The Undiscovered Country

 Iowa State Football now stands in territory it has never before known. 

The foundation appears solid enough to expect a bit of a walk around in this new place.

Enjoy the journey, for none of us know how long we will be able to stay. 

Opportunity

 I’m afraid this remarkable season, filled with so many firsts, will haunt me for falling short. 

You were facing a solid but not awesome OU team that you had already beaten in a season where your squad was probably the best in the league. You rally to come close but cant seal the deal, and can’t silence 108 years of demons. So the demons remain. Cute story, but the past dominates the minds of most observers. 

A return trip next season isn’t a crazy thought, but so many variables can swing against you. Coaches leave. Key players get hurt. Team chemistry sours. Fumbles bounce the other way. You don’t get the kick you need. Ask Kansas State. They’ve had one first place finish since 2003, and that was nine seasons ago. Outside of Norman, consistent winning in this league is hard.

Every day is a new opportunity. The big opportunities, the ones that change the trajectories of lives, are rare. Today was one. Opportunity missed.

Finishing before things start

 It’s one thing to pull games out in the second half, it’s another to never let the opponent in the game in the first place. 

To dominate a good team with everything on the line was impressive.

The only thing left to do is to go win the whole dang thing.

Closers

 Three times this season, the Cyclones have found themselves down 10 or more and won. Today’s comeback was the most impressive as everything was on the table.

At the moment when every other Cyclone team failed when it entered the unexplored country of football success, this group found the way. Hold Texas to 7 points across the last three quarters. Grind out a late touchdown after struggling in the red zone all day. Do just enough on a final defensive stand to force the final play that goes your way. Just enough to likely earn a shot at the title.

A shot we’ve been waiting 108 years to arrive. Savor being on the stage.

Smothered

 Kansas State gained 62 yards on their first possession, but were stoned in their four plays inside the 10. 

They then gained 87 yards across the remaining 11 possessions in the game, and failed to score. Their second best possession was 7 plays for 28 yards and a turnover on downs. They gave up 5 3-and-outs. 

While it was fun watching the offense floor it when they had their chances, the job done by the defense was spectacular, and gives Cyclone fans hope in a rather important game in Austin on Friday.

All gas, no brakes.

Fearless

A 3 INT start would have crushed most Cyclone football teams.

This team ran off 21 plays for 210 yards and four touchdowns in a little more than 15 minutes in the second half to overwhelm Baylor.

The defense limited Baylor to 11 plays and 16 yards during the burst. 

The sequence felt like a crazy run for the Hoiball period- coming back from 20 down in 6 minutes to pull a game out of the fire. Good times.

The CSJ staff has spent 40 years doubting that Iowa State could win a conference title because of the difficulty of the task. Now the staff is saying- “Why not?”

Review

 Many are arguing that criticism of a 30 point conference win is nitpicking. I must differ.

Organizations that improve and grow are constantly reviewing and grading themselves, examining both the good and the bad. Sports is one of the few areas of our lives that studies itself as part of the routine. Most businesses and almost all humans are comfortable in their productive ruts. As long as the habits are causing damage, let things be. 

Sports realizes that rapid change is needed as seasons have hard limits, and opportunities are quickly lost. Grumbling about offensive lulls and disastrous special teams play is appropriate, as each week the window  for a championship closes a little more. Given Iowa States lack of football success, simply being in the conversation should have everyone involved on high alert. This kind of opportunity is exceedingly rare in Ames, and one should never assume it will return anytime soon. Life is random. When a door opens you have to be ready to walk through it. 

Being ready requires nitpicking when it feels awkward. Champions nitpick.

Blueprint

 Louisiana defended the Cyclones with man coverage and pocket pressure on every play. The Cyclones never found a rhythm and lost.

Okie State defended with man coverage and pocket pressure. The Cyclones never found a rhythm and lost. 

The word is out on how to slow Purdy and Co. The job ahead will be scheming how to overcome blitz pressure.

Numbers

 Texas Tech's first nine offensive possessions, plays/yards, result:

3/7, punt

3/7, punt

7/34, punt

4/19, punt

2/2, half

5/10, punt

4/9, downs (at ISU 30)

3/7, punt

6/54, downs (at ISU 25)

That’s 38 plays for 149 yards and no points. 3.9 yards per play. 6 punts in 8 possessions, and 2 turnovers on downs. Against a team averaging 37 points per game. Domination.

If your defense can hold teams that far below their averages, you can win a lot of games.

Ignore the last two possessions as the were classic ‘Garbage Time’ results. Iowa State was in a 3 man rush Prevent, and in 19 plays across two drives rushed more than 3 exactly once, resulting in a sack. 

The offense played their part by controlling the ball on long drives, and with the exception of some poor execution in the red zone had a Grade A day. Also winning football.

The biggest test to date is next in Stillwater. The Cyclones are definitely trending in the right direction. 

Unlocked

 CSJ staff spent 15 minutes after the game explaining to the less experienced members of the staff how difficult a nut Oklahoma has been for Iowa State over time. The Sooners don’t beat Iowa State, they thrash them. 56-3 seems like the median score in the series.

But sprinkled within the blowouts were near-misses that were more aggravating than the thumpings. A missed field goal as time expired to settle for a 7-7 tie. A 12-10 home loss on national TV. An onside kick returned for the winning TD. Going 0-3 against John Blake, who went 12-22 as OU coach. An uncalled DPI on a 2 point attempt for the win. And on, and on, and on.

