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The win against Cincy fit the formula when Iowa State wins. 

After the opening TD, Cincy went:

4 plays/4 yards Punt

8/59 FG

3/7 Punt

6/7 Punt

3/0 Punt

1/-2 End of half

8/62 Fumble

4/18 Punt

All those punts game the ISU offense a chance to find its legs. They found their rhythm when the game needed to be won and delivered two beautiful drives.

15/68 7:33 and a nifty improve on a high snap by Rocco, followed by 7/71 (!) and 27 yard TD on 4th down to close the game out.

Watching both units close the game properly was fun, and keeps the door open for bigger opportunities the next two weeks.

Good job, everyone. 

Burnt

The game against KU at Arrowhead started well.

A 99 yard drive for a TD on the first possession had so many aspects that last weeks offensive performance did not. Plays of 4, 9, 10, 15, (15PI),  15, 6 & 27 got our hopes up.

The the KU offense, brilliantly designed, put on a 28-3 run while making the defense look silly. Lots of uncovered receivers, running plays with little resistance, and soon KU was running downhill. 

The offense perked up in the second half to close the gap, but that was clearly the worst play of the season against a team that had been first class in finding ways to lose.

Perhaps injuries are catching up to the Cyclones, and too many youngsters are carrying too big of a load. Perhaps there is too much tape on the teams strengths and weaknesses. 

Perhaps ISU's luck has just run out. 

Execution

The offense has one goal across the last four games: score touchdowns. 

Finding only two TDs after generating nine (9!) trips past the opponent’s 35 will get you beat every time. 

Some are mad at the Looney Tunes final play- but game was lost in the second and third quarters. Across 6 possessions Tech managed only 21 yards, but State only scored 10 points. They left the door wide open.

ISU’s defense deserved to win; the offense did not. 

A repeat at Arrowhead will result in an even bigger loss. Tighten up, fellas. 

Comparisons

The football world is already greasing the skids to ensure the B12 only receives one bid to the football playoffs.

"The B12 is a weak league" is the leading story, echoed especially loudly by our GoBla neighbors who support the Team Out East (TOE). A little perspective:

Using the Massey Ratings site, we can see rankings for entire conferences as a whole.

SEC 8.36

Big 10 8.10

Big 12 7.95

ACC 7.84

So the B10 is closer to the B12 than the SEC, and the B12 is closer to the ACC than the B10.

But here are the power rankings for the B10 West/Leaders in the past:

2023- 7.58

2022- 7.76

2021- 7.96

2020- 7.89

2019- 7.71

2018- 7.73

2017- 7.85

2016- 7.09

2015- 7.35

2014- 7.07

2013- 6.97

2012- 7.12

2011- 6.94

To summarize: in 13 seasons of the B10 West, 1 year that group had the same rating as the current B12. All the others were worse, often by a bunch.

End of math lesson.

Percentages

Leaving Jack Trice made sense. UCF had just picked up a first down at midfield with only 2:10 left on the clock. The Golden Knights led 35-30. They had a 99% win probability. It made sense to go and get ahead of 61,498 others who would soon be walking to their cars.

CSJ staff has witnessed probably a couple hundred Cyclone games in Trice, but few had as wild an ending as the one the smart people getting to their cars early missed. That ending may be the craziest in Trice history, considering the stakes. Bedlam ensued. But the run continues.

Now a bye week for everyone to pause and take a breath. The last four games are harder on paper than the previous four, but the Cyclones have found different ways to win each game. They are determined problem solvers.

Improved health, especially on defense, may be the ingredient to carry our walk through The Undiscovered Country to the other side.

Enjoy the ride, everyone.

Steady Trip to Morgantown

Every expert was pointing to Iowa State's trip to Morgantown as a trap game, the point where the undefeated run comes to an end. The were right- night game, coming off a big win, theme night with sweet uniforms, all of it.

Iowa State didn't care.

After a TD on the initial drive, WVU's last 7 drives earned 10 points, 7 which came in garbage time.

For the game, the ISU defense gave up 2 points per possession, while the offense generated 3.1. Yes, please.

We repeat ourselves, but the defense will be the key down the stretch. Central Florida has the best rushing offense in the league. (WVU, which had everyone terrified, is fifth.) This game, the newest Big Game, may be won on that side of the ledger.

The crazies Iowa State stat: Opponents have only had 10 trips to the Red Zone on the ISU defense, and 3 of those trips were in Iowa City. 5 other games, 7 Red Zone trips. Crazy.

Enjoy the ride, friends.

Patience

Fans grew restless during the first quarter of the Baylor game, as the Death-Penalty-Dodgers score TD's on their first two possessions. CSJ staff tried to reassure their neighbors that its an unfortunate part of the process- learning what the opponent wants to do, where they think the have an advantage, and then eliminating that path.

The Baylor box score shows the results. After the first two possessions, the DPD's drives were this:

5-16 punt

5-13 punt

8-40 downs

7-65 TD

10-55 INT

3-9 punt

3-6 punt

3-8 punt

44 plays, 212 yards, 4.8 ypp; 13 rushes, 43 yards, 3.3 ypr. 

Once the defense adjusted, Baylor couldn't run effectively, and only earned 7 points on 8 possessions. That'll do.

Granted, a team won't always be able to dig themselves out of a 14-0 hole. Our suspicion is that when the staff believes they are better than the opponent, the first few possessions will be approached cautiously to feel the other team out. Then it go time.

One rake missed. Enjoy the ride.

Don’t step on the rakes

Looking forward, the Cyclones have lots of potential losses ahead if anything other than an A Game is played. 

Baylor has a solid defense, but their offense has been unremarkable. Can ISU keep them off the board? Will the Bears rally around their coach? Or will they fall apart if they fall behind by 14?

Here are the defensive/offensive rankings for the rest of the year:

BU 28/87

WV 106/59

UCF 53/4

TT 124/15

KU 57/68

CN 104/16

UT 20/57

KS 55/43

These numbers will change as we move forward, but if our Cyclones have a memorable season it come from the performance of the defense. 

Here’s hoping.