0 and all is right with the world.

The good news is there are lots of winnable games ahead on the schedule. But any win will require better performances on the offensive side of the ball or we have to quickly shift our attention to hoops like the Bad Old Days.

Offensive Crisis

Two games in a row where the defense (probably) does enough to win, yet the offense does far too little to win.

If you hold a team to negative yardage for a half of football, you should win. Full stop.

If you hold a team a full 2 yards-per-play and 26 points below their average you should win. Full stop.

If you run 43 plays on the opponents side of the field, call us crazy, but you probably should score more than 11 points.

There are multiple issues on the offensive side of the ball. Hopefully some of them get fixed soon, or we are staying home for the holidays. Considering that all seven remaining games are winnable, failing to find three more wins would be a waste.

Another Turning Point

The first turning point of the season was the trip to Iowa City. Fortunately, the Goblas weren't good enough to take advantage of all of Iowa State's mistakes, and the Cyclones got to bring home the ugly trophy.

Mistakes allowed Baylor to leave Ames with a win.

Given the balance of the B12 this year, a case can be made that every league game will be a turning point. But the trip to Lawrence will determine if our Cyclones will still have a shot at greatness, or will have to hustle to become bowl-eligible. 

Kansas comes in gaining 7.2 YPP (#7 nationally), while ISU is generating only 5 YPP (#50). Granted, ISU has faced two Top 10 defenses in their first four games, but that number is going to have to jump to win games in this league.

On defense the coin flips. ISU yields only 3.7 YPP, good for #7 (but that number is distorted by the terrible Iowa and Ohio offenses), while KU yields 6.3 YPP, #109 in the country, similar to the 6.6 that Ohio yields. 

The ISU defense is by far the best that KU has seen this year. Hopefully they can keep KU in the 20's and not the 40's. 

Which puts the onus on the offense to play a clean game, crank out first downs and score TDs in the Red Zone. If the offense can be consistent and score, this should be a win. 

If the offense makes the same kinds of mistakes the unit made against Iowa and Baylor- hang on to your butts.

Brace Yourself

We didn't realize it when CMC was hired, but a bargain had been struck, a bargain that requires a tax to be paid each year.

The benefit of the bargain? Competent football.

The tax? A loss to the Team Out East every September.

Almost every Cyclone fan would accept the trade in the long term, but the payment of The Tax grows more painful each fall.

It would be different if each loss came in the form of the 2016 beat-down- we would choose not to watch and mow the lawn instead. 

But no- the Cyclones have to outplay the Goblas each year, and then find a new ridiculous way to lose the same game.

It is fair that Iowa State fans might have a glimmer of hope given the results of each team's openers, but do not drink that drink so quickly- we all know how this will end. The exact verse will be different, but the song will remain the same.

Brace yourselves.

Steady as she goes

 While there are plenty of new faces in the two deeps, the CSJ staff remains cautiously optimistic that the improving depth in the roster will reveal a number of new stars for Cyclone fans.

IF- the defense can continue to be salty, holding teams below their season yardage and scoring averages, and- 

IF- the offensive line can give Dekkers enough time to throw downfield rather than running for his life, as Purdy often had to-

- we could have some fun this year.

But we are also big believers if trends. If your offensive line has been ordinary, assume it will continue to be ordinary. Thus, we see 7-5 this year.

Wins against SEMO and Ohio.

Losses against awa and Baylor, since Iowa State is kinda lousy in September.

Wins against Kansas and Kansas State.

Losses in Stillwater and against OU.

A win in Austin (trap game the week after they lose to OU, and their season basically ends)

Wins against West Virgina and Tech in Ames.

The patented we-played-like-crap-on-the-road-loss comes at TCU. 

Review

One team surprised all of college basketball and its own fan base by overachieving for most of the season. They pulled two upsets in The Tournament, and came very close to an Elite Eight appearance, a rare bird in Cyclone basketball.