Part of Cyclone fandom never believed that Iowa State could win the league because OU would always be in the way, but the final lock has been turned, and the door to a title path has been opened.

The only thing left is to walk the walk. Forward.

Good to Great?

 The win over TCU was a massive step forward on offense, and suggests potential for greatness as the season moves forward.

Given the choice, the CSJ staff will choose run blocking over pass blocking every time, as run blocking opens up passing options in ways that don’t occur in the reverse. Go big fellas, go.

Give OU a second conference loss and the league breaks wide, wide open. A national audience will be watching to see if Iowa State has become a Big Boy or is still a Plucky Upstart.

The New Big Boys find a way to win. Go get it done.

Never bet against a streak

 B12 game in September under Campbell? That mean the Cyclones lose in Ft. Worth. 

The only surprise will be in the route they take.

A Tradition Like No Other

 One bad game is one bad game. But when a program stumbles out of the gate each September there is a systematic problem in the program. 

Campbell is 6-11 in September. A 52 point win over a Sun Belt team, two wins against Akron, a win against San Jose State, and two wins against UNI- one of which should have been a loss. 

The losses? Four to the GoBlas, five to B12 opponents, a home loss to a solid Louisiana squad, and one to a good UNI team in Campbell’s first game.

Iowa State clearly isn’t using the Kansas State “Three pushovers” scheduling plan, but clearly the training camp process needs to be evaluated. This is one tradition that needs to end. 

Trice Shield

 The "Trice Shield" (my name, not Athletics) should be on every uniform of every sport. It speaks to ideas bigger than football. 

I would make it an official alternate logo for Athletics. Print it on everything. It's simple, versatile, universal. Put it everywhere.

Spinning things back up

 There are uncountable unknowns in our day to day lives in the time of COVID, but I am glad that Big 12 athletics are giving the fall sports season a try. Be cautious, monitor your data, and be prepared to adjust or shut down if things go badly.

Selfishly, I hope our Cyclones have the kind of season that justifies the risks that are being taken.

A record setting night at Hilton

Iowa State's come-from-ahead loss to Florida A&M was a memorable night at Hilton, as it was probably the worst Iowa State basketball loss since 1950, and probably ever. That's weirdly impressive.

My dive into the Massey ratings archives brought back memories of some awful losses, but provided the data to put this loss in perspective. Florida A&M was ranked #315 before the game, a 26 point underdog. The next worst losses I could find from the road was the 1998 loss at Drake (#298), 2004 loss in Waco (#225), and a 1983 loss at Jacksonville (#220).

But a 2017 home loss to Milwaukee (#203) and a 2009 loss to South Dakota State (#231) put the magnitude of this loss in focus: it was an epically bad loss, considering they started he second half up by 12. 6:38 later the game was tied, and the Rattlers played like they were the better team. 

Sitting your talented point guard for a night shouldn't bring the offense to a stop. This is certainly a transition year, but we are far enough into the season that there has to be a Plan B.

Thumped both physically and mentally

Notre Dame exposed our Cyclones deficiencies in the same ways that Iowa, Baylor and Kansas State did: a lack of ability on the lines, and an inability to make the important plays on offense.

The progression of growing a better offensive line is easy to understand, but in Year Four they may be considered behind schedule compared to the turnarounds at other programs.

The failure on important plays and inability to score TDs after crossing the 50 has become A Problem for the offense, and must be fixed quickly or this staff will not reach their goals for the program. ISU scored zero touchdowns on six trips across the 50, while ND was only 2/7 (not including the 86 yard TD run). Score TDs rather than kick field goals and the game is interesting, rather than an emotional rout.

But complaining about a bad bowl performance beats complaining about a 3-9 team. Progress of sorts, but changes need to be made while the bottom half of the league is still in flux. Seize the moment.

Progress Isn't Linear

The hangover from pre-season Kool-Aid can be harsh when your team doesn't live up to pre-season expectations.

Winning close games is more random than anyone wants to admit.

The hard part is being good enough to give yourself a chance against the teams with better talent. By that metric, mission accomplished.

A disappointing 7-5 year is still more fun than any 3-9 year.

Growth

About 24 minutes into this postgame analysis, these two Texas fans state what the rest of the Big12 has thought for a long time:

Every other program seems to develop their talent, while Texas stays static.

In other words, "Nobody does less with more than Texas". (Note to self: That would make a great shirt in all the rival colors.)

Let's compare stats from 2018's 24-10 ISU loss in Austin with this year's 23-21 ISU win in Ames:

Last year, UT was plus 117 yards rushing and 2.1 yards per play over the Cyclones.
This year, ISU was plus 60 rushing and 0.4 YPP, for change of 177 yards on the ground and 2.5 YPP. That's gigantic.

Texas has 46 4 or 5 star athletes on their roster. Iowa State has 4. Yes, 4.

The numbers speak for themselves.

Going For It

For being a conservative guy wanting to play a conservative style, we are watching Coach Campbell grow more aggressive when the moment calls for it. The aggressiveness is calculated, playing the percentages, rather than reckless, and it may pay dividends down the line. As opposing coaches learn that Iowa State is going to press for extra, they will take risks to counter, to add to the lead, and hopefully make mistakes that can be swung in the Cyclones favor.

It is an attitude the football program hasn't had in my memory. It is a pleasant change.

Three winnable games left on the slate, three games that will determine how fans view the season as a whole.

Seize the moment, and go for it.