Another team played high level basketball all season, and came within a game of a share of the B12 title. Their season also ended on the cusp of the Elite Eight, an ending most fans would have been happy with in October.

In retrospect, this was a much more entertaining winter than Cyclone fans expected. Next season could be on the same level and, with some breaks, even more interesting.

Enjoy the good seasons when they appear, as we never know when a drought will return.

Astounding

 Of the scenarios we thought could play out this weekend, the one that happened was the least likely. We were clearly wrong on almost every point of our last post. Happy to be wrong.

The men's defensive effort discombobulated both LSU and Wisconsin on offense. Wisky ended their game Sunday with more turnovers than made baskets. Just masterful. Ugly, but effective.

The difference between Friday and Sunday could not have been more stark. The Friday nail-biter was reversed with a Sunday first-quarter avalanche that Georgia was never able to dig themselves out from under. 

Add in the upset on the other side of the bracket, and Iowa State is staring at undiscovered country of their own.

It's a lot to take in, but its a very fun ride.

Bad matchups

 Someone on the seeding committee was unimpressed with the Cyclones last two weeks.

They struggle against quality defensive teams, especially ones that are physical. Who did they draw in their first two NCAA games? Physical defensive teams, both in the top 25 on defensive metrics. They won't survive the weekend even if they find a way to beat LSU.

(The GoBlas, on the other hand, were all but given a free pass to the Sweet 16. They get to play two teams in the 60's defensively. They will hang 90+ in both games and cruise. Figures)

The women didn't fare much better. Potential second round matchup Georgia looks like Texas on paper, and we know how those games went. Add in the potential rematch against TOE, and I think it will be a short tourney run for the women, too.

As usual, I hope to be proven wrong.

Trends

 As noted by Travis Hines @TravisHines21 at the DMR, the Cyclones had a very healthy 1.29 PPP in the first half against KSU, which may have been the best half of the season. The second half was only .719.

But viewing the second half as a whole doesn’t tell the whole tale. The Cyclones managed 18 points in their first 18 possessions, which would have easily won the game if they could have maintained that pace. They were still up 10 with 9:02 left.

But then the bottom fell out. Over their last 13 possessions only 5 points were scored. That’s a PPP of .38. There were 5 turnovers in the last 13 possessions, which resulted in 5 KSU points and buckets of momentum. 

Frankly, the insane start to the game in some ways doomed the Cyclones. Scoring 13 points in your first 6 possessions (2.16 PPP!) lets your subconscious think the game is over in the first 4 minutes. Holding an early lead like that for the remainder of the game is harder than it looks, especially for a team that has been playing from behind for six weeks.

There was a load of good in that game to build from, but this team can only play one way to generate the points needed to win.

Data

Nearing the halfway mark of the Big 12 season, we should all firmly understand how Otz's crew has to play to have a chance to win in the league. 

Games like TCU? Nope.

Games like Stillwater? Yup.

If this crew is within 5 points with 4 minutes to go, they are going to win their share of games. But they don't get in that position when they chuck 50 jump shots and don't attack the rim. Playing defense like they care goes a long way too.

Plateaus

 We have watched to iowa State-Clemson game now twice, and we are tossing ideas around on how to sum the game, and if it carries symbolism for the Cyclones football program.

Yes, it does.

Any symbolism is in fact simple observation: Iowa State has vastly better talent compared to earlier coaching staffs, and can now play even games against the highest tier of college football teams. Full Stop.

Winning those games is another question. The defense played well enough to win against both Clemson and in 10 of the 13 games this season. That's all you can ask.

The offensive line is able to dominate bad teams (outside of September) but struggles as the opponents improve. That unit may be the most inconsistent of all of the groups, and may- may- be the unit holding the team back. 

We are watching a football program that has a puncher's chance in every game, and barring crazy injuries should be bowl eligible every year. That's an odd thing to write as a group that witnessed the Great Football Walk In The Desert that was the 80's and 90's. 

We will see a lot of new faces next year, but each player that stepped up this year did well. We are on a new football plateau. Enjoy the view.